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9 Semiconductor Themes For 2022: Automotive Chip Shortage, Strong Cloud Demand, AI/ML Powering Metaverse And More
2022年的9個半導體主題：汽車芯片短缺、強勁的雲需求、AI/ML為Metaverse提供動力等
Benzinga Real-time News· 12/18 03:44
Recent supply chain conditions set up the semiconductor sector for substantial revenue in 2022 with much of the growth coming from substantial restocking by customers, according to an analyst at Morgan Stanley.
摩根士丹利(音譯)的一位分析師表示，最近的供應鏈狀況為半導體行業在2022年創造了可觀的收入，其中很大一部分增長來自客户的大量補充庫存。
Here are the dominant themes for the sector in 2022, according to analyst Joseph Moore.
分析師約瑟夫·摩爾(Joseph Moore)表示，以下是2022年該行業的主導主題。
Supply Constraints To Remain Tight: Despite constraints easing, the supply chain is likely to remain very tight well into 2022, analyst Moore said in the note. Demand trends, though seeing a downtick, are still very robust, he added.
供應約束將繼續趨緊：分析師摩爾在報告中表示，儘管限制有所緩解，但供應鏈可能會在2022年之前保持非常緊張的狀態。他補充稱，需求趨勢雖然有所下降，但仍非常強勁。
Automotive Chip Shortages Need to Ease Automotive chips could see material revenue upside in 2022 with potentially 30% growth compared to consensus expectations for 10% growth, the analyst said. For that growth to materialize, lead times should decline and availability should improve, he added.
汽車芯片短缺需要緩解這位分析師表示，與普遍預期的10%的增長相比，2022年汽車芯片的材料收入可能會出現30%的增長。他補充説，要實現這種增長，交付期應該會下降，供應應該會改善。
Inventory build is likely to be less of a headwind in 2022 than people expect and other tailwinds such as content growth, EV mix shift, price increases and inventory restocking will more than offset any weakness, the analyst said.
這位分析師表示，2022年庫存建設的逆風可能沒有人們預期的那麼大，內容增長、電動汽車組合轉變、價格上漲和庫存補充等其他順風將足以抵消任何疲軟。
"But for the industry to achieve outsized growth, we will need shortages to ease, which can pressure the narrative even as numbers rise," Moore said.
摩爾説：“但要讓該行業實現過大的增長，我們需要緩解短缺，這可能會在數字上升的情況下對敍事造成壓力。”
Trade Tension Should Lead to Increased Localization: Trade tensions between China and the U.S. should lead to a significant increase in localization, Moore said. Both U.S. and China are providing government incentives for domestic spending, the analyst noted.
貿易緊張應該會導致更多的本地化：摩爾説，中美之間的貿易緊張應該會導致本地化的顯著增加。這位分析師指出，美國和中國都在為國內支出提供政府激勵措施。
Europe and Japan are also wanting to increase local semiconductor supply, he added.
他補充説，歐洲和日本也希望增加當地的半導體供應。
Cautious Memory Market Outlook: Restocking for memory products comes with a certain amount of risk, given historic fluctuations and the large dollar amounts of inventory stored, Moore said. Customer inventories of DRAM are significantly elevated across PC, server and handset market, the analyst noted.
謹慎的內存市場展望：摩爾説，考慮到歷史上的波動和儲存的大量庫存，補充記憶產品的庫存伴隨着一定的風險。這位分析師指出，在個人電腦、服務器和手機市場，客户的DRAM庫存都大幅上升。
Pricing is expected to continue to fall in 2022 and it is less likely that memory fundamentals outperform, the analyst said.
這位分析師表示，預計2022年定價將繼續下跌，內存基本面表現強於大盤的可能性較小。
Moore said he prefers NAND over DRAM, with Western Digital Corp (NASDAQ:WDC) his preferred name due to the low valuation of its NAND business, its HDD remaining strong and low expectations for NAND.
摩爾説，與DRAM相比，他更喜歡NAND，西部數據公司納斯達克(Sequoia Capital：WDC)是他的首選名字，因為其NAND業務估值較低，其硬盤依然強勁，對NAND的期望也較低。
Related Link: Nvidia Analyst Hikes Price Target By 30% On $10B Opportunity Presented By The Metaverse
相關鏈接：NVIDIA分析師將Metaverse提供的100億美元商機的目標價格上調30%
Semiconductor Capital Equipment To See Growth: After an unusually strong wafer equipment spending market in 2021, incremental growth is likely in 2022, thanks to shipment catch-up, sustainable end-market demand, increasing process complexity and localization, and government support, Moore said.
半導體資本設備將實現增長：摩爾表示，在2021年晶圓設備支出市場異常強勁之後，2022年可能會出現增量增長，這要歸功於出貨量的追趕、可持續的終端市場需求、不斷增加的工藝複雜性和本地化，以及政府的支持。
"We expect WFE growth to be led by Foundry as those customers have announced plans for significant capex, and Memory to be only slightly up," the analyst said.
這位分析師表示：“我們預計WFE的增長將由Foundry引領，因為這些客户已經宣佈了大幅資本支出的計劃，而內存只會略有增加。”
Lam Research Corporation (NASDAQ:LRCX), Applied Materials, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMAT), KLA Corp (NASDAQ:KLAC) and Teradyne, Inc. (NASDAQ:TER) will likely grow at or above the WFE market in 2022, Moore said.
LAM研究公司(納斯達克：LRCX)，應用材料公司(納斯達克：AMAT)，KLA公司(納斯達克：KLAC)和Teradyne，Inc.摩爾説，到2022年，納斯達克(Weibo：TER)的增長可能會達到或超過WFE市場。
The analyst said he has a preference for Lam Research, given low investor expectations, the opportunity for growth in Foundry/Logic and continued strength on the leading edge.
這位分析師表示，考慮到投資者的低預期、Foundry/Logic的增長機會以及領先優勢的持續優勢，他更傾向於LAM Research。
Cloud Semi Demand To Remain Strong: End market supply issues are less severe for data center chips than those witnessed by consumer end markets, Moore said. The data center end market should see a source of upside once shortages ease, as cloud demand proves durable for another year, he added.
雲半需求將保持強勁：摩爾表示，數據中心芯片的終端市場供應問題沒有消費者終端市場所見證的那麼嚴重。他補充説，一旦短缺緩解，數據中心終端市場應該會看到一個上行來源，因為雲需求被證明可以再持續一年。
Morgan Stanley said it continues to like Broadcom Inc.'s (NASDAQ:AVGO) positioning in the market.
摩根士丹利説，它繼續喜歡博通公司(Broadcom Inc.)(納斯達克：AVGO)在市場上的定位。
Global Smartphone Market To Remain Strong: Despite the maturation of 5G, Morgan Stanley expects the global smartphone market to remain strong. The firm models another year of double-digit sales growth for the handset semiconductor market.
全球智能手機市場將保持強勁：儘管5G已經成熟，但摩根士丹利預計全球智能手機市場仍將保持強勁。該公司為手機半導體市場預測了又一年兩位數的銷售增長。
After the initial ramp of 5G, the addition of incremental frequency bands, driven primarily by the proliferation of mmWave outside of the Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) ecosystem as well as UWB, will likely be the next source of content growth, the firm added.
在最初的5G斜坡之後，增加的頻段主要是由毫米波在外部的擴散推動的蘋果納斯達克(Weibo：AAPL)生態系統和超寬帶很可能成為下一個內容增長點，該公司補充道。
The firm recommends Qualcomm, Inc. (NASDAQ:QCOM), Broadcom and Qorvo Inc (NASDAQ:QRVO) as ways to play the trend.
該公司建議高通公司(納斯達克：qcom)，博通和Qorvo Inc.(納斯達克：QRVO)作為追逐這一趨勢的方式。
Numerous Growth Drivers To Remain Strong: EVs/ADAS, LiDAR, computer vision and SiC should all grow strongly in 2022, Moore said.
眾多增長動力將保持強勁勢頭：摩爾説，電動汽車/ADAS、激光雷達、計算機視覺和SIC在2022年都應該會強勁增長。
"While the market is still nascent, we anticipate the strong momentum from 2021 to carry into 2022," the analyst said.
這位分析師表示：“雖然市場仍處於萌芽階段，但我們預計從2021年開始的強勁勢頭將延續到2022年。”
Related Link: Why AMD Is Looking 'Solid' Into The Year-End
相關鏈接：為什麼AMD看起來在年終時看起來很堅固
AI/ML Processing Edge And Metaverse: Artificial intelligence and machine learning will continue to be an increasingly significant portion of data center spend, Moore said.
AI/ML Processing Edge and Metverse：摩爾表示，人工智能和機器學習將繼續成為數據中心支出中越來越重要的一部分。
Additionally, AI/ML applications are likely to permeate more into the physical world, the analyst said.
此外，這位分析師表示，AI/ML應用程序可能會更多地滲透到物理世界中。
"Thus far, we have seen a meaningful number of product announcements for AI/ML edge use cases in both automotive, IoT and AR/VR applications that are expected to launch in volume over the next several years," the analyst wrote in the note.
這位分析師在報告中寫道：“到目前為止，我們已經在汽車、物聯網和AR/VR應用中看到了大量針對AI/ML邊緣用例的產品發佈，預計這些產品將在未來幾年大量推出。”
Companies that intend to capture a portion of this opportunity include Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA), Ambarella Inc (NASDAQ:AMBA), Qualcomm, Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC) and Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD), the analyst added.
打算抓住這一機遇的公司包括NVIDIA公司(納斯達克：NVDA)，安巴雷拉公司(納斯達克：AMBA)，高通 英特爾公司(納斯達克：INTC)和先進微設備公司(納斯達克：AMD)，這位分析師補充道。
Image by Cristian Ibarra from Pixabay
克里斯蒂安·伊巴拉(Cristian Ibarra)來自皮克斯巴伊的圖片
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