TSLA使股市崩潰？

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/hsr8is/tsla_to_crash_the_stock_market_one_stock_to_rule/

• Initial analogue for teslas potential inclusion was yahoo stock back years ago. Being indexed raised the stock over 50% quite rapidly.
• Teslas inclusion could create a sell-off for some already weakened stocks.
• Joe Biden has announced a $2 trillion fund for renewables with an emphasis on job creation for the next 15 years if he is elected.

Initial analogue for teslas potential inclusion was yahoo stock back years ago. Being indexed raised the stock over 50% quite rapidly. Now say what you like about Wall Street being corrupt and greedy, but they aren’t stupid. The very last thing that they want is added volatility right now for the stock or the broader market. https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1283833796186513411?s=21 Particularly when the earnings per vehicle are absolutely overvalued to begin with, at my last check it was in the $600,000 range of earnings per vehicle.

Looking at the week ahead though we have a more pressing issue; A stock with a good balance sheet, cash on hand, excellent free cash flow, happy customers, excess demand and now they’re missing piece; profitability. If rumours to the facts are correct, 40% profit margin in China, in excess of 30% for the new Y. These financial metrics are complete game changes. So much so that hedge fund analysts have had to call-in help recently from mega cap analysts to sanity check the figures. (There is a citation out that I can’t find right now)

Financial news television was on fire on Wednesday as every channel questioned and interrogated investment fund managers about any holdings that they had. CNBC a great example, having BlackRock’s Rick Rieder on, speaking very nervously about this Tesla stake. He sold out at 1,000 yet still holds a personal stake and even drives a Tesla!
https://twitter.com/squawkcnbc/status/1283363133743128596?s=21

Jim Cramer also arguing with David on the show about being a battery believer and “being aware of a major issue...” Kramer also reiterating his over six month old Stants that oil and gas companies are dead as well. https://youtu.be/HrmrtARhCD4

So, what are these major issues we are looking at here over the next few short weeks?

Gary Black on Twitter has been recovering fairly extensively in the broader implications of changes to the valuation of the stock. In this analysis it shows that the stock beta Is likely to fall from 1.5 to 1.25. https://twitter.com/garyblack00/status/1283038718912352256?s=21

Margin requirements on tesla were tightened and some were tapped out of the market quickly. In Monday’s price spike.
Moody’s rating Agency have also been rumoured to be reviewing teslas credit rating, Which currently sits at “B”.

A looming short squeeze is on the horizon with +500k individual Robbinhood potential bag holders looking to now wait for full year upside earnings of something in the 2,000 range by new analyst estimates.

Beyond this, for S&P inclusions, approximately 1/5 Free float shares are required to be bought by index institutions. Again with an incredibly large number of individual holders of the stock. This combined with a fortresslike balance sheet, comprising of good free cash flow profit and cash on hand make this a difficult thing for index funds to achieve without further upsetting the market. Especially assuming at this very point in time there is no true reasons for Tesla to issue any new shares float or raise capital. Further to this, Rob Mauer of The Street and Tesla Daily Podcast sought comment from an index fund manager familiar with the issue. The anonymous response to this inquiry was “Yes we are aware of this, and we are looking into it” https://youtu.be/JN8PNPBkaWc The current discrepancy by my count, by years end, is as it stands today $22 billion of short position, as well as anything up to $40b or more indexing to be added.

However, we know several things about the looming S&P inclusion. If you go by Rob’s analysis, Teslas current value lifts the entire value of the S&P at this time. It also has skipped the S&P 400 list completely meaning that very few of the existing funds have Tesla shares in the portfolio. However, there are two issues to this as well. Teslas inclusion could create a sell-off for some already weakened stocks.

Many other fund managers including ARK invest, Gerber Kawasaki, famed Investor Ron Barron, and just about everyone else on the street right now still wants to buy in. However the rules around risk mean that they have to contain a balanced portfolio when it comes to the stock. Cathy Wood of ARK Invest famously making a 6000% personal return on Tesla calls at the start of the year. Behind closed doors, it seems that this is not just the hot stock of the moment, but it’s the insane growth stock of the future which is far less risky than the existing beta has led us to believe. With analysis I have seen showing a possible annual run rate of +1.1m capacity for possible for cars, and failing to sell cars, cells can be used for stationary storage, accelerating charging deployment, powerwalls, powerpacks, solar, more software. All with excellent margins. It has been widely cited that the company is supply constrained on all fronts. Doubt it? There are close to 750k cybertruck orders waiting to be filled. Could they deliver 250k in the first 12m run? My engineering & design history says easily.

Beyond this, the broader societal impact of what’s about to happen include having to buy into a extremely profitable business that is pro renewables and pro sustainability. This while devaluing all other assets. Some of the assets that come to mind as less valuable now are rapidly declining future growth potentials for fossil fuel companies. So at this juncture, the idea behind ideology when it comes to risky investments means that $tsla as a stock has now just devalued oil and gas significantly now by proving it’s profitable and expanding far quicker than anyone had thought. This one stock inclusion, by default now devalues everything else. And with $60 billion missing from the share account, or street now has to question which leg they want to chop off to get into the growth for tomorrow.

It’s also no surprise that this week, Joe Biden has announced a $2 trillion fund for renewables with an emphasis on job creation for the next 15 years if he is elected.

Fiat Chrysler group have this week’s been out a new future car start up. And Honda have announced a partnership with CATL batteries.
To top it off, New York city just yesterday announced a $750 million EV charging fund to spur growth in infrastructure.

So now that we have a broad understanding of the setup that confronts us; What is the linchpin here? What is the catalyst that starts this rapid change?

Probably two things, Teslas earnings and reports will Wall Street a very clear black-and-white idea of where the situation currently lies and what is technically possible from this point. But at this point, everyone is wanting to get more Tesla on their balance sheets while off loading dud assets

One way that existing balanced fund managers could play this would be to swap options, Tesla shares For other stocks in the fund portfolio. Doing this would significantly lift the overall fund value while drawing down on Teslas weighting in the fund. This however also drops the value of other investment funds potentially by leaving them with the aforementioned bad oil and gas assets.

Finally, Jim Cramer has indicated a top out on July 28th. As shown here. This after Teslas call on the 22nd. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/14/jim-cramer-charts-suggest-sp-500-climb-will-stall-out-in-late-july.html

How would I play this? NFI. Probably go big on VOL/VIX while this all shakes out. We’re about to see some serious shit.