https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hUWtVNAgK08
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hey it's dave so we've got some really
interesting news this morning about
tesla i'm going to go over four pieces
of news that i think show that tesla is
on a roll first is that the eevee tax
credit has just passed it's a new one
i'll go into some details the optimus
robot elon musk has given some new
comments just yesterday regarding that
we have q3 and q4 volume increase for
just the overall tesla production and
deliveries and then we've got a tesla
stock split coming up next week all
right so first on the ev tax credit so
this is going to be signed into law by
president biden today this is part of
the inflation reduction act of 2022 this
is a new 7 500 tax credit for so-called
clean vehicles there are certain income
requirements and price limits for these
tax credits and further there are also
battery component and mineral sourcing
requirements that will make this tax
credit a bit more restrictive however i
see this as a huge new demand incentive
and stimulus for electric vehicles i
think this is actually the beginning of
the end for ice or internal combustion
engines think about it if you are
automaker why would you invest in old
ice models or let's say you have a new
lineup of an ic car wouldn't you rather
invest in the future which is electric
vehicles and which the government is
giving a big right tax credit for 7 500
let's say on a 30 000 car that's 25
right that the government is just
handing out basically to consumers i
think tesla is actually the best
positioned automaker to take advantage
of these ev tax credits in the us tess
already has strong demand they are the
clear market leader and it's taking them
many many years right to build up their
product their lineup their offerings
their supercharger network their whole
experience right that tesla has further
tesla has the most experience with
large-scale ev productions tesla is
securing mineral and materials contracts
and they've done that for many many
years and they have an integrated
production system right they go from
basically raw materials right battery
cells battery packs into right these
cars and tesla can shift their supply
chains i think the quickest to meet the
requirements of this ev tax credit i
think tesla will see a big demand boost
right for their model 3 and model y cars
what will tesla do i think they're going
to be forced to remove some models right
from order if especially if there's a
waitlist that's too long and they're
going to have to probably raise prices
as this tax credit really just boosts
demand and interest in electric vehicles
overall i think for tesla you're going
to see increased revenue right because
of these test credits over time you're
gonna have increased margins and
increased profits and i think it's gonna
put tesla in a position where they're
gonna need to expedite their ready super
aggressive growth plans all right next
up we have an article in this
publication china cyberspace that elon
musk wrote and he called it believe in
tech creating a better future by elon
musk here and here is an english
translation right of this article i want
to highlight a couple of the quotes that
elon shared regarding tesla bot because
i found those the most interesting he
says tesla bots are initially positioned
to replace people in repetitive boring
and dangerous tasks but the vision is
for them to serve millions of households
such as cooking mowing lawns and caring
for the elderly achieving this goal
requires that robots evolve to be smart
enough and for us to have the ability to
mass produce robots all right so here's
pretty much i think the first time elon
musk is now referring to mass producing
right robots as one of the keys to
the success of optimus robot elon musk
goes on he says we plan to launch the
first prototype of a humanoid robot this
year and focus on improving the
intelligence of that robot and solving
the problem of large-scale production so
here again he highlights one improving
intelligent and second right large-scale
production thereafter humanoid robot's
usefulness will increase early as
production scales and costs fall in the
future a home robot may be cheaper than
a car perhaps in less than a decade
people will be able to buy a robot for
their parents as a birthday gift and
then elon goes on and says it is
foreseeable that with the power of
robots we will create an era of extreme
abundance of goods and services where
everyone can live a life of abundance
perhaps the only scarcity that will
exist in the future is for us to create
ourselves as humans all right so here
elon musk i think is showing his laser
focus and he's showing two things he's
saying that with the humanoid or the
optimus robot they're gonna focus on
improving intelligence and number two
they're gonna focus on bringing down
costs largely through large-scale
production now this is actually really
great news because this is the exact
formula that elon musk has used many
many times in the past to create
multi-billion multi-trillion dollar
markets for example with electric
vehicles that's exactly what elon did he
improved the product and all along he
brought down the cost by bringing a
production same thing with rockets right
with spacex and also a satellite
internet and starlink this is basically
the elon musk approach you improve the
product through ruthless engineering and
innovation and you bring down the cost
right through basically a whole myriad
of cost cutting measures by increasing
production and increasing manufacturing
efficiencies what elon does also is he
brings together the most talented people
possible he gives them super aggressive
goals and he gives them the key which is
innovate by engineering and by focusing
on right these two things improving the
product and lowering costs he gets the
result which is dominance or product
dominance and i think the optimus robot
could be actually the most valuable
product ever not just by tesla or elon
musk but in the history of the world and
we're still in the super early innings
right now all right let's move on to
another piece of bullish news that's
happening but people are kind of
forgetting in the midst of the
day-to-day kind of the volatility of
markets tesla is actually increasing
rapidly their q3 and q4 production and
delivery numbers they're not slowing
down and this growth is going to
continue into 2023. when i look at my q4
projections i'm looking at over 25
billion dollars in revenue just for that
quarter right that's a 100 billion
dollar uh annual run rate a 20
plus operating margin right we have a
five to six billion dollar non-gaap
income and probably a six to seven
billion dollar adjusted eb dot what
we're looking at is huge huge quarterly
numbers and these numbers actually just
increase and get better into 2023 as
tesla ramps their production in a way
tesla is entering this sweet spot where
they're scaling factories they're
growing their model y sales and each
quarter as they increase their
deliveries and increase their revenues
they're showing more and more operating
leverage and this is going to be more
apparent as we enter the next few
quarters overall we have demand that's
increasing because of the electric
vehicle adoption curve we have these new
ev tax credits
all the while tesla is improving their
fsd fsa beta which will lead to a
greater option uptake and all of these
will lead to growing margins all right
last piece of bullish news here is tesla
stock split so tesla stocksbit is coming
up next week right on august 25th tesla
will trade at a new price one third of
its price but tesla shareholders will
get two additional shares for every
tesla share they have now overall this
doesn't change right the fundamental
value of tesla but i think it does show
something in the bigger picture it shows
that a stock price will reward a great
business model here you have tesla
coming out with the best product ever
right in the auto market they have
growing revenues great margins and
profit and this is being rewarded by a
stock price that increases right over
time what's interesting is tesla is
doing this in an auto market right a
market that's been largely discounted
right as a low margin
high capital intensity and very cyclical
people just aren't attracted right to
this so-called non-sexy business but
what tesla's doing is it's reviving and
kind of basically revolutionizing this
whole industry of autos and they're
doing this not just through
manufacturing but they're adding a
technology element and an artificial
intelligence element to this whole thing
and by adding technology right an
artificial intelligence you're
increasing the value of that product
substantially and by a lot and as you
increase that value you're able to
capture that value through revenue
through margins and profit and this
increases right the overall market cap
of your business ten years ago i started
buying tesla right at thirty dollars a
share where most of my shares are at um
in terms of cost basis however with a
five to one stock split a couple years
ago that dropped to six dollars a share
right and now this is dropping to two
dollars a share and we ask what's next
what if tesla does another let's say
four or five to one stock split in the
next few to several years you're gonna
see that original cost basis dropped to
probably under a dollar maybe 50 cents
or so which is crazy to think about but
this shows the power right of a great
business model right having a great
product that just ramps up with revenue
and operating margin and profit and it
shows right the reward that you get in
terms of market cap and ultimately stock
price all right hope this has been
helpful i'm still traveling through the
country i'm entering into montana and
we're going to some national parks here
having a great time we'll see you guys
my next video thanks
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