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I am reminded of a comment that my first boss made to me in 1987: “One of
the signs of a bear market is that it feels like a big win if we close
unchanged.” I must admit that I needed to double check last week’s
closing level because it felt as though we were trading above those
levels. We’re not. But we’re also up about 3.5% in less than a
day and a half, and that really does feel like a big win.
Side note – it also feels like volatility. A 3.5% move over two
trading days is volatility. Socially
acceptable volatility, to be sure, but volatility nonetheless. Bear
that in mind if you find yourself wondering why
VIX isn’t down even more on today’s rally.
Earlier
this week we noted that a key to this earnings season would be how
investors will respond to disappointment, writing:
While the banks’ results themselves can offer little in the way of a
solid basis for extrapolation, they can offer a useful view into
all-important investor psychology. This year’s prior two earnings
seasons (January and April) showed us that investors were all-too-willing to
punish companies that missed expectations. The pain was particularly
acute for growth companies that were no longer growing rapidly – think Meta
(META), Netflix (NFLX), and Amazon (AMZN) for starters. While no one
would mistake a major bank for a growth stock, it will be important to see if
investors are in a relatively forgiving mood if the banks disappoint.
Every earnings season brings its share of disappointments. If
traders can reward positive surprises while largely shrugging off the nasty
ones, then we get an important clue that market psychology might be
turning. While I am loath to draw too many conclusions from two days of
bank earnings, the 10% jump in reaction to Citigroup’s (C) earnings, the
recovery that Morgan Stanley (MS) showed yesterday after early
disappointment, and JPMorgan Chase’s (JPM) full recovery today after a bad
earnings day yesterday show that traders may be more willing to forgive than
punish right now.
One other “tell” that the path of least resistance might be upwards in the
short-term is that
investors have been piling into inverse leveraged ETFs like SQQQ and SPXU.
Markets have a nasty way of penalizing overcrowded trades, and if the boat is
listing too far to the short side, it is more likely to lean in the opposite
direction rather than capsize. The biggest declines occur when people
aren’t expecting them, not when they’re ready for them. Furthermore,
most traders are very uncomfortable with a short bias. It’s human
nature to trade from the long side, whereas the short side requires a
disciplined, counterintuitive approach that is not easily learned.
In
the article linked above, I’m quoting as saying “Smart traders adapt if
they want to stay in the game.” In the piece, it referred to the notion
that traders had increased their short positions because of market
conditions. But it also applies to the need for traders who have been
short to recognize the potential for a short-covering rally. It would
not surprise me in the least if the next move was higher.
That said, keep these two important factors in mind. First, don’t
fight the Fed. Even if we seem ok with a 75 or 100 basis point rate
hike, the Federal Reserve still has a restrictive stance. And remember
that they have only begun to timidly implement their promised balance sheet
reduction. They have been raising the cost of money,
by raising rates, but not doing much to shrink the amount of
money via quantitative tightening. Second, if we do get a solid rally,
remember that bear market rallies are short,
sharp and ferocious. If we rally because there appears to be
meaningful positive shifts in the economy and central bank stances, then the
move higher could indicate a lasting bottom. If we rally from oversold
conditions simply because market psychology became too grim, then the rally
is likely to be short-lived.
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[i] Permit me a brief musical digression here. I wanted to check if
Jim Morrison had indeed come up with the phrase “I’ve been down so long that
it looks like up to me”. It appears to be appropriated from the title
of a 1966
countercultural novel with that title by Richard Fariña. The book’s
title in turn appears to be inspired by a lyric in a 1928 blues song by Furry
Lewis entitled “I Will
Turn Your Money Green.” I’ve had some fun imagining the horror
amongst my colleagues in Compliance if I had used that as a title…
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我想起了我的第一任老闆在 1987 年對我說的一句話：“熊市的一個跡像是，如果我們收盤保持不變，那感覺就像是一場巨大的勝利。” 我必須承認我需要仔細檢查上週的收盤價，因為感覺好像我們的交易價格高於這些價位。不是。但我們在不到一天半的時間裡也上漲了約 3.5%，這確實感覺像是一場巨大的勝利。
旁注 - 它也感覺像波動。兩個交易日內 3.5% 的波動是波動性。 可以肯定的是，社會可接受的波動性，但仍然是波動性。如果您發現自己想知道為什麼 VIX在今天的反彈中沒有進一步下跌，請記住這一點。
本週早些時候，我們注意到本財報季的關鍵是投資者將如何應對失望，並寫道：
雖然銀行的業績本身幾乎不能為推斷提供堅實的基礎，但它們可以為最重要的投資者心理提供有用的視角。今年前兩個財報季（1 月和 4 月）向我們表明，投資者非常願意懲罰未能達到預期的公司。對於不再快速增長的成長型公司來說，這種痛苦尤其嚴重——想想 Meta (META)、Netflix
(NFLX) 和亞馬遜 (AMZN)。雖然沒有人會誤認為一家大型銀行是成長型股票，但重要的是要看看如果銀行令人失望，投資者是否處於相對寬容的情緒中。
每個財報季都會帶來失望。如果交易者能夠在很大程度上擺脫令人討厭的驚喜的同時獎勵積極的驚喜，那麼我們就會得到一個重要的線索，即市場心理可能正在轉變。雖然我不願從兩天的銀行收益中得出太多結論，但對花旗集團 (C) 收益的 10% 的反應、摩根士丹利 (MS) 在早盤失望後昨天顯示的複蘇以及摩根大通 (JPM) 的全面在昨天的糟糕收益日之後今天的複蘇表明交易者現在可能更願意原諒而不是懲罰。
另一個“告訴”，短期內阻力最小的路徑可能是向上的，投資者一直在湧入 SQQQ 和 SPXU 等反向槓桿 ETF。市場對過度擁擠的交易有一種令人討厭的懲罰方式，如果這艘船向空頭方向上市太遠，它更有可能向相反的方向傾斜而不是傾覆。最大的下降發生在人們沒有預料到它們的時候，而不是當他們為它們做好準備的時候。此外，大多數交易者對做空傾向感到非常不舒服。從多頭交易是人類的天性，而空頭則需要一種不易學會的有紀律的、違反直覺的方法。
在上面鏈接的文章中，我引用了一句話“聰明的交易者會適應如果他們想留在遊戲中”。在這篇文章中，它提到了交易員由於市場狀況而增加了空頭頭寸的概念。但這也適用於做空交易者需要認識到空頭回補反彈的潛力。如果下一步行動更高，我一點也不感到驚訝。
也就是說，請記住這兩個重要因素。首先，不要與美聯儲對抗。即使我們似乎可以接受 75 或 100 個基點的加息，美聯儲仍然採取限制性立場。請記住，他們只是開始膽怯地實施他們承諾的資產負債表縮減。他們一直在通過提高利率來提高貨幣成本，但並沒有通過量化緊縮來減少貨幣數量。其次，如果我們確實獲得了穩固的反彈，請記住熊市反彈是短暫的、劇烈的和兇猛的. 如果我們反彈是因為經濟和央行立場似乎出現了有意義的積極轉變，那麼走高可能預示著持續的底部。如果我們僅僅因為市場心理變得過於嚴峻而從超賣狀態反彈，那麼反彈可能是短暫的。
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[i] 請允許我在這裡做一個簡短的音樂題外話。我想檢查一下吉姆莫里森是否確實提出了“我已經沮喪很久了，看起來取決於我”這句話。它似乎是從1966 年理查德·法里納 (Richard Fariña) 的同名反文化小說的標題中挪用的。反過來，這本書的標題似乎受到了 Furry
Lewis 1928 年布魯斯歌曲“我會把你的錢變成綠色”的歌詞的啟發。如果我用它作為標題，想像我的合規部門同事之間的恐怖，我有一些樂趣......
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