2022年11月29日 星期二

Bloomberg: 石油交易的波動性回歸 Volatility Returns to Oil Trading


 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pKT6FkUtwB8 
We saw a little bit of a bounce back in the New York session, but that's on
holding. It's not holding.
And there had been a view or there is a view that open.
Plus, when it meets on Sunday, will cut by the 2 million barrels that they cut a
month ago, surprising the market at the time and catching the rebuke of
President Biden. In fact, analysts and traders surveyed
by Bloomberg believe there could actually be deeper cuts because of the
faltering oil market. And that's why we saw a brief rebound to
the New York session after prices fell to the lowest for the year so far down
around the 74 dollar level. Again, we're seeing the decline continue
in the Asian session. We saw a similar trajectory for Brent
crude. And again, if you drop into the
Bloomberg, what you can see is that all of the gains for oil thus far this year
have been given back. And that's with a number of crosswinds
laying on the macro economic effects. As you see, oil had spiked earlier in
the year and now we're actually at a loss for the year actually going into
the Asian session. Now, OPEC has a difficult task of
weighing the impact of sanctions on Russian oil, which are going to kick in
in early December and the ISE says could slump 15 percent by early next year in
terms of their output against the impact of potential stricter lockdowns in
China. That's clouding the outlook for demand
layer on the impact of perhaps fuel continued rate hikes by the Fed.
That's another question weighing on oil. And all of that is creating a bearish
effect in the near-term right here. As soon as the protests in China,
meanwhile, and concerns about Covid really weighing on the commodity complex
as a whole, right? Yeah.
Analysts are saying that the actual increase in the cases that we saw over
the weekend to record numbers. And the concern about stricter
lockdowns, which could really have a dramatic negative impact on demand.
All of that affecting commodities from agricultural to metals.
In fact, BMO Capital Markets analyst says they expect the renewed lockdowns
to hurt markets confidence into the year end.
Copper took a big hit in the London market, was down as much as 2 percent
before rebounding. Soybeans is another commodity that took
a bit of a hit. Again, it reversed earlier losses
because there's some currency situation in Argentina that could actually buoy
it. Solid sales, weak market.
Also taking hits. And again, there is a concern that while
there's uncertainty in China, which is such a big consumer of commodities, that
if anything, you'll see some buyers delay their purchases with the
expectation of these renewed lockdowns.
我們在紐約時段看到了一點反彈,但那是
保持。它沒有舉行。
並且有一個視圖或有一個打開的視圖。
此外,在周日開會時,將減產 200 萬桶
一個月前,震驚了當時的市場,招來了斥責
拜登總統。事實上,接受調查的分析師和交易員
彭博社認為實際上可能會進一步削減,因為
動蕩的石油市場。這就是為什麼我們看到了短暫的反彈
紐約時段價格跌至年內最低後迄今下跌
74美元水平附近。再一次,我們看到下降繼續
在亞洲時段。我們看到了布倫特原油的相似軌跡
原油。再一次,如果你掉進
彭博社,你可以看到今年迄今為止石油的所有收益
已歸還。那是一些側風
著眼於宏觀經濟效應。如您所見,石油價格在早些時候飆升
這一年,現在我們實際上在進入這一年時處於虧損狀態
亞洲時段。現在,歐佩克有一項艱鉅的任務
權衡制裁對俄羅斯石油的影響,制裁將開始生效
12 月初,ISE 表示到明年年初可能會下跌 15%
他們的產出對潛在更嚴格的封鎖的影響而言
中國。這給需求前景蒙上了陰影
層可能助長了美聯儲繼續加息的影響。
這是另一個影響石油的問題。所有這些都在造成看跌
近期效果就在這裡。一旦在中國發生抗議,
與此同時,對 Covid 的擔憂確實對大宗商品綜合體構成壓力
作為一個整體,對嗎?是的。
分析人士說,我們看到的病例實際增加了
週末記錄數字。以及對更嚴格的關注
封鎖,這確實可能對需求產生巨大的負面影響。
所有這些都影響了從農產品到金屬的大宗商品。
事實上,BMO Capital Markets 分析師表示,他們預計重新封鎖
傷害市場對年底的信心。
銅在倫敦市場遭受重創,跌幅高達 2%
反彈前。大豆是另一種商品
有點打擊。再次,它扭轉了早些時候的損失
因為阿根廷的一些貨幣情況實際上可以提振
它。銷售穩健,市場疲軟。
也受到打擊。再一次,有人擔心,雖然
作為大宗商品消費大國的中國存在不確定性,以至於
如果有的話,你會看到一些買家延遲他們的購買
對這些新的封鎖的期望。