https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Y6Hhb6TkEU
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0:48 uh greetings everyone uh normally i do this youtube video on uh employment 0:54 fridays uh but today uh we're doing it midstream because the markets have been so 1:01 difficult and the economic data is so confusing uh the market data so 1:06 confusing so uh i guess i should have introduced myself uh kathy wood chief investment 1:12 officer of arc invest so today uh we have a very special 1:18 special guest her name is nancy lazar she is the chief global economist for 1:25 piper sandler i've known nancy since 1982 we've both been in the business for a 1:32 long time and we've seen a lot of cycles and experienced a lot of markets 1:38 the reason i wanted to feature nancy today is uh because of what i've been describing 1:45 for the last few months on this youtube channel as you know 1:51 everyone looks at the same data we all get the same data the government puts it out 1:57 but different economists place a different emphasis on certain variables at certain points 2:04 in the cycle and so we were watching uh two points of 2:10 view based on the same data one was uh we are back in the 70s environment 2:18 inflation is baked into the cake it's going to be very difficult 2:24 uh to dislodge it uh and uh we're we're probably in an environment 2:31 where commodity prices real estate uh tangible assets generally are going 2:38 to do much better uh than the the financial markets 2:43 and um so we were dealing with that scenario and as you know 2:49 we were looking at data and actually more than a year ago anticipated a very different world 2:57 what we didn't anticipate of course was the extent and the length of time that we were 3:04 going to see supply chain disruptions and we certainly did not expect russia's invasion of ukraine 3:12 so those have been variables you know we've had to work through in terms of our own thinking about the 3:19 future uh but we we did come to the same conclusion uh that we're probably going 3:26 to see more deflationary forces at the end of all of this 3:31 than inflationary forces and i believe that we are in the early 3:37 stages of seeing that now these are the early stages but 3:42 nancy's view of the world which she every week 3:49 puts into charts that really help evoke what's going on 3:55 her view of the world was closer to this you know inflation 4:00 is not embedded in the system at a at a rate much like the 70s 4:05 well hi kathy thank you very much uh for asking me to be on this discussion with you today really really appreciate it 4:12 and there's certainly a lot of very very interesting things going on and some disturbing things quite frankly that are going on and so there are many drivers 4:19 of economic activity but perhaps the two most important are both monetary and physical let's start out with the 4:25 monetary side of the equation which is uh page two and on the monetary side the 4:30 federal reserve is now raising interest rates but actually that's in a background of other central banks have 4:36 been raising rates already for over a year uh we've counted over 180 central bank tightening moves that 4:43 is 180 interest rate increases over the past year not 180 central banks there are many 4:49 central banks have actually raised rates uh several several times which is now what our federal reserve is just starting to 4:56 do but we are a global economy and it is global rates that drive our economy and 5:02 it's not the level of rates here you see global short rates are still very very low many of you would think 1.8 percent 5:07 uh gee that's much lower than mortgage rates what's wrong with that but they've increased it's the change in interest rates when you go from 0.8 to 1.8 it's 5:16 that increase that changes behavior that impact negatively impacts economic activity and it doesn't happen 5:22 immediately it takes time it takes roughly a year to change behavior and so we are right now in a period where the 5:29 economy is already starting to slow you've certainly seen that with a lot of company news where their earnings are 5:34 starting to get hit and overall economic activity is starting to slow um and now the fed is starting to raise 5:42 rates that's very different when they last had a tightening cycle which was back in 2016. 5:48 they were raising rates into an accelerating economy and that gave them a couple of years of higher interest 5:55 rates without really disrupting the markets or economic momentum that's not the case today the economy is 6:02 already slowing why is it already slowing again because global central banks have been tightening for a year 6:07 you also have higher bond yields you have higher oil prices all those things lead growth and they are now in the 6:14 prospect of slowing economic activity and now the fed is stepping in and 6:20 raising rates we would argue they're late uh and these these higher interest rates that they're putting in place risk 6:26 creating financial strains um and in turn we don't think the fed is going to 6:31 be able to raise rates as much as they currently suggest say around 200 basis points because between now and then there's 6:38 going to be clear signs that the economy is slowing and even inflationary pressures are going to are going to 6:44 come down so we will get another rate hike most likely in february and probably even in august we're not so 6:50 sure how aggressive the fed's going to be able to be in the in in the fourth quarter because we think by then it's going to be pretty clear both growth and 6:57 inflation are slowing pretty uh are slowing pretty uh significantly yeah uh nancy i am i'm also struck 7:06 the fed is really focused on the u.s but uh i think europe is in a recession 7:12 china some of the numbers coming out of china are shocking as well that has an impact on the rest of asia 7:18 so they're what they're facing is a recession and their currencies are dropping their 7:26 currencies are dropping relative to the dollar which means their purchasing power is going 7:32 down but it also means that some of them are tightening more because their currencies 7:39 are falling against the dollar so it's a bit of a vicious cycle and uh 7:44 as nancy says i agree with you nancy we are not alone many people are thinking about the u.s in isolation uh we've 7:52 already had one quarter of negative gdp which most people brushed aside saying 7:57 oh that's uh that that's a fluke and uh you know i don't think i think that was a real 8:04 number and we should not dismiss it so uh agree with you totally uh nancy 8:10 and and i would agree with you that europe isn't already in a recession uh to be sure and don't forget the strength 8:15 in the dollar to the extent their currencies are weaker the strength in the dollar is is actually uh another 8:21 disinflationary event here for the united uh for the united states so that just further increases the odds that we 8:27 can see inflation slow uh pretty pretty quickly yeah along with mine i was just going to see in the old days 8:34 you know in past cycles many people thought that the dollar going up was a was 8:42 the same as you know monetary tightening it's a disinflationary force 8:48 uh and it's up 15 uh since the bottom which is a huge increase for the dollar in such a short 8:55 period of time and really hurts emerging markets 9:01 absolutely the the the dollar going up means that our imports from abroad are going to be cheaper and just makes it 9:07 easier and at the same time the dollar going up further hurts corporate corporate profits and we're going to get to that uh we're going to get to that in 9:13 a in a minute but the other major policy driver of the u.s economy um is 9:19 classically fiscal policy and if we go to the next slide fiscal policy was 9:24 really aggressive as many of you know uh either for small businesses or even big businesses but 9:31 also obviously individuals and so government spending exploded particularly in 2001 but started in 2000 9:38 so we had two years of very very aggressive physical stimulus that went in directly into consumers hands um and 9:45 indeed they were able to spel spend it very very we would be able to spend it 9:50 very very very very quickly but this is very different uh kathy you mentioned the 60s and 70s this is very different 9:56 than the 60s and 70s you had sustained increases in government spending starting with guns and butter in the 10:02 back half of the 60s and then unfortunately richard nixon just basically took over the fed uh and 10:08 accelerated both government spending and uh and money supply net for about 15 years starting the back 10:15 half of the 60s throughout the 70s you had aggressive very aggressive very rapid money uh money supply growth uh 10:22 and government spending on a sustained basis and i'm using that word on purpose because that is not what we had in 2021 10:29 it was basically a whip saw i i don't want to get into whether or not it was good or bad i would argue 10:36 that it was too much in march of 2021 the economy was already starting to heal 10:42 but nonetheless it is what it is um and i agree with your point kathy that this gave the consumer firepower to buy 10:49 a lot of stuff um and then you had the port disruptions both here and in china 10:54 shutting down of the ports and that uh indeed uh created a shortage of goods 11:00 and so the consumers had a lot of money they were buying a lot of stuff but it wasn't all available from bike prices uh 11:07 to to clothing uh prices obviously used car prices rose very sharply because we 11:12 had the money to actually spend well go ahead i was just going to say the 11:18 dotted line here gives our viewer viewers a sense of how restrictive 11:27 spending is now right exactly that's what the dollar line is measuring at first it measured the surge 11:34 measured the stimulus and you could see the the orange line uh that helped to drive overall economic activity up very 11:41 very very strongly but absolutely to kathy's point either the dotted line is now declining dramatically government 11:47 spending is actually negative uh 20 this year and from a fiscal uh perspective 11:53 from an economic headwind perspective that in and of itself takes about three percentage points off of gdp this year 12:01 and so i would actually say this is at risk of creating a recession potentially 12:06 even more than the fed because this is happening right now many people are struggling because those stimulus checks 12:13 are gone um and many people are struggling because obviously inflation has uh surged and that's cut into real 12:19 purchasing power and a big reason is how quickly this government spending has gone from being very stimulated to be 12:25 very restrictive and a lot of that excess savings has been eaten up by by inflation um and we're now a lot of 12:31 people are struggling as a result of this fiscal this massive physical drag so the fed is tightening into a period 12:38 uh of when fiscal policy is also even more of a headwind than currently the the fed uh the fed the fed is 12:45 yeah and it it strikes me that uh 12:50 that those who are listening will say oh my gosh this is this is terrible and and 12:55 it is in one way but one of the things we're focused on is 13:01 what will get the fed to stop tightening or at least change its rhetoric 13:08 and i think as these these forces put pressure on the economy 13:15 and you get companies like walmart and target reporting 13:21 uh terrible numbers from two points of view and i know nancy is going to go into 13:26 some of this but uh their sales up three percent year over year well 13:32 inflation itself is up uh if you look at cpi 8 13:38 now they're not passing all of that through but i am sure that they are passing more 13:45 than 3 percent through so that means their unit sales their real sales are declining on 13:52 a year-over-year basis uh while inventories are ballooning and we think 13:57 that those two factors and now the fed must be aware of them because walmart 14:03 such a big and targets such big companies uh those two factors probably 14:08 have gotten the fed thinking uh my goodness are we are we are we are we over doing it here 14:15 well to your point exactly let's go to the next slide and you can actually visually see this is not a unique 14:20 situation for walmart or target it is a very broad-based situation where these 14:27 you have a surge in inventories as demand for a lot of the stuff we bought because we were staying at home is 14:33 starting to uh actually fade so inventories uh usually do grow companies 14:38 do keep stuff uh in the back and the back rooms but they're 10 higher than they were uh 14:44 before the pre before before the coveted crisis and so ten percent these are not small numbers these are huge numbers and 14:51 again to uh kathy's point these are the number of widgets in the back room they are a number of of leggings they are not 14:59 uh dollar values this is adjusted for adjusted for inflation so it's the 15:04 amount of stuff it's up 10 they've got uh too much stuff the bottom 15:10 chart looks at sales and again this is a broad-based problem unit sales have 15:15 basically been unchanged for a year they are still seven percent higher so 15:20 companies still feel good about their sales but the point is the economy is now reopening and our incomes are 15:26 getting squeezed because of inflation we are getting ready to travel have been traveling so we don't need all that 15:31 stuff and so we are expecting sales actually to move down uh towards uh the 15:37 trend line that it was at the same time inventories are very high now what does that mean that means the demand is now 15:43 greater than pardon me demand is now weaker than supply just the opposite 15:48 just the opposite of a year ago a year ago demand was greater than supply and that put upward pressure on price today 15:55 demand is much weaker than supply and so in our world we like to look at well 16:00 what are inventories relative to sales and you can see after being well below trend again 16:07 companies didn't have enough stuff now they have too much and these trends are going to last it 16:13 could take time for sales to continue to weaken uh companies potentially double ordered we actually have data suggesting 16:20 we're importing an awful lot of stuff right now uh 40 surge in consumer good imports that's 16:26 going to end up being in inventories and so what will companies do what how do companies deal when they have too many 16:33 inventories well walmart just said it they're rolling back prices so kathy i don't know how 16:40 long it's going to take the fed to realize that we think they're looking at specifically core cpi 16:45 um and they need a string of numbers where core inflation on a 16:50 month-to-month basis is something uh closer to 0.2 by core i mean x food and energy which is what the federal reserve 16:56 tends to look at uh and they want that to move down toward two percent on a sustained basis we think they're going 17:03 to get there because companies are already here in may starting to cut prices we've already seen used car 17:09 prices come down they became too expensive um and so we think as we go through the summer we're going to start 17:15 to see these .2s maybe not april uh pardon me maybe not may uh but as we get 17:21 into june july we think we're gonna start to see another shift down in inflation because 17:27 companies have to get rid of all this stuff and they're gonna start to cut price well one of the things that would be interesting to know is 17:34 uh have we ever seen inventories target or or walmart have their 17:40 inventories ever increased this much uh so targets inventories their unit 17:46 sales were probably down uh 3.3 percent uh was the dollar value 17:51 but in units probably down uh and their inventories were up 42 so take away 17:57 inflation that's 30 to 35 percent on a year-over-year basis 18:02 uh i do not believe we've ever seen that before and these are well-managed companies and so what i think happened 18:09 was human beings overruled their uh uh and their enter enterprise resource 18:15 planning systems their software and and they did double order and triple order 18:20 uh i know that target said part of the disappointment uh in sales and earnings 18:26 was they had to start marking down goods in order to start clearing shelves and 18:32 even with marking down in april these are through april uh their inventories were up 42 percent walmarts were up 33 18:40 percent home depots up 32 percent uh so much for supply chain problems i mean 18:47 those those at least in the case of those three companies uh the supply chain issues are disappearing and and 18:54 one last point on used cars in particular uh you know i think a lot of people bought 19:00 that extra car because they didn't want to take mass transit and they saw prices go up so they 19:06 actually made some money on those early purchases i wouldn't be surprised if they now now that mass transit is open 19:13 much more they start selling into the used car market where used car sales 19:19 are already down 20 percent i wouldn't be surprised to see an implosion in those prices 19:25 yeah no that is clearly a bubble and bubbles classically do pop and i would totally agree with you after going up 19:32 fifty percent why they don't go down uh double uh double double digit but to your point it's been a long time since 19:38 companies have had to deal with inventories when you and i first started out in the business inventories were always a part of a discussion and you 19:44 would always have inventory swings either helping boost and then eventually hurting economic growth but that really 19:49 stopped and the last one we've had uh was y2k and that was 30 years ago and i'm not 19:55 sure how many managers remember uh that all of a sudden they can't end up with too many inventories so uh this is a 20:02 unique situation for many of them um but nonetheless the consequences are they they want a clear shelf and they're 20:08 going to cut and they are already starting to cut uh uh cut cut price um so what does this do though to 20:15 corporate profits as you're suggesting and that's that's the next page when you have revenue growth slowing unit sales 20:20 stalling uh yet costs up dramatically because they they hired a lot of people 20:26 and they also raised wages what you're really setting yourself up for is a 20:32 pretty significant decline in corporate profits and i i don't think this is yet recognized that profits in the first 20:38 quarter actually uh did decline again i don't understand that we just heard uh several very big prominent companies 20:45 suggest their profits were weak in the first quarter it's not actually down sequentially i believe even amazon was 20:50 down sequentially um but uh at the end of the day that is what happens uh company profits 20:57 are cyclical they are tied to uh the overall economic activity obviously um 21:03 when economic activity booms we have some great companies in this country their profits can classically do very 21:08 very well very very focused on productivity um but again the this is a little bit of a unique event uh there 21:15 were people who were reluctant to work and so because of the covet situation um and therefore companies had to scramble 21:22 and raise wages more than they otherwise would have while revenues were growing double 21:27 digits supported by all of the stimulus checks that was fine um but now again at 21:32 this inflection point where growth is slowing because of uh very clearly because of the physical stimulus again you don't 21:39 have those checks that you had a year ago you your stimulus checks directly boosted 21:44 corporate profits because you went to stores and you and you spent it uh so today as a result of that and higher 21:51 prices you're cutting back that is affecting that is affecting the profit backdrop and at the same time again 21:56 companies have too many inventories and so now if anything they're going to start to cut price so we are setting the 22:02 stage for uh multiple quarters we would we we believe of a decline actually in 22:08 corporate uh in corporate profits so uh if anything 2022 is almost just the opposite of 2021 in many many ways um uh 22:17 and and again these are at the leading edge i'm not sure again maybe after the past two weeks 22:23 this is increasingly being recognized but up until the past two weeks uh this really wasn't being recognized that we are going to see a decline in corporate 22:30 profits and that's going to have uh unfortunate uh economic consequences also again it's been very easy to get 22:36 jobs uh in 2021 we think that's going to change here in 2022 we are actually already seeing signs 22:43 where companies are putting in place hiring freezes many of these big retailers are putting in place hiring 22:48 freezes and that's stage one stage two is that if this profit decline continues you actually could see an increase 22:56 in the unemployment rate a sharp slowdown if not outright decline in the number of people hired i know 23:02 that is a very very very out of consensus call but it all starts with profits and if companies can't make money they do cut costs um and that 23:09 includes and that unfortunately includes uh wages and i would say i i don't think 23:15 this is such an egregious uh point and even though it's not talked about much because top top chart here left-hand 23:21 chart um is um uh business confidence and it did 23:27 actually drop uh in the back half of 2021 and dropped sharply in the first quarter of 2021 so i find it a little 23:33 peculiar that there weren't more companies say warning about uh their earnings estimates because certainly in the first 23:40 quarter many many businesses uh uh did see something wrong and that's why business confidence declined uh as 23:46 much as as much as it has now the data that i'm using um is broad economy corporate profits not just for 23:53 the stock market um stock market earnings at least through the fourth quarter we're still up but uh based on 23:59 information that we have we think actually even in the first quarter s p earnings were probably also down sequentially not year over year at 24:07 turning points you have to look at what's happening month after month quarter after quarter and uh we do think 24:12 first quarter earnings will probably down for the stock market and will probably continue to decline here in 24:17 2021 yeah i'll just add a few things the uh corporate profits after tax adjusted for 24:24 iba and cca that is a very good measure of 24:29 underlying profitability and nancy i think backed into what uh the first 24:35 quarter number was she's usually very close and if it looks like it's just hooked 24:40 over a little bit uh now this is seasonally adjusted so uh but if you do the quarter to quarter at 24:48 an annual weight rate percent change that drop was 25 24:55 from the fourth quarter to the first quarter and i am sure that has been a 25:01 giant head fake for corporations and that's why uh confidence has dropped so 25:06 much uh the other thing i'll say is you know during during tough times innovation 25:13 gains traction and so in the retail sector which we've focused on in terms of uh in terms of 25:19 the inventory excesses we are also beginning to wonder if um if the there's an accelerated 25:27 shift now taking place to online now that energy prices have soared 25:33 and because if you look at total online sales as a percent of retail sales 25:40 uh that number in the united states is 14 15 in china it's more like 45 25:47 normally when you get a trend a consumer trend moving to 25:53 through that 15 mark toward 20. it's a trend that's moving into 25:58 overdrive so those brick and mor bricks and mortar retailers who enjoyed such a nice rally 26:06 last year as people were going back to stores and so forth they are probably now facing a day of 26:13 reckoning these energy prices are preventing trips to stores and so we would not be surprised to see 26:20 a lot of carnage in the retail sector again we always say innovation solves problems uh and in this case uh 26:29 consumers ordering uh ordering uh goods from home is probably taking uh taking 26:36 place at an accelerated rate and this will also affect eventually manufacturing activity too right because 26:42 someone made all this stuff um and so this will spread into into other unfortunately into into other other 26:49 sectors but it really is this backdrop uh where if you go to the next page 26:54 again if you notice that that is tightening into uh a slowing economy because global central banks have been 27:00 tightening fed is tightening while you have some very very significant physical drag government spending is declining in 27:07 this country while the fed is raising uh raising rates you have companies have too many inventories and so 27:13 very different than the 19 than the 1960s and 70s um and we do think uh that 27:20 inflation will also very quickly slow given everything that we've just looked at headline may stay more elevated as of 27:27 april the headline cpi and i apologize for the noise there's somebody upstairs doing construction um the uh the april 27:34 cpi was still up about eight uh eight point three percent on a year-over-year basis uh month over month headline was 27:40 actually pretty tame uh only 0.2 the fed strips out food and energy they think 27:46 that those are sometimes can be exogenous shocks and and that does appear to be what's going on with food 27:52 and energy prices both in part related to what's going on unfortunately in russia and the ukraine uh it is uh poor 27:59 uh though also similarly accelerated very sharply reflecting the demand for all the goods and in april it was 28:05 actually a bad number month on month it was up 0.6 year over year it was at 6 2. what the fed is looking at is what those 28:11 readings do sequentially and so that 0.6 definitely open the door for the federal 28:17 reserve to do 50 basis points and to tighten again probably another 50 uh as we go into uh the summer uh that 0.6 28:25 month on month is a very very high number they are looking for that number to move down towards 0.2 percent and 28:31 given the backdrop that we've just highlighted we think that does start to unfold in the summer 28:36 near term hotels airfares unfortunately may continue to go up i i don't know if you all have noticed they're egregious 28:43 but again this is a very different backdrop than 2021 uh the travel and leisure industry 28:48 doesn't have uh that consumer with a with with a stimulus check with a lot of 28:53 savings with wages going up aggressively and employment very very strong income growth for the consumer nominal income 29:00 growth for the consumer this year is down to four percent last year it was double digit 10 to 17 29:07 um that gave consumers fire power to for temporarily anyway to 29:12 pay higher prices they don't have that today so we're actually worried that the consumer i call it you got a new smarter 29:18 consumer um that you may take a vacation because you haven't had one in in a couple of years but 29:24 as far as really splurging on vacations they're pretty much making it possible because prices have gone up so much as 29:30 your income has gotten hit significantly that along with uh the excess supply we 29:36 have today um and in all of all the goods we do think there will be a sharp slowdown inflation back down uh below 29:43 two percent as we move through the end of uh as we move through the end of the year 29:49 like the 70s sorry yes yes and i this is the biggest controversy in the 29:55 marketplace right now uh so in the former camp that i described uh earlier uh they have 30:03 inflation really quite sticky up here uh and of course the the second scenario 30:09 that nancy is describing here has a quick unwind in the inflation and 30:16 my confidence in this scenario has increased tremendously 30:22 after seeing those inventory numbers at in at 30:27 target walmart and home depot i mean those are very large 30:33 organizations national and they have a very big problem bigger than i have ever 30:39 seen the reason a lot of people think uh core cpi will be sticky is uh rents 30:46 because housing prices have gone up so much rents have gone up so much i think 30:51 what's going to go what's going on on the good side is going to overwhelm 30:56 what's going on on the rent side and uh we're even seeing signs in some places 31:02 that the consumer just can't pay up for these rents anymore you're seeing a lot more mobility and i have a feeling even 31:09 rents are going to start uh adjusting oh we i agree with you uh kathy that you 31:17 are already seeing some weakness in housing activity how sales are down housing starts are now flat to down 31:24 housing gets hit first when you see a backup in interest rates um shelter uh service prices have already been 31:30 accelerating we think they go up maybe just a little bit more and then actually slow as we go into 2023 so we think the 31:38 inflation outlook for 2023 in part because then you start to see some service lower service inflation could 31:43 will be even lower than it is uh in 2020 and 2020 uh 20.2 so this is one of the charts uh if this 31:52 plays out the way that you forecast it here nancy and i i i think it will 31:58 um this is why the fed will will relent first they'll relent in 32:05 terms of their rhetoric you'll hear them talk well maybe we don't have to go up as much but my guess is they will stop 32:12 their tightening moves at some point this year all together and 32:18 the market is the stock market is uh discounts the future the stock market is is looking very 32:25 carefully at these numbers to discern trends out there and as soon as the stock market understands that inflation 32:32 is going to unravel and that the fed is actually going to 32:38 relent uh because they are making a mistake here and i really do believe they are 32:43 now making a mistake tightening into the teeth of what seems to be a very significant slowdown and inventory 32:51 um bulge in the economy i think that the equity market is going 32:57 to take off again but what we'll see first is a a rotation and you know on 33:04 certain days we're seeing it but the the last year has been all about cyclicals 33:09 and value stocks there will be a rotation back to growth stocks because 33:15 if nancy's right if we're right growth is going to become very scarce 33:21 out there and so that true growth companies with strong revenue growth in the 33:28 20 plus range to the extent uh there are companies like that out there they will 33:34 be rewarded handsomely as the market shifts away from value back to growth 33:40 and and it can happen very quickly because algorithms are also trained to to uh to 33:47 behave this way last year it was straight up and to the right for cyclicals and value 33:52 and the momentum carried them probably too far given what's happening with inventories and the same can happen 33:59 in the other other direction and is there's a chance the bond market has actually also figured this out the 34:06 fed is going to go too far and you see that on the on the next page you have had an increase in bond yields around 34:12 the world um but the bond bond market has bond yields have actually ticked down a little bit i think the 10-year 34:20 was at 315 320 at one point and now you're back below three um and so we do 34:25 think uh bom the bond market may be figuring this out we'll we'll see um but 34:31 uh and and we would have the ten yield actually moving back down towards two percent uh by the end of uh by the end 34:36 of this uh by the end of this year yeah and i uh everyone's been watching the 10-year treasury uh bond yield like like 34:44 hawks and those in the first camp were sure that it was going to break the 34:50 tr downtrend that's been in place uh really if you go you you have to go back to 1981 to see the beginning of the 34:57 downtrend uh the the treasury bond yield peaked at around 15 percent back then 35:04 and it's been the trend has been down uh i think those expecting a breakout 35:11 are are being disappointed as we speak and i'm surprised that the stock market isn't picking up more on this uh because 35:19 uh interest rates uh the long-term treasury uh yield this one went to 320 and now 35:26 has backed down to 280 so that that's 40 basis points in uh 35:33 maybe two weeks uh which is a very rapid move so the bond market and remember 35:38 this is a 10-year treasury yield and i always like to think of it in terms of okay this is what the bond market thinks 35:46 nominal gdp will be doing for the next 10 years 35:51 give or take so three percent or 2.8 percent nominal gdp 35:57 growth over the next 10 years um well that must mean uh one of two 36:03 things either growth is disappointing or inflation's disappointing or both or if 36:09 you're in our world in the disruptive innovation world we think unit growth measured correctly 36:16 is going to surprise hugely on the high side of expectations and that 36:22 inflation is going to is going to turn down and we would not be surprised over time to see it go 36:30 negative once more because disruptive innovation is becoming a much bigger 36:36 base in the economy electric vehicles when we first started uh arc weren't 36:42 even they they were probably not even 20 000 vehicles that was 2014. uh last year we 36:50 were up at 4.8 million units this year we think we could be close to seven and 36:56 a half million units globally as the consumer preference shift accelerates towards 37:01 electric and so you know that's approaching 10 percent of all auto sales 37:07 and if battery costs continue to come down the way we expect then electric 37:12 vehicle prices will resume their decline once the supply chain 37:36 wow uh so i'm i'm totally on board we have what we call is the manufacturing 37:42 renaissance which uh the digitization scene the robotics theme where uh one thing the covid crisis did do to be sure 37:49 uh pulled it definitely companies realize the importance of automation digitization 37:55 making their businesses more productive um and at the same time we have an onshoring into this country which is 38:01 creating a lot of good jobs in the middle part of this country and uh so capital spending we think uh secularly 38:08 will be strong cyclically it's also going to slow we think here in 2022 2023 but but uh companies uh definitely are 38:15 embracing uh autonomous automation uh robotics etc digitization use utilization of 38:22 computers etcetera to run your business to run your businesses so longer term we have a uh pretty optimistic uh but uh 38:29 unfortunately we we need to squeeze out inflation we we think it is better to have a low inflation i think your 38:34 deflation outlook uh kathy good gosh isn't that great if prices go down what's wrong with what's 38:40 wrong with low inflation if the economy is healthy um and i would agree with that outlook yeah and we know that the 38:46 dollar is up 15 that's a powerful anti-inflationary force uh we mentioned 38:52 the 10-year uh bond yield uh saying uh fed you might be making a mistake here 39:00 and we're we're beginning to see that in other fixed income metrics like the 39:05 yield curve the yield curve has flattened from 150 basis points 39:11 more than a year ago down to roughly 20 basis points it went negative for a minute 39:19 but this what this also means is the the bond investors believe that 39:26 inflation or growth is going to be disappointing uh and so so that's interesting um typically when the yield 39:33 curve uh goes negative there is a recession within the 12 to 18 months and 39:40 that's certainly post-world war ii experience if we're right 39:45 we're going to revert to something like the early 1900s experience where if if 39:50 these deflationary forces start dominating that we could have inverted 39:55 yield curves more often than not in the 50 years ended in 19 i think uh 25 uh 40:04 the yield curve was inverted 60 of the time and the 40:09 average inversion was a hundred basis points that certainly will be a new world and i think the other variable 40:16 we're seeing here credit default swaps um those are breaking out these are 40:22 insurance policies that investors take out against bankruptcy and even j.p morgan i took a 40:29 look at that now banks are very well capitalized uh we're trying to figure out why this is 40:35 happening but jp morgan's credit default swaps uh are priced today 40:41 above where they were in the fourth quarter of 2018 when the market absolutely fell apart 40:48 and are moving towards covid highs now why 40:53 is that happening uh i think there are a lot of deflationary forces out there and 40:58 if there are deflationary forces and a company has leveraged up to buy back 41:04 shares and cater to short-term oriented shareholders then uh they are going to 41:10 have to service that debt uh by cutting prices on products that are probably going obsolete or that are uh 41:18 are over inventoried right now uh so i think we're going to hear a lot more about deflation and i think you should 41:25 be very watch very carefully the leverage uh in your companies uh and uh 41:32 whether or not their products are in an over inventory 41:38 situation or whether they're going uh to be obsolete uh because of innovation and 41:44 i'll just give one more example we got another report this week cisco systems uh technology bellwether 41:52 not so much a technology bellwether but a gdp bellwether that's at least how it describes itself it its revenues trade 42:00 much like nominal gdp does globally and uh expectations for this 42:06 last quarter were up five and a half percent in revenues they were flat their revenues were flat and they cut their 42:13 estimate for the next quarter from five and a half percent to anywhere from 42:19 minus one and a half percent to minus five and a half percent now what is that 42:24 is this a gdp harbinger it might be we do think gdp is 42:29 going to slow down quite a bit but in our view here's disruptive innovation at work 42:34 once again we are going through the first rip and replace cycle capital spending cycle in the enterprise 42:43 communications space since the early 90s when cisco was 42:48 building out the backbone for the internet now cisco is being disrupted 42:56 so it is very much hardware-centric and on-prem in its focus 43:02 uh enterprise communications like all technology is moving into the cloud and 43:07 i often say it's going to feel chaotic because even our economic statistics are 43:14 not set up for what's about to happen they were born out of the industrial age 43:19 and they're having trouble measuring the digital age they're missing a lot and it takes them five to ten years to catch up 43:27 to to reality and in the meantime they have all of the tax uh 43:33 tax information on income and profits generally out there so what we think is 43:38 happening is uh they they are uh the the gdp statistics uh uh 43:46 as they are reported today are showing higher inflation than is really the case 43:52 and lower output growth than is the case uh and uh 43:57 and so again confusing to the fed confusing to everyone but not confusing to us because we're focused solely on 44:05 disruptive innovation and you know i i i will end here before thanking nancy i 44:11 will i will end here on this notion that innovation is going to solve a lot of 44:17 our problems and we have a lot more problems since covid given the supply 44:22 chain issues russia's invasion of ukraine uh zero covid tolerance now 44:28 again in china so uh we have a lot more problems to solve 44:33 and uh i think uh nancy's idea of this reassuring the the manufacturing 44:40 renaissance here in the united states is going to be a boon for our country it's 44:46 going to hurt other countries but a boon for our country i think that's one of the reasons the dollar is going up 44:52 and uh i think that our productivity gains are going to be enormous because 44:59 you know we lost a lot of the industrial world to other countries now we can rebuild it here with state-of-the-art 45:05 technology and that's very exciting from a productivity point of view so nancy uh i want to thank you once 45:13 again you've brought to life many of through these charts many of uh the topics that i discuss without charts uh 45:21 i know that your your business is dedicated to 45:26 helping figure out where the truth is and i think you've done a magnificent job in the last year sorting out the 45:34 signal from the noise now we can't declare victory yet 45:39 because inflation hasn't come crashing down but i think we both believe it's going to be a big surprise and that it will be 45:48 extremely positive for the equity markets and for the fixed income markets 45:54 thank you very much kathy all right thanks 46:16 you
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0:48 呃問候大家呃通常我在呃就業上做這個youtube視頻 0:54 星期五呃，但今天呃，我們在中游做，因為市場一直如此 1:01 困難和經濟數據如此混亂呃市場數據如此 1:06 令人困惑，所以我想我應該自我介紹一下，呃，kathy wood 首席投資 1:12 arcinvest的官員所以今天呃我們有一個非常特別的 1:18 特邀嘉賓 她的名字是南希·拉扎爾 她是全球首席經濟學家 1:25 派珀·桑德勒 我從 1982 年就認識南希了 1:32 很長一段時間，我們已經看到了很多周期，經歷了很多市場 1:38 我今天想介紹南希的原因是因為我一直在描述 1:45 如您所知，最近幾個月在這個 youtube 頻道上 1:51 每個人都查看相同的數據 我們都獲得了政府發布的相同數據 1:57 但是不同的經濟學家在某些點上對某些變量的重視程度不同 2:04 在循環中，所以我們在看呃兩點 2:10 基於相同數據的視圖 一個是呃我們回到了 70 年代的環境 2:18 通貨膨脹已成蛋糕，這將是非常困難的 2:24 呃，把它趕走
2:31 大宗商品價格房地產呃有形資產一般去向 2:38 比金融市場做得更好 2:43 嗯，所以我們正在處理這種情況，如你所知 2:49 我們正在查看數據，實際上一年多前就預測到一個非常不同的世界 2:57 當然，我們沒有預料到的是我們的程度和時間長度 3:04 將會看到供應鏈中斷，我們當然沒想到俄羅斯會入侵烏克蘭 3:12 所以這些都是變量，你知道我們必鬚根據我們自己的想法來解決 3:19 未來，呃，但我們確實得出了同樣的結論，呃，我們可能會去 3:26 在這一切結束時看到更多的通縮力量 3:31 比通貨膨脹的力量，我相信我們處於早期 3:37 看到現在這些是早期階段的階段，但是 3:42 南希每週的世界觀 3:49 放入真正有助於喚起正在發生的事情的圖表中 3:55 她的世界觀更接近這個你知道通貨膨脹 4:00 不像 70 年代那樣嵌入到系統中 4:05 好吧，你好，凱西，非常感謝你邀請我今天和你討論這個問題，真的非常感謝
4:12 並且肯定有很多非常非常有趣的事情正在發生，坦率地說，一些令人不安的事情正在發生，所以有很多司機 4:19 經濟活動，但也許最重要的兩個是貨幣和實物讓我們從 4:25 等式的貨幣方面，呃第二頁，在貨幣方面 4:30 美聯儲現在正在提高利率，但實際上這是在其他中央銀行的背景下 4:36 已經加息一年多了，我們統計了超過 180 次央行的緊縮舉措 4:43 是過去一年加息 180 次 不是 180 次央行有很多 4:49 中央銀行實際上已經加息了好幾次，現在我們的美聯儲剛剛開始加息 4:56 做，但我們是一個全球經濟體，是全球利率推動我們的經濟和 5:02 這不是你看到的利率水平，全球短期利率仍然非常非常低，你們中的許多人會認為 1.8% 5:07 呃，天哪，這比抵押貸款利率低得多，這有什麼問題，但他們已經增加了這是利率從 0.8 到 1.8 時的變化 5:16 增加會改變對經濟活動產生負面影響的行為並且它不會發生 5:22 立即改變行為需要時間大約需要一年的時間，因此我們現在正處於一個
5:29 經濟已經開始放緩，你肯定已經看到很多公司新聞，他們的收入在哪裡 5:34 開始受到打擊，整體經濟活動開始放緩，現在美聯儲開始加息 5:42 當他們上一次出現緊縮週期是在 2016 年時，利率是非常不同的。 5:48 他們在加速經濟中加息，這給了他們幾年更高的利息 5:55 在沒有真正擾亂市場或經濟勢頭的情況下提高利率，而今天的經濟情況並非如此 6:02 已經放慢了 為什麼又放慢了 因為全球央行已經收緊了一年 6:07 你也有更高的債券收益率 你有更高的油價 所有這些都導致增長，它們現在處於 6:14 經濟活動放緩的前景，現在美聯儲正在介入 6:20 加息，我們會說他們遲到了，呃，這些他們正在實施的高利率風險 6:26 嗯，造成財務壓力，反過來我們認為美聯儲不會 6:31 能夠像他們目前建議的那樣加息大約 200 個基點，因為從現在到那時 6:38 將有明顯跡象表明經濟正在放緩，甚至通脹壓力也將 6:44 降下來，所以我們很可能會在 2 月再次加息，甚至可能在 8 月我們也不會這樣 6:50 確定美聯儲在第四季度能夠採取多積極的態度，因為我們認為到那時增長和增長都將非常清楚 6:57 通貨膨脹正在放緩 相當呃正在放緩相當呃明顯是的呃南希我也很震驚 7:06 美聯儲真的專注於美國，但我認為歐洲正處於衰退之中 7:12 中國 一些來自中國的數字也令人震驚，這對亞洲其他地區產生了影響 7:18 所以他們面臨的是經濟衰退，他們的貨幣正在貶值 7:26 貨幣相對於美元正在下跌，這意味著它們的購買力正在下降 7:32 下降，但這也意味著他們中的一些人正在進一步收緊，因為他們的貨幣 7:39 兌美元正在下跌，所以這是一個惡性循環，呃 7:44 正如南希所說，我同意你的看法，南希，我們並不孤單，很多人都在孤立地思考我們，嗯，我們已經 7:52 已經有四分之一的負國內生產總值，大多數人都置之不理，說 7:57 哦，那是僥倖，你知道我不認為我認為那是真的 8:04 號碼，我們不應該忽略它，所以嗯，完全同意你的看法，嗯，南希 8:10 而且我同意你的觀點，歐洲還沒有陷入衰退，嗯，可以肯定，不要忘記實力 8:15 在美元的程度上，他們的貨幣更弱，美元的強勢實際上是另一個 8:21 美國的通貨緊縮事件，呃，美國，這樣只會進一步增加我們 8:27 可以看到通脹放緩，嗯，很快，是的 8:34 你知道在過去的周期中，許多人認為美元上漲是 8:42 正如你所知道的那樣，貨幣緊縮是一種通貨緊縮的力量 8:48 呃，它從底部開始上漲了 15 呃，這對美元來說是一個巨大的漲幅。 8:55 一段時間，確實傷害了新興市場 9:01 絕對是美元升值意味著我們從國外進口的東西會更便宜 9:07 更容易，同時美元升值進一步損害企業利潤，我們會達到那個，呃，我們會達到那個 9:13 一分鐘後，美國經濟的另一個主要政策驅動力是 9:19 典型的財政政策，如果我們看下一張幻燈片，財政政策是 9:24 你們中的許多人都知道，無論是對小企業還是對大企業，都非常具有侵略性，但是 9:31 顯然，個人和政府支出在 2001 年特別是在 2000 年開始爆炸式增長 9:38 所以我們有兩年非常非常積極的身體刺激直接進入消費者手中 9:45 的確，他們能夠拼寫非常非常非常非常我們將能夠花費它 9:50 非常非常非常快，但這是非常不同的，呃，凱西，你提到了 60 年代和 70 年代，這是非常不同的 9:56 與 60 年代和 70 年代相比，政府支出持續增加，從槍支和黃油開始 10:02 60 年代後半期，然後不幸的是，理查德尼克松基本上接管了美聯儲 10:08 從後面開始，政府支出和貨幣供應網加速了大約 15 年 10:15 60 年代的一半 整個 70 年代 你有侵略性 非常有侵略性 非常快速的貨幣 uh 貨幣供應量增長 uh 10:22 以及持續的政府支出，我故意使用這個詞，因為這不是我們在 2021 年所擁有的 10:29 它基本上是一把鞭鋸，我不想討論它是好是壞，我會爭辯 10:36 2021 年 3 月太多了，經濟已經開始復蘇 10:42 但儘管如此，嗯，我同意你的觀點，凱西，這給了消費者購買的火力 10:49 很多東西，然後你在這里和中國都有港口中斷 10:54 關閉港口，呃確實呃造成了貨物短缺 11:00 所以消費者有很多錢，他們買了很多東西，但並不是所有的都可以從自行車價格中獲得 11:07 到衣服呃價格明明二手車價格漲得很厲害因為我們 11:12 有錢花得好去吧，我只是想說 11:18 這裡的虛線讓我們的觀眾觀眾感受到了多麼嚴格 11:27 現在的支出是正確的，這正是美元線最初衡量的指標，它衡量的是激增 11:34 測量刺激，你可以看到幫助推動整體經濟活動上升的橙色線 11:41 非常非常強烈但絕對對凱西的觀點而言，虛線現在正在急劇下降 政府 11:47 今年的支出實際上是負的呃20，從財政的角度來看，呃 11:53 從經濟逆風的角度來看，這本身就使今年的國內生產總值減少了大約三個百分點 12:01 所以我實際上會說這有可能造成經濟衰退 12:06 甚至比美聯儲還要多，因為現在正在發生這種情況，許多人都在苦苦掙扎，因為那些刺激檢查 12:13 消失了，很多人都在苦苦掙扎，因為顯然通貨膨脹已經飆升，而且已經削減到真實的 12:19 購買力和一個很大的原因是政府支出從非常刺激到 12:25 非常嚴格，很多多餘的儲蓄已經被通貨膨脹吞噬了，我們現在有很多 12:31 由於本財政這一巨大的物理阻力，人們正在苦苦掙扎，因此美聯儲正在收緊一段時間 12:38 呃當財政政策也比現在的美聯儲 呃 美聯儲是 12:45 是的，這讓我很震驚 12:50 那些正在聽的人會說哦，我的天哪，這太可怕了，而且 12:55 這是一種方式，但我們關注的一件事是 13:01 什麼會讓美聯儲停止收緊政策或至少改變其言論 13:08 我認為這些力量給經濟帶來了壓力 13:15 你會得到像沃爾瑪這樣的公司和目標報告 13:21 呃可怕的數字從兩個角度來看，我知道南希會進入 13:26 其中一些，但是他們的銷售額同比增長了 3% 13:32 如果你看一下CPI 8，通貨膨脹本身就在上升 13:38 現在他們並沒有通過所有這些，但我相信他們會通過更多 13:45 超過 3%，這意味著他們的單位銷售額他們的實際銷售額正在下降 13:52 與去年同期相比，嗯，而庫存在膨脹，我們認為 13:57 這兩個因素，現在美聯儲必須意識到它們，因為沃爾瑪 14:03 這麼大，針對這麼大的公司，呃這兩個因素大概 14:08 讓美聯儲在想，我的天哪，我們是我們是我們是我們在這裡做完了 14:15 說得對，讓我們轉到下一張幻燈片，您實際上可以直觀地看到這不是獨一無二的 14:20 沃爾瑪或目標公司的情況 這是一個非常廣泛的情況，其中這些 14:27 你的庫存激增，因為對我們因為呆在家里而購買的很多東西的需求是 14:33 開始呃實際上消退所以庫存呃通常會成長公司 14:38 把東西放在後面和後面的房間裡，但它們比原來高 10 倍 14:44 在令人垂涎的危機之前的之前，所以百分之十這些不是小數字，這些是巨大的數字， 14:51 再說一遍，凱西的意思是這些是後面房間裡的小部件的數量，它們是一些緊身褲，它們不是 14:59 呃美元價值，這是根據通貨膨脹調整的，所以它是 15:04 東西的數量增加了 10 他們有太多的東西在底部 15:10 圖表著眼於銷售額，這又是一個基礎廣泛的問題，單位銷售額 15:15 基本上一年沒有變化，它們仍然高出 7%，所以 15:20 公司仍然對他們的銷售感覺良好，但關鍵是經濟現在正在重新開放，我們的收入 15:26 由於通貨膨脹而受到擠壓我們正準備旅行一直在旅行所以我們不需要所有這些 15:31 東西，所以我們預計銷售額實際上會下降 15:37 趨勢線同時庫存現在非常高這意味著什麼意味著現在需求 15:43 比原諒我 需求現在弱於供應正好相反 15:48 與一年前正好相反，一年前需求大於供應，這給今天的價格帶來了上行壓力 15:55 需求遠弱於供應，因此在我們的世界中，我們希望好好看待 16:00 相對於銷售的庫存是多少，您可以在再次遠低於趨勢後看到 16:07 公司沒有足夠的東西，現在他們有太多了，這些趨勢將持續下去 16:13 銷售額可能需要一段時間才能繼續減弱 呃 公司可能會雙倍訂購 我們實際上有數據表明 16:20 我們現在正在進口大量的東西 呃 40 消費品進口激增 16:26 最終會進入庫存，所以公司會做什麼 當他們有太多的時候公司會怎麼處理 16:33 庫存很好，沃爾瑪剛剛說他們正在降低價格，所以凱西我不知道怎麼做 16:40 美聯儲需要很長時間才能意識到我們認為他們正在關注核心 cpi 16:45 嗯，他們需要一串數字，其中核心通脹率 16:50 每月的基礎是接近 0.2 的核心，我的意思是 x 食品和能源，這是美聯儲的 16:56 傾向於看著呃，他們希望這個數字持續下降到 2%，我們認為他們會這樣做 17:03 到達那裡，因為公司已經在這裡了 可能會開始降價 我們已經看到二手車 17:09 價格下降了，它們變得太貴了，嗯，所以我們認為隨著夏天的到來，我們將開始 17:15 看到這些 .2s 可能不是 april 呃對不起我也許不是 17:21 到 6 月，我們認為我們將開始看到通脹再次下降，因為 17:27 公司必須擺脫所有這些東西，他們將開始很好地降價其中一件有趣的事情是 17:34 呃，我們有沒有見過庫存目標或沃爾瑪有他們的 17:40 庫存增加了這麼多，所以目標庫存他們的單位 17:46 銷售額可能下降了 呃 3.3% 呃是美元價值 17:51 但是單位可能會下降，呃，他們的庫存增加了 42 所以帶走 17:57 通貨膨脹率同比增長 30% 至 35% 18:02 呃，我不相信我們以前見過這種情況，這些都是管理良好的公司，所以我認為發生了什麼 18:09 人類是否推翻了他們的呃呃和他們進入企業資源 18:15 計劃系統他們的軟件，他們做了雙重訂單和三重訂單 18:20 呃我知道那個目標說部分失望呃銷售和收益 18:26 他們是否必須開始標記商品才能開始清理貨架？ 18:32 即使在 4 月降價，這些都是到 4 月，呃，他們的庫存增加了 42% 沃爾瑪增加了 33 18:40 家得寶百分比上漲了 32% 呃，供應鏈問題太多了 18:47 至少在這三家公司的情況下，供應鏈問題正在消失，並且 18:54 最後一點是關於二手車的，你知道我想很多人都買了 19:00 那輛額外的車，因為他們不想乘坐公共交通工具，而且他們看到價格上漲，所以他們 19:06 實際上在這些早期購買中賺了一些錢，如果他們現在公共交通開放，我不會感到驚訝 19:13 他們開始向二手車市場銷售更多的二手車 19:19 已經下跌了 20% 看到這些價格內爆我不會感到驚訝 19:25 是的，不，這顯然是一個泡沫，而且泡沫通常會流行起來，我會在上升後完全同意你的看法 19:32 百分之五十為什麼他們不下降呃雙呃雙雙位數但對你來說已經很久了 19:38 當你和我剛開始從事商業活動時，公司不得不處理庫存問題，庫存總是討論的一部分，而你 19:44 總是會出現庫存波動，要么有助於提振經濟增長，要么最終損害經濟增長，但這確實 19:49 停了下來，我們最後一次是 y2k，那是 30 年前，我不是 19:55 肯定有多少經理記得呃突然間他們不能有太多庫存所以呃這是一個 20:02 對他們中的許多人來說是一個獨特的情況，但是結果是他們想要一個乾淨的架子，他們是 20:08 打算減價，他們已經開始減價了 20:15 企業利潤正如您所建議的那樣，當您的收入增長放緩單位銷售時，那就是下一頁 20:20 停滯不前，但成本卻大幅上升，因為他們僱用了很多人 20:26 他們還提高了工資 你真正為自己準備的是 20:32 公司利潤相當顯著下降，我認為這還沒有被承認，利潤在第一 20:38 季度實際上呃確實再次下降我不明白我們剛剛聽到呃幾個非常大的知名公司 20:45 表明他們的利潤在第一季度很弱實際上並沒有連續下降我相信即使是亞馬遜 20:50 依次下降，嗯，但在一天結束時，這就是發生的事情，嗯，公司利潤 20:57 是周期性的，它們顯然與呃整體經濟活動有關 21:03 當經濟活動繁榮時，我們在這個國家有一些偉大的公司，他們的利潤通常可以做得很好 21:08 非常好非常非常專注於生產力但是這又是一個獨特的事件呃那裡 21:15 是那些不願意工作的人，所以因為貪得無厭的情況，所以公司不得不爭先恐後 21:22 並且在收入翻倍的情況下提高工資 21:27 所有刺激檢查都支持的數字很好，但現在又在 21:32 這個增長放緩的拐點，因為呃，很明顯，又是因為物理刺激，你不會 21:39 有一年前的那些支票 你的刺激支票直接增加了 21:44 公司利潤，因為你去商店，你和你花掉了，所以今天因為那個甚至更高 21:51 您正在削減的價格正在影響利潤背景，同時又一次 21:56 公司庫存太多，所以現在如果有什麼他們將開始降價，所以我們正在設定 22:02 呃多個季度的階段，我們相信實際上會下降 22:08 企業 呃企業利潤所以呃如果有的話 2022 年在很多方面幾乎與 2021 年相反 22:17 而且這些都處於領先地位我不確定也許在過去兩週之後 22:23 越來越多的人認識到這一點，但直到過去兩週，呃，這真的沒有被認識到，我們將看到企業數量下降 22:30 利潤，這將產生呃不幸呃經濟後果也很容易得到 22:36 工作 呃 2021 年我們認為這將在 2022 年發生變化 我們實際上已經看到了跡象 22:43 公司正在實施招聘凍結的地方 許多大型零售商正在實施招聘 22:48 凍結，這是第一階段，第二階段是如果這種利潤繼續下降，你實際上可以看到增長 22:56 在失業率方面，如果不是徹底下降的話，我知道就業人數會急劇下降 23:02 這是一個非常非常非常出乎共識的呼籲，但這一切都始於利潤，如果公司不能賺錢，他們會削減成本，嗯 23:09 包括，不幸的是包括呃工資，我會說我不認為 23:15 這是一個令人震驚的呃點，儘管它沒有被談論太多，因為這裡的頂部圖表是左手 23:21 圖表嗯是嗯嗯商業信心，它做到了 23:27 實際上在 2021 年下半年下降，在 2021 年第一季度急劇下降，所以我覺得有點 23:33 奇怪的是，沒有更多的公司對他們的盈利預測發出警告，因為肯定在第一 23:40 季度許多許多企業呃呃確實看到了一些問題，這就是為什麼商業信心下降的原因 23:46 和現在一樣多，我使用的數據是廣泛的經濟企業利潤，而不僅僅是為了 23:53 股市 嗯，至少到第四季度的股市收益我們仍然在上漲，但呃基於 23:59 我們認為實際上即使在第一季度 SP 收益也可能環比下降，而不是同比下降 24:07 轉折點，您必須逐月逐季查看正在發生的事情，嗯，我們確實認為 24:12 股市的第一季度收益可能會下降，並且可能會繼續下降 24:17 2021 年，是的，我將添加一些東西，呃企業稅後利潤調整為 24:24 iba 和 cca 是一個很好的衡量標準 24:29 我認為潛在的盈利能力和南希支持呃第一個 24:35 季度數字是她通常非常接近，如果看起來它只是上癮了 24:40 一點點，嗯，現在這是季節性調整的，所以嗯，但是如果你每季度都在 24:48 下降的年重量百分比變化為 25 24:55 從第四季度到第一季度，我相信這是一個 25:01 公司的大頭假貨，這就是為什麼信心如此下降的原因 25:06 呃我要說的另一件事是你知道在艱難時期創新 25:13 在我們關注的零售領域獲得牽引力 25:19 庫存過剩我們也開始懷疑是否存在加速 25:27 由於能源價格飆升，現在正在轉向在線 25:33 因為如果您將在線總銷售額視為零售額的百分比 25:40 呃，美國的數字是 14，中國的數字是 15，它更像是 45 25:47 通常，當您獲得趨勢時，消費者趨勢會轉向 25:53 從 15 點到 20 點。這是一個正在進入的趨勢 25:58 超速駕駛，所以那些享受如此精彩集會的實體零售商 26:06 去年，當人們回到商店等時，他們現在可能面臨著一天 26:13 估計這些能源價格正在阻止人們去商店，所以我們不會感到驚訝 26:20 零售業又發生了很多大屠殺 我們總是說創新解決了問題 呃 在這種情況下呃 26:29 消費者從家裡訂購呃訂購呃商品可能是服用呃服用 26:36 以加速的速度放置，這也將最終影響製造業活動，因為 26:42 有人做了所有這些東西，嗯，所以這將傳播到其他不幸地傳播到其他其他 26:49 部門，但確實是這個背景，呃，如果你去下一頁 26:54 再次，如果你注意到這正在導致經濟放緩，因為全球央行一直在 27:00 緊縮 美聯儲正在收緊，而你有一些非常非常顯著的物理阻力 政府支出正在下降 27:07 這個國家在美聯儲加息的時候，呃加息，你有公司有太多的庫存等等 27:13 與 19 年代和 1960 年代和 70 年代非常不同，我們確實認為 27:20 鑑於我們剛剛看到的標題可能會保持較高水平，通脹也將很快放緩 27:27 4 月標題 cpi，我為噪音道歉 樓上有人在施工 嗯 呃 4 月 27:34 消費者物價指數仍同比上漲約 8 呃 8 點 3% 呃環比標題是 27:40 實際上很溫順 呃 只有 0.2 美聯儲剝奪了他們認為的食物和能量 27:46 這些有時可能是外源性衝擊，而這似乎確實是食物的情況 27:52 和能源價格都與不幸的俄羅斯和烏克蘭的情況有關 27:59 呃，雖然也同樣加速了，反映了對所有商品的需求，在四月份是 28:05 實際上是一個糟糕的月環比數字，它比去年同期增長了 0.6 倍，為 6 2。美聯儲正在關注的是那些 28:11 讀數按順序進行，因此 0.6 絕對為聯邦打開了大門 28:17 儲備做 50 個基點，然後可能再收緊 50 個 uh，因為我們進入 uh 夏天 uh 那個 0.6 28:25 月環比是一個非常高的數字，他們希望這個數字下降到 0.2%，並且 28:31 鑑於我們剛剛強調的背景，我們認為這確實會在夏天開始展開 28:36 不幸的是，近期酒店的機票價格可能會繼續上漲我不知道你們是否都注意到它們令人震驚 28:43 但這又是一個與 2021 年非常不同的背景，呃旅遊和休閒行業 28:48 沒有呃那個消費者有一個有很多的刺激檢查 28:53 儲蓄，工資大幅上漲，就業非常強勁 消費者名義收入的收入增長非常強勁 29:00 今年消費者的增長率下降到 4% 去年是兩位數 10 到 17 29:07 嗯，無論如何，暫時給了消費者火力 29:12 支付更高的價格，他們今天沒有，所以我們實際上擔心消費者我稱之為你有一個新的更聰明 29:18 消費者，嗯，你可能會去度假，因為你已經有幾年沒有度假了，但是 29:24 至於真正在假期揮霍他們幾乎使之成為可能，因為價格上漲瞭如此之多 29:30 你的收入受到了很大的打擊，加上我們供應過剩 29:36 今天，嗯，在所有我們認為的所有商品中，通脹都會急劇放緩，回落到呃以下 29:43 2% 到年底 呃 到年底 29:49 就像 70 年代對不起是的，我這是最大的爭議 29:55 市場現在呃所以在我之前描述的前陣營呃他們有 30:03 通貨膨脹在這裡真的很棘手，當然還有第二種情況 30:09 南希在這裡描述的通貨膨脹迅速緩解，並且 30:16 我對這種情況的信心大大增加 30:22 在看到這些庫存數字後 30:27 目標沃爾瑪和家得寶我的意思是那些非常大 30:33 國家組織，他們有一個比我以往任何時候都大的問題 30:39 看到很多人認為uh core cpi會粘的原因是uh rents 30:46 因為房價漲了這麼多租金漲了這麼多我想 30:51 將要發生的事情 好的一面將不堪重負 30:56 租金方面發生了什麼，我們甚至在某些地方看到了跡象 31:02 消費者再也無法支付這些租金了，您看到更多的流動性，我什至有感覺 31:09 租金要開始調整哦，我同意你的看法，凱西，你 31:17 已經看到房地產活動出現一些疲軟 銷售如何下降 房屋開工率現在持平到下降 31:24 當您看到利率回升時，住房首先受到打擊 嗯住房 嗯 服務價格已經 31:30 加速，我們認為它們可能會上升一點點，然後隨著我們進入 2023 年實際上會放緩，所以我們認為 31:38 2023 年的通脹前景部分是因為那時您開始看到一些服務較低的服務通脹可能 31:43 甚至會低於 2020 年的 uh 和 2020 uh 20.2 所以這是圖表之一 31:52 發揮你在這裡預測的方式，南希和三認為它會 31:58 嗯，這就是為什麼美聯儲會先讓步，他們會先讓步 32:05 就他們的言辭而言，你會聽到他們說得很好也許我們不必漲太多，但我猜他們會停止 32:12 他們在今年某個時候的緊縮舉措一起 32:18 市場就是股票市場是呃折扣未來股票市場看起來很 32:25 仔細觀察這些數字以辨別那裡的趨勢，一旦股市了解通貨膨脹 32:32 將會解開，而美聯儲實際上會 32:38 放鬆，因為他們在這裡犯了一個錯誤，我真的相信他們是 32:43 現在犯了一個錯誤，緊縮似乎是一個非常顯著的放緩和庫存 32:51 嗯，經濟膨脹，我認為股市正在上漲 32:57 再次起飛，但我們首先會看到的是一個輪換，你知道 33:04 某些日子我們會看到它，但去年都是關於週期性的 33:09 和價值股將輪流回歸成長股，因為 33:15 如果南希是對的，如果我們是對的，增長將變得非常稀缺 33:21 在那裡，真正的成長型公司在收入增長強勁 33:28 20 多個範圍，如果有這樣的公司，他們會 33:34 隨著市場從價值轉向增長，獲得豐厚的回報 33:40 而且它可以很快發生，因為算法也被訓練成 33:47 去年的表現是這樣的，它在周期性和價值方面直線上升並且向右 33:52 考慮到庫存的情況，這種勢頭可能使他們走得太遠了，同樣的事情也可能發生 33:59 在另一個方向上，債券市場是否有可能實際上也發現了這一點 34:06 美聯儲會走得太遠，你會看到在下一頁你的債券收益率增加了大約 34:12 世界 嗯，但是債券市場有債券收益率實際上已經下降了一點，我認為 10 年 34:20 曾經是 315 320，現在你又回到了 3 um 以下，所以我們這樣做了 34:25 認為呃，債券市場可能正在解決這個問題，我們會看到的，但是 34:31 呃，我們會讓十個收益率實際上回落到 2% 呃到年底 34:36 這個呃到今年年底是的，我每個人都在關注 10 年期國債收益率，就像這樣 34:44 鷹派和第一陣營的人確信它會打破 34:50 tr 下降趨勢已經存在 34:57 下降趨勢 那個時候國債收益率最高在15%左右 35:04 而且趨勢一直在下降，嗯，我認為那些期待突破的人 35:11 當我們說話時，我感到很失望，我很驚訝股市沒有在這方面出現更多上漲，因為 35:19 呃利率呃長期國庫呃收益率這個到了320現在 35:26 已經回落到 280 所以那是 40 個基點 35:33 也許兩週，嗯，這是一個非常迅速的舉動，所以債券市場並記住 35:38 這是 10 年期國債收益率，我總是喜歡這樣想，好吧，這就是債券市場的想法 35:46 未來 10 年的名義 GDP 35:51 給予或索取名義 GDP 的 3% 或 2.8% 35:57 未來 10 年的增長 36:03 事情要么增長令人失望，要么通脹令人失望，要么兩者兼而有之，或者如果 36:09 你在我們的世界 在我們認為正確衡量單位增長的顛覆性創新世界中 36:16 會在期望值偏高的情況下大吃一驚，而且 36:22 通貨膨脹將會下降，隨著時間的推移，我們不會感到驚訝。 36:30 再次消極，因為顛覆性創新正在變得更大 36:36 當我們剛開始時，經濟型電動汽車的基礎 呃 arc 不是 36:42 即使是他們，他們可能甚至不到 2014 年的 20 000 輛汽車。呃去年我們 36:50 今年增加了 480 萬台，我們認為我們可能接近 7 台， 36:56 隨著消費者偏好的加速轉向全球 50 萬台 37:01 電動的，所以你知道這接近所有汽車銷量的 10% 37:07 如果電池成本繼續按照我們預期的方式下降，那麼電動 37:12 供應鏈一旦恢復，車價將恢復跌勢 37:36 哇哦，所以我完全同意我們有我們所說的製造 37:42 文藝復興時期，呃數字化場景機器人主題，呃，covid危機確實做的一件事是肯定的 37:49 嗯，絕對是公司意識到自動化數字化的重要性 37:55 使他們的業務更有生產力，同時我們在這個國家進行了外包 38:01 在這個國家的中部地區創造了很多好工作，所以我們認為資本支出是世俗的 38:08 週期性強勁它也會放緩我們認為在 2022 年 2023 年，但是呃公司呃肯定是 38:15 擁抱 uh 自主自動化 uh 機器人等 數字化 使用 38:22 電腦等等來經營你的生意來經營你的生意，所以從長遠來看，我們有一個非常樂觀的呃但是呃 38:29 不幸的是，我們需要擠出通貨膨脹，我們認為最好是低通貨膨脹，我認為你的 38:34 通貨緊縮前景 呃，凱西，天哪，如果價格下跌，那不是很好 38:40 如果經濟健康的話，低通脹是錯誤的，嗯，我同意這種前景，是的，我們知道 38:46 美元上漲 15 是強大的抗通脹力量 呃我們提到過 38:52 10年期呃債券收益率呃說呃餵你可能在這裡犯了一個錯誤 39:00 我們開始在其他固定收益指標中看到這一點，例如 39:05 收益率曲線 收益率曲線從 150 個基點變平 39:11 一年多前下降到大約 20 個基點，一分鐘為負 39:19 但這也意味著債券投資者認為 39:26 通貨膨脹或增長將令人失望，嗯，所以這很有趣，通常當收益率 39:33 曲線 uh 變為負值 12 到 18 個月內出現衰退，並且 39:40 如果我們是對的，那肯定是二戰後的經歷 39:45 我們將回到 1900 年代早期的體驗，如果如果 39:50 這些通貨緊縮的力量開始佔據主導地位，我們本可以倒轉 39:55 收益率曲線通常在 19 年結束的 50 年中，我認為 uh 25 uh 40:04 收益率曲線倒掛 60 次， 40:09 平均反轉是一百個基點，這肯定會是一個新世界，我認為另一個變量 40:16 我們在這裡看到信用違約掉期，嗯，這些正在爆發，這些是 40:22 投資者為破產而採取的保險單，甚至摩根大通我也採取了 40:29 看看現在銀行資本充足 呃 我們正試圖弄清楚為什麼會這樣 40:35 正在發生，但摩根大通的信用違約掉期呃今天定價 40:41 高於 2018 年第四季度市場絕對崩盤時的水平 40:48 現在正朝著covid高點邁進 為什麼 40:53 是這樣嗎 呃我認為那裡有很多通貨緊縮的力量 40:58 如果存在通貨緊縮的力量並且公司已經槓桿化回購 41:04 股份和迎合短期導向的股東然後呃他們要去 41:10 必須通過降低可能過時或呃產品的價格來償還債務 41:18 現在庫存過多，所以我想我們會聽到更多關於通貨緊縮的消息，我認為你應該 41:25 非常仔細地觀察你公司的影響力呃呃呃 41:32 他們的產品是否庫存過剩 41:38 或者他們是否會因為創新而被淘汰 41:44 我再舉一個例子 本週我們收到了另一份報告 cisco systems uh technology bellwether 41:52 與其說是技術領頭羊，不如說是 gdp 的領頭羊，至少它是這樣描述自己的 42:00 就像名義gdp在全球範圍內所做的那樣，呃對此的期望 42:06 上個季度的收入增長了 5% 半 他們持平 他們的收入持平 他們削減了 42:13 估計下一季度從百分之五到百分之五到任何地方 42:19 負百分之五到負百分之五現在那是什麼 42:24 這是gdp的預兆嗎？我們可能確實認為gdp是 42:29 會放緩很多，但在我們看來，顛覆性創新正在發揮作用 42:34 我們再次經歷了企業中的第一個 rip and replace 週期資本支出週期 42:43 自 90 年代初思科成立以來的通信空間 42:48 為互聯網構建主幹 現在思科正在被打亂 42:56 所以它非常以硬件為中心，並且專注於內部部署 43:02 像所有技術一樣，企業通信正在遷移到雲中，並且 43:07 我經常說這會讓人感到混亂，因為即使是我們的經濟統計數據 43:14 沒有為即將發生的事情做好準備，他們出生於工業時代 43:19 他們在衡量他們錯過的數字時代時遇到了困難，他們需要五到十年的時間才能趕上 43:27 到現實，同時他們有所有的稅，呃 43:33 關於收入和利潤的稅務信息一般都在那裡，所以我們認為是 43:38 正在發生的是 uh 他們是 uh gdp 統計 uh uh 43:46 正如他們今天所報導的那樣，通貨膨脹率高於實際情況 43:52 並且產出增長低於實際情況 uh 和 uh 43:57 因此再次讓美聯儲感到困惑，讓每個人都感到困惑，但不會讓我們感到困惑，因為我們只專注於 44:05 顛覆性創新，你知道 ii 在感謝 nancy 之前我會在這裡結束 44:11 我將在這裡結束這個概念，即創新將解決很多問題 44:17 我們的問題，自從covid以來，我們有更多的問題，因為供應 44:22 連鎖問題俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭呃現在對covid零容忍 44:28 又是在中國，所以我們還有很多問題要解決 44:33 呃，我認為呃南希的想法讓製造業放心 44:40 美國這裡的複興將是我們國家的福音 44:46 會傷害其他國家，但對我們國家有利，我認為這是美元上漲的原因之一 44:52 呃，我認為我們的生產力提升將是巨大的，因為 44:59 你知道我們失去了很多工業世界給其他國家現在我們可以在這裡用最先進的技術重建它 45:05 技術，從生產力的角度來看，這是非常令人興奮的，所以南希，呃，我想感謝你一次 45:13 再一次，你通過這些圖表使許多人栩栩如生，呃，我在沒有圖表時討論的許多話題 45:21 我知道您的業務致力於 45:26 幫助找出真相在哪裡，我認為您在去年完成了一項出色的工作 45:34 來自噪音的信號現在我們還不能宣布勝利 45:39 因為通貨膨脹並沒有崩潰，但我認為我們都相信這將是一個巨大的驚喜 45:48 對股票市場和固定收益市場極為有利 45:54 非常感謝凱西，好的，謝謝 46:16 你
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