https://www.tradersinsight.news/traders-insight/securities/stocks/when-to-be-contrarian/
作者：
史蒂夫·索斯尼克
盈透證券首席策略師
In investing, as well as in life, it is usually easier to follow the hordes. Momentum and trend-following trading strategies are based upon the idea that that markets tend to move in sequential patterns for periods of time. Investors usually find it profitable to ride long-term, secular upward trends, while traders seek to benefit from short-term moves in either direction. Yet we all know that trends don’t persist forever. It is quite beneficial to notice when a trend is ebbing or reversing. Doing so requires contrary thinking.
在投資和生活中，跟隨人群通常更容易。動量和趨勢跟踪交易策略基於市場傾向於在一段時間內以連續模式移動的想法。投資者通常會發現利用長期的長期上漲趨勢是有利可圖的，而交易者則尋求從任一方向的短期走勢中獲利。然而，我們都知道趨勢不會永遠持續下去。注意到趨勢何時消退或逆轉是非常有益的。這樣做需要相反的想法。
A recent Twitter exchange with a journalist whom I respect spurred my thinking in that regard. She offered a series of potential reversals, and although I jested that she was being quite the contrarian, I understood the logic behind her rationale. If you believe that a certain trend is firmly in place, it is important to stress test that theory by seeing if the opposite can be true. If, for example, you are riding a bullish move in a particular investment it is important for you to recognize what set of circumstances would cause the price to fall. If after careful analysis those triggers seem feeble or remote possibilities, then your investment thesis is likely a solid one. If they seem plausible or likely, then it is time to consider hedging or reducing your exposure.
最近與一位我尊敬的記者在 Twitter 上的交流激發了我在這方面的思考。她提出了一系列潛在的逆轉，雖然我開玩笑說她是個相當逆向的人，但我理解她背後的邏輯。如果您認為某個趨勢已經牢固確立，那麼通過查看相反情況是否正確來對該理論進行壓力測試非常重要。例如，如果您在某項特定投資中看漲，那麼了解哪些情況會導致價格下跌對您來說很重要。如果經過仔細分析，這些觸發因素似乎微不足道或遙不可及，那麼您的投資論點可能是一個可靠的論點。如果它們看起來合理或有可能，那麼是時候考慮對沖或減少您的風險敞口了。
Notice that I didn’t suggest bailing on your investment completely or turning from long to short. While it is critical to continually search for turning points, it is quite difficult to actually spot them and even more difficult to profit from them. But that hardly negates the need to look for turning points and the contrary thinking required in that search.
請注意，我並不建議您完全放棄您的投資或從多頭轉向空頭。雖然不斷尋找轉折點至關重要，但實際上很難發現它們，甚至更難以從中獲利。但這幾乎不能否定尋找轉折點的必要性和尋找所需的相反思維。
在最近的播客[i] 中，我與我們公司的董事長兼創始人 Thomas Peterffy 討論了趨勢跟踪的話題，他承認了這個問題：
史蒂夫
…here’s a trading question. Would you rather catch a turning point or a trend?
…這是一個交易問題。你更願意抓住轉折點還是趨勢？
托馬斯
I don’t think people can reliably catch turning points. I think that’s impossible. Trends are easier, but of course it’s a… how do you know when the trend turns, right? So since you can’t catch the turning point you can’t catch the trend turns. But the fact is that the look in a rising market or a falling market the next day is more likely to be like the previous day was.
That’s also, markets have serial runs. Trend followers have made a lot of money. And, uh, I do not know too many people who have consistently made money catching turns, although some chartists are very good.
我認為人們無法可靠地抓住轉折點。我認為這是不可能的。趨勢更容易，但當然這是一個……你怎麼知道趨勢何時轉向，對吧？因此，由於您無法捕捉轉折點，因此您無法捕捉趨勢轉折。但事實是，第二天的上漲行情或下跌行情更有可能與前一天一樣。
這也是，市場有連續運行。趨勢追隨者賺了很多錢。而且，呃，我不知道有多少人一直在賺錢，儘管有些圖表專家非常好。
史蒂夫
OK, so it goes back to the theory catch the trend but have a defined exit. Or be careful in case the trend turns against you.
So lets’ engage in a bit of contrary thinking about some key market topics:
- Equities are ready to bounce: By many technical measures, U.S. and other global equity indices are quite oversold, at least on a short-term basis. Combining traders’ natural propensity for bargain hunting and the fact that many of the most powerful short-term rallies have occurred during bear markets, it would not be unreasonable to expect a bounce at some point in the near term. But when I search for evidence of important turning points, like days when declines outnumber advances by a 9:1 basis or VIX futures trading at an extremely steep inversion, those aren’t present yet. Today’s failed rally in early trading is another negative sign.
- Key commodities reverse: Commodities charts have become downright scary. Most of them are in backwardation – implying a short-term scarcity in the underlying commodity – and some, like oil and wheat, have gone parabolic in recent sessions. Parabolic uptrends are almost always unsustainable for long periods of time and tend to reverse abruptly and sharply. The question is when. Parabolic uptrends imply that some group is desperate for the commodity or security in question. In the case of stocks, that tends to resolve itself naturally. In the case of necessities, like the commodities having the most extreme moves, supply/demand can take longer to equilibrate. Can they reverse tomorrow? Sure. When will they actually reverse? Ummm….
好的，所以它回到了抓住趨勢但有明確退出的理論。或者要小心，以防趨勢對你不利。
因此，讓我們對一些關鍵的市場主題進行一些相反的思考：
- 股票已準備好反彈： 從許多技術指標來看，美國和其他全球股票指數已經相當超賣，至少在短期內如此。結合交易者逢低吸納的自然傾向以及許多最強勁的短期反彈都發生在熊市期間的事實，預計近期某個時間點會出現反彈並非不合理。但是，當我尋找重要轉折點的證據時，例如跌幅大於上漲 9:1 的日子或VIX 期貨以極其陡峭的反轉交易時，這些還沒有出現。今天早盤反彈失敗是另一個負面信號。
- 主要商品反轉： 商品圖表變得非常可怕。它們中的大多數處於現貨溢價狀態——這意味著基礎商品的短期稀缺性——而一些，如石油和小麥，在最近幾個交易日中呈拋物線走勢。拋物線上升趨勢在很長一段時間內幾乎總是不可持續的，並且往往會突然而急劇地逆轉。問題是什麼時候。拋物線上升趨勢意味著某些群體迫切需要相關商品或證券。就股票而言，這往往會自然解決。在必需品的情況下，例如具有最極端波動的商品，供需可能需要更長的時間才能達到平衡。他們明天可以逆轉嗎？當然。他們什麼時候會真正逆轉？嗯……
We could go on and on. I offered the two examples above because those are the most pressing questions for investors and consumers alike, but this is the sort of exercise that anyone could – and should – be engaging in on a regular basis. Hopefully your investment theses withstand a key bout of critical and contrarian thinking. And if not, that you are prepared to adjust your exposures accordingly.
我們可以繼續下去。我提供了上面的兩個例子，因為這對投資者和消費者來說都是最緊迫的問題，但這是任何人都可以——而且應該——定期參與的那種練習。希望您的投資論文能夠經受住批判性和逆向思維的關鍵回合。如果沒有，您準備相應地調整您的曝光。
[i] 您可以在指向IBKR Traders' Insight Radio 的鏈接中找到本播客的其餘部分和我們討論的另一半以及其他幾個播客
