Noise, Nuance, & Numbers | ITK with Cathie Wood
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f982AuHl4YU
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Transcript 0:11 [Music] 0:46 hello everyone it's been a very tough uh month since we last uh 0:53 gave this webinar but i wanted to uh first of all thank you 0:59 very much for your support arc is net inflowing this year 1:04 and i think it's because we give away our research and our research is unique 1:10 it's original research and we are trying to help people understand 1:15 how the world is going to change during the next five to ten years and how 1:20 rapidly it's going to change and uh i i believe that our comparison 1:26 to the nasdaq 100 has also helped the nasdaq 100 according to 1:34 our estimates is exposed to truly disruptive innovation 1:39 to the tune of about 25 percent the rest of it is names you know very well the 1:45 fangs microsoft nvidia and the sundry food and rail and trucker 1:53 companies arc as you know is focused on solely on truly disruptive innovation 2:01 and most of our stocks are not in broad-based benchmarks and i 2:06 believe people who are reading our research advisors investors 2:12 are beginning to understand that they don't have enough exposure 2:17 to those companies and those stocks that are going to be cause transformations in the way the 2:23 world works so we thank you for your support this has been a very difficult time for everyone 2:30 as you know we've always considered considered ourselves the closest you'll find to a venture capital fund in the 2:37 public equity markets and as we all know venture capital funds 2:42 have a five to ten year time investment time horizon our investment time horizon 2:48 is five years and we couldn't be more optimistic about how 2:53 these new technologies are evolving and the reason they're evolving more quickly than we anticipated 3:02 is because we have many more problems than we anticipated i certainly didn't 3:07 anticipate the magnetize magnitude and length of time that we'd be facing uh 3:13 supply chain uh issues and i certainly didn't anticipate russia's inver invasion of 3:22 ukraine so we have many more problems that innovation will will help to solve 3:29 so just wanted to start with that note and 3:35 before i go into monetary policy fiscal policy economic indicators and market 3:40 indicators and end with a little bit more on innovation i'd like to compare what we've been 3:46 through the last year or so to what we went through 3:52 right before kovid so from february 20th to march 20th 3:59 our portfolios our strategies um the the performance they were cut in 4:05 half nearly and it was in one month span as we thought 4:10 the world was going to shut down and we wondered about a depression and 4:16 and a collapse in many other ways and at that time we began to 4:22 analyze the economy or scrutinize every economic indicator that came out 4:28 for clues as to what really was going to happen how successful would the stimulus policies be 4:35 and as you know we started this webinar series or youtube series 4:41 at that time every week we were trying to reassure people that uh especially investors 4:49 that the world was not ending that it did seem as though the global stimulus measures were going 4:55 to work and we also at that time started our mantra innovation solves problems the 5:01 coronavirus crisis created a lot of problems and innovation whether it was 5:07 in the genomic space testing vaccines or in 5:13 the work space the the hybrid actually the remote work 5:18 and now hybrid work these were solving the problems of that day and they're and they're they they're 5:24 continuing these are trends uh that have been unleashed and are unstoppable now 5:31 uh so now we are a year into a similar time 5:37 period the performance of innovation-based portfolios has been 5:43 crucified even though the number of problems 5:48 that have cropped up in the last year have given innovation even more 5:54 opportunity to perform now in because we did so well 6:01 coming out of covid again our companies were really helping to solve problems 6:06 we have faced in the last year the so-called comparison issue now we have a five-year investment time horizon so 6:13 we're not looking at year-to-year comparisons nonetheless the the markets got caught 6:20 up in oh dear how much slower is it going to get and uh and so we've been grappling with 6:27 the the consensus wall street expectations year over year and their 6:33 worries that growth rates would continue to slow down 6:38 into negative territory much like they did during or in the aftermath of the tekken 6:43 telecom bubble we couldn't be further away from the tech and telecom bubble 6:48 the innovation that was accelerated during covid is continuing a pace and i 6:54 will go into in a moment uh what our expectations are 7:00 for revenue and margin growth during the next few years 7:06 what are some of these problems well we see labor shortages still 7:11 and in fact we're beginning to see labor hoarding we see companies now taking on labor 7:17 when uh gdp has gone negative uh they went through such a difficult period 7:23 that they decided oh heck you know i'm able to get this person now i'm even 7:29 though my business is slowing down i i want to make sure that i never go through that again so i think we're 7:34 seeing labor hoarding much the way we saw inventory building 7:40 when manufacturers and retailers couldn't get the supplies they needed 7:45 as consumption of goods non-durables and durables took off during the corona 7:51 virus and so i think for both reasons uh we're we're seeing a margin squeeze 7:59 uh broadly in the economy and we will continue to see uh margins going down 8:05 well elevate innovation solves those problems you can automate more to solve for labor shortages 8:12 automate more to solve for inefficient processes robotic process automation is really 8:20 evolving very very quickly we're seeing supply chain issues because 8:26 of china's now zero kovid tolerance they came on very strongly this week 8:32 saying that was xi jinping's top priority and they did not mention 8:38 growth in the economy as another priority so they seem to have toughened their stance so these supply chain 8:45 issues will probably continue and we 8:50 believe that automation and workarounds thanks to technology are going to help there as 8:57 well we see because of russia's invasion of ukraine uh food prices soaring energy 9:05 prices soaring well electric vehicles are uh we believe starting to take the 9:10 edge off of that there's been an accelerated shift in consumer preferences 9:16 towards uh electric vehicles and so uh that's that that we believe longer term 9:23 will pull energy prices back down i know i've been on record saying that energy prices are going to plummet uh back down 9:30 to where they were in the 70s we believe longer term because the move towards 9:36 electric mobility is unstoppable and it is now happening at an accelerated rate 9:41 uh in terms of food prices going up well ukraine is the red basket of europe and 9:48 so we have to use genomic methods gene editing in particular 9:54 uh to be able to plant in less fertile areas 10:00 and and that work is uh underway and proliferating as well 10:07 uh so what i'd like to do is um talk a little bit about what has 10:12 happened in this last year and especially in the last two quarters 10:18 the risk off period that that that higher interest rates and inflation have caused has forced 10:27 investors uh who are have been risk off don't have as much tolerance for risk as 10:34 they once did to diversify back to their benchmarks that they have done 10:40 we believe and in in so doing they have sold our stocks 10:46 our stocks are not in benchmarks with the exception of tesla in any great 10:52 measure and as you'll notice tesla has held up much better than other of our 10:58 innovation stocks it's because it was put into the s p 500 and other indices 11:04 in recent years actually s p was in late uh in late 2020 and since then it has 11:12 held up better so we believe that 11:18 our technology holdings are the technology and innovation holdings that will serve 11:24 the future and in contrast the s p 500s 11:30 exposure to technology is 28 of that index we don't own any of those 11:36 stocks we do not think that technology stocks in the s p 500 are going to 11:42 participate in the true transformation of the global economy in 11:49 the uh in the next five to 10 years what has happened also algorithms and 11:56 quantitative research directors and analysts 12:02 understand that this is what happens during risk-off periods and so they have helped to exacerbate it with uh with 12:10 their with their algorithms so what we're going to do to help people 12:16 understand what is truly going on out there and how the world is going to look 12:21 not how it has looked which is what the benchmarks are all about we're going to publish a paper 12:28 which addresses head on the uh the criticism that ark's 12:35 portfolios and the companies in the portfolios are really just a repeat of what 12:42 happened during the tech and telecom bubble which as we know did not end well 12:48 well that is how those algorithms and quantitative experts have been 12:54 treating our strategy and the similarity in terms of footprint to nasdaq 13:01 100 circa 2000 is is 13:06 is quite similar uh so we we want to establish now 13:12 how different the fundamentals of our companies are relative to those that were birthed 13:19 during the tekken telecom bubble uh those were seeds and many of the 13:24 seeds failed uh if you look at the nasdaq they won't even publish uh what 13:30 their holdings were in 2000 2001 or 2002 or 2003 we tried to get hold of those 13:36 of those companies they won't show them because so many failed so we had to 13:41 resort to nasdaq 100 and of course there's survivorship bias there the 13:47 largest companies had a much better chance of survival nonetheless with the nasdaq 100 13:54 what we have discovered is that the revenue growth 13:59 of the companies in the nasdaq 100 peaked uh around 99 2000 and then moved 14:09 into negative territory uh by 2003. now if you look at our companies 14:17 we are seeing revenue growth even if you use consensus estimates not 14:24 arcs consensus estimates the same analysts who are recommending whether or not to 14:30 allocate more to benchmark related stocks or our kind of stock 14:36 they are suggesting or their estimate for the next 14:42 two years for our revenue growth the revenue growth of companies in our portfolio is in the 20 to 20 25 to 30 14:50 percent range now our expectations are higher than that but that is a far 14:57 far that's a long way away from negative that's the first thing 15:02 the second is if you look at the gross margin structure of the companies in 15:07 in the nasdaq 100 circa 2000 you'll find that uh the peak in the 15:14 gross margins back then uh and and gross margins are a really good uh um 15:21 give give us a good idea of what underlying profitability uh is uh and 15:28 will be so gross margins slipped from the high 50s high 50 percent range to 15:35 the high 40 percent range as revenue growth was declining 15:41 um the consensus view for the stocks in our portfolio for the next few years is that our gross margins 15:49 will move from the mid 50s into the high 50s and 15:55 our expectations are that they will be closer to the high 60s 16:01 uh so very very very different uh uh time compared to the to the tech and 16:08 telecom bust uh our revenue growth remains robust our gross margin 16:14 structure is increasing and in fact if you do compare the lines at the similar 16:21 point during the tekken telecom correction 16:26 you'll find that our margins have moved above just moved above those margins 16:32 many people criticize our portfolios for the lack of earnings and many of our 16:40 companies have uh very fine earnings but many also many companies 16:48 including those with fine earnings are investing aggressively now in sales and marketing and r d 16:56 uh to make sure they capitalize on some of the biggest opportunities of our 17:01 investment lifetimes and i've been around in the business for 45 years and i've 17:07 never seen the opportunities i see now according to our expectations truly 17:12 disruptive innovation which right now is valued in the global public equity 17:18 markets at roughly 10 trillion dollars roughly 10 percent 17:23 of the globe of of the global equity uh market cap 17:29 we believe that 10 trillion is going to scale to 210 trillion 17:35 by the year 2030 and if you want to see the building blocks 17:41 that make up that analysis take a look at our big ideas 2022 17:47 where we size the opportunities that are evolving thanks to genomic sequencing 17:54 robotics adaptive robotics energy storage artificial intelligence and and 17:59 blockchain technology um so uh just uh and and uh the paper that 18:06 i just referenced we are going to be putting on our funds website uh sometime 18:11 within the next two weeks so we invite you to take a look at that night and day compared to the tech and 18:17 telecom bubble okay now on to 18:22 and i might add the valuations of our companies now if you look at them from many different 18:28 angles uh are are below those of the nasdaq and as i 18:34 just mentioned we do not believe that the nasdaq certainly not the nasdaq 100 18:39 uh includes um nearly enough disruptive uh innovation 18:46 opportunities uh as as our our strategies do okay now we'll go 18:51 to monetary policy fiscal policy economics market indicators and a little 18:57 bit more about innovation monetary policy the fed raised interest 19:02 rates 50 basis points this week and i had been saying that i thought 19:08 that would be a mistake the markets are corroborating that it seems 19:13 that the fed is making a mistake so we've seen the stock market 19:20 go through a spasm the the s p now from its peak is down 15 19:27 the nasdaq from its peak is down 25 percent pure play innovation strategies like 19:34 ours are down 60 to 75 percent uh so that's a that's not just a spasm 19:41 that's a convulsion and you'd think that uh that innovation companies that are not in 19:48 benchmarks are are witnessing the end of their world 19:53 it couldn't be further from the truth this is a a huge inefficiency in the market this 20:00 this tendency to move towards benchmarks in risk-off environments it's ridiculous that 20:07 that the genomic revolution and blockchain technology and crypto 20:13 assets are all behaving exactly alike in fact crypto assets 20:18 uh began to correlate highly with the nasdaq uh starting at the beginning of 20:26 covid before that there was no correlation at all and so we think this is an anomaly a 20:32 massive anomaly and that with time it will correct and uh the efficiencies will be 20:38 introduced back into the market so that's that's the stock market uh the bond market 20:46 this year year to date if you use the 10-year treasury yield and its proxies prior to 1940 20:54 uh year-to-date through april and i'm sure even more so 20:59 through today the bond market has not 21:05 seen worse performance since 1788. 21:10 think about that uh this this is uh this is like a tsunami and an earthquake 21:17 together i used to describe what was going on in the bond market as an earthquake um given the very low base of interest 21:25 rates from which we started now you might be asking why 21:30 uh why would that be true given that the bond market was just a terrible place to invest in the 70s 21:38 when inflation was taking off well the difference between now and then was is back then there were huge coupons 21:47 you know interest rates they were paying were starting at six seven eight nine percent 21:54 uh whereas during covid we got down to 0.5 percent so the base from which we're 22:00 starting is very low and that's why we now have a tsunami the 22:05 10-year treasury yield has gone this year from roughly 1.13 percent 22:13 to 3.11 again huge percentage increase high-yield bonds 22:20 well their spreads have increased and now their spreads are relative to that 22:25 treasury yield and so their spreads have gone up from 2.45 to 4.08 so in addition to the 200 22:35 basis points or the two percentage points that the underlying bond has gone 22:41 up they have gone up another 150 basis points so 22:47 credit is becoming much more expensive if you look at credit default swaps 22:54 which are very sensitive to stresses and strains in in the ecosystem 23:00 essentially they're they're insurance policies that investors take out or speculators take 23:06 out to protect against some negative eventuality 23:14 those have gone from if you use the cdx which is a market 23:19 m-a-r-k-i-t metric based on the five-year credit default 23:25 swaps they have gone from 45 to 46 23:32 as of september 21 to 85 86 23:37 as of today now during covid they went up to uh 23:43 159 so we're not anywhere near there uh during the 23:49 the china the fear that china was going to blow up in early 2016 2016 they got to 23:57 128. well that's a little closer to 85 86 um 24:03 but uh today uh oh we are much closer to where we 24:08 were in 2018 the fourth quarter now what is the significance of that 24:14 uh in the fourth quarter of 2018 the fed the market was beginning to send signals 24:20 that the fed was overdoing it um by raising interest rates uh each 24:26 quarter and uh and so this metric hit 95 then 24:32 so we're at 85.86 so the fed is beginning to get is beginning to understand that there 24:40 are stresses and strains out there and that is why this past wednesday 24:46 the the fear that the fed would raise interest rates 75 basis points either 24:53 this go around or next go around chairman powell put to rest and said 24:58 they were not contemplating it and so he he was considered he he sent um 25:04 relative to expectations a positive signal and all the markets seem to 25:11 enjoy uh a run for that one day uh based on the notion that the fed was beginning to 25:16 understand that maybe they're overdoing it um we think over the next month uh now 25:24 they have another meeting in june over the next month we believe that the fed is going to get a lot of data today was 25:31 one of the uh was one of those days um with the employment report that is 25:37 going to put another measure of caution into into 25:43 their cadence here so we would be surprised to see another 50 basis point move 25:49 maybe they do 25 we still think they're overdoing it and the markets won't be happy 25:55 but i think what's happening here is this fed and the members of the fed are so afraid that they will be stuck 26:02 with the legacy of reigniting inflation and not being able to put the genie back 26:08 in the bottle they're so afraid of that that they are they're speaking very 26:15 fiercely right now and they've made a bold move 50 basis points when the base 26:20 is only 25 basis points so we shall see we've seen m2's growth 26:26 decelerate from 27 percent to 9.9 percent 26:31 and if you look at it on a that's on a year-over-year basis if you look at it on a three-month moving average basis 26:38 and annualize that we're in the low single digits and it's kind of consistent with what 26:45 happened in the gdp report i'll get into that in a moment but that gdp report was 26:51 was negative fiscal policy uh all right uh on a year-over-year 26:57 basis uh uh spending is down 20 this is another big break on the economy 27:05 there's we've gone from you know monetary stimulus and fiscal policy 27:11 policy stimulus to restraint on both and that's that's 27:16 that's very sudden within a year's time and of course we are comparing against 27:22 the stimulus payments last year so it's not surprising we wouldn't expect to 27:28 continue those but nonetheless that is a break compared to where we were and i 27:34 think the odds of any tax package going through or build back better uh going 27:39 through is is very low we're in midterm elections uh things are not going well 27:44 generally for the economy gas prices russia foreign policy russian ukraine 27:49 war and so forth so i don't think that anyone 27:55 uh who's who's going to be a part of the midterm elections will want to participate in controversies around any 28:02 of those uh last year on i mean last month on uh youtube 28:07 uh i gave um i gave two points of view uh uh same same everyone's looking at 28:14 the same numbers uh but there were two points of view that were 28:21 were very different from one another one was the economy is charging ahead 28:26 inflation's going to continue rates will continue to go up we don't think there'll be a recession 28:33 and so forth and then the other one is whoa watch out inventories are building 28:39 consumption is slowing down consumer sentiment is falling apart um we risk a 28:45 recession here and oh by the way china and russia china and europe are in uh are in recession 28:52 well i think um i think that the first camp is capitulating to the second camp 28:59 it's still fighting this notion that gdp actually fell this in real terms now 29:04 take away inflation gdp unit growth fell quartered a quarter at an annual 29:10 rate by 1.4 percent uh the consumption of goods slipped slightly that's what 29:17 we're expecting meanwhile inventories are piling up uh government spending went down as i 29:22 mentioned um imports surged uh 29:27 and so a lot of those economists and strategists in the first 29:33 camp were saying oh that's a exogenous that's an anomaly you've got to adjust 29:39 for that no you don't import surged and went straight into inventories they canceled each other out 29:46 so you don't you don't so what's so fascinating about uh the world of economic experts today 29:53 um some were trained in economics to be sure many were not they were trained 29:59 they were they became uh they learned after they got their mbas 30:06 and maybe they didn't go through into the depth uh that many of us had to back 30:11 in the day when everybody came into this business with an economics degree so 30:16 there's a lot of superficial analysis out there and uh and a lot of 30:22 cherry-picking also in terms of indicators um so we do think that the 30:29 the the a recession is quite possible here in the united states a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters 30:36 of declines in gdp we've had one 30:42 and i wouldn't be surprised to see another either in the second quarter or the 30:48 third so technically we would if we were positive in the second and went negative again in the third that's not a 30:54 technical recession but in my book it's close enough um you know real average hourly earnings 31:01 have been falling since april of 21 31:07 on a year-over-year basis they were down 3.4 percent in april of 21. they're still down 2.6 31:15 but there's been a consistent decline over the past year and i think those in the high inflation 31:23 camp expected wage growth to uh 31:28 to start to continue to accelerate continue accelerating 31:34 that is not happening and i think that i think that's the linchpin of those who 31:41 think that inflation is out of uh is out of control 31:46 and um is only going to get worse so we're paying very uh uh we're paying a lot of attention 31:53 to uh to the um wages uh speaking of which today was 31:59 employment friday and uh the report was pretty much in line i won't go through all the details 32:05 but there were meaning it was a good report we're still uh growing uh 32:11 employment at a roughly 400 000 per month clip 32:17 i have a suspicion that we're seeing some hoarding uh in those numbers 32:23 and and we're getting a clue that we may be nearing the end of 32:29 employment increases at least strong ones the household employment 32:37 gauge household employment it's also known as establishment employment it declined 32:44 353 000 while non-farm payroll employment increased almost 400 000 32:51 um the reason i pay a lot of attention to household is because it's a leading 32:56 indicator of the headline non-farm payroll and there are a lot more small 33:02 businesses in it we also saw manpower suggest that 33:08 employment was weakening the beige book which is a fed publication said it was fraying at the edges the 33:15 national federation of independent business against smaller businesses employment went down and even evercore 33:22 isis cfa survey is saying that employment gains 33:29 are coming are coming down or not as rapid as they once were we're getting 33:34 the challenger survey i think for the first time it is the first time since covid started the challenger uh layoff 33:42 survey showed an increase year over year and that they tend to measure 33:48 layoffs that are sort of headline layoffs that they're they're bigger than just one-offs amazon 33:55 in its quarterly report said we overhired we have too many employees now uh we're seeing mortgage 34:02 companies uh laying off people you saw the zillow report last night saying housing's coming off the boil 34:09 affordability is a real problem now the other uh the other 34:15 uh data point of note was average hourly earnings and so average hourly earnings 34:21 this is this is what i was mentioning just a bit ago um 34:27 are a a good gauge of wage gains now we know that the shortages in labor 34:34 have been at the um at the lower income end of the range 34:39 they're they're across the board but leisure hospitality uh has had a a very difficult time finding 34:47 people and they have been bidding up wages in this report average hourly earnings were up only 0.3 percent and if you look 34:56 at the last that that would be 5.5 on a year-over-year basis a tick down 35:03 from 5.6 percent and if you look at the last three months you'll see the three-month moving 35:10 average uh percentage change annualized of this measure of wages is up 3.6 35:18 so we're coming down from that five and a half percent year-over-year um and if 35:24 we continue to show 0.3 percent or lower i think we're going to see some real 35:31 head fakes a lot of people are expecting wages to go up and to the right wage 35:38 wage acceleration in in the rate of change okay now i know 35:45 you've been bombarded by headlines about inflation and we are not ignoring them 35:51 did we expect supply chain issues the magnitude of what we've seen or zero covet policy in china or russia's 35:58 invasion of ukraine absolutely not have we been wrong on uh how quickly 36:04 inflation would dissipate absolutely for those reasons we believe um so let's just face the music ppi 36:12 inflation up 11.2 percent year-over-year uh cpi up 8.5 36:19 personal consumption deflator up 5.2 percent 36:25 and the metric that the fed pays the most attention to is core pce deflator 36:32 core personal consumption expenditures deflator so that's excluding food and energy 36:38 which they consider to be very volatile and more volatile than the underlying core 36:44 inflation is 5.2 percent uh now if you've listened to 36:51 to that what you're what you're probably thinking is whoops input prices are rising faster than 36:59 output prices the ppi is rising faster than the p the the cpi 37:04 and and the pce deflator what does that mean that means uh margin degradation 37:11 probably so disappointing profits for for companies that are not controlling their 37:16 expenses perhaps by using more automation and increasing productivity 37:23 again innovation solves problems this is going to become a big problem and we 37:28 think that the adoption of innovation strat innovative strategies 37:33 to lower costs and sustained margins is is 37:39 going to become another mantra innovation solves problems um 37:44 if you look at the personal consumption deflator that too um 37:51 was up only 0.3 last month which mean which makes the 37:57 second consecutive month it was up 0.3 and expectations are that the next month 38:03 will be up 0.3 so here again we have an annualized rate of about three and a 38:08 half percent well below where we are now uh on the year-over-year basis 38:13 now what really shocked the markets this week was the productivity report 38:20 productivity plummeted unit labor costs uh 38:25 quarter to quarter at an annual rate this is not year over year this is quarter to quarter annualized rate up 38:32 11.6 this is what's telling you we're going to see uh margin uh compression 38:39 in in in corporate america now the quarter before it was one percent so 38:47 uh that's unit labor cost the quarter before didn't seem to be a problem productivity was 38:53 um was overtaking a lot of the the weight absorbing a lot of the wage growth that 38:59 was not true this last quarter and it gets back to this idea that maybe we're hoarding labor maybe we're hoarding 39:06 labor and if we are i have a feeling that margin compression will cause a disgorgement and an increase in the 39:13 unemployment rate the unemployment rate was 3.6 this last month didn't change from last 39:19 uh from last month uh but i have a feeling uh the puzzle we're putting together means that it will go up 39:27 now some more uh evidence that inflation is uh receding here already 39:35 if you look at used car prices this was a leading indicator during uh 39:40 during the um uh covet crisis that of how high inflation would go and how 39:46 rapidly it would increase uh at one point uh used car prices were up 60 39:51 percent uh versus their pre-covet level well um used car prices have been 39:57 falling uh for three months now uh they're now up 14 uh year-over-year 40:04 but i think at their peak on a year-over-year basis uh they were up in the mid 40s that 60 40:10 percent number was versus uh the pre-covered level so we've come down and used car price 40:18 inflation from the mid-40s down to about 14 percent 40:23 and at the same time one of the reasons is sales of used cars over a one-month 40:30 period dropped by 13 and the mannheim used car index folks 40:39 the people who put that together remarked that this was highly unusual at this time because tax refunds usually 40:47 cause an increase so down 13 percent and on a 40:52 year-over-year basis that takes used-car sales down by 40:57 21 new car sales are down 22 on a year-over-year basis 41:05 car prices at one point used and new accounted for one-third of the increase 41:11 in the inflation rate and now they're reversing uh so that's that's very important i also uh 41:20 want to point out that oil prices peaked in the 130s per barrel in march 41:28 and they're down to 110. now so that means they're down pretty significantly month to month i don't 41:34 know exactly the survey dates uh uh what the those prices were on those dates but 41:40 uh energy prices were the other reason behind the supercharged inflation rate 41:47 we've seen and now they're starting to come down now you know if russia ukraine gets worse 41:54 um maybe we have a problem if europe basically says to russia we're not 42:00 taking any more of your oil maybe we have another shock but i've actually been surprised i would have expected 42:05 more follow through after that 1 30 given how serious this invasion has been 42:12 one of the reasons it probably hasn't happened is china i think china's in recession europe's in recession u.s had 42:19 a negative gdp quarter there's demand destruction as people start substituting 42:25 scooters and bikes for and motorcycles for cars so oil is no 42:32 longer the propellant to inflation at least not yet 42:37 and even wheat food prices up a lot and again early march seemed to peak 42:43 wheat and um it's down five percent in the last month so uh maybe coming off the boil here we 42:51 shall see and even in the technology space we keep track of gpus uh semiconductors uh 42:59 and used in gaming and crypto and in the in on the secondary market there 43:05 was big speculation there were shortages those have come off from 1500 i think 43:11 this is for the rtx gpu nvidias have come off from 1500 43:18 to 700. so they've been cut by more than half so that's also quite interesting 43:23 uh you know chairman powell said that inflation might have peaked in 43:29 march and so you can see some of the reasons he said that and it's a good thing that he's thinking that uh because 43:36 we believe that the rate of interest rate increases right now 43:41 is um is is onerous for the economy and i don't 43:47 believe that uh 1.4 percent drop in gdp even before this 50 rate hike was 43:55 a fluke i think it's sending a real message to the fed as are some of these pricing 44:01 indicators okay we'll we'll summarize the market indicators we've done that to some extent already and then turn back 44:08 to innovation for a moment uh so we've gone through uh what's happened to the 44:15 stock the the various averages broad-based averages out there um if you look at the s p 500 year-to-date 44:23 um energy is the only sector that's up it's up 47 so if you didn't own energy and we 44:30 don't um we think over the next five years um uh the the energy unwinds going to be 44:37 pretty severe uh but it's up 47 percent um so utilities were 44:44 essentially flat down a little bit staples as well down just a little bit uh on the other side you have 44:50 communication services so you know some of the beloved stocks in in the broad-based 44:56 benchmarks uh so facebook netflix amazon 45:01 uh the com services uh down 25 although i think amazon's in consumer 45:07 discretionary which is down 24 and technology broadly is down 20 as i 45:13 mentioned we do not own the technology stocks in the s p 500 would we have done 45:18 better if we did yes but we don't think they are the leaders of the future and uh we're all about how 45:26 the world is going to change and we're looking for those exponential growth trajectories uh that will happen along 45:34 the way i mentioned in terms of bonds i'll just reiterate that if you look at credit default swaps the fed's getting a 45:41 message like it did in 2018 watch out watch out 45:46 commodity prices they look like they're in a topping formation and one of the reasons they 45:53 are is the dollar has been on on a run it's up over 15 percent since 46:00 it's low last year uh that is a huge move and it's not just against emerging 46:06 market currencies they're doing worse it's against the euro the euro and uh 46:11 the pound and and the yen especially i've been shocked at the yen it's uh uh 46:17 gone from 105 to the dollar to about 130 to the dollar in the span of a year 46:22 that's huge uh and it's making our uh our goods more expensive to the rest of 46:29 the world so our export growth is probably going to slow down not only because many countries are in recession 46:37 but also because our prices have gone up so much to them given their currency 46:42 declines and as i mentioned uh crypto a new asset class should not look 46:50 like the nasdaq but it does it's highly correlated right now you know you know you're in a bear 46:57 market and maybe close to the end when everything starts acting alike and we're seeing uh 47:04 the capitulation of one market after the other i think the fed's going to get the 47:10 message the final the final thing i'll leave you with and 47:15 simon barnett one of our three genomic revolution analysts 47:21 will be with me next next youtube to talk a little bit about the genomic 47:28 revolution and how they've been compiling statistics 47:34 a little bit like what we've done comparing all of our strategies revenue and gross margin dynamics 47:41 to to to the tekken telecom bust they're doing the same just for the genomics 47:47 revolution and they are seeing now that the tough comps 47:52 are um are are soon to be behind us we're just we're 47:58 cycling through them they're seeing a re-acceleration in revenue growth from 48:04 pretty hefty levels already and margin expansion 48:09 and i think i've heard in this earnings season simon say 48:15 uh you know this is much better than i thought it was going to be much sooner 48:20 this trend is happening faster and again i'll i'll go back to as as i hope i'm 48:25 not boring you with it but innovation does solve problems uh and it is not being rewarded in the market right now 48:32 it's rewarded in the private markets uh we have seen some down rounds uh many of 48:39 those have been in more metoo companies that are not involved in the truly disruptive innovation space 48:46 given the the route in the public equity markets when it comes to innovation we'll 48:52 probably see uh some more down rounds uh or pushing out of funding until um 49:00 until the public markets become more rational we do not believe the public markets are rational right now uh the 49:07 selling has been indiscriminate a certain ilk of stock that algorithms and 49:12 quants think uh do not belong or will not perform well in the next 49:18 day or week or month that's not what we do we're focused on a five-year investment time horizon 49:25 uh i would ask you to tune into our market update next tuesday if you'd like to hear our 49:32 analysts talk about their companies and stocks and 49:38 and i think when you listen to them and when you read our research which we 49:43 freely give away or if you tune into our analysts on twitter 49:49 you'll see the kinds of conversations they're having with experts deep deep deep in the 49:55 bowels of companies that are at the forefront of innovation 50:01 and you'll see how sophisticated those discussions are you'll see 50:07 how profound those discussions are in terms of how they're going to change 50:13 the way we work and live and how much better they're going to make the world 50:19 so given the dreariness in the equity markets and the bond markets today and 50:24 now increasingly the commodities markets and crypto uh take a look at our research 50:30 read our twitter profiles for some hope and optimism because 50:36 i can't tell you how excited and confident we are confident we are 50:42 that uh our platforms are going to transform the world and are entering 50:47 exponential growth trajectories now this is not about five years from now we are 50:53 now living the reality that was only a dream in the tekken telecom bubble that was a 51:00 dream and you had investors uh piling into the dream 51:05 today is is the reality and they're running away for it from it they're running for the hills running for their 51:11 benchmarks uh the decisions in the tech and telecom bubble ended badly 51:18 the the decisions those running away from innovation right now we believe those decisions will end badly as well 51:26 so again read our research for hope optimism and 51:32 really a thrilling look at what the future is going to hold 51:37 thank you so much [Music] 51:57 you
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成績單 0:11 [音樂] 0:46 大家好，自從我們上次以來，這是一個非常艱難的一個月 0:53 舉辦了這個網絡研討會，但我想首先謝謝 0:59 非常感謝您的支持弧今年淨流入 1:04 我認為這是因為我們放棄了我們的研究，我們的研究是獨一無二的 1:10 這是原始研究，我們正在努力幫助人們理解 1:15 在接下來的五到十年中，世界將如何變化以及如何 1:20 很快它就會改變，嗯，我相信我們的比較 1:26 納斯達克100指數也幫助納斯達克100指數 1:34 我們的估計暴露於真正的顛覆性創新 1:39 大約 25% 是你非常熟悉的名字 1:45 獠牙 微軟 英偉達 雜貨食品 鐵路和卡車司機 1:53 如您所知，公司只專注於真正的顛覆性創新 2:01 而且我們的大多數股票不在廣泛的基準中，而且我 2:06 相信閱讀我們研究顧問的人投資者 2:12 開始明白他們沒有足夠的曝光率 2:17 對於那些將導致轉型的公司和股票 2:23 世界運轉，所以我們感謝您的支持這對每個人來說都是一個非常艱難的時期 2:30 如您所知，我們一直認為自己是最接近風險投資基金的公司。 2:37 公共股票市場和眾所周知的風險投資基金 2:42 有五到十年的投資時間範圍 我們的投資時間範圍 2:48 是五年，我們對如何 2:53 這些新技術正在發展，以及它們發展速度比我們預期的更快的原因 3:02 是因為我們遇到的問題比我們預期的要多 我當然沒有 3:07 預計我們將面臨的磁化幅度和時間長度 3:13 供應鏈呃問題，我當然沒有預料到俄羅斯會入侵 3:22 烏克蘭，所以我們有更多的問題需要創新來解決 3:29 所以只想從那張紙條開始 3:35 在我進入貨幣政策財政政策經濟指標和市場之前 3:40 指標，最後再談一點創新 我想比較一下我們的經歷 3:46 通過過去一年左右我們所經歷的 3:52 就在 2 月 20 日至 3 月 20 日期間，在科維德之前 3:59 我們的投資組合 我們的策略 um 他們被削減的表現 4:05 快一半了，就像我們想像的那樣，在一個月的時間裡 4:10 世界將要關閉，我們想知道抑鬱症和 4:16 以及許多其他方面的崩潰，那時我們開始 4:22 分析經濟或仔細檢查出現的每一個經濟指標 4:28 尋找真正會發生什麼的線索，刺激政策將如何成功 4:35 如您所知，我們開始了這個網絡研討會系列或 youtube 系列 4:41 那個時候每週我們都在試圖向人們保證，呃，尤其是投資者 4:49 世界並未終結 似乎全球刺激措施正在實施 4:55 工作，我們也在那個時候開始了我們的口頭禪創新解決問題 5:01 冠狀病毒危機創造了很多問題和創新，無論是 5:07 在基因組空間測試疫苗或 5:13 工作空間 混合動力 實際上是遠程工作 5:18 現在混合工作這些解決了當時的問題 5:24 繼續這些趨勢，呃，已經釋放出來，現在勢不可擋 5:31 嗯，所以現在我們進入了相似的一年 5:37 期間，基於創新的投資組合的表現一直 5:43 即使問題的數量也被釘在十字架上 5:48 去年出現的那些給創新帶來了更多 5:54 現在有機會表演，因為我們做得很好 6:01 再次擺脫covid 我們的公司確實在幫助解決問題 6:06 我們在去年遇到了所謂的比較問題，現在我們有一個五年的投資時間範圍，所以 6:13 儘管市場被抓住了，但我們沒有查看年度比較 6:20 哦，親愛的，它會變慢多少，嗯，所以我們一直在努力解決 6:27 華爾街的共識預期年復一年及其 6:33 擔心增長率將繼續放緩 6:38 進入負面領域，就像他們在鐵拳期間或之後所做的那樣 6:43 電信泡沫 我們離科技和電信泡沫已經很遠了 6:48 在covid期間加速的創新正在繼續前進，我 6:54 馬上就會進入我們的期望是什麼 7:00 未來幾年的收入和利潤率增長 7:06 其中一些問題是什麼？我們仍然看到勞動力短缺 7:11 事實上，我們開始看到勞動力囤積，我們看到公司現在開始招聘勞動力 7:17 當呃gdp變成負數的時候呃他們經歷了這麼艱難的時期 7:23 他們決定哦，見鬼，你知道我現在能得到這個人，我什至 7:29 雖然我的生意正在放緩，但我想確保我再也不會經歷這樣的事情，所以我認為我們是 7:34 看到勞動力囤積就像我們看到庫存增加一樣 7:40 當製造商和零售商無法獲得所需的供應時 7:45 隨著非耐用品和耐用品的消費在新冠疫情期間起飛 7:51 病毒，所以我認為出於兩個原因，呃，我們正在看到利潤壓縮 7:59 呃，在經濟中，我們將繼續看到呃利潤率下降 8:05 Well elevate Innovation 解決了您可以通過更多自動化來解決勞動力短缺的問題 8:12 自動化更多以解決低效流程機器人流程自動化真的是 8:20 發展非常迅速，我們看到供應鏈問題，因為 8:26 中國現在對科維德的零容忍度，他們本週表現得非常強烈 8:32 說這是習近平的頭等大事，他們沒提 8:38 經濟增長作為另一個優先事項，因此他們似乎加強了立場，因此這些供應鏈 8:45 問題可能會繼續，我們 8:50 相信技術帶來的自動化和變通方法將在這方面有所幫助 8:57 好吧我們看到因為俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭呃食品價格飆升能源 9:05 價格飛漲 電動汽車是呃我們相信開始走 9:10 消費者偏好加速轉變 9:16 朝著呃電動汽車，所以呃，這就是我們認為長期的 9:23 將拉低能源價格我知道我一直在記錄說能源價格會暴跌 9:30 到他們在 70 年代的位置，我們認為從長遠來看，因為朝著 9:36 電動汽車是不可阻擋的，現在正在加速發生 9:41 嗯，就食品價格上漲而言，烏克蘭是歐洲的紅色籃子和 9:48 所以我們必須使用基因組方法，特別是基因編輯 9:54 呃能夠在不太肥沃的地區種植 10:00 並且這項工作正在進行中並且還在增加 10:07 嗯，所以我想做的是，嗯，談談有什麼 10:12 發生在去年，尤其是最近兩個季度 10:18 高利率和通貨膨脹導致的避險期迫使 10:27 那些已經避險的投資者對風險的承受能力不如 10:34 他們曾經做過多元化回到他們所做的基準 10:40 我們相信並且這樣做他們已經賣掉了我們的股票 10:46 除了特斯拉，我們的股票不在任何基準 10:52 測量一下，你會發現特斯拉的表現比我們其他的要好得多 10:58 創新股因為被納入標普500等指數 11:04 近年來，實際上 sp 在 2020 年末，呃，從那時起就已經晚了 11:12 保持得更好，所以我們相信 11:18 我們的技術資產是將服務的技術和創新資產 11:24 未來與 sp 500 的對比 11:30 接觸技術是該指數中的 28 個，我們不擁有這些指數中的任何一個 11:36 股票 我們認為標準普爾 500 指數中的科技股不會 11:42 參與全球經濟的真正轉型 11:49 呃在接下來的五到十年裡發生了什麼還有算法和 11:56 定量研究主管和分析師 12:02 了解這是在避險期間發生的事情，因此他們幫助加劇了這種情況 12:10 他們用他們的算法，所以我們要做什麼來幫助人們 12:16 了解那裡真正發生的事情以及世界的樣子 12:21 不是它看起來如何，這就是基準的全部內容，我們將發表一篇論文 12:28 它直接解決了方舟的批評 12:35 投資組合和投資組合中的公司實際上只是重複 12:42 發生在科技和電信泡沫期間，我們知道這並沒有很好地結束 12:48 好吧，那些算法和量化專家就是這樣 12:54 處理我們的策略以及在足跡方面與納斯達克的相似性 13:01 100 大約 2000 是 13:06 很相似，所以我們現在要建立 13:12 我們公司的基本面相對於那些誕生的公司有多麼不同 13:19 在鐵拳電信泡沫期間，那些是種子和許多 13:24 種子失敗了，呃，如果你看看納斯達克，他們甚至不會發布呃什麼 13:30 他們的資產是在 2000 年 2001 年或 2002 年或 2003 年 我們試圖抓住那些 13:36 在那些公司中，他們不會向他們展示，因為太多失敗了，所以我們不得不 13:41 訴諸納斯達克 100，當然存在生存偏差 13:47 儘管如此，納斯達克 100 指數最大的公司仍有更好的生存機會 13:54 我們發現收入增長 13:59 納斯達克 100 指數中的公司在 2000 年 99 點左右達到頂峰，然後移動 14:09 到 2003 年進入負值領域。現在如果你看看我們的公司 14:17 即使您使用共識估計值，我們也看到了收入增長 14:24 arcs 共識估計了推薦是否 14:30 將更多分配給基準相關股票或我們的股票 14:36 他們正在建議或他們對下一個的估計 14:42 我們的收入增長兩年 我們投資組合中公司的收入增長在 20 到 20 25 到 30 14:50 百分比範圍現在我們的期望高於此，但這是一個很遠 14:57 離負面還有很長的路要走，這是第一件事 15:02 第二個是如果你看一下這些公司的毛利率結構 15:07 在 2000 年左右的納斯達克 100 指數中，你會發現 15:14 當時的毛利率呃和毛利率是一個非常好的呃呃 15:21 給我們一個關於潛在盈利能力的好主意 15:28 毛利率會從 50 年代的高 50% 範圍滑落到 15:35 由於收入增長下降，高達 40% 的範圍 15:41 嗯，我們對未來幾年投資組合中股票的普遍看法是，我們的毛利率 15:49 將從 50 年代中期進入 50 年代中期 15:55 我們的期望是它們將更接近 60 年代的高位 16:01 呃非常非常非常不同呃呃時間與技術相比 16:08 電信破產 呃 我們的收入增長依然強勁 我們的毛利率 16:14 結構正在增加，事實上，如果你比較類似的行 16:21 鐵拳電信修正期間的點 16:26 你會發現我們的邊距已經移動到剛剛移動到這些邊距之上 16:32 許多人批評我們的投資組合缺乏收益，而且我們的許多 16:40 公司有很好的收益但是很多也很多公司 16:48 包括那些收入不錯的人現在都在積極投資於銷售、營銷和研發 16:56 確保他們利用我們的一些最大機會 17:01 投資壽命，我已經在這個行業工作了 45 年，我已經 17:07 從未真正按照我們的期望看到我現在看到的機會 17:12 目前在全球公共股權中受到重視的顛覆性創新 17:18 大約 10 萬億美元的市場 大約 10% 17:23 全球股票 uh 市值的全球 17:29 我們相信 10 萬億將擴大到 210 萬億 17:35 到 2030 年，如果你想看到積木 17:41 構成該分析的，看看我們的 2022 年大創意 17:47 由於基因組測序，我們可以評估正在發展的機會 17:54 機器人 自適應機器人 儲能 人工智能 和 17:59 區塊鏈技術嗯所以呃只是呃和呃那篇論文 18:06 我只是提到我們將在某個時候將我們的資金網站放在我們的基金網站上 18:11 在接下來的兩週內，我們邀請您來看看與技術和 18:17 電信泡沫現在還好 18:22 如果你從許多不同的角度來看它們，我現在可能會加上我們公司的估值 18:28 角度 uh 低於納斯達克的角度，因為我 18:34 剛才提到我們不相信納斯達克肯定不是納斯達克100 18:39 呃包括呃幾乎足夠的顛覆性呃創新 18:46 機會，嗯，因為我們的策略還可以，現在我們會走了 18:51 貨幣政策 財政政策 經濟 市場 指標 和 一點 18:57 更多關於美聯儲提高利率的創新貨幣政策 19:02 本周利率為 50 個基點，我一直在說我認為 19:08 市場正在證實這似乎是一個錯誤 19:13 美聯儲犯了一個錯誤，所以我們已經看到了股市 19:20 經歷痙攣，現在的 sp 從峰值下降 15 19:27 納斯達克指數從峰值下跌了 25% 純粹的創新策略，比如 19:34 我們的下降了 60% 到 75% 呃，所以這不僅僅是痙攣 19:41 那是一種抽搐，你會認為呃那些不在的創新公司 19:48 基準正在見證他們的世界末日 19:53 這與事實相去甚遠 這是市場上的一個巨大的低效率 20:00 這種在規避風險的環境中趨向基準的趨勢，這很荒謬 20:07 基因組革命和區塊鏈技術和加密 20:13 資產的行為都完全一樣，實際上是加密資產 20:18 uh 開始與納斯達克 uh 高度相關 20:26 covid 之前根本沒有相關性，所以我們認為這是一個異常 20:32 巨大的異常，隨著時間的推移它會糾正，效率將是 20:38 重新引入市場，這就是股票市場，呃債券市場 20:46 如果您使用 1940 年之前的 10 年期國債收益率及其代理，則今年迄今 20:54 呃年初至今到四月，我敢肯定更是如此 20:59 到今天為止，債券市場還沒有 21:05 自 1788 年以來表現更差。 21:10 想想 呃 這個 這是 呃 這 就像海嘯和地震 21:17 考慮到利息基數非常低，我曾經一起將債券市場上發生的事情描述為地震 21:25 我們現在開始的費率 你可能會問為什麼 21:30 呃，鑑於債券市場在 70 年代只是一個糟糕的投資場所，為什麼這是真的？ 21:38 當通貨膨脹好轉時，現在和那時的區別是那時有巨額優惠券 21:47 你知道他們支付的利率從百分之六七八九開始 21:54 呃，而在新冠疫情期間，我們下降到了 0.5%，所以我們的基礎是 22:00 起步非常低，這就是為什麼我們現在有海嘯 22:05 今年 10 年期國債收益率已從大約 1.13% 下降 22:13 高收益債券再次大幅上漲至3.11 22:20 好吧，他們的點差增加了，現在他們的點差是相對的 22:25 國債收益率，因此它們的價差從 2.45 上升到 4.08，因此除了 200 22:35 基點或標的債券的兩個百分點 22:41 上漲了，他們又上漲了 150 個基點，所以 22:47 如果您查看信用違約掉期，信用將變得更加昂貴 22:54 它們對生態系統中的壓力和應變非常敏感 23:00 本質上，它們是投資者購買或投機者購買的保險單 23:06 為了防止一些負面的可能性 23:14 如果您使用作為市場的 cdx，那些已經消失了 23:19 基於五年信用違約的markit指標 23:25 交換他們從 45 到 46 23:32 截至 9 月 21 日至 85 86 23:37 截至今天，在covid期間，他們上升到呃 23:43 159 所以我們不在附近 23:49 中國 2016 年初中國將要爆炸的恐懼 2016 他們必須 23:57 128. 這有點接近 85 86 um 24:03 但是呃今天呃哦我們離我們的地方更近了 24:08 2018年第四季度現在有什麼意義 24:14 呃2018年第四季度美聯儲市場開始發出信號 24:20 美聯儲通過提高利率做得過火了 24:26 季度和呃，所以這個指標達到了 95 24:32 所以我們在 85.86 所以美聯儲開始明白了 24:40 壓力和壓力在那裡，這就是為什麼上週三 24:46 對美聯儲加息 75 個基點的擔憂 24:53 這繞或下繞 鮑威爾主席休息並說 24:58 他們沒有考慮過，所以他被認為是他派來的 25:04 相對於預期一個積極的信號，所有市場似乎 25:11 享受 uh 在那一天 uh 基於美聯儲開始 25:16 明白，也許他們做得過火了，嗯，我們認為在下個月，嗯，現在 25:24 他們將在下個月的 6 月召開另一次會議，我們相信美聯儲今天將獲得大量數據 25:31 呃其中一個是那些日子之一，嗯，就業報告是 25:37 將採取另一種謹慎措施 25:43 他們在這裡的節奏，所以我們會驚訝地看到另一個 50 個基點的變動 25:49 也許他們會這樣做 25 我們仍然認為他們做得過火了，市場不會高興 25:55 但我認為這裡發生的事情是美聯儲，美聯儲的成員非常害怕他們會被卡住 26:02 重新點燃通貨膨脹的遺產，無法讓精靈回歸 26:08 在瓶子裡，他們非常害怕，以至於他們說得很 26:15 現在非常激烈，他們在基數基礎上採取了 50 個基點的大膽舉措 26:20 只有 25 個基點，所以我們將看到 m2 的增長 26:26 從 27% 降至 9.9% 26:31 如果你看它是按年計算的 如果你看它是在三個月移動平均的基礎上 26:38 並每年計算我們處於低個位數，這與什麼一致 26:45 發生在 gdp 報告中，我稍後再談，但 gdp 報告是 26:51 是負財政政策嗎，嗯，嗯，同比 26:57 基礎呃呃支出下降 20 這是經濟的另一個重大突破 27:05 我們已經從你那裡知道了貨幣刺激和財政政策 27:11 政策刺激對兩者都進行限制，僅此而已 27:16 這在一年的時間內非常突然，當然我們正在比較 27:22 去年的刺激支付，所以我們不會期望這並不奇怪 27:28 繼續那些，但與我們和我相比，這是一個休息 27:34 認為任何稅收方案通過或重建的可能性會更好 27:39 通過率非常低，我們正在進行中期選舉，嗯，事情進展不順利 27:44 一般為了經濟 天然氣價格 俄羅斯 外交政策 俄羅斯 烏克蘭 27:49 戰爭等等，所以我不認為任何人 27:55 呃，誰將參加中期選舉，誰會想要參與圍繞任何 28:02 那些呃去年在我的意思是上個月在呃 youtube 28:07 呃我給了我給了兩個觀點 28:14 相同的數字，呃，但有兩個觀點是 28:21 彼此非常不同 一個是經濟正在向前推進 28:26 通脹將繼續 利率將繼續上升 我們認為不會出現衰退 28:33 依此類推，然後另一個是哇小心庫存正在增加 28:39 消費正在放緩 消費者情緒正在崩潰 嗯，我們冒著風險 28:45 經濟衰退在這里和哦順便說一句中國和俄羅斯中國和歐洲在呃經濟衰退中 28:52 嗯，我想，嗯，我認為第一陣營正在向第二陣營投降 28:59 它仍在與這種觀念作鬥爭，即現在國內生產總值實際上實際上已經下降了 29:04 扣除通脹 GDP 單位增長率下降了四分之一季度 29:10 率1.4% 呃商品消費小幅下滑就是這樣 29:17 我們預計同時庫存在增加 呃政府支出下降了，因為我 29:22 提到嗯進口猛增呃 29:27 很多經濟學家和戰略家一開始 29:33 營地說哦，那是外生的，是你必須調整的異常 29:39 為此，不，您不進口激增並直接進入庫存，他們相互抵消了 29:46 所以你不你不那麼今天的經濟專家世界有什麼令人著迷的 29:53 嗯，有些人接受過經濟學培訓，以確保許多人沒有接受過培訓 29:59 他們是他們成為呃他們在獲得MBA學位後學到的 30:06 也許他們沒有進入我們許多人不得不支持的深度 30:11 在每個人都帶著經濟學學位進入這個行業的那一天 30:16 那裡有很多膚淺的分析，呃，還有很多 30:22 在指標方面也很挑剔，所以我們確實認為 30:29 在美國很可能出現衰退 衰退被定義為連續兩個季度 30:36 國內生產總值的下降，我們有一個 30:42 在第二季度或第二季度看到另一個我不會感到驚訝 30:48 第三，所以從技術上講，如果我們在第二個是積極的，在第三個又是消極的，那不是 30:54 技術性衰退，但在我的書中，它已經足夠接近了，你知道真正的平均每小時收入 31:01 自4月21日以來一直在下跌 31:07 與去年同期相比，它們在 21 年 4 月下降了 3.4%。它們仍然下降了 2.6 31:15 但過去一年一直在下降，我認為那些處於高通脹 31:23 營地預期工資增長到呃 31:28 開始 繼續加速 繼續加速 31:34 這沒有發生，我認為我認為這是那些 31:41 認為通貨膨脹失控了 31:46 嗯，只會變得更糟，所以我們付出了很多，嗯，我們付出了很多關注 31:53 to uh to the um 工資 uh 說到今天 31:59 週五就業，嗯，報告非常符合我不會詳細介紹 32:05 但這意味著這是一個很好的報告我們還在成長 32:11 每月大約 400 000 人的就業 32:17 我懷疑我們在這些數字中看到了一些囤積 32:23 而且我們得到了一個線索，我們可能即將結束 32:29 就業增加至少強勁的家庭就業 32:37 衡量家庭就業 它也被稱為機構就業 它下降了 32:44 353 000 而非農就業人數增加了近 400 000 32:51 嗯，我非常關注家庭的原因是因為它是領先的 32:56 總體非農就業人數的指標，還有更多的小 33:02 其中的企業我們還看到人力建議 33:08 就業正在削弱褐皮書，這是美聯儲的一份出版物，稱它在邊緣磨損 33:15 全國獨立企業反對小企業聯合會就業人數下降甚至evercore 33:22 ISIS CFA 調查顯示就業增長 33:29 即將到來 正在下降或沒有我們曾經得到的那麼快 33:34 挑戰者調查我認為這是自covid開始挑戰者呃裁員以來的第一次 33:42 調查顯示逐年增加，並且他們傾向於衡量 33:48 裁員是一種頭條裁員，他們不僅僅是亞馬遜的一次性裁員 33:55 在其季度報告中說我們過度僱用我們現在有太多員工我們看到抵押貸款 34:02 公司 呃 裁員 你昨晚看到 zillow 的報告說住房快要沸騰了 34:09 負擔能力現在是一個真正的問題 34:15 呃數據點是平均時薪，所以平均時薪 34:21 這就是我剛才提到的，嗯 34:27 是衡量工資增長的一個很好的衡量標準 現在我們知道勞動力短缺 34:34 一直處於該範圍的低收入端 34:39 他們是全面的，但休閒款待呃很難找到 34:47 在這份報告中，人們一直在抬高工資，平均時薪僅增長了 0.3%，如果你看 34:56 最後，這將是 5.5 同比下降 35:03 從 5.6% 開始，如果您查看過去三個月，您會看到三個月的變化 35:10 這個工資衡量標準的平均 uh 年化百分比變化增加了 3.6 35:18 所以我們正在從 5% 的同比下降，如果 35:24 我們繼續顯示 0.3% 或更低，我認為我們會看到一些真實的 35:31 很多人都期望工資上漲並達到合適的工資水平 35:38 工資變化率加速 好吧，現在我知道了 35:45 你被關於通貨膨脹的頭條新聞轟炸了，我們沒有忽視它們 35:51 我們是否預期供應鏈問題會像我們所看到的那樣嚴重，或者中國或俄羅斯的零覬覦政策 35:58 入侵烏克蘭絕對不是我們錯了，呃，多快 36:04 由於我們相信的那些原因，通貨膨脹絕對會消散，所以讓我們面對音樂 ppi 36:12 通脹同比上漲 11.2% 呃 cpi 上漲 8.5 36:19 個人消費平減指數上漲 5.2% 36:25 而美聯儲最關注的指標是核心PCE平減指數 36:32 核心個人消費支出平減指數，因此不包括食品和能源 36:38 他們認為這是非常不穩定的，比底層核心更不穩定 36:44 通貨膨脹是 5.2% 呃，如果你聽過的話 36:51 你可能在想的是，哎呀，投入價格上漲的速度比 36:59 產出價格 ppi 上漲速度快於 p cpi 37:04 和 pce 平減指數是什麼意思 這意味著 uh 保證金下降 37:11 對於那些沒有控制自己的公司來說，這可能是令人失望的利潤 37:16 可能通過使用更多的自動化和提高生產力來支出 37:23 再次創新解決問題這將成為一個大問題，我們 37:28 認為採用創新戰略的創新戰略 37:33 降低成本和持續的利潤是 37:39 將成為另一個口頭禪創新解決問題嗯 37:44 如果你看一下個人消費平減指數，嗯 37:51 上個月僅上漲 0.3，這意味著 37:57 連續第二個月上漲 0.3，預計下個月 38:03 將上升 0.3 所以這裡我們的年化率再次約為 3 和 1 38:08 比我們現在的水平低半個百分點 38:13 本週真正震驚市場的是生產力報告 38:20 生產力暴跌 單位勞動力成本 uh 38:25 按季度按年率計算 這不是按年計算 這是按季度按年率增長 38:32 11.6 這就是告訴你我們將看到 uh margin uh compression 38:39 現在在美國企業界，前一個季度是百分之一，所以 38:47 呃，前一個季度的單位勞動力成本似乎不是問題，生產力是 38:53 嗯，正在超越很多重量，吸收了很多工資增長 38:59 上個季度不是真的，它回到了這個想法，也許我們在囤積勞動力也許我們在囤積 39:06 勞動力，如果我們是，我有一種感覺，保證金壓縮會導致非法所得和增加 39:13 失業率 上個月的失業率是 3.6 與上個月相比沒有變化 39:19 呃，從上個月開始，呃，但我有一種感覺，呃，我們正在拼湊的謎題意味著它會上升 39:27 現在有更多的證據表明通貨膨脹已經在這裡消退了 39:35 如果您查看二手車價格，這是在呃期間的領先指標 39:40 在嗯嗯貪圖危機期間，通脹會高到什麼程度？ 39:46 很快就會增加 呃 有一點 呃 二手車價格漲了 60 39:51 百分比 uh 與他們之前夢寐以求的水平以及 um 二手車價格相比 39:57 下降 呃 三個月了 呃 他們現在上升了 14 呃 同比 40:04 但我認為在他們的頂峰年復一年的基礎上，呃，他們在 40 年代中期上升到 60 40:10 百分比數字與呃預先覆蓋的水平相比，所以我們已經降低了二手車價格 40:18 通貨膨脹率從 40 年代中期降至 14% 左右 40:23 同時原因之一是二手車銷售超過一個月 40:30 週期下降了 13 和曼海姆二手車指數伙計們 40:39 把這些放在一起的人說，這在當時是非常不尋常的，因為退稅通常 40:47 導致增加，因此下降了 13% 和 40:52 與去年同期相比，二手車銷量下降了 40:57 21輛新車銷量同比下降22輛 41:05 二手車和新車價格一度佔漲幅的三分之一 41:11 在通貨膨脹率中，現在他們正在逆轉，嗯，所以這很重要，我也嗯 41:20 想指出，油價在 3 月份達到每桶 130 美元的峰值 41:28 他們降到了 110。現在這意味著他們每個月都在顯著下降，我沒有 41:34 確切地知道調查日期呃呃那些日期的價格是多少但是 41:40 呃能源價格是通貨膨脹率過高的另一個原因 41:47 我們已經看到了，現在他們開始下降，現在你知道俄羅斯烏克蘭是否會變得更糟 41:54 嗯，如果歐洲基本上對俄羅斯說我們不是，也許我們有問題 42:00 再多吃點你的油，也許我們會再次感到震驚，但實際上我很驚訝我會預料到 42:05 考慮到這次入侵的嚴重程度，在 1 30 之後進行更多跟進 42:12 它可能沒有發生的原因之一是中國 我認為中國處於衰退 歐洲處於衰退 我們有 42:19 負 GDP 季度隨著人們開始替代，需求遭到破壞 42:25 踏板車和自行車用於汽車和摩托車，所以沒有油 42:32 至少現在還沒有延長通脹的推進劑 42:37 甚至小麥食品價格也大幅上漲，3月初似乎又見頂 42:43 小麥，嗯，它在上個月下降了 5%，所以呃，也許在這裡我們已經沸騰了 42:51 應該看到，甚至在技術領域，我們會跟踪 gpus uh 半導體 uh 42:59 並用於遊戲和加密貨幣以及那裡的二級市場 43:05 是很大的猜測，我認為從 1500 年開始出現短缺 43:11 這是為了 rtx gpu nvidias 從 1500 下來 43:18 到700。所以他們被削減了一半以上，這也很有趣 43:23 嗯，你知道鮑威爾主席說通貨膨脹可能在 43:29 遊行，所以你可以看到他這麼說的一些原因，他這麼想是件好事，嗯，因為 43:36 我們相信現在利率會上升 43:41 嗯，對經濟來說是繁重的，我不 43:47 相信在這 50 次加息之前，gdp 下降了 1.4% 43:55 僥倖，我認為它向美聯儲發送了一個真實的信息，其中一些定價也是如此 44:01 指標 好的，我們會總結一下我們已經在某種程度上已經做過的市場指標，然後回頭 44:08 創新一下，呃，所以我們已經經歷了 44:15 如果您查看年初至今的 sp 500，請儲存各種平均廣泛的平均值 44:23 嗯，能源是唯一上漲的行業，它上漲了 47，所以如果你不擁有能源，我們 44:30 嗯，我們不認為在接下來的五年裡，嗯，能源會放鬆 44:37 非常嚴重，嗯，但它上升了 47% 嗯，所以公用事業是 44:44 基本上平了一點訂書釘，也平了一點，在另一邊你有 44:50 通訊服務讓您了解一些廣受歡迎的股票 44:56 基準 呃 所以 facebook netflix amazon 45:01 嗯，com 服務，嗯，下降了 25，雖然我認為亞馬遜是消費者 45:07 自由裁量權下跌了 24 倍，而科技股普遍下跌了 20 倍，因為我 45:13 提到我們不擁有 sp 500 中的科技股，我們會這樣做嗎 45:18 如果我們這樣做會更好，但我們不認為他們是未來的領導者，嗯，我們都是關於如何 45:26 世界將發生變化，我們正在尋找那些將發生的指數增長軌跡 45:34 我在債券方面提到的方式我只是重申，如果你看一下信用違約掉期，美聯儲將獲得 45:41 像 2018 年一樣的消息當心當心 45:46 大宗商品價格，它們看起來像是處於頂部形態，也是它們出現的原因之一 45:53 是美元一直在運行嗎，自那以來已經上漲了 15% 以上 46:00 去年還很低 46:06 市場貨幣 他們做得更糟 這是兌歐元 歐元和呃 46:11 英鎊和日元，尤其是我對日元感到震驚，呃呃呃 46:17 在一年的時間裡從 105 到 130 美元 46:22 這是巨大的呃，它使我們的呃我們的商品對其他人來說更貴 46:29 世界，所以我們的出口增長可能會放緩，不僅因為許多國家處於衰退 46:37 還因為考慮到他們的貨幣，我們的價格對他們來說已經上漲了很多 46:42 下降，正如我提到的，呃，加密，一個新的資產類別不應該看起來 46:50 就像納斯達克，但它確實是高度相關的，現在你知道你知道你處於熊市中 46:57 市場，也許接近尾聲，當一切都開始表現得一樣，我們看到了 47:04 一個接一個市場的投降，我認為美聯儲將得到 47:10 給最後的留言我會留給你的最後一件事和 47:15 simon barnett 我們三位基因組革命分析師之一 47:21 下一個 youtube 會和我一起談談基因組 47:28 革命以及他們如何編制統計數據 47:34 有點像我們所做的比較我們所有策略的收入和毛利率動態 47:41 到鐵拳電信破產，他們也在為基因組學做同樣的事情 47:47 革命，他們現在看到艱難的比賽 47:52 嗯，很快就會在我們身後，我們只是我們 47:58 通過他們循環，他們看到收入增長重新加速 48:04 已經相當高的水平和利潤率擴張 48:09 我想我在這個財報季聽說過西蒙說 48:15 嗯，你知道這比我想像的要快得多 48:20 這種趨勢正在更快地發生，我會一次又一次地回到我希望的狀態 48:25 不會讓你厭煩，但創新確實解決了問題，呃，現在市場上沒有得到回報 48:32 它在私人市場上得到了回報，呃，我們已經看到了一些下跌，呃，很多 48:39 那些曾在更多沒有參與真正顛覆性創新領域的metoo公司工作 48:46 鑑於公共股票市場在創新方面的路線，我們將 48:52 可能會看到呃一些更多的融資，呃或者推出資金直到呃 49:00 在公開市場變得更加理性之前，我們不相信公開市場現在是理性的 49:07 銷售一直是不分青紅皂白的，算法和 49:12 寬客認為 uh 不屬於或不會在未來表現良好 49:18 一天或一周或一個月，這不是我們所做的我們專注於五年投資時間範圍 49:25 呃，如果你想听聽我們的消息，我會請你在下週二收聽我們的市場更新 49:32 分析師談論他們的公司和股票 49:38 我想當你聽他們的時候，當你閱讀我們的研究時，我們 49:43 免費贈送，或者如果您在推特上收聽我們的分析師 49:49 你會看到他們與深入研究領域的專家進行的各種對話 49:55 處於創新前沿的公司的腸子 50:01 你會看到這些討論有多複雜 50:07 就它們將如何改變而言，這些討論有多深刻 50:13 我們工作和生活的方式以及他們將使世界變得多麼美好 50:19 因此，鑑於當今股票市場和債券市場的慘淡， 50:24 現在越來越多的商品市場和加密貨幣呃看看我們的研究 50:30 閱讀我們的推特個人資料以獲得一些希望和樂觀，因為 50:36 我無法告訴你我們有多麼興奮和自信 50:42 呃，我們的平台將改變世界並且正在進入 50:47 指數增長軌跡現在這不是五年後我們現在 50:53 現在生活在鐵拳電信泡沫中只是夢想的現實 51:00 夢想，你有投資者，呃，進入夢想 51:05 今天是現實 他們正在為它而逃 51:11 基準 呃科技和電信泡沫中的決定以糟糕的結局告終 51:18 現在那些逃避創新的決定，我們相信這些決定也會以糟糕的方式結束 51:26 所以再次閱讀我們對希望樂觀的研究 51:32 真是令人興奮地看看未來會怎樣 51:37 非常感謝[音樂] 51:57 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