2022年6月4日 星期六

Dave Lee: Tesla stock down - Elon Musk announces layoffs (Ep. 607)

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1z3pCBf1fFc

[Music]
hey it's dave so this morning we got
some big news elon musk sent an email to
tesla employees saying that tesla's
going to go through some layoffs so
let's take a look at what's going on
here reuters this morning had an
exclusive article says that elon musk
wants to cut 10 of tesla jobs but is
this really an accurate headline see
actually a lot of
articles um this morning actually have
incorrect headlines so reuters
elon musk wants to cut 10 of tesla jobs
cnbc elon must feel super bad about the
economy needs to cut 10 of tesla jobs
cut staff by 10 of reuters um and off of
these negative headlines we have tesla
down eight percent right this morning as
uh recording this video elon musk seems
to have sent two different emails the
first email was to management and the
second email was to everyone at tesla so
according to this first email that us
was seen by reuters this was an email
addressed to the executive or executive
team at tesla it was titled pause all
hiring worldwide and it said that elon
musk has a super bad feeling about the
economy and that tesla needs to cut
about 10 of jobs at the electric car
company so there was a second email and
the second email was addressed to
everyone it had a different title for
the email called headcount reduction so
here's the email that elon sent to
everybody this morning he said tesla
will be reducing a salaried headcount by
10 percent as we have become overstaffed
in many areas note this does not apply
to anyone actually building cars battery
packs or installing solar hourly
headcount will increase elon all right
so this is very different than what the
headlines have said
what elon is saying is that the hourly
workers or factory workers in general
will continue to increase in head count
so tesla is not pausing their growth
plans they've got a ton of people to
hire for austin and berlin and also for
their plans to increase production at
shanghai and fremont so by no means is
tesla slowing down but elon is saying
that they will reduce salaried headcount
by 10
however if you think of salary headcount
that's actually less than half of the
workforce in general because most of
tesla's employees probably are the
hourly or factory workers so overall i
think hourly workers employees will
still rapidly increase and will more
than offset this 10 reduction in
salaried employees by the end of the
year gary black tweeted that his
estimates of tesla's manufacturing
workers are about 58 000 in total so
probably over half of the workforce i
tweeted and i said tesla's overall
headcount will likely increase by year's
end because of new hourly headcount ie
factory workers will increase more than
the reduction of salaried workers i
don't see any change in tesla's rapid
growth plans just tidying house along
the way the reuters article did mention
actually an interesting tidbit that in
2018
musk said tesla would cut 90 of its
workforce as the then loss making
companies struggle to ramp up output of
model 3 electric sedans although data in
its sec filings showed reductions are
more than offset by hiring by year end
so i think this is likely going to be
the case again sure there's a temporary
right decrease
in layoffs happening with salary workers
but overall tesla is going to probably
increase workforce overall um probably
by the end of the year so the question
is why so dramatic right why does tesla
need to really do right these layoffs
why can't tesla just do something less
dramatic less controversial like for
example slow down slow down hiring or
freeze hiring
of salary workers for a certain period
of time i personally look at these
layoffs as elon musk living out this
quote by andy grove which is only the
paranoid survive i think elon is making
tesla a lean mean machine able to
weather any storm elon actually referred
to this andy grove
quote back in november 30th 2021 only
the paranoid survive and yeah i think
this is kind of the attitude that elon
has for a lot of his businesses and this
is what makes elon actually unique in a
lot of ways back in april 20th of 2022
elon replied to homar's catalog
who was saying that tesla's operating
expenses 1.9 billion dollars uh
quarterly and elon says tesla's op x or
operating expenses is embarrassing high
in my opinion so for context elon has
already been thinking that tesla's
operating expenses were quite high or a
little bit bloated so yeah this move
isn't a sudden drastic one it's
something that probably elon has been
thinking about for a while now there are
downsides to layoffs um for example
first people need to find new jobs who
have been laid off they could feel let
down by the company there's also a
one-time severance expense for the
company for those who are laid off also
there could be a misunderstanding by
investors regarding the message that it
sends right because it's kind of unusual
if tesla's going so fast why are they
right laying off workers however i think
elon musk he's not afraid to make the
hard decisions i think one of the big
things is cutting the fat or the
unnecessary parts
even though while you cut the fat and
you try to tie the house you're actually
going to make mistakes and you're going
to upset people meaning tesla's not
going to be perfect to only cut like
let's say 10
of the most kind of undeserving people
there are going to be people mixed into
that right and that's part of the cost
of making hard decisions further i think
this is about maintaining a culture of
exceptional work ethic right nobody
deserves right a job or to work
full-time forever right at a company and
there's got to be performance and you
got to deserve right your position or
your place in the company third i think
elon is trying to better prepare tesla
for a possible global recession that
could possibly be worse than most people
expect and by lowering operating
expenses this could allow tesla to
maintain a higher operating margin right
through tough times also i think you
know doing layoffs like this it could
possibly make the company healthier long
term all right so elon also had this
thing about having a super bad feeling
about the economy now i don't have the
copy of his first email to executive so
i'm not going to comment on this until i
have more context i want to see the
overall email i don't want to jump the
gun right and make you know kind of a
reaction that
i would regret because you know i didn't
even see the email so i'll wait on that
for the time being all right so overall
as an investor in tesla i'm not
overreacting to this news i actually
think overall in the long term is
actually good news tesla is focused on
being a lean mean machine elon is not
afraid to make the hard decisions i
don't see any indications that tesla is
ramping down or bringing down their
growth goals for the future in fact i
just think all of this is just setting
up tesla to maintain their work culture
to really focus right the whole company
on the mission and really doing an
exceptional job in making and creating
revolutionary products right that move
the world to sustainable energy i hope
this has been helpful if it has good
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guys my next video thanks


 

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