You cannot keep growth down. You cannot bet against progress. Every time it happens, whether it's in the midst of a depression or in the trauma that is an election, you must, must, must go with growth.
I know, at a time when the whole republic seems to hinge on the markings of a couple of pieces of paper out of a handful of states, how can I not talk about the ballot-counting in Pennsylvania, or the 20,000-vote margin for Biden in Wisconsin.
Simple, we are having one of the greatest rallies I have ever seen, and it begs to be explained, if only because it must not be forgotten what happens when you worry more about a thesis than the facts.
How did it happen? We got one of the biggest headfakes: Like it or not, the people have spoken and the people want lower taxes more than anything else in the world. They want the status quo. They appear to be sick of the histrionics, the arbitrary and capricious, they want a calm government not in our faces, and they don't want the extremes anymore. In fact, I regarded last night as a gigantic defeat for the hardcore lefties in the Democratic party.
It's big. I know that I was shaken about what could happen to stocks if the Democrats took over everything. It would be very difficult to make money, and, it might be taken away -- so why bother with owning stocks?
What are the consequences of the defeat of the blue wave, even as the election of the standard bearer seems more and more likely as the count comes in?
Let's go tick 'em down.
First, the possibility of an instant blue wave stimulus is now off the table. With that goes that whole bogus thesis I told you about, which JPMorgan (JPM) rolled out the other day, remember the one that said, growth was tired and spent and it was time to anticipate a better economy?
What can I say other than I told you so: Those out of growth into value narratives cost you a fortune. The banks, the oils, the industrials -- like Caterpillar (CAT) which is down 10 -- just crushed you. What made you the most money? The growth stocks that were unfairly dumped last week as this thesis originally germinated.
The stocks I highlighted -- the ones that I thought had the best quarters -- got the moves that they should have picked up last week.
Amazon (AMZN) , with that massive earnings surprise that I though was worth a huge number of points, tacked on $182 big ones and it's still more than 200 points from its high. It's now made up for that whole loss. It's the biggest beneficiary of the Covid tragedy, especially after it is spending $4 billion for safety and supply chain security. Now we like the spend for safety.
Microsoft (MSFT) , which delivered an extraordinary set of numbers -- especially its Azure cloud segment but also LinkedIn, gaming, and regular Windows -- saw its stock obliterated despite a beat and raise. It was insane. I think it might have been Microsoft's best and most balanced quarter ever. But you could not give it away. I found myself shadow boxing with the bears and Jimmy Chill got pounced on in Twitter for liking Microsoft. Wednesday the growth hounds took it way up above where it collapsed.
I was heartsick that I could have read Facebook (FB) so wrong. I saw the strength in what it was doing with small business through Instagram shops. Great growth rate for What's App. Decent numbers from stalwart Facebook. A dazzling dazzling quarter. But it got pummeled and with these other stocks, I heard talk of a negative forecast and some margin pressure. I pored through it and pored through it again. These naysayers were either lying or disingenuous.
When Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) reported I was ecstatic. Then numbers were so perfect that even the fact that the company was bidding at the same time for Xilinx (XLNX) shouldn't hurt it. Instead people abandoned it like rats on sinking ship. Dirty rats.
Maybe the worst was Apple (AAPL) . I was on the phone with Tim Cook as he released the numbers and I was joyous that he could have such a terrific quarter without a new phone. I was stunned that the service revenue stream and the wearables sales were so bountiful. I articulated my amazement at the record earnings on the call.
Wednesday night, Qualcomm just reported a monster number, again, fantastic for Apple.
Ten minutes later, I felt like a total bozo, as the stock collapsed in front of me for reasons no one knew -- but all were willing to make up. Now it is putting them back and then some, and I think it's just one more buying opportunity, especially after we heard from top supplier Skyworks (SWKS) , which intimated that a large client was buying a huge number of parts for their 5G phones. Wednesday night, Qualcomm (QCOM) just reported a monster number, again, fantastic for Apple, and, of course, amazing for Qualcomm owners given that its up 19 points. Next stop, all time high for Apple.
What do these tell you? I think speaks to the power of the micro over the macro people. Or in English: The people who told you to switch into the banks and the industrials and the oils once again made you trade the great ones to buy the losers. Sell the bad ones.
Why, after a 4% move by the Nasdaq do I still think there is more to come and the shareholders aren't done being rewarded.
First, I used to write obituaries for the Tallahassee Democrat and the L.A. Herald Examiner. Every bit of the commentary I heard last week was that these stocks and their cloud acolytes were finished, just like my obituaries. The funeral home: The new, hard-left U.S Congress, which was going to draw and quarter them and confiscate their wealth while hobbling them worse than Kathy Bates rendering James Caan's legs useless. You could expect endless hearings about how to limited the power of the Zuckerbergs and the Cooks and the Pichais and Bezos. Those are off the table. There will be some poorly attended show trials. But the success of the ballot initiative to let the gig economy survive, the one that boosted Uber (UBER) and Lyft (LYFT) , is more in keeping in this market's zeitgeist.
Second, we are going to get a stimulus, but not enough to make up for the lost jobs that are coming from the hospitality industry as the virus takes its told. Against that, though will be an increase in immigration as the draconian immigration policies of Trump could be history. Great for housing and I predict still one more surge, considering the low mortgage rates.
Third, the drug stocks and health insurers no longer have much to fear from a divided Congress with a president who actually favors Obamacare. I think that there will be money showered at the United Healths (UNH) and the Humana (HUM) and Cignas (CI) to get them to write quality insurance anywhere. I think you will see subsidies to them and to you.
Now, again, we aren't sure who wins. It's not been called. But I think the electorate has spoken: They are thrilled that no matter who wins, it looks like there's no lunacy, no craziness, no White House bunker with a huddled harried American style junta that refuses the verdict. There are plenty of challenges coming, but they are of the legal kind and nothing else, no insurrection -- nothing that needs the 101st Airborne or the 82nd for that matter to patrol our cities' streets.
Instead, there are just companies to talk about again, and what we know now is that a red Senate, a blue House, and a blue White House, may be nirvana for growth. Value? You are on your own.
(AAPL, JMP, AMZN, MSFT, FB, and AMD are holdings in Jim Cramer's Action Alerts PLUS member club. Want to be alerted before Jim Cramer buys or sells these stocks? Learn more now.)
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您無法保持增長放緩。您不能賭進步。每當發生這種情況時，無論是在蕭條之中還是在選舉中所遭受的創傷中，您都必須，必須和成長一起發展。
我知道，在整個共和國似乎都依賴少數幾個州的幾張紙的記號的時候，我怎麼能不談論賓夕法尼亞州的計票或2萬票的保證金呢？威斯康星州拜登。
很簡單，我們正在經歷我見過的最偉大的集會之一，這是可以解釋的，如果僅僅是因為一定不能忘記，當您更擔心論文而不是事實時會發生什麼。
這是怎麼發生的？我們有一個最大的假象：無論喜歡與否，人們說話了，而人們比世界上任何其他國家都希望獲得更低的稅收。他們想要現狀。他們似乎厭倦了歷史主義，任性和反复無常的行為，他們想要一個鎮定的政府而不是我們的面孔，並且他們不再想要極端。實際上，我認為昨晚對民主黨中的頑固左派來說是一次巨大的失敗。
好大 我知道，如果民主黨人接管一切，我會為股票會發生什麼而感到震驚。賺錢將非常困難，而且可能會被拿走-那麼為什麼還要花錢買股票呢？
即使隨著計數的到來，標準支持者的選舉似乎越來越可能，藍波失敗的後果是什麼？
讓我們把它們打下來。
首先，現在無法進行即時的藍色波浪刺激。與去那全假論文我告訴你，這摩根大通（JPM）推出了一天，記得一個說，增長是累了，花了，是時候預見到一個更好的經濟性？
除了我告訴你的以外，我還能說些什麼：那些脫離了價值敘事的增長使您損失了一筆財富。銀行，石油和工業-像Caterpillar（CAT）跌了10美元-簡直讓您心碎。是什麼讓您賺最多錢？由於本論文最初發芽，上週被不公平地拋棄的增長股票。
我強調的股票-我認為表現最好的股票-採取了上週應該採取的行動。
亞馬遜（AMZN）的巨額收益令我驚訝，儘管我值得擁有很多積分，但獲得了182美元的大積分，但仍比高點高出200多個點。現在已經彌補了全部損失。它是Covid悲劇的最大受益者，尤其是在它花費了40億美元用於安全和供應鏈安全之後。現在我們喜歡花在安全上。
微軟（MSFT）提供了一系列非凡的數字-特別是其Azure雲部門，但也包括LinkedIn，遊戲和常規Windows-儘管受到了節拍和加薪，但其股票卻被淘汰。太瘋狂了。我認為這可能是微軟有史以來最好，最平衡的季度。但是你不能放棄它。我發現自己和熊們進行太極拳，而吉米·希爾（Jimmy Chill）因喜歡微軟而在Twitter上受到抨擊。星期三，增長的障礙超過了崩潰的地方。
我很心痛，因為我本來可以讀錯Facebook（FB）。我通過Instagram商店看到了小型企業的實力。What's App的增長率很高。來自堅定的Facebook的體面數字。令人眼花亂的地方。但是它受到了打擊，與其他股票一樣，我聽說有負面預測和一定的利潤壓力的談論。我仔細檢查了一下，然後再次仔細檢查了一下。這些反對者要么撒謊，要么不屑一顧。
當Advanced Micro Devices（AMD）報告時，我欣喜若狂。當時的數字是如此完美，以至於該公司同時競購Xilinx（XLNX）的事實也不會損害它。相反，人們像沉沒在沉船上的老鼠一樣拋棄了它。臟老鼠。
也許最糟糕的是蘋果（AAPL）。我正在與蒂姆·庫克（Tim Cook）通話，他釋放了電話號碼，我很高興他不用新電話就可以擁有如此出色的季度。服務收入來源和可穿戴設備銷售如此豐厚，令我驚訝。我對通話中創紀錄的收入感到驚訝。
週三晚上，高通公司剛剛報告了一個怪獸數字，再次對蘋果公司來說是一個好消息。
十分鐘後，我覺得自己像個笨蛋，因為股票因為沒有人知道的原因而倒在我面前，但所有人都願意彌補。現在它讓他們退縮了一些，我認為這只是又一個購買機會，尤其是在我們聽到頂級供應商Skyworks（SWKS）的消息之後，後者暗示一個大客戶正在為其5G手機購買大量零件。週三晚上，高通公司（QCOM）再次報告了一個怪異的數字，這對蘋果公司來說是一個好消息，當然，對於高通公司的所有者來說，這是一個驚人的數字，因為它上漲了19點。下一站，對蘋果來說一直是最高的。
這些告訴你什麼？我認為這是微觀對宏觀人民的影響。或用英語：告訴您轉入銀行，工業和石油的人們再次使您交易大國來購買失敗者。賣壞的。
為什麼在納斯達克（Nasdaq）提出4％的舉動後，我仍然認為還有更多的機會出現，而股東並沒有得到回報。
首先，我曾經為塔拉哈西民主黨和《洛杉磯先驅報》審查員寫itu告。上週我聽到的每一條評論都是這些股票及其云助手已經完成，就像我的ob告一樣。eral儀館：新的，左派左翼的美國國會，將把他們抽籤和安置，並沒收他們的財富，同時使他們的步伐比凱西·貝茨還糟，這使詹姆斯·凱恩的雙腿無用。您可能會無休止地聽到有關如何限制扎克伯格和庫克以及Pichais和Bezos力量的聽證會。那些不在桌子上。將會有一些參加人數不多的表演秀。但是，使零工經濟得以生存的投票倡議的成功，是推動了優步（UBER）和Lyft（LYFT）的成功，更多地在於保持該市場的時代精神。
其次，我們將採取刺激措施，但還不足以彌補病毒引起的酒店業的失業。與此相反，儘管特朗普的嚴厲移民政策可能成為歷史，但移民人數將會增加。非常適合住房，考慮到低抵押貸款利率，我預計還會再增加。
第三，對於實際上支持奧巴馬醫改的總統，分裂的國會不再需要擔心毒品股和健康保險公司。我認為，聯合醫療（UNH），Humana（HUM）和Cignas（CI）會花錢，讓他們在任何地方寫質量保險。我認為您會看到對他們和您的補貼。
再說一次，我們不確定誰贏了。沒有被調用。但是我認為選民已經說過了：他們很高興，無論誰贏了，看起來都沒有什麼瘋子，沒有瘋狂，沒有白宮掩體和一個擁擠的，討厭的美式軍政府，拒絕判決。有很多即將到來的挑戰，但他們是合法的種類和沒有別的，沒有暴動-沒有什麼需要101 ST空降或82次為此事給我們的城市的街道上巡邏。
取而代之的是，只有公司可以再次談論，而我們現在所知道的是，一個紅色的參議院，一個藍色的議院和一個藍色的白宮，可能是增長的必殺技。值？你只能靠自己。
（AAPL，JMP，AMZN，MSFT，FB和AMD在Jim Cramer的Action Alerts PLUS會員俱樂部中擁有股票。要在Jim Cramer買賣這些股票之前被提醒？立即了解更多。）
