https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q6Uzg4NxpGI
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Transcript 0:05 hello everyone i'm sam kors i'm an 0:08 analyst at arc invest and i work on our 0:10 autonomous technology and robotics team 0:13 i focus on the technologies of energy 0:15 storage robotics 0:17 and aerospace 0:19 but today the big idea is electric 0:21 vehicles and i'm really excited to get 0:24 started to talk about them 0:26 we just got numbers final numbers for 0:28 2021 0:29 and they were higher than i think a lot 0:31 of people expected and so we'll get into 0:33 why that may be the case and where we 0:35 see the industry going 0:37 so electric vehicles are in route to 0:40 sticker price parity with gas powered 0:42 cars 0:43 this is going to be a big deal because 0:44 that's really the tipping point for 0:46 demand 0:47 and currently the two biggest 0:50 uh bottlenecks really for people 0:52 purchasing an eev are you know the 0:54 upfront price being too high and people 0:56 have a lot of range anxiety 0:58 but looking at the technology we're 0:59 seeing that costs are coming down 1:02 and we're seeing that ranges are going 1:04 up and charging times are also 1:05 decreasing 1:07 so based on wright's law and that's that 1:09 battery cost decline curve that we're 1:12 talking about we're forecasting that 1:14 there will be 40 million electric 1:16 vehicles sold in 2026 1:20 that's up from 4.8 million electric 1:22 vehicles sold in 2021 1:25 that comes out to about a 53 percent 1:28 annual growth rate which is very 1:30 impressive 1:31 uh and really the biggest risk to this 1:33 is whether or not traditional automakers 1:36 can successfully transition from 1:38 gas-powered vehicles to autonomous 1:41 electric vehicles 1:42 so where does it all start 1:46 it starts 1:48 with wright's law 1:50 and the battery cost decline so what is 1:53 wright's law wright's law is that for 1:56 every cumulative doubling in production 1:58 you get a fixed percent cost decline 2:01 and that's what we're seeing here on the 2:03 chart on the left and that fixed percent 2:05 cost decline for lithium-ion batteries 2:07 is 28 2:09 so a 28 2:10 cost decline for every doubling 2:12 cumulative doubling uh and why the 2:15 battery you know there's a lot of parts 2:17 that go into an electric vehicle 2:19 the reason we're choosing the battery is 2:21 because it's the single largest cost 2:23 component of the electric vehicle so it 2:25 typically makes up roughly 20 to 25 2:28 percent of the total cost of the vehicle 2:30 so by looking at the cost decline for 2:32 that component 2:34 you can get a pretty good sense for the 2:36 total cost to produce the vehicle 2:38 uh what we've really done this year and 2:41 how we've extended our research relative 2:43 to last year is by looking at lithium 2:45 iron phosphate cells 2:47 and so on the chart on the left you'll 2:49 see that there's two lines there the top 2:51 line is looking at nickel cells 2:54 and the bottom line is looking at these 2:56 lithium iron phosphate cells 2:58 and the difference here is that nickel 3:00 cells are more energy dense 3:03 but they're more expensive 3:04 and so what does more energy dense mean 3:06 in an electric vehicle 3:08 it means that all else being the same uh 3:10 you have more energy per unit of mass so 3:13 you should have a longer range 3:15 uh but with the lithium iron phosphate 3:18 cell 3:19 uh you get a much cheaper battery cost 3:22 and it's at a lower production base and 3:24 that's where we look at the chart on the 3:26 right and we see that 3:27 uh by using lithium iron phosphate not 3:30 only is it already cheaper but it 3:32 requires fewer vehicles 3:35 to reach that cumulative doubling 3:37 and get another cost decline by 28 3:41 and so what we think is going to happen 3:43 is that you're going to have a somewhat 3:46 of a split in 3:49 automakers who have the efficiency such 3:51 that they can use 3:53 a lithium iron phosphate cell because 3:56 they have the efficiency so they can use 3:58 the less energy dense cheaper cell and 4:00 still reach an acceptable range 4:03 whereas you'll have people who are 4:05 laggards in the industry who will still 4:07 be using that more expensive cell to to 4:10 achieve the same level of range 4:12 and that could provide some interesting 4:14 dynamics 4:17 and all of this is driving to that 4:19 tipping point that we're talking about 4:21 and when electric vehicles could hit uh 4:24 that 4:25 price parity with uh 4:28 gas powered cars and we think that this 4:31 is could occur in 2023 4:33 but what you'll see here is that we're 4:35 actually focusing on cost and we'll get 4:38 into that in a second and the reason 4:40 that this is so important is that we've 4:42 already passed the point with total cost 4:45 of ownership 4:46 back in 2019 uh we did modeling that 4:49 showed that 4:50 it was already cheaper for a like for 4:52 like electric vehicle relative to a 4:54 toyota camry and you can see that with a 4:56 number of fleet orders whether it's taxi 4:59 companies 5:00 uber drivers 5:02 police departments who are shifting over 5:04 to electric vehicles 5:05 because of that 5:06 total cost of ownership 5:08 but then the the price parity matters 5:10 because this is the point when you'd go 5:12 into a car dealership and 5:15 the car dealer says you know do you want 5:16 this electric uh vehicle that's 24 000 5:20 or do you want this gas-powered one it's 5:22 identical except for it's gas powered 5:23 and it's 25 000. 5:25 at that point it's uh you know we think 5:28 it's a no-brainer where demand starts to 5:30 tip over 5:31 uh but the reason that we're focusing on 5:33 cost in this chart uh is because the 5:36 technology cost declines are very clear 5:38 but the dynamics for price could be a 5:41 little bit harder to predict and we 5:43 could see a few different things taking 5:45 place 5:46 so already today we're seeing that 5:49 demand for electric vehicles is 5:50 exceeding supply and so you need 5:53 competition potentially to drive down 5:55 these costs or the price um so people 5:59 are competing and the consumer wins from 6:00 that element what we're seeing is that 6:02 traditional automakers 6:04 are pretty behind when it's coming to 6:06 this transition 6:08 and there's talks of subsidies coming in 6:10 and so if a subsidy comes in and you 6:12 have traditional automakers uh who now 6:15 are producing vehicles profitably 6:17 because of that subsidy but they're not 6:19 really passing that subsidy on to the 6:21 consumer they're just raising the price 6:23 of their own vehicles and that could 6:25 make it so that there's less competition 6:27 and the prices don't come down 6:29 but the costs are still coming down and 6:31 whoever's able to ride that cost decline 6:34 curve 6:35 could have extra normal margins in that 6:37 interim so that's why we're focusing on 6:39 cost and then the last thing i'll call 6:40 out here 6:41 is that most people think you know price 6:44 parity is this end point the battery 6:47 cost will come down and then they'll 6:49 stay level with gas powered cars 6:52 that's not what happens 6:54 the cost decline should continue and so 6:56 you can see that in 2025 6:58 we think that it's going to be 7:00 you know 25 to 35 cheaper to produce an 7:03 electric vehicle relative to the gas 7:05 powered counterpart 7:10 so we were just talking about you know 7:12 vehicle price and costs which is one 7:14 barrier to entry for consumers and the 7:17 other is range anxiety 7:19 and what we see here is that wright's 7:21 law also models improvements in electric 7:24 vehicle charging rates and so the 7:26 ability to charge an ev quickly is 7:28 impacted not just by the vehicle and 7:32 the power electronics there but by the 7:33 charging infrastructure 7:35 uh and what you can see is that you know 7:37 since 7:38 you know very early days in the auto 7:40 industry in 1915 uh all the way through 7:44 last year 2021 there's been pretty 7:46 consistent improvement in charging rate 7:49 uh and we think that this is going to 7:50 continue through 7:52 2026 7:54 and you know a lot of money is being 7:56 invested in improving this metric 7:59 because 8:00 you know we do see that it's a hang up 8:01 for consumers 8:03 but it you can imagine that after 2026 8:06 or in that time frame once you reach a 8:09 point where 8:10 you know it takes 10 minutes to charge 8:12 your electric vehicle 8:14 there's going to be marginal return on 8:16 investment for bringing that down to 9 8:18 minutes 8:19 or 8 minutes and we could see that the 8:22 industry will optimize for other 8:23 features potentially autonomous driving 8:26 maybe more safety 8:28 and then you know other entertainment 8:30 and how to keep you occupied if it is 8:32 autonomous 8:37 so what does the industry look like um 8:40 eb performance is improving you just saw 8:43 that with charging rates 8:44 uh but it's charging across a number of 8:47 metrics and what's interesting though is 8:49 that you know it's not improving 8:51 uniformly across all automakers 8:54 and we can see that uh the median 8:56 performance of electric vehicles in 2021 8:59 is approaching tesla's performance in 9:01 2018. uh so this is you know kind of 9:04 where we get that sense of tesla being 9:06 three years ahead of the rest of the 9:08 industry 9:10 and when you look at the y-axis here 9:13 you can see the way that we're defining 9:15 this index is looking at charging rate 9:17 divided by vehicle cost and that's not 9:20 because charging rate is that important 9:22 in and of itself though you know people 9:25 like cars that charge fast it's because 9:27 charging rate encapsulates the 9:29 efficiency of the vehicle 9:30 the range of the vehicle uh and the 9:32 power capabilities of the vehicle 9:35 and so 9:36 uh there's been this continued 9:38 improvement and if we look to the right 9:40 we can see that you know these trends 9:42 should continue uh and we think there 9:44 will be a roughly eightfold increase in 9:46 performance 9:48 of electric vehicles uh over the next 9:50 five years and what does this 9:53 performance look like on this uh index 9:56 you know it comes back to you know the 9:58 way that we were just describing it it 10:00 could be faster charging it could be a 10:02 cheaper vehicle uh and for some it will 10:05 be uh incredible performance 10:08 you know super fast acceleration 10:10 uh and you know we believe that 10:12 autonomous could take shape in that time 10:15 frame 10:19 so with all of these improvements we're 10:21 seeing electric vehicles continue to 10:24 take share from gas-powered vehicles uh 10:26 and it's pretty remarkable in 2021 10:29 ev sales soared they were up 112 10:32 year-over-year while gas-powered sales 10:35 were estimated to be up just 1.7 10:38 off of you know very uh depressed levels 10:41 from covid and so just looking at this 10:44 chart i think it becomes fairly clear 10:47 that 10:49 the incremental demand for vehicles is 10:51 going towards electric 10:53 and it's interesting to think you know 10:55 right now people are all talking about 10:57 the 10:58 semiconductor chip shortage and to think 11:01 that you know there's this shortage but 11:03 by the time that's resolved where is the 11:06 demand is there true demand for gas 11:08 powered vehicles 11:10 back to where people are expecting 11:12 or 11:13 is it actually going to be electric 11:15 and then the need for these gas-powered 11:18 vehicles 11:19 may not be as strong as people expected 11:24 the other thing you'll notice here is 11:26 that the growth rates are not what you'd 11:28 expect even even from a disruptive 11:31 technology 11:32 there they went from 69 in 2018 to 112 11:36 percent in 2021 11:38 and what we're seeing is that electric 11:40 vehicles are breaking traditional 11:42 s-curve dynamics so in this chart on the 11:44 left 11:45 you're seeing that a traditional s-curve 11:49 and you see even in the very early years 11:51 with high growth rate 11:52 there's a declining year-over-year 11:55 growth great every year so it goes 140 11:57 138 135 12:00 and with electric vehicle sales they've 12:02 gone from 60 in 2013 12:06 and now they're at 112 12:08 in 2021 and the reason for that is that 12:11 we're seeing uh layered s-curves on top 12:13 of each other as new electric vehicles 12:16 enter different price segments and so 12:18 it's coming at the high end and it 12:20 started that adoption curve and then you 12:22 got the cheaper vehicle 12:23 more mid-range 12:25 and it started that adoption curve 12:27 and it's leading to tremendous 12:29 accelerating growth 12:31 so 12:32 to to sum it all up you know if 12:34 traditional automakers can navigate the 12:36 shift from gas-powered vehicles 12:40 to electric we think that ev sales could 12:43 increase eightfold from 4.8 million 12:46 to 40 million during the next five years 12:49 that's a 53 compound annual growth rate 12:52 and would be a 1.2 trillion dollar uh 12:56 revenue opportunity in 2026. uh one of 12:59 the last things i'll leave for you here 13:02 is that an interesting dynamic that 13:03 we're seeing 13:05 is the emergence of neighborhood 13:06 electric vehicles and so these are 13:08 vehicles that aren't designed to go on 13:10 the highway they're extraordinarily 13:12 inexpensive 13:14 and they're ramping extremely quickly 13:16 and so in china there's a mini ev that 13:20 went from five percent share of the 13:22 battery electric vehicle market 13:24 to nine percent uh in the past year and 13:27 we think that these will continue to 13:28 take off and could be a significant part 13:30 of those 40 million units 13:33 so that's the 13:34 electric vehicle section i hope you 13:36 enjoyed the research 13:38 as always you can reach us on twitter 13:40 and check out more research at arc 13:42 dashingbest.com 13:58 you
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成績單0:05 大家好，我是 sam kors，我是 0:08 arc 投資的分析師，我在我們的 0:10 自主技術和機器人團隊
0:13 我專注於能源技術 0:15 存儲機器人 0:17 和航空航天 0:19 但今天的大創意是電動的 0:21 車輛，我真的很高興得到 0:24 開始談論他們 0:26 我們剛剛得到了最終數字 0:28 2021 0:29 他們比我想像的要高很多 0:31 預期的人，所以我們將進入 0:33 為什麼會這樣，我們在哪裡 0:35 看到行業發展 0:37 所以電動汽車正在走向 0:40 燃氣動力的標價平價 0:42 汽車 0:43 這將是一件大事，因為 0:44 這真的是轉折點 0:46 要求 0:47 和目前最大的兩個 0:50 呃瓶頸真的對人來說 0:52 購買 eev 你知道嗎 0:54 前期價格太高而且人多 0:56 有很多範圍焦慮 0:58 但看看我們的技術 0:59 看到成本正在下降 1:02 我們看到範圍正在擴大 1:04 起來和充電時間也是 1:05 遞減 1:07 所以基於賴特定律，就是這樣 1:09 我們的電池成本下降曲線 1:12 談論我們正在預測 1:14 將有4000萬電 1:16 2026 年售出的車輛 1:20 這比 480 萬電 1:22 2021年售出的車輛 1:25 結果約為 53% 1:28 年增長率非常 1:30 感人的 1:31 呃，這真的是最大的風險 1:33 是不是傳統汽車製造商 1:36 可以成功地從 1:38 汽油動力汽車到自動駕駛 1:41 電動汽車 1:42 那麼這一切從哪裡開始 1:46 開始 1:48 與賴特定律 1:50 和電池成本下降所以什麼是 1:53 賴特定律 賴特定律是 1:56 產量每累計翻一番 1:58 你得到一個固定百分比的成本下降 2:01 這就是我們在這裡看到的 2:03 左邊的圖表和那個固定的百分比 2:05 鋰離子電池成本下降 2:07 是 28 2:09 所以28 2:10 每翻一番成本下降 2:12 累積加倍呃以及為什麼 2:15 電池你知道有很多零件 2:17 進入電動汽車 2:19 我們選擇電池的原因是 2:21 因為這是最大的單一成本 2:23 電動汽車的組成部分，所以它 2:25 通常構成大約 20 到 25 2:28 車輛總成本的百分比 2:30 因此，通過查看成本下降 2:32 那個組件 2:34 你可以很好地理解 2:36 生產車輛的總成本 2:38 呃我們今年真的做了什麼 2:41 我們如何擴展我們的研究相對 2:43 到去年是通過查看鋰 2:45 磷酸鐵細胞 2:47 等等左邊的圖表你會 2:49 看到上面有兩條線 2:51 生產線正在尋找鎳電池 2:54 最重要的是看這些 2:56 磷酸鐵鋰電池 2:58 這裡的區別是鎳 3:00 細胞能量密度更高 3:03 但它們更貴 3:04 那麼能量密度更高是什麼意思 3:06 在電動汽車中 3:08 這意味著其他一切都是一樣的 3:10 你每單位質量有更多的能量，所以 3:13 你應該有更長的範圍 3:15 呃，但是用磷酸鐵鋰 3:18 細胞 3:19 呃，你會得到便宜得多的電池成本 3:22 而且它的生產基地較低 3:24 這就是我們查看圖表的地方 3:26 對，我們看到了 3:27 呃通過使用磷酸鐵鋰不是 3:30 只是它已經便宜了，但它 3:32 需要更少的車輛 3:35 達到累積翻倍 3:37 並獲得另一次成本下降 28 3:41 所以我們認為將會發生的事情 3:43 是你會有點 3:46 分裂的 3:49 有效率的汽車製造商 3:51 他們可以使用 3:53 磷酸鐵鋰電池，因為 3:56 他們有效率，所以他們可以使用 3:58 能量密度越低越便宜的電池和 4:00 仍然達到可接受的範圍 4:03 而你會有人 4:05 行業落後者仍將 4:07 使用那個更昂貴的電池來 4:10 達到相同的範圍 4:12 這可以提供一些有趣的 4:14 動力學 4:17 所有這一切都在朝著那個方向發展 4:19 我們正在談論的臨界點 4:21 當電動汽車可以撞上 4:24 那 4:25 價格與呃平價 4:28 汽油動力汽車，我們認為這 4:31 可能發生在 2023 年 4:33 但你會在這裡看到的是，我們是 4:35 實際上專注於成本，我們會得到 4:38 一秒鐘後進入那個原因 4:40 這是如此重要的是我們已經 4:42 總成本已經過關 4:45 所有權 4:46 早在 2019 年，我們做了建模 4:49 表明 4:50 喜歡的東西已經便宜了 4:52 就像電動汽車相對於 4:54 豐田凱美瑞，你可以看到 4:56 車隊訂單數量（無論是出租車） 4:59 公司 5:00 超級司機 5:02 正在轉移的警察部門 5:04 到電動汽車 5:05 正因為如此 5:06 總擁有成本 5:08 但是價格平價很重要 5:10 因為這是你要去的地方 5:12 進入汽車經銷商和 5:15 汽車經銷商說你知道你想要 5:16 這輛電動車是 24 000 5:20 或者你想要這個以汽油為動力的嗎？ 5:22 相同，除了它是燃氣動力的 5:23 它是 25 000。 5:25 在那一點上，你知道我們認為 5:28 需求開始上升是顯而易見的 5:30 翻倒 5:31 呃，但是我們關注的原因 5:33 這個圖表中的成本是因為 5:36 技術成本下降非常明顯 5:38 但價格的動態可能是 5:41 有點難以預測，我們 5:43 可以看到一些不同的東西 5:45 地方 5:46 所以今天我們已經看到了 5:49 對電動汽車的需求是 5:50 供過於求，所以你需要 5:53 競爭可能會降低 5:55 這些成本或價格嗯，所以人們 5:59 正在競爭，消費者從 6:00 我們看到的那個元素是 6:02 傳統汽車製造商 6:04 快到的時候已經很落後了 6:06 這種轉變 6:08 還有關於補貼的討論 6:10 所以如果有補貼，你 6:12 有傳統的汽車製造商 6:15 正在盈利地生產汽車 6:17 因為那個補貼，但他們不是 6:19 真正將補貼轉嫁給 6:21 消費者他們只是在提高價格 6:23 他們自己的車輛，這可以 6:25 讓它減少競爭 6:27 而且價格沒有下降 6:29 但成本仍在下降 6:31 誰能夠承受成本下降 6:34 曲線 6:35 可能有額外的正常利潤 6:37 臨時，所以這就是我們關注的原因 6:39 成本，然後我會打電話的最後一件事 6:40 在這裡 6:41 是大多數人認為你知道價格嗎 6:44 奇偶校驗是電池的這個端點 6:47 成本會下降，然後他們會 6:49 與汽油動力汽車保持水平 6:52 這不是發生的事情 6:54 成本下降應該會繼續，所以 6:56 你可以在 2025 年看到 6:58 我們認為這將是 7:00 你知道生產一個便宜 25 到 35 7:03 電動汽車相對於汽油 7:05 動力對應 7:10 所以我們只是在談論你知道的 7:12 車輛價格和成本是其中之一 7:14 消費者進入壁壘和 7:17 另一個是范圍焦慮 7:19 我們在這裡看到的是賴特的 7:21 法律還模擬了電氣方面的改進 7:24 車輛充電率等 7:26 快速為電動汽車充電的能力是 7:28 不僅受到車輛的影響，而且 7:32 那裡的電力電子設備，但由 7:33 充電基礎設施 7:35 呃，你可以看到的是你知道 7:37 自從 7:38 你知道汽車行業的早期 7:40 1915年的工業呃一路走來 7:44 去年 2021 年過得很好 7:46 充電率持續提升 7:49 呃，我們認為這將 7:50 繼續通過 7:52 2026 7:54 你知道有很多錢 7:56 投資於改進這一指標 7:59 因為 8:00 你知道我們確實看到這是掛斷電話 8:01 為消費者 8:03 但你可以想像 2026 年之後 8:06 或者在那個時間範圍內，一旦你達到 8:09 點在哪裡 8:10 你知道充電需要10分鐘 8:12 你的電動車 8:14 會有邊際回報 8:16 將其降至 9 的投資 8:18 分鐘 8:19 或 8 分鐘，我們可以看到 8:22 行業將優化其他 8:23 具有潛在的自動駕駛功能 8:26 也許更安全 8:28 然後你知道其他娛樂 8:30 以及如何讓你忙碌 8:32 自主性 8:37 那麼這個行業是什麼樣的呢 8:40 您剛剛看到的 eb 性能正在提高 8:43 與收費率 8:44 呃，但它正在充電 8:47 指標，但有趣的是 8:49 你知道它沒有改善 8:51 在所有汽車製造商中統一 8:54 我們可以看到呃中位數 8:56 2021年電動汽車的表現 8:59 正在接近特斯拉的表現 9:01 2018. 嗯，這就是你知道的 9:04 我們從哪裡得到特斯拉的存在感 9:06 比其他國家提前三年 9:08 行業 9:10 當您在這裡查看 y 軸時 9:13 你可以看到我們定義的方式 9:15 這個指數是看收費率 9:17 除以車輛成本，這不是 9:20 因為充電率很重要 9:22 儘管你認識人，但它本身就是 9:25 喜歡快速充電的汽車，這是因為 9:27 充電率封裝了 9:29 車輛效率 9:30 車輛的續航里程和 9:32 車輛的動力能力 9:35 所以 9:36 呃有這個繼續 9:38 改進，如果我們向右看 9:40 我們可以看到你知道這些趨勢 9:42 應該繼續呃，我們認為那裡 9:44 將增加大約八倍 9:46 表現 9:48 未來的電動汽車 9:50 五年，這是什麼 9:53 在這個 uh 指數上的表現 9:56 你知道它會回到你知道的 9:58 我們只是描述它的方式 10:00 可能會更快充電 10:02 更便宜的車，呃，對某些人來說，它會 10:05 是呃不可思議的表現 10:08 你知道超快速加速 10:10 呃，你知道我們相信 10:12 自主可以在那個時候形成 10:15 框架 10:19 因此，通過所有這些改進，我們 10:21 看到電動汽車繼續 10:24 從汽油動力汽車中分一杯羹 10:26 2021 年非常了不起 10:29 電動汽車銷量飆升 112 10:32 與去年同期相比，以燃氣為動力的銷售 10:35 估計僅上漲 1.7 10:38 關你知道非常沮喪的水平 10:41 來自covid，所以只是看著這個 10:44 圖表我認為它變得相當清楚 10:47 那 10:49 對車輛的增量需求是 10:51 走向電動 10:53 覺得你知道很有趣 10:55 現在人們都在談論 10:57 這 10:58 半導體芯片短缺與思考 11:01 你知道有這種短缺，但是 11:03 到解決的時候 11:06 需求是否存在對天然氣的真實需求 11:08 動力車輛 11:10 回到人們期待的地方 11:12 或者 11:13 它真的會是電動的嗎 11:15 然後需要這些以氣體為動力的 11:18 車輛 11:19 可能沒有人們預期的那麼強大 11:24 你會注意到的另一件事是 11:26 增長率不是你想要的 11:28 甚至期望從破壞性 11:31 技術 11:32 他們從 2018 年的 69 人增加到 112 人 11:36 2021 年的百分比 11:38 我們看到的是電動 11:40 車輛打破傳統 11:42 s曲線動態所以在這張圖表上 11:44 剩下 11:45 你看到的是傳統的 S 曲線 11:49 你甚至在很早的時候就看到了 11:51 高增長率 11:52 同比下降 11:55 每年都在增長，所以它達到了 140 11:57 138 135 12:00 隨著電動汽車的銷售，他們已經 12:02 從 2013 年的 60 12:06 現在他們是 112 12:08 在 2021 年，原因是 12:11 我們在上面看到了分層的 s 曲線 12:13 彼此作為新的電動汽車 12:16 輸入不同的價格段等 12:18 它即將進入高端市場 12:20 開始採用曲線然後你 12:22 買了便宜的車 12:23 更多中檔 12:25 它開始了採用曲線 12:27 它導致了巨大的 12:29 加速增長 12:31 所以 12:32 總而言之，你知道如果 12:34 傳統汽車製造商可以駕馭 12:36 從汽油車轉向 12:40 對於電動，我們認為電動汽車的銷售可以 12:43 從 480 萬增加八倍 12:46 在未來五年內達到 4000 萬 12:49 這是 53 的複合年增長率 12:52 將是 1.2 萬億美元 12:56 2026 年的收入機會。呃其中之一 12:59 我會留給你的最後一件事 13:02 這是一個有趣的動態 13:03 我們看到 13:05 是鄰里的出現 13:06 電動汽車等等 13:08 設計不適合行駛的車輛 13:10 他們非常的高速公路 13:12 便宜 13:14 而且他們的增長速度非常快 13:16 所以在中國有一輛迷你電動車 13:20 從 5% 的份額 13:22 電池電動汽車市場 13:24 到去年的百分之九 13:27 我們認為這些將繼續 13:28 起飛並可能成為重要組成部分 13:30 在這 4000 萬台中 13:33 所以這就是 13:34 電動車部分我希望你 13:36 享受研究 13:38 一如既往，您可以在推特上聯繫我們 13:40 並在 arc 查看更多研究 13:42 dashingbest.com 13:58 你
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