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2022年7月12日 星期二

哈薩克斯坦石油出口命脈被掐雪佛龍(CVX.US)等將面臨數十億美元損失

 https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/753409.html

智通財經APP獲悉,市場擔心,如果俄羅斯像外界擔心的那樣關閉哈薩克斯坦石油出口命脈,西方能源巨頭將因供應下滑而減產,並損失數十億美元。

據悉,俄羅斯一家地方法院在當地時間7月6日下令,為防止可能造成的“環境損害”,將暫停里海管道聯盟(CPC)輸油管線業務30天。這一法院裁決很可能將危及哈薩克斯坦的石油出口,同時也將令正苦苦尋找俄油替代者的歐洲買家遭遇又一重大打擊。

根據公開信息,CPC輸油管線全長超過1500公里,貫穿了新羅西斯克港碼頭、俄羅斯里海沿岸油田及哈薩克斯坦西部油田,堪稱哈薩克斯坦對外石油出口的“命脈”。哈薩克斯坦約80%的出口石油要通過該管道從新羅西斯克的碼頭出口,年輸油能力可達6700萬噸。

除了俄羅斯和哈薩克斯坦兩個主要股東之外,雪佛龍(CVX.US)、埃克森美孚(XOM.US)、殼牌(SHEL.US)和埃尼石油(E.US)等主要石油公司也持有CPC的股份。

在哈薩克斯坦運營的石油公司的消息人士表示,他們預計CPC輸油管線的業務暫停將會延長。一名西方大型石油公司的交易員表示,這種中斷將導致減少100萬桶/日的石油供應,因為地處內陸的哈薩克斯坦可供選擇的出口路線有限。

自俄烏衝突爆發後,國際油價一度飆升至2008年以來最高水平。自那以後,油價已回落至每桶略高於100美元的水平,因為市場預計經濟疲弱將降低需求。不過,由於市場對供應緊缺的擔憂,油價回落的勢頭有限。

能源諮詢機構Energy Aspects的聯合創始人兼研究總監Amrita Sen表示:“在本已緊張的環境下,每天損失100萬桶石油的供應可能會給石油市場帶來無法解決的問題。”摩根大通分析師上週預計,在俄羅斯和哈薩克斯坦總計300萬桶/日的石油供應受到製裁和相關問題的影響下,油價可能跳升至每桶190美元的歷史高位。

雪佛龍預計將成為受CPC輸油管線關閉影響最大的石油公司,因為該公司在哈薩克斯坦的石油產量約為38萬桶/日,佔其總產量的12%以上。穆迪評級的Elena nadtochi表示,近期的暫時中斷應該不會對該公司的信用狀況產生重大影響,但最終“長期中斷將對雪佛龍的產量產生重大影響”。她說,如果雪佛龍在哈薩克斯坦的投資受損或虧損,可能會導致該公司評級下調。

長期中斷還會威脅到雪佛龍未來的增長計劃。這家美國石油巨頭原本計劃將哈薩克斯坦最大油田Tengiz的產量提高40%,至100萬桶/天左右。瑞信分析師預計,到2024年,控制著Tengiz 50%股權的雪佛龍的自由現金流將在該油田增產後增至30 - 35億美元;如果油價維持在每桶60美元,到2026年,自由現金流將增至40 - 45億美元。

對此,雪佛龍牽頭的Tengiz財團TCO在一份聲明中表示:“隨著全球石油市場繼續面臨地緣政治帶來的挑戰,TCO的主要重點是保持安全運營,我們正在探索潛在的原油出口選擇。”

智通聲明:本內容為作者獨立觀點,不代表智通財經立場。未經允許不得轉載,文中內容僅供參考,不作為實際操作建議,交易風險自擔。更多最新最全港美股資訊,請點擊下載智通財經App

 

2022年5月26日 星期四

油價升極唔停的選股攻略

 https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/hard-to-ignore-which-oil-stocks-to-buy-if-crude-prices-keep-rising-025726840.html 

豐業銀行環球股票研究分析師表示,石油股「越來越不能忽視」,他們根據在原油價格上漲時各公司資產負債表的受惠程度,對這些公司進行排名。

在北美繁忙的夏季駕駛季節來臨之前,美國庫存正在減少,紐約期油的價格週三攀升至每桶 110 美元以上。美國石油協會的最新供應數據正好和應了沙特阿拉伯外交部長所提出的,「該國已盡其所能」減輕石油市場價格上漲的壓力。

「我們的觀點是,能源領域具有重要價值,」分析師 Jason Bouvier 在一份客戶報告中寫道。

根據豐業銀行,產油為主的開發商在過去6個月的回報中位數是53%,其中加拿大公司升了57%,美國企業升46%。豐業估算,若明年紐約期油在110美元水平,此行業的調整債務後自由現金流會增加29%;若油價跌至低於70美元,現金流則會升15%。

那麼,那些公司對油價最敏感呢?豐業銀行說以下企業的「紐約期油敏感度」有超過18%以上:

Bouvier關於石油為主的能源生產商的最新報告之前,上周亦發表了一份研究,指出行業中的加拿大企業的財政甚有裕餘,明年可望通過提高股息和回購股票繼續回饋股東。

根據Bouvier之前的報告,Cenovus、帝國石油和 Ovintiv (OVV) (OVV.TO) 在大價股份中最有可能提高派息比率。Crescent Point (CPG) (CPG.TO)和Vermilion Energy(VET) (VET.TO) 在中小型生產商中排名最高。

 

 

2021年9月15日 星期三

Top Oil and Gas Stocks for Q4 2021

 https://www.investopedia.com/investing/oil-stocks/

CRC, NOG, and VTNR are top for value, growth, and momentum, respectively 

The oil & gas industry comprises upstream companies that explore and produce energy, midstream pipeline companies that transport and store energy, and downstream companies that refine oil and gas into finished products. Additionally, there are companies that provide oilfield drilling equipment and services. Some also manufacture and maintain equipment used in production. The industry's biggest companies are Netherlands-based Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDS.A), U.K.-based BP PLC (BP), and Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM).

Oil demand and prices collapsed in the spring of 2020 as COVID-19 prompted governments to shut down commerce and require millions of people to stay at home. However, crude oil prices have recovered after governments have gradually permitted businesses to reopen, and new vaccines have opened the door to an economic recovery.

The oil & gas industry is best represented by the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE). While the energy sector consists of non-oil & -gas companies, its dominant components are from the oil & gas industry. Therefore, the energy sector's performance is a good benchmark for the oil & gas sector as a whole. The XLE ETF posted a total return of 54.2% over the last year, outperforming the Russell 1000's 37.1% total return.1 These market performance figures and all statistics in the tables below are as of Sept. 10, 2021.

Here are the top 3 oil and gas stocks with the best value, the fastest growth, and the most momentum.

Best Value Oil and Gas Stocks

These are the oil and gas stocks with the lowest 12-month trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. Because profits can be returned to shareholders in the form of dividends and buybacks, a low P/E ratio shows you’re paying less for each dollar of profit generated.

Best Value Oil and Gas Stocks
  Price ($) Market Cap ($B) 12-Month Trailing P/E Ratio
California Resources Corp. (CRC) 39.33 3.2 0.9
Baytex Energy Corp. (BTE.TO) CA$2.36 CA$1.3 1.1
Surgutneftegas PJSC (SGTPY) 5.20 18.6 1.2

Source: YCharts

  • California Resources Corp.: California Resources is an independent oil and natural gas exploration & production (E&P) company with operations located in California.
  • Baytex Energy Corp.: Baytex Energy is a Canada-based oil and gas company. It is focused on the acquisition, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas in both Canada and the U.S.
  • Surgutneftegas PJSC: Surgutneftegas is a Russia-based oil and gas company engaged in exploration, drilling and production, oil refining, and gas processing. Its E&P operations are located in three of Russia's oil and gas provinces.

Fastest Growing Oil and Gas Stocks

These are the top oil and gas stocks as ranked by a growth model that scores companies based on a 50/50 weighting of their most recent quarterly YOY percentage revenue growth and their most recent quarterly YOY earnings-per-share (EPS) growth. Both sales and earnings are critical factors in the success of a company. Therefore, ranking companies by only one growth metric makes a ranking susceptible to the accounting anomalies of that quarter (such as changes in tax law or restructuring costs) that may make one or the other figure unrepresentative of the business in general. Companies with quarterly EPS or revenue growth of over 2,500% were excluded as outliers.

Fastest Growing Oil and Gas Stocks
  Price ($) Market Cap ($B) EPS Growth (%) Revenue Growth (%)
Northern Oil & Gas Inc. (NOG) 17.27 1.1 N/A (see company description) 992.2
Spartan Delta Corp. (SDE.TO) CA$4.45 CA$0.7 -85.2 716.5
Continental Resources Inc. (CLR) 38.59 14.2 N/A (see company description) 603.1

Source: YCharts

  • Northern Oil & Gas Inc.: Northern Oil & Gas is an independent energy company engaged in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas properties. Its operations are located in different regions throughout the U.S. The company announced in early August that it was increasing its quarterly common stock dividend by 50% compared to the prior quarter. The dividend will be payable on Oct. 29, 2021 to shareholders of record as of the close of business on Sept. 30, 2021.2 Northern Oil & Gas reported negative EPS in the most recent quarter, which is why an EPS growth rate could not be calculated for the above table.3
  • Spartan Delta Corp.: Spartan Delta is a Canada-based oil and gas company engaged in the exploration, development, and production of petroleum and natural gas properties in western Canada. The company announced at the end of August that it has completed its previously announced acquisition of Velvet Energy Ltd., a privately held light-oil producer, for CA$751.5 million ($593.7 million).45
  • Continental Resources Inc.: Continental Resources is a crude oil and natural gas company. It is focused on the exploration and production of oil and natural gas properties in various regions throughout the U.S. The company announced in late July that it would pay a $0.15 quarterly dividend on Aug. 20, 2021, representing a 36.4% increase from the dividend paid in Q2 2021.6 Continental Resources reported negative EPS in the year-ago quarter compared to positive EPS in the most recent quarter, which is why an EPS growth rate could not be calculated for the above table.7

Oil and Gas Stocks with the Most Momentum

These are the oil and gas stocks that had the highest total return over the last 12 months. Companies with total returns over 2,500% were excluded as outliers.

Oil and Gas Stocks with the Most Momentum
  Price ($) Market Cap ($B) 12-Month Trailing Total Return (%)
Vertex Energy Inc. (VTNR) 6.76 0.4 1,230
SM Energy Co. (SM) 19.83 2.4 997.1
Centennial Resource Development Inc. (CDEV) 5.24 1.5 915.7
Russell 1000 Index N/A N/A 37.1
Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) N/A N/A 54.2

Source: YCharts

  • Vertex Energy Inc.: Vertex Energy is a specialty refiner of alternative feedstocks and marketer of high-purity petroleum products. The company supplies base oils to the lubricant manufacturing industry in North America. Vertex Energy announced in late June that it has agreed to sell its portfolio of used motor oil collection and recycling assets to Safety-Kleen Systems Inc., a subsidiary of Clean Harbors Inc. (CLH), for $140 million. The transaction is expected to close during the third quarter of 2021.8
  • SM Energy Co.: SM Energy is an independent energy company engaged in the exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas. Its operations are located in various regions throughout the U.S.
  • Centennial Resource Development Inc.: Centennial Resource Development is an independent oil and natural gas company. It is focused on developing oil and natural gas reserves in the Permian Basin.

The comments, opinions and analyses expressed herein are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. While we believe the information provided herein is reliable, we do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. The views and strategies described on our content may not be suitable for all investors. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, all comments, opinions, and analyses contained within our content are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment, or strategy.