Inside Elon Musk’s secret pitch deck to investors (Ep. 596)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QD_GaXroVt8
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hey it's dave so today i just got into 0:09 the grand canyon with my family we'll be 0:11 rv camping for several days we had a 0:13 fantastic time overlooking the canyon 0:16 eating dinner and then we came back to 0:18 our campsite had a great campfire 0:20 roasting marshmallows as i was kind of 0:22 wrapping up the day looking at the news 0:24 of today i was kind of struck by this 0:26 one piece of news 0:28 that elon musk's pitch deck to investors 0:30 regarding his twitter acquisition was 0:32 obtained by the new york times and it 0:35 had some really fascinating details i 0:36 wanted to share and go over with you 0:38 guys so here's the article by the new 0:40 york times inside elon musk's big plans 0:42 for twitter and so the purpose of this 0:44 pitch deck is to recruit other investors 0:47 right in his acquisition for twitter and 0:50 it's interesting the angle that elon 0:52 gives when pitching these investors so 0:54 number one the pitch deck shows that 0:55 elon musk plans to 5x twitter's revenue 0:59 so going from five billion dollars in 1:01 revenue in 2021 to about 26.4 billion 1:04 dollars of revenue in 2028. to me this 1:07 is hugely aggressive you require a lot 1:10 of new initiatives and huge user growth 1:12 and i think that's what elon is shooting 1:14 for all right the second thing in this 1:16 pitch deck is it shows that elon wants 1:19 to reduce the reliance that twitter has 1:21 on advertising in 2028 elon wants 1:24 advertising to generate 12 billion 1:26 dollars in revenue for twitter and 1:28 subscriptions to generate nearly 10 1:30 billion dollars he wants and he expects 1:32 to see 159 1:34 a million twitter blue subscribers in 1:36 2028. he also wants advertising to fall 1:39 to about 45 percent of revenue so the 1:41 rest of the revenue would be 1:43 subscriptions here but also um other 1:45 revenue about four billion dollars worth 1:47 would come from other businesses such as 1:49 data licensing all right the number 1:51 three point in this pitch deck is that 1:52 elon musk wants to increase the average 1:54 revenue per user for twitter so he wants 1:56 to raise average revenue per user to 1:58 about 30 dollars in 2028 up from about 2:01 24. in 2021. so in my opinion the 2:05 average revenue per user is just 2:07 slightly higher 2:08 so the overall revenue is largely driven 2:10 by new and more users all right number 2:13 four this is kind of the big kicker elon 2:15 wants to grow users massively so in 2021 2:19 twitter had about 217 million users he 2:22 wants to see 600 million users in 2025 2:25 and 931 million users in 2028 so super 2:30 aggressive ambitious goals here he wants 2:31 69 million users of twitter blue by 2025 2:35 and 150 million users a twitter blue by 2:38 2028 so twitter blue is basically people 2:40 who are paying three dollars a month 2:42 right for a twitter premium number five 2:44 point here is elon has a mysterious 2:47 product so in the pitch deck it shares a 2:49 new mysterious product called x and elon 2:51 expects 104 million users of this new 2:54 product by 2028 in the first year he 2:57 expects 9 million users however in the 2:59 pitch deck there just isn't any further 3:01 details to me this is actually quite 3:03 interesting that elon is actually 3:04 thinking of not just increasing or 3:06 improving features but elon has actually 3:08 a completely new idea for a product um 3:11 and it's interesting will this be in 3:13 addition to twitter we'll be inside 3:15 twitter adjacent twitter um yeah the 3:17 details have not been shared yet all 3:19 right number six point is on hiring so 3:21 twitter today has about 7 500 employees 3:23 um elon actually expects this number to 3:26 be 8300 in 2023 and 11 000 in 2025. he 3:30 also expects stock-based compensation 3:32 costs are going to rise to about three 3:34 billion dollars in 2028 up from 914 3:38 million in 2022. so this doesn't seem 3:41 like elon musk is planning to do massive 3:43 personnel cuts at twitter it seems like 3:46 he will you know probably prune the the 3:48 people who aren't contributing a lot but 3:51 it seems like he wants to grow actually 3:52 the company and employees so this is 3:54 yeah an interesting take that i think 3:56 actually a lot of twitter employees will 3:57 actually be happy with especially those 3:59 that are contributing and actually 4:01 capable of really helping twitter reach 4:03 these new goals all right number seven 4:05 point is cash flow we know that twitter 4:07 will take out about 13 billion dollars 4:09 of debt as part of this buyout plan from 4:11 elon musk but the debt it will be paid 4:14 down with cash flow so elon expects 4:16 about 3.2 billion dollars of cash flow 4:18 in 2025 and about 9.4 billion dollars of 4:21 cash flow in 2028. all right so let's 4:23 take a step back and ask what's going on 4:25 here so overall elon's twitter pitch 4:28 deck to investors shows a really 4:29 interesting focus to expand twitter's 4:31 business he's wanting to grow the user 4:33 base massively and also scale revenue by 4:35 5x in just six years basically he's 4:38 trying to make twitter into a massive 4:39 growth company something that the 4:41 company has struggled with for many 4:43 years and elon has put some really 4:45 concrete numbers down for his six-year 4:47 plan he's got specific targets he wants 4:49 to reach for revenue users cash flow 4:52 number of employees and more i think 4:54 it's really smart he could have told 4:56 investors hey trust me i know what i'm 4:58 doing you don't need any numbers for me 4:59 but elon knows the language that 5:01 investors speak and he knows that 5:02 investors want their money back and more 5:05 and he's crafted a pitch that actually 5:07 is very persuasive now not everyone is 5:09 going to believe elon can reach these 5:11 goals and that's okay he doesn't need 5:13 every investor in the world out there to 5:15 invest in twitter rather he just needs a 5:17 certain tiny percent of investors to 5:20 believe that he has aggressive growth 5:22 plans for twitter and that he's got a 5:24 good shot at reaching those goals i 5:26 think this is one of elon musk's 5:27 defining traits namely that he has an 5:29 uncanny knack for combining business 5:31 with bigger goals and he sees business 5:33 cash flow and profit as a means and an 5:36 essential one to reach super ambitious 5:38 humanity level goals so if elon has his 5:41 way and it works out according to his 5:43 plan which of course there's risks that 5:45 it won't but if it does then twitter 5:47 would become one of the most dominant 5:48 social networks out there and twitter 5:50 could potentially be a huge force 5:53 champion free speech and democracy at 5:54 least that's the plan and i think it's a 5:57 worthy one to go for anyways hope this 5:59 has been helpful if that's good like and 6:00 subscribe all my videos can be found as 6:02 an audio podcast as well just search for 6:04 dave lee on investing in your favorite 6:05 podcast player i'm also on twitter at 6:08 heyday7 alright we'll see you guys my 6:09 next video thanks 6:11 here we are we're scootering to the 6:12 grand canyon village what is that behind 6:15 us 6:19 do you see it in the video kid 6:23 that guy right there yep yeah |
0:05 [音樂] 0:07 嘿，這是戴夫，所以今天我剛剛進入 0:09 我們會和家人一起去大峽谷 0:11 房車露營了幾天，我們有一個 0:13 俯瞰峽谷的美妙時光 0:16 吃晚飯然後我們回到 0:18 我們的營地有一個很棒的篝火 0:20 像我一樣烤棉花糖 0:22 結束一天看新聞 0:24 今天我有點被這個震驚了 0:26 一條新聞 0:28 伊隆馬斯克對投資者的推銷平台 0:30 關於他的 Twitter 收購是 0:32 紐約時報和它獲得 0:35 我有一些非常迷人的細節 0:36 想和你分享一下 0:38 伙計們，這是新的文章 0:40 伊隆馬斯克大計劃中的紐約時報 0:42 對於推特等 0:44 推銷甲板是招募其他投資者 0:47 就在他收購 Twitter 和 0:50 有趣的是，埃隆的角度 0:52 在推銷這些投資者時給予 0:54 第一，音高甲板表明 0:55 伊隆馬斯克計劃將推特收入提高 5 倍 0:59 所以從 50 億美元 1:01 2021年收入約264億 1:04 2028 年的收入。對我來說這是 1:07 非常具有侵略性，您需要很多 1:10 新舉措和巨大的用戶增長 1:12 我認為這就是埃隆正在拍攝的 1:14 好吧，第二件事 1:16 音高甲板是否表明伊隆想要 1:19 減少推特的依賴 1:21 關於 2028 年埃隆想要的廣告 1:24 廣告產生120億 1:26 推特的收入和 1:28 訂閱產生近 10 1:30 十億美元他想要並且他期望 1:32 看到 159 1:34 一百萬 twitter blue 訂閱者 1:36 2028.他也想廣告落 1:39 約 45% 的收入，因此 1:41 其餘的收入將是 1:43 在這裡訂閱，還有其他 1:45 收入約 40 億美元 1:47 將來自其他業務，例如 1:49 數據許可可以編號 1:51 這個音高甲板的三點是 1:52 伊隆馬斯克想要提高平均水平 1:54 推特每位用戶的收入，所以他想要 1:56 將每位用戶的平均收入提高到 1:58 2028 年大約 30 美元，從大約 2:01 24. 在 2021 年。所以在我看來 2:05 每個用戶的平均收入只是 2:07 較高一些 2:08 所以整體收入很大程度上是受驅動的 2:10 by 新用戶和更多用戶好吧號碼 2:13 四這是一種大踢球者埃隆 2:15 希望在 2021 年大規模增加用戶 2:19 推特有大約 2.17 億用戶，他 2:22 希望在 2025 年看到 6 億用戶 2:25 2028 年有 9.31 億用戶，超級棒 2:30 他想要的雄心勃勃的目標 2:31 到 2025 年 6900 萬 twitter blue 用戶 2:35 和 1.5 億用戶 twitter blue 2:38 2028所以twitter藍色基本上是人 2:40 誰每月支付三美元 2:42 適合推特溢價五號 2:44 這裡的重點是 elon 有一個神秘的 2:47 產品因此在音高甲板上它共享一個 2:49 名為 x 和 elon 的新神秘產品 2:51 預計這一新的用戶將達到 1.04 億 2:54 到 2028 年的第一年他的產品 2:57 預計將有 900 萬用戶 2:59 沒有任何進一步的音高甲板 3:01 對我來說，這實際上是相當詳細的 3:03 有趣的是，埃隆實際上是 3:04 考慮不只是增加或 3:06 改進功能，但 elon 實際上有 3:08 一個全新的產品想法 3:11 有趣的是這會出現在 3:13 除了推特，我們還會在裡面 3:15 twitter 相鄰的 twitter 嗯是的 3:17 詳細信息尚未共享 3:19 正確的第六點是招聘，所以 3:21 推特今天有大約 7 500 名員工 3:23 嗯，埃隆實際上希望這個數字 3:26 2023 年達到 8300 人，2025 年達到 11 000 人。他 3:30 還期望基於股票的薪酬 3:32 成本將上升到大約三 3:34 2028 年 914 億美元 3:38 2022 年百萬。所以這似乎不是 3:41 就像伊隆馬斯克計劃做大規模的 3:43 推特上的人事削減似乎 3:46 你會知道他可能會修剪 3:48 貢獻不多的人，但 3:51 看起來他實際上想要成長 3:52 公司和員工，所以這是 3:54 是的，我認為這是一個有趣的觀點 3:56 實際上很多推特員工會 3:57 實際上很高興，尤其是那些 3:59 有貢獻的，實際上 4:01 能夠真正幫助推特達到 4:03 這些新目標很好，第七 4:05 關鍵是現金流 我們知道 twitter 4:07 將拿出約130億美元 4:09 作為該收購計劃的一部分的債務 4:11 伊隆馬斯克，但它會償還的債務 4:14 現金流下降，所以埃隆預計 4:16 約32億美元的現金流 4:18 到 2025 年，大約 94 億美元 4:21 2028 年的現金流。好吧，讓我們 4:23 退後一步，問發生了什麼事 4:25 總體來說，伊隆的推特推銷 4:28 向投資者展示了一個真正的 4:29 擴展推特的有趣焦點 4:31 他想要增加用戶的業務 4:33 基數大，收入也增加了 4:35 在短短六年內 5 倍基本上他是 4:38 試圖把推特變成一個龐大的 4:39 成長型公司 4:41 公司已經掙扎了很多 4:43 年和埃隆真的放了一些 4:45 他六年的具體數字下降 4:47 計劃他有他想要的具體目標 4:49 達到收入用戶現金流 4:52 我認為員工人數和更多 4:54 他本可以告訴他真的很聰明 4:56 投資者，嘿，相信我，我知道我是什麼 4:58 你對我來說不需要任何數字 4:59 但埃隆知道那種語言 5:01 投資者說話，他知道 5:02 投資者希望收回他們的錢等等 5:05 他精心設計了一個實際上 5:07 很有說服力，現在不是每個人都是 5:09 相信伊隆能達到這些 5:11 目標，沒關係，他不需要 5:13 世界上的每一位投資者 5:15 投資推特而不是他只需要一個 5:17 一小部分投資者 5:20 相信他有積極的成長 5:22 推特的計劃，他有一個 5:24 實現這些目標的好機會我 5:26 認為這是伊隆馬斯克的作品之一 5:27 定義特徵，即他有一個 5:29 合併業務的不可思議的訣竅 5:31 有更大的目標，他看到了生意 5:33 現金流和利潤作為一種手段和一種手段 5:36 實現超級雄心壯志的必要條件 5:38 人類水平的目標，所以如果埃隆有他的 5:41 方式，它根據他的工作 5:43 計劃當然有風險 5:45 它不會，但如果確實如此，那麼推特 5:47 將成為最具統治力的國家之一 5:48 社交網絡和推特 5:50 可能是一股巨大的力量 5:53 擁護言論自由和民主 5:54 至少這是計劃，我認為這是一個 5:57 無論如何都值得一去，希望這個 5:59 如果這很好的話會很有幫助 6:00 訂閱我所有的視頻可以找到 6:02 一個音頻播客也只是搜索 6:04 戴夫李投資你最喜歡的 6:05 播客播放器我也在推特上 6:08 heyday7 好吧，我們會再見的，我的 6:09 下個視頻謝謝 6:11 我們在這裡，我們正在騎車前往 6:12 大峽谷村後面是什麼 6:15 我們 6:19 你在視頻中看到了嗎孩子 6:23 那個人在那兒是的 |
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