戴夫·李談投資

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_i1EBZwwBZc

 

字幕 0:00 hey it's Dave so earlier today Tesla 0:02 announced their Q3 production and 0:04 delivery numbers Tesla produced about 0:07 366 0:08 000 vehicles and they delivered about 0:10 344 0:12 000 vehicles in the quarter both these 0:14 numbers were records for a Tesla now 0:16 expectations for deliveries were higher 0:18 the company provided analysts consensus 0:21 was about 362 0:23 000 deliveries so we're looking at a 0:25 shortfall of about five percent or so so 0:27 let's take a step back how do we make 0:29 sense of these numbers and what are the 0:31 bigger picture implications okay first 0:34 Tesla I think is a different company now 0:36 than they were just a couple years ago 0:38 they hold extremely little debt they are 0:41 cash flow positive and they have growing 0:43 operating profits so there's no need for 0:46 Elon or Tesla management to cater to the 0:48 short-term demands or Expeditions of 0:50 Wall Street also Elon doesn't need to 0:52 try to pump Tesla stock at this point 0:54 that would be a complete waste of time 0:56 his focus should be on innovating and 0:58 driving programs like FSD and Optimus 1:01 because those markets are worth 1:02 trillions of dollars potentially and 1:05 they will determine the long-term future 1:06 of Tesla second let's look at what Tesla 1:08 says about their delivery numbers here 1:10 Tesla is saying that with growing 1:12 volumes it's been increasingly more 1:14 difficult to secure reasonably priced 1:16 vehicle transport at the end of the 1:17 quarter basically Tesla would produce 1:19 their cars that they needed to ship 1:21 further at the beginning of the quarter 1:23 so let's say at Fremont they're sending 1:26 cars to Europe at the beginning of the 1:27 quarter in the middle of the quarter 1:28 they would make cars that let's say they 1:30 would shipped to the other side of the 1:32 country at the end of the quarter for 1:34 Fremont they would make cars for the 1:36 California market and for the Shanghai 1:38 Factory they would make it for the China 1:39 Market the advantage of this approach is 1:41 you might maximize the number of cards 1:44 delivered in a single quarter but that's 1:46 probably one of the only benefits the 1:48 negatives are that Tesla's delivery 1:50 personnel and Tesla centers are flooded 1:52 the last month of the quarter and it 1:54 could be a sub-optimal delivery 1:55 experience for new owners so Tesla is 1:57 trying to even out what they call the 1:59 regional mix of vehicle builds each week 2:01 so basically they want to care less 2:03 about sending cars out to maximize their 2:06 quarterly delivery numbers but just send 2:08 them out more evenly during the quarter 2:10 regardless of their destination alright 2:12 my third take on these delivery numbers 2:13 it's possible that there could have been 2:16 some demand softness in China during 2:18 September as a rumor was that customers 2:20 were waiting out for anticipated price 2:22 drop on the model y so Tesla might have 2:25 shipped more cars out of the Shanghai 2:27 Factory to other countries during 2:28 September I'm not too concerned about 2:30 this because Asia is a big region and 2:33 any weakness in China demand can be 2:35 compensated by shifting deliveries 2:37 elsewhere also Tesla has a lot of levers 2:40 to pull to increase demand if needed the 2:42 Shanghai Factory has great margins and 2:43 they can always lower the price to 2:45 increase demand but personally I'm going 2:47 to hold off on any conclusions until the 2:49 earnings call on October 19th when Tesla 2:52 probably will give some clarification 2:54 alright my fourth take on the delivery 2:56 numbers the bigger picture I don't see 2:58 Tesla missing delivery Expectations by 2:59 five percent as that big of a deal for a 3:03 few reasons first production numbers 3:04 were great over 360 3:07 000 vehicles in a single quarter if you 3:09 annualize that that's over 1.5 million 3:11 vehicle a production run rate second we 3:14 know that Global demand is very strong 3:15 especially in the US recently in the US 3:18 we had the passing of the U.S federal 3:20 tax credit for EVS and that practically 3:23 guarantees demand for Tesla for many 3:25 years to come third all of Tesla's 3:27 financials through Q3 likely will Trend 3:29 upward you have record production 3:31 numbers record delivery numbers record 3:33 probably gross profit and operating 3:35 profit and record ebitda fourth Q4 is 3:38 setting up to be a monster quarter 3:40 Reuters was reporting earlier yesterday 3:42 that internal Tesla documents show that 3:45 they're aiming for 495 000 vehicles in 3:48 Q4 and that's around how much it would 3:50 take to reach their 1.4 million vehicle 3:52 goal for the year and reach 50 year over 3:55 year growth even if they don't make that 3:57 for Q4 still deliveries in the mid 400 3:59 thousands would be Stellar for Tesla's 4:01 financials fifth I don't see Q3 delivery 4:04 numbers as having any negative impact on 4:07 Tesla the company in the near term see 4:09 Wall Street typically might look out 6 4:11 to 12 months and nothing has changed for 4:13 Tesla's 6 to 12 month forecasts because 4:16 of these delivery numbers all right 4:18 lastly I'll close with this volatility 4:20 is expected with stocks especially with 4:22 stocks that have much of their current 4:24 value derived from future earning these 4:26 expectations and then you've got the 4:28 macro impact Tesla isn't an isolated 4:30 company and investors are heavily swayed 4:32 by sentiment and market conditions so 4:34 we're going to see ups and downs and 4:36 sometimes they can be big moves or 4:37 sometimes smaller moves but the question 4:39 I'm asking and the thing I'm keeping my 4:41 eye out on is the health of the 4:43 companies or the companies that I'm 4:44 invested in are they growing their 4:46 markets are their financials healthy are 4:48 they taking risks to expand into new 4:50 markets and are they making truly 4:52 amazing products that leave a 4:53 generational impact all right hope this 4:55 has been helpful guys go ahead like And 4:57 subscribe all my videos can be found as 4:58 an audio podcast as well just search for 5:00 Dave Lee on investing in your favorite 5:02 podcast player I'm also on Twitter at 5:04 Heyday 7. alright we'll see you guys my 5:06 next video thanks

記錄字幕 0:00 嘿，我是戴夫，今天這麼早特斯拉 0:02 宣布他們的第三季度生產和 0:04 特斯拉生產的交付數量約為 0:07 366 0:08 000 輛汽車，他們交付了大約 0:10 344 0:12 本季度有 000 輛汽車 0:14 數字現在是特斯拉的記錄 0:16 對交付的期望更高 0:18 公司提供分析師共識 0:21 大約是 362 0:23 000 次交貨，所以我們正在尋找 0:25 缺口約百分之五左右 0:27 讓我們退後一步，我們如何製作 0:29 這些數字的意義和什麼是 0:31 大局意義 好的，首先 0:34 特斯拉我認為現在是一家不同的公司 0:36 比幾年前 0:38 他們持有的債務極少 0:41 現金流為正，而且還在增長 0:43 營業利潤，所以沒有必要 0:46 埃隆或特斯拉管理層迎合 0:48 短期需求或遠征 0:50 華爾街也不需要埃隆 0:52 嘗試在此時抽出特斯拉股票 0:54 那完全是浪費時間 0:56 他的重點應該是創新和 0:58 駕駛程序，如 FSD 和 Optimus 1:01 因為這些市場值得 1:02 數万億美元的潛在和 1:05 他們將決定長期的未來 1:06 特斯拉的第二個讓我們看看特斯拉是什麼 1:08 在這裡說他們的交貨號碼 1:10 特斯拉說隨著增長 1:12 數量越來越多 1:14 難以獲得合理的價格 1:16 車輛運輸結束 1:17 季度基本上特斯拉會生產 1:19 他們需要運送的汽車 1:21 在本季度初進一步 1:23 所以讓我們說在弗里蒙特他們正在發送 1:26 汽車到歐洲之初 1:27 季度中間的季度 1:28 他們會製造汽車，讓我們說他們 1:30 會運到另一邊 1:32 季度末的國家/地區 1:34 弗里蒙特，他們會為 1:36 加州市場和上海 1:38 他們會為中國製造的工廠 1:39 市場這種方式的優勢是 1:41 你可能會最大化卡片的數量 1:44 在一個季度內交付，但那是 1:46 可能是唯一的好處之一 1:48 缺點是特斯拉的交付 1:50 人員和特斯拉中心被淹 1:52 本季度的最後一個月和它 1:54 可能是次優交付 1:55 新車主的經驗，所以特斯拉是 1:57 試圖平衡他們所說的 1:59 每週車輛製造的區域組合 2:01 所以基本上他們不想在乎 2:03 關於派遣汽車以最大限度地提高他們的 2:06 季度交貨數量，但只是發送 2:08 他們在本季度更均勻 2:10 不管他們的目的地是什麼 2:12 我對這些交貨號碼的第三次接受 2:13 可能有 2:16 期間中國的一些需求疲軟 2:18 九月作為一個謠言是客戶 2:20 正在等待預期的價格 2:22 放棄 y 型，這樣特斯拉可能會有 2:25 將更多汽車運出上海 2:27 工廠到其他國家期間 2:28 九月我不太在意 2:30 這是因為亞洲是一個大地區，而且 2:33 中國需求的任何疲軟都可能 2:35 通過轉移交付進行補償 2:37 在其他地方，特斯拉也有很多槓桿 2:40 必要時拉動以增加需求 2:42 上海工廠利潤豐厚， 2:43 他們總能把價格降到 2:45 增加需求，但我個人會去 2:47 推遲任何結論，直到 2:49 10 月 19 日特斯拉財報電話會議 2:52 可能會給出一些澄清 2:54 好吧，我第四次收貨 2:56 數字是我看不到的更大的圖景 2:58 特斯拉未能交付預期 2:59 百分之五是一筆大買賣 3:03 第一個生產數字的幾個原因 3:04 360 度都很棒 3:07 如果您在一個季度內擁有 000 輛汽車 3:09 年化超過 150 萬 3:11 車輛生產運行率第二我們 3:14 知道全球需求非常強勁 3:15 特別是在美國 最近在美國 3:18 我們有美國聯邦的通過 3:20 EVS的稅收抵免，實際上 3:23 保證了許多人對特斯拉的需求 3:25 未來幾年，特斯拉的第三位 3:27 到第三季度的財務狀況可能會趨勢 3:29 向上你有創紀錄的生產 3:31 號碼記錄交貨號碼記錄 3:33 可能是毛利潤和運營 3:35 第四季度的利潤和創紀錄的 ebitda 是 3:38 建立一個怪物區 3:40 路透社昨天早些時候報導 3:42 特斯拉內部文件顯示 3:45 他們的目標是在 3:48 第四季度，這大約是多少 3:50 到達他們的 140 萬輛汽車 3:52 年度目標並達到 50 歲以上 3:55 年增長，即使他們沒有做到這一點 3:57 對於第四季度仍然在 400 年中交付 3:59 數千將是特斯拉的恆星幣 4:01 財務第五我看不到第三季度的交付 4:04 數字有任何負面影響 4:07 特斯拉公司近期見 4:09 華爾街通常會留意 6 4:11 到 12 個月，沒有任何改變 4:13 特斯拉 6 到 12 個月的預測是因為 4:16 這些交貨號碼中的一個都可以 4:18 最後我會以這種波動結束 4:20 預計股票尤其是 4:22 擁有大部分當前資產的股票 4:24 來自未來賺取這些的價值 4:26 期望，然後你得到了 4:28 宏觀影響特斯拉不是孤立的 4:30 公司和投資者受到嚴重影響 4:32 受情緒和市場狀況的影響 4:34 我們會看到起起落落 4:36 有時它們可能是大動作或 4:37 有時較小的舉動，但問題 4:39 我在問，我要保留的東西 4:41 關注的是健康 4:43 公司或我所在的公司 4:44 投資於他們是否在成長 4:46 市場是他們的財務健康是 4:48 他們冒險擴展到新的 4:50 市場，他們是否真正做到了 4:52 令人驚嘆的產品 4:53 代際影響好吧希望這個 4:55 一直很有幫助的人繼續前進 4:57 訂閱我所有的視頻可以找到 4:58 一個音頻播客也只是搜索 5:00 戴夫·李（Dave Lee）投資您的最愛 5:02 播客播放器，我也在 Twitter 上 5:04 Heyday 7. 好的，我們會看到你們我的 5:06 下個視頻謝謝 中文 (自動產生)