https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X2N-mE9HqS0
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0:48 greetings everyone uh this is kathy wood cio of arc invest 0:53 and as you know we've been doing these uh videos for well actually since april 0:59 of 2020 uh during the depths of the coronavirus uh and as you know since then we went 1:06 through a boom in the equity markets and uh now we're in a bear market essentially certainly the nasdaq is 1:13 uh down 20 percent or more than 20 percent from its peak uh and uh i always say to my team it's 1:20 darkest before the dawn and i do think we're moving into some cathartic moments we're certainly seeing 1:29 the equity market rebel against what we believe is 1:34 monetary policy that will end up being too tight but before i go there as you know we go through monetary 1:40 policy fiscal policy economic indicators market indicators and then a little bit 1:46 on innovation and and this uh this month we're featuring something called the 1:51 bitcoin monthly um it will be hot off the press soon after uh this video and 1:57 um it's chock full of information and perspective about what's going on with 2:02 bitcoin in particular and ultimately we will be rolling out to all of crypto 2:08 assets or all of the major crypto assets at some point in the future but a very good place to start is bitcoin of course 2:15 uh so let's start with monetary policy so so in the last month uh the fed did 2:22 tighten up we are now in the fed funds range between 0.75 percent and 1 2:31 so from basically 0 to 25 we have or 25 basis points uh we've now 2:39 gone if you use the high end of that range from 25 basis points to effectively one so up four fold and the 2:48 reason i'm giving that as perspective is we are beginning to wonder 2:53 if one of the policy mistakes here is not understanding that we're starting 2:59 uh with interest rates at such a low base that when you quadruple them 3:04 uh or go up tenfold which uh which many people think the fed will do before all 3:11 is said and done so going from 0.25 to 2.5 3:17 percent that's a 225 basis point increase that's 3:22 up 10 fold uh we've already gone up fourfold and 3:27 just hearkening back to the last time the fed was fighting 3:32 inflation and uh and ferociously fighting inflation was under volcker in the late 3:39 70s and the early 80s and uh in and i was there i was just starting my career and i remember the 3:47 fed funds rate was at 10 percent and uh chairman volcker at the time 3:54 jacked it up to 20 in one move so that was a thousand basis points to be 4:01 sure that's a lot uh and he did it to shock the economy 4:06 um but that was only up two-fold uh we've already gone up four-fold 4:12 and potentially up tenfold and just beginning to wonder if you know the 4:19 impact on the economy starting from such a low rate and having been at low rates for so long 4:28 that maybe this is yes a shock to the economy and we're seeing m2 growth slowing it 4:37 peaked i think at about 27 and is now down to eight percent on a 4:42 year-over-year basis but if you look at uh month-to-month what you'll find is 4:48 money has barely grown at all since january um that is very tight 4:54 policy already and now we're beginning i think just yesterday we began something called 5:02 quantitative tightening now i don't i say we it's the fed started quantitative tightening 5:09 and what that means is that it is going to let uh some of the assets on its 5:15 balance sheet simply roll off it's not going to buy mortgage bonds or or treasury bonds 5:23 as it has been just to replace those maturing many people think that quantitative 5:30 tightening is is is a a real tightening move 5:35 i think i just described the tightening moves the quantitative tightening is nothing more 5:41 than assets on the central bank's balance sheet the fed's balance sheet 5:47 that are going to roll off they were kindling for what could have been 5:54 an accelerated rate of bank loan growth but they were never lit and so they're 6:01 simply going to roll off so we don't think that is as significant 6:06 as the actual tightening moves uh as it pertains to interest rate and and 6:14 money supply uh now one of the fights or the biggest fight that the fed 6:20 has on its hands it believes is inflation and inflation has been much 6:25 higher than we would have expected and you know the reason supply chain uh issues for much longer almost two years 6:32 now more than two years now and then of course russia invading 6:37 ukraine really driving up food and energy prices so 6:43 the fed is not happy with this and no one's happy in fact the consumer is very upset hasn't been this upset since uh 6:49 0809 but we are beginning to see signs that inflation has peaked and chairman powell 6:56 did say maybe it did peak in uh in march uh we got the personal consumption 7:03 deflator which is the fed's primary inflation indicator it's the one they 7:09 pay uh to which they pay the most attention the headline pce deflator was an 7:16 increase of 0.2 percent so that's two and a half percent at an annualized rate roughly uh and if we 7:23 were back there on a year-over-year basis the fed would not be tightening uh nonetheless to see that happening at the 7:30 margin is really important and the fed should start taking some comfort from it 7:35 the core cpi it pays more attention to the core cpi was up 0.3 so that's three 7:42 and a half percent annualized it would like to get that down 2.2 as well 7:48 but we have seen the year-over-year inflation rate in core uh pce 7:55 dropped from 5.3 in february so this measure of inflation peaked perhaps in in february 8:02 march was ticked down to 5.2 and april down to 4.9 uh and if those 8:11 sequential numbers are any indication that rate will continue to come down 8:16 over the next year or so uh so the other the other prices that the fed 8:24 is watching i think um uh our copper copper is a very good 8:30 indicator of what's going on in the economy and and that's the global economy we know that europe and china 8:37 are practically in recession if not absolutely in recession 8:43 china's easing to try and take some of the pressure off but i think oil prices 8:49 might be the more important price mostly because of how they impact uh consumer 8:56 sentiment and inflation psychology generally so oil prices did kick up this last 9:04 month again we still didn't get back to the peak uh right after uh russia invaded ukraine 9:12 oil prices got into the 130s per barrel 9:17 and we're now down to 119 but we have been down below 100 very recently so it's 9:26 kicking back up and it will influence the inflation metrics not so 9:31 much the core pce because core excludes food and energy 9:36 and uh this this uh metric was i guess it was 9:42 designed or or derived in the 70s when oil and food were very very volatile and 9:50 often misleading in terms of where inflation ultimately was going to go 9:55 so we shall see what happens oil is more is influenced by a cartel
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0:48 大家好，我是 arcinvest 的 kathy wood 首席信息官 0:53 正如你所知，我們從四月開始就一直在製作這些呃視頻 0:59 2020 年，呃，在冠狀病毒最嚴重的時候，呃，正如你所知，從那時起我們就去了 1:06 通過股票市場的繁榮，現在我們處於熊市，基本上可以肯定納斯達克是 1:13 嗯，從峰值下降 20% 或超過 20% 嗯，嗯，我總是對我的團隊說這是 1:20 黎明前最黑暗，我確實認為我們正在進入一些我們肯定會看到的宣洩時刻 1:29 股市反抗我們所認為的 1:34 貨幣政策最終會變得過於緊縮，但在我去那里之前，正如你所知，我們會通過貨幣政策 1:40 政策 財政 政策 經濟指標 市場指標 再一點點 1:46 關於創新，這個月，我們將推出一個叫做 1:51 比特幣月刊 嗯，在這個視頻之後不久，媒體就會很火爆 1:57 嗯，它充滿了關於正在發生的事情的信息和觀點 2:02 特別是比特幣，最終我們將推廣到所有加密貨幣 2:08 資產或未來某個時間點的所有主要加密資產，但一個非常好的起點當然是比特幣 2:15 嗯，所以讓我們從貨幣政策開始吧，上個月美聯儲這樣做了 2:22 收緊，我們現在處於聯邦基金利率在 0.75% 到 1 之間的區間內 2:31 所以基本上從 0 到 25 我們有或 25 個基點呃我們現在有 2:39 如果你使用從 25 個基點到有效 1 個基點的高端，那麼它就消失了 4 倍，並且 2:48 我給出這個觀點的原因是我們開始懷疑 2:53 如果這裡的政策錯誤之一是不了解我們正在開始 2:59 呃，利率基數很低，當你把它們翻兩番時 3:04 呃或者漲十倍，呃，很多人認為美聯儲首先會這樣做 3:11 據說從 0.25 到 2.5 3:17 百分比增加 225 個基點 3:22 漲了 10 倍 呃我們已經漲了四倍 3:27 只是回想起上次美聯儲戰鬥的時候 3:32 通貨膨脹和激烈地對抗通貨膨脹在沃爾克的統治下 3:39 70 年代和 80 年代初，嗯，我在那裡，我剛剛開始我的職業生涯，我記得 3:47 聯邦基金利率是 10% 呃 沃爾克主席 3:54 一口氣將其提升至 20 個基點，因此需要 1000 個基點 4:01 肯定有很多，呃，他這樣做是為了衝擊經濟 4:06 嗯，但這只是上漲了兩倍 呃，我們已經上漲了四倍 4:12 並且可能上漲十倍，並且剛剛開始懷疑您是否知道 4:19 從如此低的利率開始並長期處於低利率對經濟的影響 4:28 也許這是對經濟的衝擊，我們看到 m2 增長放緩 4:37 我認為在 27 歲左右達到頂峰，現在下降到 8% 4:42 同比，但如果你逐月查看，你會發現 4:48 自一月份以來，資金幾乎沒有增長，嗯，非常緊張 4:54 政策已經開始了，現在我們開始了，我想就在昨天，我們開始了一些叫做 5:02 現在量化緊縮 我不是說我們是美聯儲開始量化緊縮 5:09 這意味著它將讓呃其上的一些資產 5:15 資產負債表只是滾動它不會購買抵押債券或國債 5:23 因為它只是為了取代那些成熟的，許多人認為定量 5:30 緊縮是一個真正的緊縮動作 5:35 我想我只是描述了緊縮舉措 定量緊縮僅此而已 5:41 比央行資產負債表上的資產 美聯儲資產負債表上的資產 5:47 那些將要滾落的東西 他們正在點燃可能發生的事情 5:54 銀行貸款增長速度加快，但它們從未被點燃，因此它們是 6:01 只是會滾下來，所以我們認為這並不重要 6:06 由於實際的緊縮政策與利率有關 6:14 貨幣供應 呃現在是美聯儲的戰鬥之一或最大的戰鬥 6:20 手頭上有它認為是通貨膨脹和通貨膨脹已經很大 6:25 比我們預期的要高，你知道供應鏈問題的原因要長得多，將近兩年 6:32 現在兩年多時不時當然俄羅斯入侵 6:37 烏克蘭真的推高了食品和能源價格 6:43 美聯儲對此不滿意，沒有人滿意，事實上，消費者非常不安，自從呃，就沒有這麼不安了 6:49 0809 但我們開始看到通脹已經見頂的跡象和主席鮑威爾 6:56 確實說過，也許它確實在三月份達到頂峰，嗯，我們得到了個人消費 7:03 平減指數是美聯儲的主要通脹指標 7:09 支付 uh 他們最關注的標題 PCE 平減指數是 7:16 增長 0.2%，所以按年率計算，大約是 2 個半百分點，如果我們 7:23 年復一年地回到那裡，美聯儲不會收緊，但是看到這種情況發生在 7:30 保證金真的很重要，美聯儲應該開始從中得到一些安慰 7:35 核心 cpi 它更加關注核心 cpi 上升了 0.3 所以這是三個 7:42 年化 0.5% 它也希望將其降低 2.2 7:48 但我們已經看到核心 uh pce 的同比通脹率 7:55 從 2 月的 5.3 下降，因此這一通脹指標可能在 2 月達到頂峰 8:02 3 月降到 5.2，4 月降到 4.9 呃，如果那些 8:11 連續數字表明利率將繼續下降 8:16 在接下來的一年左右，呃，其他的，美聯儲的其他價格 8:24 在看我覺得嗯嗯我們的銅銅很好 8:30 經濟狀況的指標，這就是我們所知道的全球經濟，歐洲和中國 8:37 如果不是絕對處於衰退中，實際上也處於衰退中 8:43 中國的寬鬆政策試圖減輕一些壓力，但我認為油價 8:49 可能是更重要的價格，主要是因為它們如何影響消費者 8:56 情緒和通脹心理普遍如此，因此油價確實在最後一次上漲 9:04 又一個月了，我們仍然沒有回到高峰，呃俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭之後 9:12 油價升至每桶 130 多 9:17 我們現在跌至 119，但我們最近一直跌破 100，所以它是 9:26 回升，它會影響通脹指標，而不是這樣 9:31 核心PCE很多，因為核心不包括食物和能源 9:36 呃，這個呃指標是我猜是 9:42 設計或衍生於 70 年代，當時油和食品非常易揮發，並且 9:50 在通貨膨脹最終將走向何方方面往往具有誤導性 9:55 所以我們將看到會發生什麼 石油更多是受到卡特爾的影響
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10:03 we do believe there's serious demand destruction taking place at these price 10:08 levels you can see around your own communities there's either less traffic or that 10:14 you'll see more bicycles scooters and so forth and 10:20 we do believe and we've been saying this for some time that oil demand globally 10:26 probably peaked in 2019 it is the supply shock that is driving 10:32 prices up and um and is also going to ex or has accelerated the consumer preference for 10:40 electric vehicles over gas-powered vehicles so we do believe that this oil price 10:47 increase is sowing the seeds of its own demise in the form of demand destruction and when 10:53 we say oil demand peaked in 2019 we mean it peaked many people used to use this 11:00 concept peak oil when they were talking about supply thinking we'd run out of it 11:07 and instead we are using it in the form of peak demand 11:13 the demand destruction and the shift towards energy conservation in all kinds 11:18 of ways so so that's monetary policy we think the fed is probably overdoing it i think 11:26 that certainly in terms of its intention to go up another two or three 11:32 50 basis point increases the markets are railing against that and 11:38 it is perhaps because of this very low base that i mentioned in the beginning 11:43 we've already gone up four-fold from the low still at a fairly low rate one percent 11:49 on the fed funds but the market seems to be saying that 11:55 this is more than just letting the markets work and letting interest rates go up 12:01 the economy may not the global economy may not be able to take too much more 12:07 on the fiscal policy side it was very interesting to read president biden's op-ed in the wall 12:14 street journal and his focus was inflation top of mind inflation is a big deal this 12:22 midterm election year and it could it could make the difference between 12:28 winning and losing so his three answers to inflation 12:34 include let the fed do its work now that's really interesting 12:40 as normally a democratic administration would expect a little more of a dovish 12:48 fed they'd be arguing for less restraint but he's saying let the fed work and so 12:54 um i guess that's the fed is an independent uh uh body so 13:01 the president doesn't shouldn't have any influence over what they do but it is interesting in an election year to have 13:07 the president saying let the fed do its thing keep those interest rates going up 13:13 the second is pull the deficit down the government deficit down 13:18 that would be more of a republican argument so again a surprise and 13:25 he has suggested ways to get it down that include tax increases 13:31 we do not believe any of these will go through this year this is a midterm election year it's going to get it's 13:36 going to be very difficult to get a agreement on tax increases this close to the 13:42 midterm elections and then the other ideas he has include and this is 13:49 predictable trying to whittle down health care costs especially for medicare 13:56 that has been a weight on health care stocks recently including the genomic stocks 14:03 which again if genomics uh companies can evolve cures that should save a lot of money but it 14:09 just won't be this year it'll be over the long term and then he also is suggesting investing 14:16 in new energy and so forth again that's a longer term solution so nothing really is going to 14:23 come out of that for this year so in terms of the 14:29 midterm elections one of the things that is happening here is investors are 14:34 beginning to think about a shift to a republican house and maybe 14:41 a republican senate because of how badly things have gone 14:47 in this this year and one of the things we're hearing is that 14:52 there will be less pressure on on technology and and maybe more of 14:59 movement towards it for example telemedicine in in medicare 15:04 that's a great way to reduce costs and so uh we believe that the telemedicine 15:11 companies are probably going to be benefited by a shift if there is a shift uh towards uh 15:18 republican wins in the the house and the senate okay on to the economy well we've had 15:25 some very interesting comments on the economy by business leaders just 15:30 yesterday i believe elon musk said that he has a super bad feeling 15:37 about the economy and we're trying to figure out what he's looking at 15:43 we know his own sales were up tesla sales in the month of may 15:49 uh i believe were up globally 60 percent and almost every other auto manufacturer 15:55 sales were down and some of them down by a lot um so it's not his own sales except 16:02 perhaps at the margin maybe something that he's seeing in orders um 16:07 he may be reflecting on the decline in total auto sales 16:13 um and uh so that's interesting uh jamie dimon at jp morgan 16:18 uh talked about a hurricane be prepared for a hurricane he doesn't know what kind of hurricane is it going to be a 16:24 mild one or is it going to be a hurricane sandy which would be quite serious um but 16:30 uh i think he's changed his tune a bit in in the last month since uh since jp 16:37 morgan reported earnings so what what is he saying well he sees a lot of business 16:42 activity and must see it slowing down if i if i had to guess and um the president of goldman 16:49 uh described this environment as a confluence of shocks that in his career 16:56 has been unprecedented so again he has a very good perspective a global 17:03 perspective every sector and so i would say at the margin these three business leaders are 17:10 seeing uh the economy in in some in some form of stress 17:16 now one of uh one of the issues we've been focused on with you on 17:22 on this video is the inventory buildup that was likely and we had been saying that through the 17:28 last year and um it took a while to uh to get 17:34 through some some of the supply chain issues but now we are seeing inventory increases the 17:40 likes of which i have never seen in my career and i'm talking about on a company by 17:45 company basis so walmart uh as as i'm as nancy and i mentioned in 17:52 this last youtube video uh walmart sales up uh three percent on 17:57 a comparable store basis year over year which means they were probably down in unit terms 18:03 inventory is up 33 percent which probably means in real terms taking away inflation they were up 25 18:11 to 30 percent well that's interesting because more 18:17 than half of walmart's sales are in the groceries are in groceries 18:23 and you're not going to see huge inventory buildups in groceries and so what does this say for the other half 18:30 are their inventories up 80 percent uh you know it's it's kind of crazy to 18:36 think that that's a possibility but it's a possibility and target targets inventories we're up 18:43 42 now it has less in the way of groceries as a share of the total uh so 18:49 42 percent uh maybe if you x groceries was up 50 to 60 percent um 18:56 these are crazy numbers for two of the best managed companies from a supply 19:02 chain management point of view in the world uh and so maybe 19:07 uh maybe a jamie dimon is starting to see this backing up in other ways 19:13 um in in in terms of the way the information he has uh another very interesting 19:20 um story recently this was in the wall street journal was one of the big amazon seller 19:28 aggregators so um basically pulling together a bunch of 19:33 smaller sellers and and aggregating them uh onto the amazon 19:40 network from a third party point of view in january of this year the this 19:45 aggregator had uh it had planned to go public uh it had such a boom 19:51 booming conditions during covid uh that it had um it felt that you know 19:57 this was a shift that would continue and that it could go public and wanted to go public in order to continue uh to 20:04 aggregate the seller ecosystem uh for amazon well um he instead of going public the 20:12 ceo uh decided the marking conditions were a little hostiles but he still went 20:18 ahead with the party he had planned in january and so brought a bunch of the sellers 20:25 down to mexico and i guess they were feeling very confident in january 20:30 well guess what just recently that ceo was let go 20:36 they will not go public and they may be in trouble and they may be in too much debt uh again so much confidence during 20:43 covet that you know his business would continue to boom so even the amazon seller ecosystem and 20:51 these are third-party sellers which are more than half of all of amazon sales 20:56 even they are having problem after years of taking massive share from
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10:03 我們確實相信以這些價格正在發生嚴重的需求破壞 10:08 您可以在自己的社區周圍看到的級別 流量較少或 10:14 你會看到更多的自行車踏板車等等 10:20 我們確實相信並且我們已經說過一段時間了，全球石油需求 10:26 可能在 2019 年達到頂峰 推動的是供應衝擊 10:32 價格上漲，嗯，也將加速或加速消費者的偏好 10:40 電動汽車超過汽油動力汽車，所以我們確實相信這個油價 10:47 增長正在以破壞需求的形式播下自己滅亡的種子，而當 10:53 我們說石油需求在 2019 年達到頂峰 我們的意思是它達到了很多人過去使用的頂峰 11:00 當他們談論供應時認為我們已經用完了它的概念石油峰值 11:07 相反，我們以峰值需求的形式使用它 11:13 各種需求的破壞和向節能的轉變 11:18 的方式，所以這就是我們認為美聯儲可能過度的貨幣政策，我認為 11:26 這當然是在其打算再上漲兩三個方面 11:32 50 個基點上調市場反對這一點 11:38 可能是因為我一開始提到的這個非常低的基數 11:43 我們已經從低點上漲了四倍，仍然以相當低的 1% 的速度上漲 11:49 關於聯邦基金，但市場似乎在說 11:55 這不僅僅是讓市場發揮作用並讓利率上升 12:01 經濟未必 全球經濟未必能承受太多 12:07 在財政政策方面，閱讀拜登總統的專欄文章非常有趣 12:14 街頭雜誌，他的重點是通貨膨脹，通貨膨脹是一件大事 12:22 中期選舉年，它可能會有所不同 12:28 輸贏所以他對通貨膨脹的三個答案 12:34 包括讓美聯儲現在做它的工作，這真的很有趣 12:40 通常，民主政府會期待更多的鴿派 12:48 美聯儲他們會主張減少克制，但他說讓美聯儲工作等等 12:54 嗯我猜那是美聯儲是一個獨立的呃呃身體所以 13:01 總統不應該對他們的所作所為產生任何影響，但在選舉年擁有 13:07 總統說讓美聯儲做自己的事情來保持利率上升 13:13 二是拉低赤字政府赤字拉低 13:18 那將更像是共和黨的論點，所以又是一個驚喜和 13:25 他提出了包括增稅在內的降低成本的方法 13:31 我們不相信這些都會在今年經歷這是一個中期選舉年它會得到它 13:36 將很難在如此接近的稅收增加方面達成協議 13:42 中期選舉，然後他的其他想法包括，這是 13:49 可以預見的嘗試削減醫療保健費用，尤其是醫療保險 13:56 最近一直對醫療保健股造成壓力，包括基因組股 14:03 如果基因組學公司可以開發出應該可以節省很多錢的治療方法，那麼這又是 14:09 只是不會是今年，這將是長期的，然後他還建議投資 14:16 在新能源等方面，這是一個長期的解決方案，所以沒有什麼事情會真正發生 14:23 從今年的情況中走出來，所以就 14:29 中期選舉 這裡發生的事情之一是投資者 14:34 開始考慮轉向共和黨的房子，也許 14:41 共和黨參議院，因為事情進展得很糟糕 14:47 在今年，我們聽到的一件事是 14:52 對技術的壓力會更小，也許更多 14:59 朝著它的方向發展，例如醫療保險中的遠程醫療 15:04 這是降低成本的好方法，所以我們相信遠程醫療 15:11 如果 uh 向 uh 轉變，公司可能會從轉變中受益 15:18 共和黨在眾議院和參議院獲勝，經濟狀況良好，我們已經擁有 15:25 商界領袖對經濟的一些非常有趣的評論 15:30 昨天我相信伊隆馬斯克說他有一種超級不好的感覺 15:37 關於經濟，我們正試圖弄清楚他在看什麼 15:43 我們知道他自己的銷售額在 5 月份上升了特斯拉的銷售額 15:49 呃，我相信全球上漲了 60%，幾乎所有其他汽車製造商 15:55 銷售額下降了，其中一些下降了很多，所以這不是他自己的銷售額，除了 16:02 也許在邊緣也許是他在訂單中看到的東西 16:07 他可能正在反思汽車總銷量的下降 16:13 嗯，嗯，這很有趣，傑米戴蒙在摩根大通 16:18 呃談到颶風 為颶風做好準備，他不知道這將是一場什麼樣的颶風 16:24 是溫和的，還是會是一場颶風桑迪，這會很嚴重，嗯，但是 16:30 呃，我認為他在上個月改變了他的調子，因為呃，自從 jp 16:37 摩根報告了收益所以他說什麼好他看到了很多生意 16:42 活動，如果我不得不猜測的話，一定會看到它放慢速度，嗯，高盛的總裁 16:49 呃將這種環境描述為他職業生涯中的衝擊的匯合 16:56 史無前例，所以他再次擁有非常好的全球視野 17:03 透視每個行業，所以我想說的是，這三位商業領袖是 17:10 以某種形式的壓力看到經濟 17:16 現在是我們一直關注的問題之一 17:22 在這段視頻中是可能的庫存積累，我們一直在說，通過 17:28 去年和嗯花了一段時間才得到 17:34 通過一些供應鏈問題，但現在我們看到庫存增加 17:40 我在職業生涯中從未見過的喜歡的東西，我正在談論一家公司 17:45 公司基礎，所以沃爾瑪呃，就像我和南希一樣，我在 17:52 這最後一個 youtube 視頻呃沃爾瑪銷售額增長了百分之三 17:57 同比可比商店基礎，這意味著它們可能在單位方面有所下降 18:03 庫存增加了 33%，這可能意味著實際扣除通脹因素後，庫存增加了 25% 18:11 到 30%，這很有趣，因為更多 18:17 沃爾瑪一半以上的銷售額在雜貨中 18:23 而且您不會看到雜貨中的大量庫存增加，那麼這對另一半來說意味著什麼 18:30 他們的庫存增加了 80% 你知道這有點瘋狂 18:36 認為這是一種可能性，但這是一種可能性，目標是我們增加的庫存 18:43 42 現在它在食品雜貨方面的份額減少了，呃，所以 18:49 42% 呃也許如果你 x 雜貨上漲 50% 到 60% 呃 18:56 對於供應商中兩家管理最好的公司來說，這些都是瘋狂的數字 19:02 世界上連鎖經營的觀點，呃，所以也許 19:07 呃，也許傑米戴蒙開始看到這以其他方式支持 19:13 嗯，在信息方面，他有另一個非常有趣的信息 19:20 嗯最近的故事這是在華爾街日報是亞馬遜大賣家之一 19:28 聚合器，嗯，基本上是把一堆 19:33 較小的賣家，然後將他們聚集到亞馬遜上 19:40 網絡從第三方角度看今年1月這個 19:45 aggregator 有 uh 它計劃上市 uh 它有如此繁榮 19:51 covid期間蓬勃發展的條件呃它有呃感覺你知道 19:57 這是一個將繼續的轉變，它可以公開並且想要公開以繼續呃 20:04 為亞馬遜整合賣家生態系統嗯嗯嗯他而不是公開 20:12 CEO uh 決定標記條件有點敵對，但他還是去了 20:18 他在一月份計劃的派對提前舉行，因此帶來了一群賣家 20:25 下到墨西哥，我猜他們在一月份感到非常有信心 20:30 好吧，猜猜最近那個首席執行官被解雇了 20:36 他們不會上市，他們可能會遇到麻煩，他們可能負債累累，呃，再次如此自信 20:43 渴望你知道他的生意會繼續繁榮，所以即使是亞馬遜賣家生態系統和 20:51 這些是第三方賣家，佔亞馬遜銷售額的一半以上 20:56 即使他們在多年從中獲得大量份額後也遇到了問題
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21:02 the brick and mortar retailers so just thought that was an interesting story and 21:08 surprisingly auto sales now the auto manufacturers 21:16 finally are getting through supply chain issues and according to wards 21:22 their plans were to increase production or they're in the midst of increasing production to something by something 21:30 like 20 this quarter um and uh and what we got this week was kind of 21:37 surprising uh auto sales dropped back down uh from 14. 21:44 million now steady state is 17 million so they had not even gotten back to st 21:50 steady state which is uh 17 to 18 million um and that's an annualized 21:56 unit rate per year for the us so uh 14.3 and the expectation was that 22:04 that would just continue on up to a more normal normalized rate well instead in 22:10 uh in may it appears uh auto sales dropped 12.7 so here we 22:16 are again if they build the inventory and the consumer does not come in fact 22:22 the consumer retrenches uh these companies are going to have too much inventory uh what a surprise given all 22:29 the supply chain issues we've been hearing about now today is employment friday this is 22:35 why we do um this video on this friday there's a lot of information in the 22:40 employment report so today's employment report the non-farm payroll was a little 22:45 stronger than expected an increase of 390 000 in non-farm payroll 22:52 jobs and um if we're right uh then the uh the 22:58 employment gains should be slowing down quite dramatically here uh and um and 23:05 they are slowing down they're not in the 500 to 800 000 range per month they are down below 23:12 400 000 now and we think they'll continue to move down if not negative uh 23:17 by the end of this year uh but they are stronger than i i would have expected and as we've mentioned 23:24 here before one of the possibilities might be so many uh 23:29 so many employers had been experiencing work shortages labor shortages 23:35 that now that they're able to get the labor they're saying okay even though my 23:40 business is slowing down i want to make sure i'm ready for the next cycle so that could be what's going on 23:47 what's interesting is average hourly earnings again another very important inflation indicator 23:53 average uh hourly earnings are up were up 0.3 percent in this last month 24:01 expectations uh 0.4 so the year-over-year rate has gone from 24:06 5.5 percent to 5.2 percent uh so again this should um assuage the 24:14 the fed's concerns that we're moving into a wage price spiral um the the inflation rates that 24:21 we've seen in the last year do not seem to be getting into uh into wages in a 24:27 permanent way what we did see for a while there were because of the labor shortages wages 24:34 going up to to bring people out of their homes after covid uh and back into the labor 24:41 force the labor force participation rate did tick up uh a bit after falling the previous month the only the only um 24:50 the only variables in the report that i don't think got enough attention by the press and and economists out there uh 24:57 really there are two uh in the manufacturing sector the the number of uh the gain in employment was 25:04 about half that expected 18 000 i think 39 000 was expected the other thing that 25:11 did not get i didn't see any mention was the work week the average work week in 25:17 the manufacturing sector went down and overtime went down so i think this is 25:22 the first indication uh that we're seeing that inventories are piling up 25:28 and and the manufacturing sector is beginning to retrench the other thing we saw and this 25:35 makes sense given what i just mentioned about walmart and target is the number 25:40 of retail jobs dropped by 61 000 that's a pretty big drop 25:46 and then using nancy lazar's so piper piper sandler's numbers 25:52 they are tallying up the number of hiring freezes and layoffs companies are 25:57 announcing and in total since february 61 companies this is u.s 26:03 based have announced freezes or or layoffs and just yesterday 26:10 as uh you probably know uh tesla said that it was going to lay off 10 26:16 of its workforce today uh it clarified that it's not the manufacturing part of 26:22 the uh labor force it is the white collar so uh that's that's pretty 26:27 interesting as well now the consumption indicators that have come out over the last month are quite confusing um and 26:36 we've given you some of the micro with walmart and and and target and amazon uh 26:42 if you look at the macro numbers that came out uh personal consumption expenditures for 26:49 april uh came out at 0.9 that's that's nominal so that includes 26:55 inflation excluding inflation 0.7 percent uh so that was a pretty strong 27:01 report after after a a a great degree of sluggishness the reason it's surprising 27:08 is we also got the university of michigan's consumer sentiment index 27:14 and it fell it fell to a new low and we're back to where we were in 0809 27:22 uh so that is not a good place and and it's hard to understand why consumers 27:27 would be spending so much uh the other the other confusing statistic to me is 27:34 consumer credit the change in consumer credit outstanding 27:40 now this includes both revolving so credit cards and installment debt and these are huge numbers for march and 27:48 april 37 billion and 52 billion normally we're used to seeing 6 billion or 5 27:54 billion now i have seen this before at turning points in the cycle when 28:01 consumers or small businesses probably more the latter 28:06 but applying as consumers they are worried about their ability to 28:12 get credit in the future so they take down their credit lines and we're wondering if that's part of what's 28:20 going on right now the other puzzle here is the consumer saving rate 28:26 which uh peaked at i believe 34 in april or may of 2020 28:33 uh dropped was and has been revised down and and it has dropped to 4.4 percent 28:40 so pre-covered we were at 8 we're down to 4.4 percent and we haven't 28:46 seen that level since 08 right around the time lehman uh went bankrupt uh so 28:54 it's confusing uh the combination of sentiment and savings low savings very low sentiment 29:01 um the consumer would not seem to be in a spending mood 29:06 so we shall see you know these statistics are often revised one month 29:12 does not a trend make either but that is a bit of a disconnect for us 29:17 we're also seeing housing all kinds of housing metrics going south now 29:23 affordability has collapsed a combination of a significant increase in mortgage rates 29:30 and pricing is pricing consumers out of the market and consumer sentiment i'm 29:35 sure is not helping the situation i mentioned auto so you've got housing and autos two 29:40 of the most cyclical parts of the economy uh going down right now the um 29:47 the uh used car sales uh i i should also mention are down 29:53 about 20 year-over-year now we're seeing new new car sales down 29:59 sequentially and they're down also also more than 20 on a year-over-year basis
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21:02 實體零售商只是認為這是一個有趣的故事 21:08 令人驚訝的汽車銷量現在汽車製造商 21:16 終於解決了供應鏈問題並根據病房 21:22 他們的計劃是增加產量，或者他們正在通過某種方式增加產量 21:30 就像本季度的 20 歲，嗯，嗯，我們這週得到的有點 21:37 令人驚訝的呃汽車銷量從 14 年回落。 21:44 百萬現在穩定狀態是 1700 萬，所以他們甚至還沒有回到 st 21:50 穩定狀態是 uh 17 到 1800 萬 um，這是一個年化的 21:56 美國每年的單位費率是 14.3，而預期是 22:04 這將繼續上升到更正常的標準化率，而不是 22:10 呃，五月看起來呃汽車銷量下降了 12.7 所以我們在這裡 22:16 如果他們建立庫存並且消費者實際上沒有來 22:22 消費者裁員 呃 這些公司將有太多的庫存 22:29 我們現在聽到的供應鏈問題今天是周五就業這是 22:35 為什麼我們在這個星期五做這個視頻有很多信息 22:40 就業報告所以今天的就業報告非農就業人數有點 22:45 非農就業人數增加 39 萬，強於預期 22:52 工作和嗯，如果我們是對的，那麼呃 22:58 這裡的就業增長應該會顯著放緩 23:05 他們正在放慢速度 他們不在每月 500 到 800 000 的範圍內 他們低於 23:12 現在400 000，我們認為如果不是負數，他們會繼續下降 23:17 到今年年底，呃，但他們比我預期的要強大，正如我們所提到的 23:24 在這里之前的可能性之一可能是這麼多呃 23:29 如此多的雇主一直在經歷工作短缺 勞動力短缺 23:35 既然他們能夠得到他們所說的勞動力，即使我的 23:40 業務正在放緩我想確保我為下一個週期做好準備，這樣可能會發生什麼 23:47 有趣的是平均時薪又是另一個非常重要的通脹指標 23:53 上個月平均每小時收入增長了 0.3% 24:01 預期 uh 0.4 所以同比增長率已經從 24:06 5.5% 到 5.2% 24:14 美聯儲擔心我們正在進入工資價格螺旋式通脹率 24:21 我們在去年看到的似乎並沒有進入呃進入工資中 24:27 由於勞動力短缺工資，我們確實看到了一段時間的永久方式 24:34 在covid uh之後將人們帶出家園並重新投入勞動 24:41 force 勞動力參與率在上個月下降之後確實上升了一點 唯一唯一的嗯 24:50 我認為報告中唯一沒有得到媒體和經濟學家足夠關注的變量 24:57 製造業真的有兩個呃就業的增加的數量是 25:04 大約是預期的 18 000 我認為 39 000 是預期的另一件事 25:11 沒有得到我沒有看到任何提及是工作周平均工作週 25:17 製造業下降，加班時間下降，所以我認為這是 25:22 第一個跡像是我們看到庫存在堆積 25:28 並且製造業開始縮減我們看到的另一件事，這 25:35 考慮到我剛才提到的關於沃爾瑪的內容，這是有道理的，目標是數字 25:40 的零售工作崗位減少了 61 000 個，這是一個相當大的下降 25:46 然後使用 nancy lazar 的 so piper piper sandler 的號碼 25:52 他們正在統計公司招聘凍結和裁員的數量 25:57 自 2 月以來共有 61 家公司宣布這是我們 26:03 總部已宣布凍結或裁員，就在昨天 26:10 呃，你可能知道，呃，特斯拉說要裁員 10 26:16 今天，它澄清說它不是製造部門 26:22 呃勞動力是白領所以呃那很漂亮 26:27 現在也很有趣，上個月出來的消費指標很混亂，嗯， 26:36 我們已經給了你一些與沃爾瑪和目標和亞馬遜的微商 26:42 如果你看一下個人消費支出的宏觀數字 26:49 4 月 uh 以 0.9 出現，這是名義上的，因此包括 26:55 不包括通脹的通脹 0.7% 呃，那是相當強勁的 27:01 aaa 嚴重遲緩後報告原因令人驚訝 27:08 是不是我們也拿到了密歇根大學的消費者情緒指數 27:14 然後它跌到了一個新的低點，我們又回到了 0809 年的位置 27:22 呃，所以那不是一個好地方，而且很難理解為什麼消費者 27:27 會花很多錢，另一個對我來說令人困惑的統計數據是 27:34 消費信貸 未償消費信貸的變化 27:40 現在這包括循環信用卡和分期付款債務，這些都是 3 月和 27:48 4 月 370 億和 520 億通常我們習慣看到 60 億或 5 27:54 十億現在我以前在周期的轉折點看到過這種情況 28:01 消費者或小企業可能更多是後者 28:06 但作為消費者申請，他們擔心自己的能力 28:12 在未來獲得信貸，因此他們取消了他們的信貸額度，我們想知道這是否是什麼的一部分 28:20 現在正在進行的另一個難題是消費者儲蓄率 28:26 嗯，我相信在 2020 年 4 月或 5 月的 34 日達到頂峰 28:33 呃下降了，現在已經向下修正，並且已經下降到 4.4% 28:40 所以預先覆蓋，我們在 8 歲，我們下降到 4.4%，我們還沒有 28:46 從 08 年起就看到了那個水平，就在雷曼破產的時候，呃，所以 28:54 令人困惑 情緒和儲蓄的結合 低儲蓄 非常低的情緒 29:01 嗯，消費者似乎沒有消費情緒 29:06 所以我們會看到你知道這些統計數據通常會在一個月內修改 29:12 也不是一種趨勢，但這對我們來說有點脫節 29:17 我們還看到現在各種住房指標都在下降 29:23 由於抵押貸款利率大幅上升，負擔能力已經崩潰 29:30 和定價是定價消費者退出市場和消費者情緒我是 29:35 肯定對我提到的汽車沒有幫助，所以你有住房和汽車兩個 29:40 經濟中最具週期性的部分，呃，現在正在下降 29:47 呃二手車銷量呃二也應該提都下來了 29:53 現在我們看到新車銷量同比下降約 20 年 29:59 按順序排列，它們也比去年同期下降了 20 多個
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30:04 these are these are big declines uh so we think that's going to start backing up 30:09 into the price of used cars which will then in turn back up 30:15 into the secured uh the secured credit uh um 30:20 instruments out there backed by uh used cars uh the residual value of used cars and new 30:28 cars will be going down if uh if we're right and and the economy is as weak as 30:34 these sectors are suggesting um and now on to uh markets what are the 30:40 markets telling us equities are telling us um that the the fed is going to make a 30:46 mistake and even the fed is saying we could make a mistake the economy could enter into recession we hope not there 30:54 there are instances of so-called soft landings uh but i would submit that 30:59 housing and autos down 20 is not a soft landing uh you're seeing 31:05 in the in the um sectors as equities are broken out by something 31:11 called gex sectors um energy energy utilities and materials 31:16 are up now energy and materials are value sectors 31:22 and they tend to do well in inflationary times if we're right and fiscal 31:29 fiscal and monetary policy are are both very tight and and getting tighter 31:35 uh then at some point this is going to flip we will flip away from these this value 31:43 rotation and back to growth and it couldn't happen too soon for us of course 31:48 uh on the um on the losing side consumer discretionary and of course the 31:54 the um any advertising sensitive company is getting hit here especially on the 32:00 social side and especially with the the competition from uh tick tock so it's 32:05 hard to tell how much of this is a competitive dynamic and how much of it is an economic dynamic it's probably 32:12 both and of course technology has been an underperformer interest rates uh interestingly as the 32:20 fed has talked in a very hawkish way meaning it will continue to tighten 32:26 the long-term treasury yield has had trouble uh getting and staying above three percent 32:34 now in my mind three percent uh treasury yield 32:39 would be consistent see this is the 10-year treasury bond yield it would be consistent with 32:47 10 years of three to four percent nominal gdp growth on average so right 32:53 there unless the economy is negative uh it's 32:58 very unlikely meaning economic growth real economic growth is negative it's 33:04 very unlikely that inflation is going to be in the three to four percent range um 33:10 so that should be reassuring to the fed and and the and the um yield curve meaning the difference between long-term 33:17 treasury yields and short-term uh treasury yields um that has flattened dramatically in other words as short 33:24 rates have gone up following the fed and anticipating the fed if we're thinking about the two-year rate 33:30 um the 10-year rate has not gone up that much uh and and so the yield curve has 33:36 flattened to roughly 30 basis points or 0.3 percent that's a very flat curve and 33:43 it is typically associated either with disappointing growth 33:50 impending or uh lower than expected inflation or both 33:56 uh and we think uh it will be both uh and we do believe that the fed in these 34:02 next few months is going to get the message loud and clear that it cannot increase interest rates much more than 34:09 it already has we probably will see the other 50 basis points here in june 34:16 but by july as companies are reporting earnings and talking about the future uh 34:22 we think the fed will get the message and this will be very positive for the equity markets and this is what we're 34:28 waiting for as i always say dark is before the dawn we've we're in the bear market uh everybody knows what the 34:35 problems are and um we're beginning to get signals from the marketplace that the fed um is 34:42 uh is probably going to at least start talking in a more dovish way 34:48 as opposed to hawkish um we we see the dollar and um 34:54 junk bonds and credit default swaps uh all of them kind of swinging wildly in 35:00 in the last month not giving us any sense of direction uh we've seen uh commodity prices that i 35:07 mentioned oil going back up but not getting back to where we were when 35:12 russia invaded ukraine remember at that time many people were expecting uh they were expecting oil prices to go to two 35:19 hundred dollars a barrel uh based on that supply shock and that did not happen uh so we're we're waiting here i 35:27 i i often use the word wiley coyote or the the idea of wiley coyote you know 35:33 running running running and running off the cliff not realizing it until he looks down and then boom 35:39 this reminds me very much of 1986 yes i did say 1986 oil prices were stubborn 35:46 stubborn stubborn levitating and you know the cartel even had more power back 35:52 then um and it levitated until it was clear that demand destruction uh was not going 35:59 to allow uh for the pumping of oil at the rate uh opec and others were pumping 36:06 it i think the same thing's going to happen now especially uh now that the us u.s 36:12 or oil producers can hide behind uh national security as they 36:18 are starting to uh pump more oil i think next year within the next year we'll be up to an 36:23 all-time high in oil production again and will will be perhaps perhaps will be 36:29 the largest producer in the world once again um now one of i'd like to conclude this 36:36 is this is bleeding now into the innovation part of uh this video um i'd like to talk about 36:43 bitcoin as i mentioned uh we're we're launching the bitcoin monthly um 36:49 and uh very excited about it uh because we think the market needs this 36:55 um and yasin almandra who's our lead crypto 37:01 analyst leading our crypto effort and david powell most many of you may know him uh from his on-chain 37:09 analytics work he's created many metrics that 37:14 many people are using these days so we're so happy to have him on board as well well 37:20 in this report you will see that for the first time in bitcoin's history 37:25 we've seen nine consecutive weekly declines and so when we first looked at that 37:32 uh i think that the tendency was to say uh oh that's really negative um and 37:37 my question to the team was well could it be oversold uh could the rubber band be stretching 37:44 here or or is there something uh or is there something wrong 37:50 and we don't know the answer to that so we put that in neutral category and you'll see we'll put each of these 37:55 metrics in bullish bearish or neutral but we do know what happened in the last 38:00 month is that terra the blockchain terror blew up uh 38:05 and luna is worthless uh i think uh i i think i'm correct in 38:12 saying that uh that the market cap of that ecosystem at one point was around 60 billion dollars 38:19 with a lot of um a lot of well-known advocates for it uh 38:25 i was surprised because um algorithmic stable coins uh don't make 38:31 any sense to me i have a background in economics and uh you know i i i think you need the 38:37 backing of something uh in order to have a stable coin uh and uh this did not 38:45 and so i it didn't surprise me to see the number i think this is the number of 38:51 luna uh outstanding go from in in the span of a week something like 38:58 350 million to six and a half trillion and i i think it maybe even got to 20 39:03 trillion so that's hyperinflation there was nothing backing it and uh 39:09 i can say we would never have touched it um nonetheless nonetheless 39:15 uh that turmoil that it didn't create a systemic risk um 39:21 and we've been paying attention to the other stable coins out there are they going to so-called break the buck so 39:27 that expression came about after the reserve fund a money market fund during 0.009 broke the buck 39:35 people holding that money market fund were going to get less than a dollar back for every dollar they put in and of 39:41 course the fed had to come and rescue uh that that fund because that was going to become systemic um in the 0809 39:50 meltdown um but the just the idea that such 39:55 such an instrument could exist has probably given the fed more ammunition not the fed the regulators more 40:02 ammunition to regulate in this space 40:07 and and the fed could be involved in in the regulation um there were was about three 40:15 billion dollars of bitcoin uh used as collateral they had been building uh 40:21 building it up in the last month or so and so we believe all of that was disgorged at one point that's one reason 40:28 uh that the bitcoin has gone down from uh for in the last month just from forty 40:33 thousand to thirty thousand uh another reason is the high correlation with the 40:39 nasdaq now interestingly in the last week or so that correlation broke down a 40:45 bit the nasdaq had a few really good days uh bitcoin did not so there's something else bothering uh bothering 40:52 bitcoin it is down 57 since it's high at almost 70 000 40:58 in in november uh its 200 week moving average is 22 41:04 000. so today we're at 29 000 i think it's 200 week moving average is at uh 22 41:12 000 and rising now the reason that particular number is interesting to us 41:17 is we initiated our first bitcoin uh position at uh back then it was the 200 week 41:25 moving average it was in the 225 to 250 dollar range so we've come a 41:31 long way since then uh but that has proven to be a a a nice support 41:38 um so that's that's also interesting a couple of other points i'll just highlight and you can see in the report 41:45 it appears that the term holders and you can see everything in this ecosystem the transparency is amazing 41:54 this does appear according to our metrics that short-term holders have capitulated 42:01 that's very good news in terms of putting in a bottom long-term holders are at an all-time 42:06 high at 65.7 percent uh that means they've been holding bitcoin for at least a year that is that 42:15 we've got some very strong holders our hodlers here uh that's also very good 42:20 news uh although we might see some long-term holder capitulation to to mark 42:25 the bottom um and then the last metric that i'll feature there are many more is that uh 42:32 the futures bitcoin futures are selling at a discount discount to the to to to 42:38 spot bitcoin and during those times we expect volatility 42:44 now we don't know if it's up or down but you can see from other metrics uh in in the piece that our uh our 42:54 thinking right now or our judgment call is the next big bout of volatility in 42:59 bitcoin will be to the upside nonetheless we are on guard uh you know 43:04 the the terra uh the terra um disaster it was a fiasco for for crypto 43:12 i think in terms of raising um or giving regulators even more 43:17 incentive and reason to come in and regulate a little bit more 43:22 with more of a heavy hand than we would anticipate uh so take a look at the report uh it will be coming out monthly 43:30 uh there'll be a little summary of what we think are uh the most important um developments during the past month 43:36 and um you know again bitcoin blockchain technology is very transparent uh arc 43:43 invest is very transparent and uh we will be out there um you know giving 43:50 you our point of view uh and and explaining you know what we believe is 43:55 going on every step of the way we give our research away so you understand why we're invested how we're invested we 44:02 will be um putting up in uh in the next 10 days another of our models we're open 44:10 sourcing another model uh so stay tuned for that we intend to model certainly our top ten 44:18 stocks over time and put those models on github so that you will be able to uh if you 44:27 disagree with our assumptions modify them and and get a sense of where uh the 44:33 price target would be five years out if your assumptions are correct and another 44:39 reason we're putting these models out is because we feel that they're not 44:44 being the these stocks are not being covered as effectively as they might be 44:51 all we do is disruptive innovation all of our investing and research is 44:56 centered on it and so we want to offer it up to help 45:02 enlighten people who might like to know uh how we think the world is changing we 45:07 certainly put a lot of the top-down work out there now we're putting out more of the bottom-up work so you can see uh the 45:14 intensity behind our analysis not just the top-down analysis but the bottom-up 45:19 analysis and you can also see and this is so important how taking a five-year point 45:26 of view um can change uh completely 45:32 the outlook for a stock when we're in risk off everyone's time horizon shrinks 45:37 to almost nothing and uh if it's almost like they focus on the 45:43 last 12 months but when risk on happens again time 45:48 horizons will extend and uh and we hope that we will be providing you uh with a better 45:55 understanding of how the next five years are going to look for uh for lots of stocks 46:00 uh and and of course for our five innovation platforms so genomic sequencing adaptive robotics energy 46:07 storage artificial intelligence and blockchain technology so with that um 46:12 i will look forward to uh presenting again next month and hopefully these cathartic moments have 46:18 happened and we'll be on our way again so thanks again 46:41 you
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30:04 這些都是很大的下降，嗯，所以我們認為這將開始回升 30:09 進入二手車的價格，然後又會回升 30:15 進入有擔保的呃有擔保的信用呃呃 30:20 uh 二手車支持的儀器 uh 二手車和新車的殘值 30:28 如果我們是對的，那麼汽車將會下降，而且經濟如此疲軟 30:34 這些部門正在暗示嗯，現在對呃市場來說，什麼是 30:40 市場告訴我們，股票告訴我們，嗯，美聯儲將 30:46 錯誤，甚至美聯儲都在說我們可能會犯錯誤經濟可能會陷入衰退，我們希望不會出現 30:54 有所謂的軟著陸的例子，呃，但我會提交 30:59 住房和汽車下降 20 不是軟著陸 31:05 在 um 行業，因為股票被某些東西打破了 31:11 稱為 gex 部門 um 能源 能源 公用事業和材料 31:16 現在上漲 能源和材料是價值部門 31:22 如果我們是正確的和財政的，他們往往會在通貨膨脹時期表現良好 31:29 財政和貨幣政策都非常緊，而且越來越緊 31:35 呃，然後在某個時候，這將翻轉，我們將翻轉遠離這些這個值 31:43 輪換並恢復增長，當然這對我們來說不會太早 31:48 呃，在失敗的一方，消費者可自由支配，當然還有 31:54 嗯，任何對廣告敏感的公司都會在這裡受到打擊，尤其是在 32:00 社交方面，尤其是來自 uh tick tock 的競爭，所以 32:05 很難說這其中有多少是一種競爭動力，有多少是一種經濟動力，它可能 32:12 兩者，當然，技術一直是表現不佳的利率，有趣的是， 32:20 美聯儲以非常強硬的方式進行了談話，這意味著它將繼續收緊 32:26 長期國債收益率難以達到並保持在3%以上 32:34 現在在我看來 3% 呃 國債收益率 32:39 將是一致的，這是 10 年期國債收益率，它將是一致的 32:47 10 年平均名義 GDP 增長 3% 到 4% 如此正確 32:53 除非經濟是負數 32:58 非常不可能 意味著經濟增長 實際經濟增長是負數 33:04 通貨膨脹率不太可能在百分之三到百分之四的範圍內 33:10 所以這應該讓美聯儲放心 和 和 和 um 收益率曲線意味著長期之間的差異 33:17 國債收益率和短期呃國債收益率已經急劇趨於平緩，換句話說就是短期的國債收益率 33:24 如果我們考慮兩年期利率，利率已經隨著美聯儲和預期美聯儲而上漲 33:30 嗯 10 年期利率並沒有上升那麼多 呃 所以收益率曲線有 33:36 拉平至大約 30 個基點或 0.3%，這是一條非常平坦的曲線，並且 33:43 它通常與令人失望的增長有關 33:50 即將發生或低於預期的通貨膨脹或兩者兼而有之 33:56 呃，我們認為呃，這將是呃，我們確實相信這些美聯儲 34:02 接下來的幾個月將發出響亮而明確的信息，即它不能增加利率 34:09 它已經有了，我們可能會在 6 月份看到另外 50 個基點 34:16 但到 7 月，隨著公司報告收益並談論未來，呃 34:22 我們認為美聯儲會得到消息，這將對股市非常有利，這就是我們的目標 34:28 等待正如我常說的黑暗是黎明之前我們已經進入熊市呃每個人都知道什麼 34:35 問題是，嗯，我們開始從市場上得到信號，那就是美聯儲 34:42 呃可能至少會開始以更溫和的方式說話 34:48 與鷹派相反，嗯，我們看到美元和嗯 34:54 垃圾債券和信用違約掉期 35:00 在上個月沒有給我們任何方向感呃我們已經看到呃商品價格，我 35:07 提到石油回升但沒有回到我們當時的位置 35:12 俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭記得當時很多人都在期待呃他們期待油價漲到2 35:19 一百美元一桶，嗯，基於供應衝擊，這並沒有發生，所以我們在這裡等著我 35:27 ii 經常使用 wiley coyote 這個詞或你知道的 wiley coyote 的想法 35:33 奔跑奔跑從懸崖上奔跑直到他低頭然後轟隆隆才意識到 35:39 這讓我想起了 1986 年是的，我確實說過 1986 年的油價很頑固 35:46 頑固的懸浮，你知道卡特爾甚至有更多的權力回來 35:52 然後嗯，它一直懸浮，直到很明顯需求破壞呃不會繼續 35:59 以允許 uh 以 uh 歐佩克和其他人的抽油速度抽油 36:06 我認為現在也會發生同樣的事情，尤其是現在我們 36:12 或者石油生產商可以躲在呃國家安全背後，因為他們 36:18 開始抽更多的油，我想明年在明年我們將達到 36:23 石油產量再次創歷史新高，也許會 36:29 再次成為世界上最大的生產商，嗯，現在我想總結一下 36:36 這現在是否正在滲透到這個視頻的創新部分，嗯，我想談談 36:43 比特幣正如我提到的，嗯，我們正在每月推出比特幣 36:49 嗯，非常興奮，因為我們認為市場需要這個 36:55 嗯，還有我們的首席加密貨幣 yasin almandra 37:01 領導我們的加密工作的分析師和大衛鮑威爾你們中的大多數人可能從他的鏈上認識他 37:09 分析工作，他創建了許多指標， 37:14 這些天很多人都在使用，所以我們很高興他也能加入 37:20 在這份報告中，你將看到比特幣歷史上的第一次 37:25 我們已經看到連續九週下跌，所以當我們第一次看到 37:32 呃，我認為這種傾向是說呃，哦，那真的是負面的，嗯， 37:37 我向團隊提出的問題是，它會不會被超賣，呃，橡皮筋會不會被拉長？ 37:44 這裡 或者 有什麼 呃 或者有什麼問題 37:50 我們不知道這個問題的答案，所以我們把它放在中立的類別中，你會看到我們會把每一個 37:55 看漲看跌或中性的指標，但我們確實知道最後發生了什麼 38:00 那個月是 terra 區塊鏈恐怖炸毀了呃 38:05 盧娜一文不值 38:12 說那個生態系統的市值在某一時刻大約是 600 億美元 38:19 有很多很多知名的倡導者 38:25 我很驚訝，因為嗯算法穩定幣呃不 38:31 對我來說有什麼意義，我有經濟學背景，嗯，你知道 iii 認為你需要 38:37 支持某事 uh 為了獲得穩定幣 uh and uh this didn't 38:45 所以我看到這個數字並不讓我感到驚訝，我認為這是 38:51 Luna uh 出色的在一周內進入類似 38:58 3.5 億到 6.5 萬億，我認為它甚至可能達到 20 39:03 萬億，這就是惡性通貨膨脹，沒有什麼支持它，呃 39:09 我可以說我們永遠不會碰它 39:15 呃，它沒有造成系統性風險的動盪 39:21 而且我們一直在關注其他穩定幣，它們會不會所謂的暴跌，所以 39:27 這種說法是在儲備基金貨幣市場基金在 0.009 跌破美元之後出現的 39:35 持有該貨幣市場基金的人每投入一美元，將獲得不到一美元的回報 39:41 當然，美聯儲必須來拯救那個基金，因為這將在 0809 中成為系統性的 39:50 崩潰嗯，但只是這樣的想法 39:55 可能存在這樣的工具可能給美聯儲更多彈藥，而不是給監管機構更多 40:02 在這個空間中調節的彈藥 40:07 並且美聯儲可能會參與監管，嗯，大約有三個 40:15 十億美元的比特幣呃作為他們一直在建造的抵押品 40:21 在過去一個月左右建立起來，所以我們相信所有這些都在某一時刻被吐出，這是原因之一 40:28 呃，比特幣在上個月從 uh 下跌了僅僅從 40 40:33 一萬到三萬呃另一個原因是與 40:39 納斯達克現在有趣的是，在上週左右，相關性打破了 40:45 位納斯達克有幾個非常好的日子，呃，比特幣沒有，所以還有其他事情困擾著呃困擾 40:52 比特幣下跌 57，因為它接近 70 000 40:58 在 11 月 uh 它的 200 週移動平均線是 22 41:04 000. 所以今天我們是 29 000 我認為這是 200 週移動平均線是 uh 22 41:12 000 並且現在正在上升，這是我們對特定數字感興趣的原因 41:17 我們是否在 uh 開始了我們的第一個比特幣 uh 頭寸，那時是 200 週 41:25 移動平均線在 225 到 250 美元範圍內，所以我們來了 41:31 從那以後還有很長的路要走，但事實證明這是一個很好的支持 41:38 嗯，這也是很有趣的其他幾點我會強調一下，你可以在報告中看到 41:45 看來，術語持有者，你可以看到這個生態系統中的一切，透明度是驚人的 41:54 根據我們短期持有者已經投降的指標，這確實出現了 42:01 就長期持有人的底部而言，這是一個非常好的消息 42:06 高達 65.7% 呃，這意味著他們已經持有比特幣至少一年了 42:15 我們有一些非常強大的持有者，我們的持有者，嗯，這也很好 42:20 新聞呃雖然我們可能會看到一些長期持有人投降以標記 42:25 底部的嗯，然後是我將展示的最後一個指標還有更多是，呃 42:32 期貨 比特幣期貨以低於 to to to to 的折扣出售 42:38 現貨比特幣，在那些時候我們預計會出現波動 42:44 現在我們不知道它是上升還是下降，但你可以從其他指標中看到我們的呃我們的 42:54 現在思考或我們的判斷是下一輪大波動 42:59 比特幣將上漲，但我們保持警惕，你知道的 43:04 terra uh terra um 災難，這是加密貨幣的慘敗 43:12 我認為在提高 um 或給予監管機構更多方面 43:17 進來並進行更多監管的動機和理由 43:22 比我們預期的要重，所以看看報告吧，它將每月發布一次 43:30 呃，我們認為呃過去一個月中最重要的發展，將會有一個小總結 43:36 嗯，你又知道比特幣區塊鏈技術是非常透明的，呃弧 43:43 投資是非常透明的，嗯，我們會在那裡，嗯，你知道給予 43:50 你我們的觀點呃和解釋你知道我們相信什麼 43:55 我們將研究的每一步都進行下去，以便您了解我們為什麼投資我們如何投資我們 44:02 在接下來的 10 天內，我們將在 uh 中推出我們正在營業的另一個模型 44:10 採購另一個模型，所以請繼續關注我們打算為我們的前十名建模 44:18 隨著時間的推移庫存並將這些模型放在github上，這樣你就可以呃，如果你 44:27 不同意我們的假設 修改它們並了解呃在哪裡 44:33 如果你的假設是正確的，那麼價格目標將是五年後 44:39 我們推出這些模型的原因是因為我們覺得它們不是 44:44 由於這些股票沒有得到應有的有效覆蓋 44:51 我們所做的就是顛覆性創新 我們所有的投資和研究都是 44:56 以它為中心，所以我們想提供它來幫助 45:02 啟發那些可能想知道我們如何看待世界正在改變的人 45:07 當然放了很多自上而下的工作，現在我們推出了更多的自下而上的工作，所以你可以看到 45:14 我們分析背後的強度不僅僅是自上而下的分析，而是自下而上的分析 45:19 分析，您還可以看到，這非常重要，如何獲得五年點 45:26 看來嗯可以完全改變嗯 45:32 當我們面臨風險時股票的前景每個人的時間範圍都會縮小 45:37 幾乎沒有，呃，如果這幾乎就像他們專注於 45:43 過去 12 個月，但當風險再次發生時 45:48 視野會擴大，嗯，我們希望我們會為你提供更好的 45:55 了解未來五年將如何尋找大量股票 46:00 呃，當然還有我們的五個創新平台，所以基因組測序自適應機器人能源 46:07 存儲人工智能和區塊鏈技術所以有了那個嗯 46:12 我期待著下個月再次出現，希望這些宣洩的時刻有 46:18 發生了，我們將再次上路，再次感謝 46:41 你 全部有關的來自方舟投資
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