2022年6月15日 星期三

幾十年來,人們一直在談論“飛行汽車”。現在它們可能真的發生了

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-z5llj9RUVc


 

  People have talked about ‘flying cars’ for decades. Now they may actually happen

幾十年來,人們一直在談論飛行汽車。現在它們可能真的發生

0:00

This is a flying car. I’m at  a facility in Spain where this  

0:04

electric passenger drone is set to take off  on a test flight in a couple of minutes.

0:08

We’re getting a sneak peek at the technology.

0:11

From electric cars to scooters,  

0:12

the world is looking for cleaner and  more efficient modes of transportation.

0:16

Most of these efforts are focused on how we move  

0:18

around on the ground. But what  about the future of flying cars

0:21

Technically known as vertical  take-off and landing aircraft or VTOL,  

0:26

companies around the world are racing  to develop flying passenger drones.

0:29

The reason? These aircraft could be big business.

0:32

The urban air mobility market  could be worth $9 trillion in 2050,  

0:36

skyrocketing from its tiny beginnings right now.

0:39

While that is some way off,  one of the companies hoping  

0:41

for a big slice of that growing  pie is German contender Lilium.

0:46

This is the fifth generation of  Lilium’s fully electric aircraft.

0:49

The company has been carrying out test  flights at the ATLAS flight test center  

0:53

here in the south of Spain as it looks to hone the  technology and prove the safety of the vehicle.

0:57

The current test vehicle is not what Lilium  hopes to finally brings into production in 2023.

1:02

The company says the final jet will have  a cruise speed of 175 miles per hour and a  

1:07

range of about 155 miles. That’s roughly  the distance from London to Manchester.

1:12

Matthias Meiner, a co-founder of Lilium,  took me through the technology behind the  

1:16

jet and the company’s vision  of a premium user experience.

1:19

You step inside the cabin, it feels very, like  high quality, you don't have that feeling that you  

1:24

might have today in a helicopter shuttle service  where everything's loud and rattling and noisy.

1:28

So it's really from that kind  of business jet experience.  

1:31

But bringing that eventually  to the to the wider audience

1:34

While the technology appears  to be progressing quickly,  

1:36

what exactly is the business  potential for companies like Lilium?

1:40

I caught up with Alexander  Asseily, vice chairman of Lilium.

1:43

The potential for EVTOL is really to rethink how  regions connect internally and with other regions.

1:51

So today, if you want to move over  regional distances, what do you do?

1:55

Taking a long car journey, taking a train,  

1:58

were you taking a short flight from New York  to Boston, London to Paris or something.

2:00

And the way to tell is that essentially  takes some of those long car journeys.

2:05

And it says, "Wait, why spend  

2:06

two - three hours in a car you when you can  do it in less than 45 minutes in an eVTOL?"

2:11

And from a business perspective,  

2:13

now, what's the potential? How are  you thinking about business models

2:16

So we have to think about it in two ways. One is  we've got certain kinds of customers like NetJets,

2:21

for example, or Lux aviation,  who want to buy aircraft from us,  

2:24

and then operate those aircraft  within whatever model they use,

2:28

like either fractional ownership  or shuttle routes, right.

2:31

There's also a ton of opportunity  we're seeing which we've announced  

2:35

in Europe, also in the US and Florida, which  is to run our own routes with partners.

2:40

Passenger-carrying drones still face a  number of challenges, from the development of  

2:45

infrastructure such as landing pads and charging  stations to safety concerns from regulators.

2:50

If the industry is to truly take off, then  there are some big issues still to address.

2:54

The real challenge is really understanding what  

2:56

the technology is and how it's  going to function in the field.

2:58

We think the aerospace industry is awfully mature  and has very strict standards for good reasons.

3:03

But this is going to be a technology that  starts to test the edges of those regulations.

3:08

It’s not just Lilium vying to  make flying cars a reality.

3:11

A handful of companies across  the world from EHang in China  

3:14

to Joby Aviation in the U.S.  are hoping to fly ahead.

3:18

We're in a great spot to kind of move  forward towards this, what we call a  

3:21

conforming aircraft, a preproduction  prototype. So that's going to happen,  

3:24

we're going to start assembling that in 2023.

3:26

And then it's going to be about  a year and a half of final test  

3:29

campaign where essentially we take  a bunch of boxes, and then in 2025  

3:33

the plan is we will get all types certificate  and we will launch our commercial operation.

3:38

So, don’t expect to see flying cars around your  city just yet. But with every successful take-off  

3:43

and landing made by prototype aircraft like this,  the future gets just that little bit closer.

3:49

This is going to be a decade long process  of development and growing the market.

3:53

And so really, we're looking at the  middle of the decade when this becomes  

3:57

reality for people in a way that they can  see it and feel it and participate in it.

4:01

In terms of mass adoption, we're really  looking out past 2030, for the broad adoption.

 

0:00

這是一輛飛行汽車。我在西班牙的一個設施裡  

0:04

電動載人無人機將在幾分鐘內進行試飛。

0:08

我們正在偷窺這項技術。

0:11

從電動汽車到踏板車,  

0:12

世界正在尋找更清潔、更高效的交通方式。

0:16

大多數這些努力都集中在我們如何移動  

0:18

在地面周圍。但是飛行汽車的未來呢?

0:21

技術上稱為垂直起降飛機或VTOL  

0:26

世界各地的公司都在競相開發飛行載人無人機。

0:29

原因?這些飛機可能是一筆大生意。

0:32

2050 年,城市空中交通市場可能價值 9 萬億美元,  

0:36

從現在的微小開始飆升。

0:39

雖然還有一段路要走,但其中一家公司希望  

0:41

對於這個不斷增長的餡餅的很大一部分是德國的競爭者百合。

0:46

這是 Lilium 的第五代全電動飛機。

0:49

公司一直在ATLAS試飛中心進行試飛  

0:53

在西班牙南部,它希望磨練技術並證明車輛的安全性。

0:57

目前的測試車輛並不是 Lilium 希望在 2023 年最終投入生產的車輛。

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1:02

該公司表示,最後一架噴氣式飛機的巡航速度為每小時 175 英里,  

1:07

射程約 155 英里。這大約是從倫敦到曼徹斯特的距離。

1:12

Lilium 的聯合創始人 Matthias Meiner 帶我了解了  

1:16

jet 和公司對優質用戶體驗的願景。

1:19

走進機艙,感覺很高級,沒有那種感覺  

1:24

今天可能有直升機穿梭服務,那裡的一切都很嘈雜,嘎嘎作響。

1:28

所以它真的來自那種公務機體驗。  

1:31

但最終將其帶給更廣泛的受眾

1:34

雖然這項技術似乎正在迅速發展,  

1:36

Lilium 這樣的公司的商業潛力究竟是什麼?

1:40

我採訪了 Lilium 的副主席 Alexander Asseily

1:43

EVTOL 的潛力在於重新思考區域內部以及與其他區域的連接方式。

1:51

所以今天,如果你想跨越區域距離,你會怎麼做?

1:55

坐長途汽車,坐火車,  

1:58

你是乘坐短途航班從紐約到波士頓,倫敦到巴黎還是什麼的。

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2:00

判斷的方法是,這基本上需要一些長途汽車旅行。

2:05

它說,等等,為什麼要花  

2:06

在汽車上兩到三個小時,你在 eVTOL 上不到 45 分鐘就能做到嗎?

2:11

而從商業角度來看,  

2:13

現在,潛力是什麼?您如何看待商業模式

2:16

所以我們必須從兩個方面考慮。一是我們有某些類型的客戶,比如 NetJets

2:21

例如,想從我們這裡購買飛機的力士航空,  

2:24

然後以他們使用的任何型號操作這些飛機,

2:28

就像部分所有權或穿梭路線一樣,對。

2:31

我們還看到了很多我們已經宣布的機會  

2:35

在歐洲,也在美國和佛羅里達州,這是與合作夥伴一起經營我們自己的路線。

2:40

載人無人機仍面臨諸多挑戰,從  

2:45

著陸場和充電站等基礎設施,以應對監管機構的安全問題。

2:50

如果該行業要真正起飛,那麼仍有一些大問題需要解決。

2:54

真正的挑戰是真正理解什麼  

2:56

技術是什麼以及它將如何在該領域發揮作用。

2:58

我們認為航空航天業非常成熟,並且有非常嚴格的標準,這是有充分理由的。

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3:03

但這將是一項開始測試這些法規邊緣的技術。

3:08

讓飛行汽車成為現實的不僅僅是 Lilium

 

 

3:11

億航在中國的全球少數公司  

3:14

到美國的 Joby Aviation 都希望能飛得更遠。

3:18

我們正處於一個朝著這個方向前進的好地方,我們稱之為  

3:21

符合要求的飛機,預生產原型。所以這會發生,  

3:24

我們將在 2023 年開始組裝它。

3:26

然後大約一年半的期末考試  

3:29

基本上我們拿一堆盒子的活動,然後在 2025   

3:33

計劃是我們將獲得所有類型的證書,我們將啟動我們的商業運營。

3:38

所以,不要指望在你的城市周圍看到飛行汽車。但隨著每一次成功的起飛  

3:43

和像這樣的原型飛機著陸,未來就那麼近了一點。

3:49

這將是一個長達十年的發展和擴大市場的過程。

3:53

所以真的,我們正在看這個十年的中期,當這成為  

3:57

以人們可以看到、感受到並參與其中的方式呈現現實。

4:01

在大規模採用方面,我們真的期待 2030 年之後的廣泛採用。

英語

全部來自 CNBC 國際

 

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