https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SNEpy69T1_U
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0:05 [Music] 0:07 hi it's dave so we know tesla's q2 is 0:10 going to be challenging but is it going 0:12 to be a quarter of doom and an 0:14 unraveling of tesla or is it just going 0:16 to be a blip in the bigger picture of 0:17 things or could it be something in 0:19 between well today we got a note from 0:21 credit suisse and they detail a meeting 0:23 that they had with tesla investor 0:25 relations and they share some 0:27 interesting details they found out about 0:28 the tesla shanghai factory and its 0:30 impact on q2 earnings all right so 0:32 here's the article says credit suisse 0:34 says tesla stock offers an attractive 0:36 entry point now this article is kind of 0:39 significant in my opinion because it 0:41 says his comments come after he visited 0:43 tesla's fremont facility with investors 0:45 where he held discussions with the ir 0:47 team so in other words this analyst met 0:50 together with tesla investor relations 0:51 they had a discussion and yeah during 0:54 that discussion what was shared and this 0:56 is probably some of the most current 0:58 information we can get from tesla all 0:59 right so they discussed together with 1:01 tesla investor relations how quarter two 1:04 has played out to date in china so this 1:06 is actually going to be crucial to 1:07 understand q2 earnings management has 1:10 said that shanghai saw a full month of 1:12 shutdowns the majority coming in april 1:15 so we know the total amount of shutdowns 1:17 was about a month and since the q1 call 1:20 or earnings call shanghai is operated 1:22 with one shift management also noted in 1:24 order for tesla to produce at two shifts 1:26 with meaningful volume tesla's china's 1:28 suppliers will also need to resume 1:30 production so we have a bottleneck with 1:32 which is not just tesla's factory but 1:35 these factories of other suppliers right 1:37 that tesla relies on and they need those 1:39 suppliers to ramp up production in order 1:41 to really boost a second shift and to 1:43 resume production at a pre-shutdown 1:45 level credit swift says that for q2 1:48 their deliveries are tracking toward 240 1:50 to 250 000 units now this is credit 1:53 swiss's words um we're not sure if tesla 1:56 investor relations you know gave them 1:57 some hints or alluded to you know some 2:00 what the decrease in deliveries would be 2:02 for this quarter but this is their 2:03 assessment also credit suisse 2:05 anticipates near-term specifically in q2 2:07 to reflect some regression in terms of 2:09 margins and total deliveries of course 2:11 deliveries will come down but also 2:12 margins it looks like there will be some 2:14 pressure on that and further credit 2:16 sources dan levy is convinced that the 2:18 long-term opportunity remains intact 2:20 despite recent headwinds from china 2:22 alright so some questions here how much 2:25 will q2 deliveries impact tesla's q2 2:28 earnings second question here is will q2 2:30 lower deliveries impact future quarter 2:32 deliveries and tesla's growth trajectory 2:34 for let's say next year or a couple 2:36 years to come another question is how 2:38 much of q2 challenges are priced into 2:40 the stock right now and also can 2:42 suppliers ramp back quick enough to get 2:44 to pre-shutdown production in this 2:46 quarter all right so let's look at how 2:48 i'm viewing q2 earnings for tesla 2:50 previously several weeks ago i had 2:52 forecasted deliveries to be about 280 2:54 000 for q2 this has been lowered since 2:57 because the shutdown has been worse than 2:59 expected so let's say hypothetically 3:01 it's around 250 000 deliveries of course 3:03 this can change week to week right and 3:05 so in a few weeks in a month or so we'll 3:07 know much more details on this so let's 3:10 say asp is about 4 54 000 or so this 3:13 quarter it'll probably be higher 3:14 slightly because of price increases but 3:16 also majority of the 3:18 other vehicles will be coming from 3:20 fremont which actually i think has 3:21 higher asps so automotive revenues are 3:24 13.5 billion regulatory credits this is 3:26 anyone's guess so let's say 250 3:28 automotive gross profit 3.9 billion and 3:31 automotive gross margin is 28.9 percent 3:33 total revenues of 15.6 billion total 3:36 gross profit about 4 billion a gap gross 3:39 margin 25 billion i'm looking at 3:41 operating expenses just slightly trend 3:42 up at 2.043 billion operating profit 3:45 comes out to about 1.9 billion this is 3:47 down from 2.45 billion in my previous 3:50 projection and then operating margin i'm 3:52 looking at 12.2 percent net income 1.5 3:56 billion gap and net income non-gaap 2.07 3:59 billion so overall these are reduced 4:01 numbers actually from let's say a 4:03 previous estimate but they're not 4:05 terrible because still you know tesla is 4:07 getting profitable gap profitable 4:09 non-gaap numbers sure it's decreased 4:11 from you know previous estimates or 4:13 previous expectations even from other 4:15 investors it's not like tesla is losing 4:16 money this quarter or they have negative 4:18 cash flow by any means tesla's still a 4:19 very profitable company all right 4:21 looking eb dawn cash flow for this 4:23 quarter i'm looking at eb dot about 3 4:25 billion 4:26 let's say capex is around 2 billion 4:28 dollars and then you have operating cash 4:30 flow less capex which is 674 billion and 4:32 then you have cash and cash equivalents 4:34 about 18 billion dollars all right so 4:36 let's zoom out in the two-year view to 4:37 see what this q2 4:39 means for tesla in the bigger picture so 4:42 in q1 we know they had 310 000 4:44 deliveries and this will trend down 4:47 let's say minus 60 000 or it could be 4:49 more who knows we'll find out more 4:51 details probably in a few weeks or so 4:52 and we know that tesla had a gap income 4:55 of 3.3 billion but this will basically 4:58 be halfed right to 1.5 billion or so and 5:00 we know their adjusted eb was like 5 5:02 billion but this will be again almost 5:04 down 2 billion to about 3 billion 5:06 dollars but if you move forward to q3 5:08 and q4 and assuming that tesla can 5:12 maintain fremont production and increase 5:15 shanghai production to even higher 5:16 numbers than 5:17 before the shutdown 5:19 and we have berlin and austin coming 5:21 online for the second half right they're 5:23 ramping um second half of this year and 5:25 so with these numbers if you plug in 5:28 four hundred thousand four hundred sixty 5:29 thousand tests could still meet their 5:30 fifty percent right uh year-over-year 5:33 growth goals but their earnings and 5:35 their profit is going to increase 5:36 substantially so we've got operating uh 5:39 profit going from 4.3 billion to ending 5:41 the year about 5.2 billion dollars and 5:43 then you have what gap income going from 5:45 3.6 to 4.3 and non-gaap from 4.1 to 4.9 5:49 billion dollars so basically tesla's not 5:51 just back to where they were before 5:53 toward the end of the year but they're 5:54 much further because tesla is pushing 5:56 the envelope by ramping four factories 5:58 at the same time looking outward to 2023 6:01 and if we model tesla let's say ramping 6:04 production on these four factories 6:06 increasing production from 520 to 670 6:09 000 vehicles then yeah tesla's next year 6:11 is going to look fantastic we have 6:13 operating income going from 6 billion to 6:14 8.4 billion and non-gaap going from 5.5 6:17 to 7.6 billion dollars eb da looking at 6:21 30 billion dollars for next year of 6:22 course these numbers will likely need to 6:24 be adjusted tesla will give some more 6:26 guidance also each quarter right the 6:28 game changes um demand changes supply 6:30 changes there's a lot of things that 6:32 factor into so these are just kind of 6:33 rough estimates at this point one 6:35 interesting figure though is this 25 6:37 billion dollars or so of net income that 6:40 i'm projecting tesla to have in 2023 now 6:43 if you give like a super low multiple 6:45 let's say off of next year's let's say 6:47 25 billion earnings let's say you give a 6:49 20 multiple which is ridiculous for a 6:51 company that's growing earnings um 6:53 basically at almost 100 right year over 6:55 year and then you have people saying oh 6:57 tesla is going to go down to 100 or 200 7:00 that's basically a 100 or 200 billion 7:02 dollar marquette company but if you 7:04 think about that what is the prv going 7:06 to be off of that it's going to be like 7:07 five or something right if tesla's 100 a 7:09 billion dollar cap coming at some point 7:11 i think more and more people will start 7:12 to realize that tesla is actually a 7:14 massive cash cow and profit generating 7:16 machine and there's a reason why 7:18 investors are giving right decent 7:20 multiples for tesla's valuation because 7:22 yeah they're growing and it's a great 7:24 business model all right so for q2 7:26 production we have some rough estimates 7:27 here so fremont 7:29 likely will produce 135 to 140 000 units 7:32 shanghai maybe 95 to 100 000 we'll see 7:35 berlin maybe six to ten thousand of 7:37 berlin and austin combined and this is 7:39 compared to in q1 fremont produced 127 7:42 000 shanghai one hundred eighty two 7:44 thousand berlin about two hundred if you 7:46 follow troy test like on twitter he'll 7:47 give you more detail and current 7:48 projections all right so let's look at 7:50 the bigger picture here so q2 challenges 7:52 likely won't impact tesla's production 7:54 goals going forward it's likely just 7:56 gonna be a one-off quarter and because 7:58 of that investors will look forward 7:59 right to future quarters second there 8:01 are macro uncertainties going on we have 8:03 the possibility of a recession we have 8:05 the feds you know tightening and 8:07 monetary policy we have interest rates 8:09 the future of inflation we also have a 8:11 lot of drama and uncertainty regarding 8:13 elon's twitter bid i think most of all 8:15 if there is a recession it could impact 8:17 perhaps demand in some ways asps might 8:19 come down but it would also hit other 8:21 oems harder than does tesla because it's 8:23 got a better product and higher demand 8:25 and just more pricing power also longer 8:27 term i think tesla still is on track to 8:29 grow deliveries not just 50 or year over 8:31 year but to do 50 year-over-year over a 8:34 multi-year horizon right that's the 8:35 language that tesla's management uses 8:38 and it's also likely that tesla will 8:39 grow earnings actually faster than that 8:41 50 percent 8:42 um year-over-year delivery goals because 8:45 they have operating leverage which means 8:47 basically as their revenues increase 8:49 they're growing their earnings faster 8:50 right then the revenues grow all right 8:52 so overall in q2 tesla does have its 8:54 challenges we've got some decreased 8:56 revenue from decreased deliveries um 8:58 margins are going to shrink a bit and 9:00 we've got some headwinds right coming 9:02 with the bigger macro concerns however 9:04 if you take a step back and if you look 9:05 at tesla from a multi-year kind of view 9:08 or lens you'll see that tesla is still 9:10 in its early stages of growing rapidly 9:12 tesla stated they're wanting to reach 20 9:14 million vehicles a year in about 10 9:16 years and further they have other kind 9:18 of option caller other interesting 9:19 businesses like fsd robo taxi even their 9:22 optimist 9:23 ai robots which they're going to give a 9:25 sneak preview a tesla ai day this summer 9:28 anyways hope this has been helpful if as 9:29 good like and subscribe all my videos 9:31 can be found as an audio podcast as well 9:33 just search for dave lee on investing in 9:34 your favorite podcast player i'm also on 9:36 twitter at heyday7 alright we'll see you 9:38 guys my next video thanks
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0:05 [音樂] 0:07 嗨，我是戴夫，所以我們知道特斯拉的 q2 是 0:10 將是具有挑戰性的，但它會繼續嗎 0:12 成為厄運的四分之一和一個 0:14 特斯拉的解體還是只是在進行 0:16 成為大局中的曇花一現 0:17 東西，或者它可能是什麼東西 0:19 今天之間，我們收到了一封來自 0:21 瑞士信貸，他們詳細介紹了一次會議 0:23 他們與特斯拉投資者 0:25 關係，他們分享一些 0:27 他們發現的有趣細節 0:28 特斯拉上海工廠及其 0:30 對第二季度收益的影響好吧 0:32 這是瑞士信貸的文章 0:34 說特斯拉股票提供了一個有吸引力的 0:36 切入點現在這篇文章有點 0:39 在我看來很重要，因為它 0:41 說他的評論是在他訪問後發表的 0:43 特斯拉與投資者的弗里蒙特工廠 0:45 他在那裡與 ir 進行了討論 0:47 團隊，換句話說，這位分析師遇到了 0:50 連同特斯拉投資者關係 0:51 他們進行了討論，是的 0:54 那次討論分享了什麼和這個 0:56 可能是一些最新的 0:58 我們可以從特斯拉獲得的所有信息 0:59 對，所以他們一起討論 1:01 特斯拉投資者關係第二季度如何 1:04 迄今為止在中國已經上演了，所以這個 1:06 實際上將是至關重要的 1:07 了解 Q2 盈餘管理有 1:10 說上海整整一個月 1:12 關閉大多數在四月到來 1:15 所以我們知道關閉的總數 1:17 大約一個月，自第一季度電話會議以來 1:20 或收益電話上海運營 1:22 還注意到一班制管理 1:24 特斯拉要求兩班倒生產 1:26 具有有意義的體積特斯拉的中國 1:28 供應商也需要恢復 1:30 生產，所以我們遇到了瓶頸 1:32 這不僅是特斯拉的工廠，而且 1:35 其他供應商的這些工廠對 1:37 特斯拉所依賴的，他們需要那些 1:39 供應商按順序提高產量 1:41 真正推動第二班，並 1:43 在停產前恢復生產 1:45 level credit swift 說第二季度 1:48 他們的交貨量正在跟踪 240 1:50 到 250 000 單位現在這是信用 1:53 swiss 的話 嗯，我們不確定 tesla 1:56 你知道的投資者關係給了他們 1:57 一些提示或暗示你知道一些 2:00 交付量會減少多少 2:02 本季度，但這是他們的 2:03 評估也瑞士信貸 2:05 預計近期特別是在第二季度 2:07 反映一些回歸 2:09 當然，利潤和總交付量 2:11 交貨量會下降，但也 2:12 看起來會有一些邊距 2:14 對此的壓力和進一步的信貸 2:16 消息人士丹利維確信， 2:18 長期機會保持不變 2:20 儘管最近來自中國的不利因素 2:22 好吧，這裡有一些問題，多少錢 2:25 Q2 交付是否會影響特斯拉 Q2 2:28 收益第二個問題是第二季度 2:30 交付量下降影響未來季度 2:32 交付量和特斯拉的增長軌跡 2:34 讓我們說明年或一對夫婦 2:36 未來幾年 另一個問題是如何 2:38 第二季度的大部分挑戰都被計入 2:40 現在的股票也可以 2:42 供應商退縮得足夠快 2:44 在此預停產 2:46 季度好的，讓我們看看如何 2:48 我正在查看特斯拉的第二季度收益 2:50 幾週前我有 2:52 預計交付量約為 280 2:54 000 for q2 這已經降低了 2:57 因為停工比 2:59 預計所以讓我們假設性地說 3:01 當然是大約 250 000 次交付 3:03 這可以每週更改，並且 3:05 所以在一個月左右的幾週內，我們會 3:07 知道更多細節，所以讓我們 3:10 說asp大約是4 54 000左右 3:13 季度可能會更高 3:14 稍微因為價格上漲，但 3:16 也是大多數 3:18 其他車輛將來自 3:20 實際上我認為有的弗里蒙特 3:21 更高的平均銷售價格，因此汽車收入 3:24 這是 135 億監管信貸 3:26 任何人的猜測所以讓我們說250 3:28 汽車毛利39億及 3:31 汽車毛利率為 28.9% 3:33 總收入 156 億總計 3:36 毛利約40億個缺口毛 3:39 保證金250億我正在看 3:41 營業費用只是略有趨勢 3:42 營業利潤達20.43億元 3:45 大約有 19 億，這是 3:47 低於我之前的 24.5 億 3:50 預測，然後是營業利潤率 3:52 看 12.2% 的淨收入 1.5 3:56 十億差距和淨收入 non-gaap 2.07 3:59 億，所以總體上這些都減少了 4:01 數字實際上來自假設 4:03 以前的估計，但他們不是 4:05 可怕，因為你仍然知道特斯拉是 4:07 獲得盈利 差距 盈利 4:09 非公認差距數字肯定減少了 4:11 從你知道以前的估計或 4:13 甚至來自其他人的先前期望 4:15 投資者，特斯拉並沒有在虧損 4:16 本季度的錢或他們有負 4:18 無論如何，現金流量特斯拉仍然是 4:19 非常有利可圖的公司 4:21 為此尋找 eb 黎明現金流 4:23 季度我在看 eb dot 大約 3 4:25 十億 4:26 假設資本支出約為 20 億 4:28 美元，然後你有營運現金 4:30 減少資本支出，即 6740 億美元， 4:32 那麼你有現金和現金等價物 4:34 大約 180 億美元 4:36 讓我們在兩年視圖中縮小到 4:37 看看這個 q2 4:39 對特斯拉來說意味著更大的圖景，所以 4:42 在第一季度，我們知道他們有 310 000 4:44 交貨，這將呈下降趨勢 4:47 假設是負 60 000 或者可能是 4:49 更多誰知道我們會發現更多 4:51 大概幾週後的細節 4:52 我們知道特斯拉有收入缺口 4:55 33億，但這基本上會 4:58 減半到 15 億左右 5:00 我們知道他們調整後的 eb 就像 5 5:02 十億，但這將再次幾乎 5:04 減少 20 億至約 30 億 5:06 美元，但如果你前進到第三季度 5:08 和 q4 並假設特斯拉可以 5:12 維持弗里蒙特產量並增加 5:15 上海產量更高 5:16 數比 5:17 關機前 5:19 我們有柏林和奧斯汀來 5:21 下半場在線，他們是 5:23 今年下半年增加 5:25 所以如果你插入這些數字 5:28 四十萬四百六十 5:29 千次測試仍然可以滿足他們 5:30 百分之五十是對的 5:33 增長目標，但他們的收入和 5:35 他們的利潤會增加 5:36 基本上所以我們已經開始運作了 5:39 利潤從43億到年底 5:41 一年大約52億美元和 5:43 那麼你有什麼差距收入來自 5:45 3.6 到 4.3 和非差距從 4.1 到 4.9 5:49 十億美元，所以基本上特斯拉不是 5:51 剛剛回到他們以前的地方 5:53 到今年年底，但他們 5:54 更進一步，因為特斯拉正在推動 5:56 通過傾斜四個工廠的信封 5:58 同時展望 2023 6:01 如果我們為特斯拉建模讓我們說斜坡 6:04 這四個工廠的生產 6:06 將產量從 520 增加到 670 6:09 000 輛，然後是特斯拉的明年 6:11 看起來很棒，我們有 6:13 營業收入從60億到 6:14 84 億和非公認差距從 5.5 6:17 到 76 億美元 eb da 看 6:21 明年300億美元 6:22 當然這些數字可能需要 6:24 調整特斯拉會多一些 6:26 指導也每季度對 6:28 遊戲改變嗯需求改變供應 6:30 變化有很多東西 6:32 因素，所以這些只是一種 6:33 在這一點上粗略估計一 6:35 有趣的數字是這個 25 6:37 億美元左右的淨收入 6:40 我現在預計特斯拉將在 2023 年擁有 6:43 如果你給出一個超低倍數 6:45 讓我們說明年 6:47 250億的收入假設你給了一個 6:49 20倍數，這對一個人來說是荒謬的 6:51 收入增長的公司 6:53 基本上在將近 100 年以上 6:55 年然後你有人說哦 6:57 特斯拉將下降到 100 或 200 7:00 這基本上是 100 或 2000 億 7:02 美元馬奎特公司，但如果你 7:04 想想prv是怎麼回事 7:06 擺脫它就像 7:07 如果特斯拉是 100 a，那麼五或正確 7:09 十億美元上限即將到來 7:11 我想會有越來越多的人開始 7:12 意識到特斯拉實際上是一個 7:14 巨大的搖錢樹和創造利潤 7:16 機器，這是有原因的 7:18 投資者給予正確的體面 7:20 特斯拉估值的倍數，因為 7:22 是的，他們正在成長，這很棒 7:24 商業模式很好，所以對於第二季度 7:26 生產我們有一些粗略的估計 7:27 在這裡如此弗里蒙特 7:29 可能會生產 135 到 140 000 台 7:32 上海 可能 95 到 100 000 我們拭目以待 7:35 柏林大概六到一萬 7:37 柏林和奧斯汀合併，這是 7:39 與第一季度相比，弗里蒙特生產了 127 7:42 000上海一百八十二 7:44 千柏林大約兩百，如果你 7:46 像在推特上一樣關注特洛伊測試，他會 7:47 給你更多的細節和最新的 7:48 預測好吧，讓我們看看 7:50 這裡的大局，所以第二季度的挑戰 7:52 可能不會影響特斯拉的生產 7:54 未來的目標很可能只是 7:56 將是一次性季度，因為 7:58 投資者將期待 7:59 那裡的第二個季度的權利 8:01 我們有宏觀不確定性嗎 8:03 我們有經濟衰退的可能性 8:05 你知道的美聯儲收緊和 8:07 貨幣政策 我們有利率 8:09 未來的通脹我們也有 8:11 很多戲劇性和不確定性 8:13 伊隆的推特出價我認為最重要的是 8:15 如果出現經濟衰退，它可能會影響 8:17 也許在某些方面需求 asps 可能 8:19 下來，但它也會擊中其他 8:21 OEM比特斯拉更難，因為它 8:23 獲得了更好的產品和更高的需求 8:25 只是更多的定價權也更長 8:27 任期我認為特斯拉仍然在軌道上 8:29 增加交付量，而不僅僅是 50 年或一年以上 8:31 年，但要超過 50 年 8:34 多年的視野是這樣的 8:35 特斯拉管理層使用的語言 8:38 特斯拉也有可能 8:39 收入增長實際上比這更快 8:41 50% 8:42 嗯，同比交付目標，因為 8:45 他們有經營槓桿，這意味著 8:47 基本上隨著他們的收入增加 8:49 他們的收入增長更快 8:50 那麼收入增長就好了 8:52 所以總體而言，第二季度特斯拉確實有它的 8:54 我們的挑戰有所減少 8:56 減少交貨帶來的收入 8:58 利潤會縮小一點 9:00 我們遇到了一些逆風 9:02 然而，更大的宏觀問題 9:04 如果你退後一步，如果你看 9:05 從多年的角度看特斯拉 9:08 或者鏡頭你會看到特斯拉還在 9:10 處於快速增長的早期階段 9:12 特斯拉表示他們希望達到 20 9:14 每年大約 10 萬輛汽車 9:16 多年以後，他們還有其他種類 9:18 選項調用者的其他有趣的 9:19 像 fsd robo 出租車這樣的企業，甚至他們的 9:22 樂天派 9:23 人工智能機器人，他們將給出一個 9:25 偷偷預覽今年夏天的特斯拉人工智能日 9:28 無論如何，希望這對您有所幫助 9:29 喜歡並訂閱我所有的視頻 9:31 也可以作為音頻播客找到 9:33 只需搜索 dave lee 進行投資 9:34 你最喜歡的播客播放器我也在 9:36 推特在全盛期 7 好的，我們再見 9:38 伙計們，我的下一個視頻謝謝
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