https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X_gP-KESHEY
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:05 [Music] 0:07 hey it's dave so tesla just ended their 0:09 annual shareholder meeting and elon musk 0:11 shared his thoughts on the recession how 0:14 long it could last on why tesla will 0:16 become the most valuable company in the 0:18 world and what happens if elon musk 0:20 isn't around anymore to run tesla all 0:22 right so first elon musk's thoughts on 0:25 the recession he thinks that we've 0:26 already reached peak inflation and that 0:29 inflation is likely going to drop 0:31 rapidly and this is because he is in 0:33 touch with hundreds if not thousands of 0:35 different suppliers and he understands 0:36 their pricing and he's seen actually 0:38 pricing trending down he thinks that 0:40 there will be a mild to moderate 0:42 recession lasting about 18 months that's 0:45 his best guess because he doesn't think 0:47 there's a fundamental capital 0:48 misallocation in the u.s 0:50 all right on tesla evaluation elon 0:52 thinks that assuming that tesla is able 0:54 to do things like full self driving and 0:56 optimus robot and execute on 0:58 gigafactories he thinks that tesla will 1:00 become the most valuable company in the 1:02 world after hearing that i tweeted that 1:03 i kind of disagree i think actually 1:05 tesla can become the most valuable 1:06 company in the world just with fsc they 1:08 don't actually need optimus robot 1:11 let me explain a few reasons why i think 1:13 tesla can become the most valuable 1:15 company in the world um actually just 1:16 with fsd so we have model y elon says 1:19 the model y is tracking to become the 1:21 world's best-selling car so he thinks 1:23 that model y can be the highest selling 1:26 car best-selling car by revenue in 2022 1:29 and the best-selling car by unit in 2023 1:31 so this is huge i think for tesla he 1:34 thinks that they might announce another 1:35 factory location later this year that 1:38 means they're probably already in the 1:39 final stages right of negotiation 1:41 they've already probably picked their 1:42 next gigafactory location he thinks that 1:45 ultimately there'll be 10 to 12 1:46 different gigafactories each will be 1:48 making 1.5 to 2 million units per 1:50 factory all right so let's dive into 1:52 these model y comments so we know the 1:54 best-selling car in the world by unit 1:56 volume is the corolla right now but 1:58 let's look at how much toyota is 2:00 actually making off the corolla so if 2:02 you look at toyota's operating margin it 2:04 typically runs between 5 2:06 and 10 2:07 right over the last 10 years or so 2:09 however toyota has their lexus brand 2:12 right and that actually is more higher 2:14 margin than um their corolla brand so if 2:16 we just take the corolla cars i would 2:18 expect the corolla operating margin to 2:20 be about five percent right that's how 2:22 much operating profit they would get per 2:25 corolla they sell but if we compare that 2:27 with a model y 2:28 you have the model y getting an 2:30 operating margin of approaching 20 2:32 percent now and this is not including 2:34 fsd or autonomy which actually increases 2:37 the margin even more probably by a 2:39 significant amount so take a step back 2:41 the model y is actually four times more 2:44 profitable than the corolla yet they're 2:46 going to sell more units than the 2:48 corolla right this is the power of 2:49 tesla's business model and on top of 2:51 that if you have fsd and autonomy right 2:54 that operating margin will go up who 2:55 knows maybe tesla can make 10 times the 2:58 amount 2:59 per car than a corolla this is kind of 3:01 why tesla i think can become the most 3:03 valuable company in the world even just 3:05 with fsc our elon musk on the stock 3:07 price he thinks that sometimes people 3:08 fret too much about kind of short-term 3:11 one-off things like for example the 3:12 recent shanghai shutdown he thinks that 3:14 company evaluation is basically future 3:16 cash flows discounted to present value 3:18 then he gives us advice he says when 3:19 people panic take it as a buying 3:22 opportunity i think this is actually 3:23 generally good advice especially with 3:25 generational companies that you know in 3:27 five or 10 years are just going to be 3:29 hugely bigger and are just going to 3:31 execute on right these generational 3:33 products they have whenever there is 3:35 panic whenever people are depressed and 3:37 just selling selling selling left and 3:39 right right that's a buying opportunity 3:41 at least in elon musk's view all right 3:42 next gary black asked this question 3:44 about elon musk's secession and if the 3:47 board is discussing this elon kind of 3:49 sidestepped this and he didn't really 3:51 share if the board is discussing this at 3:52 all but he's saying that tesla has an 3:55 exciting product roadmap that will last 3:57 a long time and elon musk says he 3:59 intends to steal tesla as long as he can 4:01 be useful especially with product design 4:03 manufacturing etc he also thinks tesla 4:05 will continue to do very well without 4:08 him being in the picture it reminds me 4:10 kind of of steve's job setting up right 4:12 the iphone ios 4:14 and 4:15 tim cook coming in right and there's 4:16 already a product roadmap that could 4:18 last at least a decade or even longer 4:20 for tesla you've got an exciting product 4:22 robot right now but you've got new 4:24 vehicles you've got 4:26 fsd you've got optimus and all these 4:28 different things coming together which i 4:30 think is actually a 10 to 20 year 4:32 product roadmap right that someone could 4:33 take over elon musk briefly mentioned 4:35 the master plan part 3 update he says 4:37 maybe within a month or so he could 4:39 release it he says it's basically 4:41 everything that needs to be done in 4:43 order to transition right the economy to 4:45 a fully sustainable economy for example 4:47 the exact tonnage right of materials 4:50 needed and etc next a full self-driving 4:52 update elon says that they're tracking 4:54 to be at over 100 million miles driven 4:56 by the end of the year and expects a 4:58 wide release by request in north america 5:00 by the end of the year which basically 5:01 means that people will probably still 5:03 have to request to enter the beta but 5:05 everyone who asks right can receive fsc 5:07 beta at least in north america all right 5:09 ai day part two elon says lots of cool 5:12 stuff coming people will be blown away 5:14 and i don't doubt this actually i think 5:15 tesla really is becoming an ai 5:17 powerhouse this is one of i think the 5:19 most exciting developments at tesla 5:21 we're going to see a lot more details at 5:23 the end of september elon musk talks 5:25 about optimus robot and he says the 5:27 analysts just aren't getting it how 5:29 important right and valuable this is 5:31 i've talked a lot about this in my 5:33 videos basically elon musk thinks that 5:35 optimus robot is going to be more 5:36 valuable than the car long term and i 5:38 think it could be many times more 5:40 valuable right than the vehicle business 5:42 long term optimist robot has the ability 5:44 to transform the economy especially if 5:47 you can just whip out these robots there 5:48 is no more labor constraint right these 5:50 robots can make robots it kind of gets 5:52 into this crazy trippy possible world 5:54 right in the future but yeah if um tesla 5:57 succeeds with optimus rod i think it's 5:59 definitely going to be their biggest and 6:00 most important and most ambitious 6:02 product ever elon was asked about how 6:04 tesla will use their increasing cash 6:06 balance in the future he says he's open 6:08 to acquiring interesting companies but 6:10 it's quite rare that tesla will acquire 6:12 a company but he's interested in 6:14 automation software manufacturing tech 6:16 right those companies interest him he 6:18 says tesla's already spending capex or 6:20 capital expenditures and r d research 6:22 and development as fast as possible and 6:25 this is what is interesting he says that 6:26 a share buyback is possible and it's 6:28 actually on the table he just wants to 6:30 make sure that tesla has enough cash 6:32 balance in case of a force major event 6:35 for example like an extended factory 6:37 shutdown i think this is really 6:38 interesting because if tesla announces a 6:40 share buyback it could start small right 6:42 let's say five or 10 billion dollars 6:44 over the course of two years or 6:45 something i think this is really an 6:47 interesting trend that i'm looking 6:48 forward to all right cyber check update 6:50 elon says that the specs and pricing 6:52 will be different than the reveal and he 6:54 cites inflation so basically so cyber 6:57 truck will be more expensive right than 6:58 initially announced he says that they 7:00 will begin installation of tooling at 7:02 austin in the next few months and that 7:04 they're aiming for a volume production 7:06 um sometime mid next year right on 7:08 twitter elon says he uses it a lot he 7:10 understands the product well he thinks 7:12 he can make it radically better and that 7:14 he has a grander vision it's kind of 7:16 what x.com could have been 7:18 his previous company and he thinks 7:20 acquiring twitter could accelerate right 7:22 that vision by three to five years but 7:25 it doesn't seem like he's dead set on 7:26 acquiring it but it seems like he's 7:28 still willing to acquire twitter all 7:30 right lastly i want to go over the 7:31 proposals at the stockholder meeting 7:33 what passed and what didn't so the first 7:35 section is the tesla proposals these 7:37 five here and um three out of the five 7:39 passed two of them didn't it's because 7:42 they didn't reach the two-thirds minimum 7:45 requirement of the outstanding shares 7:47 that are needed to vote for right these 7:49 are these two proposals um under 7:51 stockholder proposals 7:54 number six item passed and this is 7:56 actually significant because everything 7:58 else felt failed so what is this 8:00 proposal six is basically the 8:02 shareholders request our board of 8:03 directors to take the steps necessary to 8:05 enable shareholders without limits on 8:07 group size to aggregate their shares to 8:09 equal three percent of our stock owned 8:11 continuously for three years to enable 8:12 shareholder proxy access proxy access 8:15 enables shareholders to put competing 8:17 director candidates on the company 8:19 ballot to see if they can get more votes 8:21 than some of the management director 8:23 candidates so basically the proposal is 8:25 saying a couple things first that funds 8:27 can pull together right their shares to 8:29 vote but not only that they can gain 8:31 access to put competing director 8:33 candidates up for nomination 8:35 and yeah i'm not too hot on that i think 8:37 elon musk has proven 8:39 that he's doing 8:40 well in leading tesla and in my opinion 8:43 i think the board needs to mesh and jive 8:45 with elon and 8:47 not too cool with let's say a group of 8:48 let's say big you know funds getting 8:51 together or nominating a director maybe 8:52 pushing the vote and that person not 8:55 jiving with tesla's culture and with 8:57 elon musk i think it really could create 8:58 some tension and conflict in the 9:00 board however this proposal did pass 9:03 unfortunately all right hope all of this 9:05 has been helpful if it has good like and 9:06 subscribe all my videos can be found as 9:08 an audio podcast as well just search for 9:10 dave lee on investing in your favorite 9:12 podcast player i'm also on twitter at 9:13 heyday7 and for those wondering i'm out 9:16 here in western washington out in 9:18 olympic national park doing some 9:20 wilderness and rainforest camping it's 9:22 actually fantastic my kids are having a 9:23 great time and it's been great to take a 9:25 step back and reflect on life and the 9:28 greater meaning of things all right 9:29 we'll see you guys my next video thanks 9:38 you 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0:05 [音樂] 0:07 嘿，這是戴夫，所以特斯拉剛剛結束了他們的 0:09 年度股東大會和埃隆馬斯克 0:11 分享了他對經濟衰退的看法 0:14 為什麼特斯拉會持續多久？ 0:16 成為最有價值的公司 0:18 世界和如果埃隆馬斯克會發生什麼 0:20 不再運行特斯拉了 0:22 對，所以首先埃隆馬斯克的想法是 0:25 他認為我們的經濟衰退 0:26 已經達到通貨膨脹高峰，並且 0:29 通脹可能會下降 0:31 很快，這是因為他在 0:33 接觸數百甚至數千 0:35 不同的供應商，他理解 0:36 他們的定價，他實際上已經看到了 0:38 價格呈下降趨勢，他認為 0:40 會有輕度到中度 0:42 持續約 18 個月的衰退 0:45 他最好的猜測，因為他不認為 0:47 有基本資本 0:48 在美國分配不當 0:50 好吧，特斯拉評估埃隆 0:52 認為假設特斯拉能夠 0:54 做一些事情，比如全自動駕駛和 0:56 擎天柱機器人並執行 0:58 他認為特斯拉會的超級工廠 1:00 成為最有價值的公司 1:02 聽到我發推文後的世界 1:03 我有點不同意我認為實際上 1:05 特斯拉可以成為最有價值的 1:06 世界上只有FSC的公司他們 1:08 實際上不需要擎天柱機器人 1:11 讓我解釋一下我認為的幾個原因 1:13 特斯拉可以成為最有價值的 1:15 世界上的公司實際上只是 1:16 有了 fsd，所以我們有模型 y elon 說 1:19 模型 y 正在跟踪成為 1:21 世界上最暢銷的汽車，所以他認為 1:23 那個型號y可能是銷量最高的 1:26 2022年按收入計算的最暢銷汽車 1:29 以及 2023 年按單位計算的最暢銷汽車 1:31 所以這對特斯拉來說是巨大的 1:34 認為他們可能會宣布另一個 1:35 今年晚些時候的工廠位置 1:38 意味著他們可能已經在 1:39 最後階段的談判權 1:41 他們可能已經選擇了他們的 1:42 他認為的下一個超級工廠位置 1:45 最終會有 10 到 12 1:46 每個將有不同的超級工廠 1:48 每生產 1.5 到 200 萬個單位 1:50 工廠好吧，讓我們深入了解 1:52 這些模型 y 評論，所以我們知道 1:54 世界上最暢銷的汽車（按單位） 1:56 音量現在是花冠，但是 1:58 讓我們看看豐田多少錢 2:00 實際上把花冠弄掉了，所以如果 2:02 你看看豐田的營業利潤率吧 2:04 通常在 5 之間運行 2:06 和 10 2:07 就在過去 10 年左右 2:09 但是豐田有他們的雷克薩斯品牌 2:12 對，實際上更高 2:14 利潤比他們的卡羅拉品牌好，所以如果 2:16 我們只坐我想要的卡羅拉汽車 2:18 預計卡羅拉營業利潤率為 2:20 大約百分之五是對的 2:22 他們將獲得多少營業利潤 2:25 花冠他們賣，但如果我們比較一下 2:27 與模型 y 2:28 你有模型 y 得到一個 2:30 營業利潤率接近20 2:32 現在百分比，這不包括 2:34 fsd 或實際增加的自治權 2:37 利潤更可能是 2:39 大量所以退後一步 2:41 y型實際上是四倍 2:44 比花冠有利可圖，但他們 2:46 將銷售更多的單位比 2:48 花冠對了，這就是力量 2:49 特斯拉的商業模式和之上 2:51 如果你有 fsd 和自主權 2:54 那營業利潤率會上升誰 2:55 知道也許特斯拉可以賺到 10 倍 2:58 數量 2:59 每輛車比花冠這是一種 3:01 為什麼我覺得特斯拉能成為最 3:03 世界上有價值的公司，即使只是 3:05 fsc 我們的伊隆麝香在股票上 3:07 價格他認為有時人們 3:08 過於擔心短期的 3:11 一次性的東西，例如 3:12 最近上海停工 他認為 3:14 公司評價基本是未來 3:16 現金流量折現至現值 3:18 然後他給我們建議他說什麼時候 3:19 人們恐慌將其視為購買 3:22 機會我認為這實際上是 3:23 通常是好的建議，尤其是 3:25 你認識的幾代公司 3:27 五年或十年將是 3:29 大得多，而且只是要去 3:31 正確執行這些世代 3:33 他們隨時都有的產品 3:35 每當人們沮喪和恐慌時 3:37 只賣 賣 賣 左 和 3:39 對，對，這是一個買入機會 3:41 至少在伊隆馬斯克看來，沒問題 3:42 下一個加里·布萊克問了這個問題 3:44 關於伊隆馬斯克的分裂以及如果 3:47 董事會正在討論這種埃隆 3:49 迴避了這一點，他並沒有 3:51 如果董事會正在討論這個問題，請分享 3:52 除了他說特斯拉有一個 3:55 令人興奮的產品路線圖將持續下去 3:57 很長一段時間，埃隆馬斯克說他 3:59 打算盡可能地偷特斯拉 4:01 尤其適用於產品設計 4:03 製造等他也認為特斯拉 4:05 將繼續做得很好 4:08 他在照片裡這讓我想起了 4:10 史蒂夫的工作設置正確 4:12 iphone ios 4:14 和 4:15 蒂姆庫克進來了 4:16 已經是一個產品路線圖，可以 4:18 至少持續十年甚至更長 4:20 對於特斯拉，你有一個令人興奮的產品 4:22 機器人現在，但你有新的 4:24 你擁有的車輛 4:26 fsd 你有擎天柱和所有這些 4:28 不同的東西融合在一起，我 4:30 想想其實是10到20年 4:32 有人可以的產品路線圖 4:33 接管伊隆馬斯克簡要提到 4:35 他說的總體規劃第 3 部分更新 4:37 也許在一個月左右的時間內，他可以 4:39 釋放它 他說它基本上是 4:41 需要做的一切 4:43 為了使經濟正確地過渡到 4:45 例如，完全可持續的經濟 4:47 材料的確切噸位權 4:50 需要等下一個完全自動駕駛 4:52 更新 Elon 說他們正在跟踪 4:54 行駛里程超過 1 億英里 4:56 到今年年底，並預計 4:58 在北美應要求廣泛發布 5:00 到年底基本上 5:01 意味著人們可能仍然 5:03 必須要求進入測試版，但 5:05 要求正確的人都可以獲得fsc 5:07 至少在北美測試版 好吧 5:09 AI Day 第二部分 Elon 說的很酷 5:12 東西來的人會被吹走 5:14 我並不懷疑這實際上我認為 5:15 特斯拉真的要變成人工智能了 5:17 發電站這是我認為的之一 5:19 特斯拉最激動人心的發展 5:21 我們將在 5:23 9月底伊隆馬斯克會談 5:25 關於擎天柱機器人，他說 5:27 分析師只是不明白如何 5:29 重要的權利和寶貴的這是 5:31 我在我的 5:33 視頻基本上伊隆馬斯克認為 5:35 擎天柱機器人將會更多 5:36 從長遠來看，比汽車更有價值，我 5:38 認為可能會多很多倍 5:40 比車輛業務更有價值的權利 5:42 長期樂觀的機器人有能力 5:44 改變經濟，特別是如果 5:47 你可以在那裡抽出這些機器人 5:48 這些不再是勞動力限制了嗎 5:50 機器人可以製造它得到的機器人 5:52 進入這個瘋狂的迷幻可能世界 5:54 就在未來，但如果嗯特斯拉 5:57 擎天柱成功了，我認為是 5:59 肯定會成為他們最大的 6:00 最重要和最雄心勃勃的 6:02 產品曾經 elon 被問及如何 6:04 特斯拉將使用他們不斷增加的現金 6:06 未來的平衡 他說他是開放的 6:08 收購有趣的公司，但 6:10 特斯拉很少會收購 6:12 一家公司，但他對 6:14 自動化軟件製造技術 6:16 對，那些公司對他感興趣，他 6:18 說特斯拉已經在支出資本支出或 6:20 資本支出和研發研究 6:22 和盡可能快的發展和 6:25 這就是他所說的有趣之處 6:26 股票回購是可能的 6:28 實際上他只是想在桌子上 6:30 確保特斯拉有足夠的現金 6:32 發生部隊重大事件時的平衡 6:35 例如像一個擴展工廠 6:37 關機我認為這真的是 6:38 有趣，因為如果特斯拉宣布 6:40 股票回購它可以從小處著手 6:42 比方說 5 或 100 億美元 6:44 在兩年內或 6:45 我認為這真的是一個 6:47 我正在尋找的有趣趨勢 6:48 轉發到好的網絡檢查更新 6:50 elon 說規格和價格 6:52 將與揭露不同，他 6:54 引用通貨膨脹，所以基本上如此網絡 6:57 卡車會比 6:58 最初宣布他說他們 7:00 將開始安裝工具 7:02 奧斯汀在接下來的幾個月裡 7:04 他們的目標是量產 7:06 嗯，明年年中的某個時候 7:08 twitter 埃隆說他經常使用它 7:10 非常了解他認為的產品 7:12 他可以讓它變得更好，而且 7:14 他有一個更宏大的願景 7:16 x.com 可能是什麼 7:18 他以前的公司，他認為 7:20 收購推特可能會加速 7:22 三到五年的願景，但 7:25 他似乎並沒有死心塌地 7:26 獲得它，但似乎他是 7:28 仍然願意全部收購推特 7:30 最後我想回顧一下 7:31 股東大會上的提案 7:33 什麼過去了，什麼沒有 7:35 部分是特斯拉建議這些 7:37 這裡有五個，五個中的三個 7:39 通過了其中兩個不是因為 7:42 他們沒有達到最低三分之二 7:45 流通股要求 7:47 需要投票支持這些 7:49 這兩個提案是不是在 7:51 股東提案 7:54 第六項通過，這是 7:56 實際上很重要，因為一切 7:58 否則感覺失敗了，這是什麼 8:00 提案六基本上是 8:02 股東要求我們的董事會 8:03 董事採取必要措施 8:05 使股東不受限制 8:07 將他們的份額匯總到的組大小 8:09 相當於我們擁有的股票的百分之三 8:11 連續三年使 8:12 股東代理訪問 代理訪問 8:15 使股東能夠將競爭 8:17 公司董事候選人 8:19 投票看看他們是否可以獲得更多的選票 8:21 比一些管理總監 8:23 候選人，所以基本上提案是 8:25 先說幾件事 8:27 可以把他們的股份集中起來 8:29 投票，但不僅他們可以獲得 8:31 進入競爭董事 8:33 候選人提名 8:35 是的，我認為我並不太熱心 8:37 伊隆馬斯克已經證明 8:39 他在做什麼 8:40 在我看來，在領導特斯拉方面做得很好 8:43 我認為董事會需要嚙合和跳動 8:45 與伊隆和 8:47 比方說一組不太酷 8:48 比方說大你知道資金得到 8:51 一起或提名董事 8:52 推動投票而那個人沒有 8:55 與特斯拉的文化和與 8:57 伊隆馬斯克我認為它真的可以創造 8:58 一些緊張和衝突 9:00 董事會，但該提案確實通過了 9:03 不幸的是一切都好希望這一切 9:05 如果它有很好的喜歡和 9:06 訂閱我所有的視頻可以找到 9:08 一個音頻播客也只是搜索 9:10 戴夫李投資你最喜歡的 9:12 播客播放器我也在推特上 9:13 heyday7 對於那些想知道我出局的人 9:16 在華盛頓西部的這裡 9:18 奧林匹克國家公園做一些 9:20 荒野和雨林露營 9:22 實際上太棒了，我的孩子們有一個 9:23 美好的時光，很高興參加 9:25 退後一步，反思生活和 9:28 事情的更大意義沒事 9:29 我們下個視頻再見 謝謝 9:38 你 英語（自動生成） 全部最近上傳
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