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Social unrest could emerge in Southeast Asia if food inflation surges PUBLISHED MON, MAY 9 20224:39 AM EDTUPDATED 5 HOURS AGO SHAREShare Article via FacebookShare Article via TwitterShare Article via LinkedInShare Article via Email KEY POINTS · Southeast Asia will face a “big risk” of social unrest if there are “big surges” in food prices, an ASEAN economist at Bank of America Securities told CNBC. · That’s because, relative to other countries, food consumption accounts for a large proportion of what people spend on in countries like the Philippines, Indonesia, and Vietnam, said Mohamed Faiz Nagutha. Southeast Asia will face a "big risk" of social unrest if there are "big surges" in food prices, an ASEAN economist at Bank of America Securities told CNBC. That's because, relative to other countries, food consumption accounts for a large proportion of what people spend on in countries like the Philippines, Indonesia and Vietnam, said Mohamed Faiz Nagutha on Friday. In 2021, Filipino households spent nearly 40% of their total expenditure on food and non-alcoholic beverages, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority. In comparison, U.S. households spent 8.6% of their disposable income on food, the Economic Research Service reported. "Having said this, ASEAN food inflation in particular has been a little bit less volatile (and) more contained than in the past because we depend a lot on intra-regional trade and there is a lot of government support in place to keep food inflation contained," Nagutha told CNBC's "Street Signs Asia." Nonetheless, he warned that prices will eventually have to increase, though the governments are hoping the increment will be gradual. "It's usually the big shock jump that causes a lot of unhappiness on the street," he said. Inflation outlook Inflation in Southeast Asia has been rising but remains low from a historical perspective, Nagutha said, though he noted the situation will change over the coming months and quarters. Regional inflation rose from 3% in February to 3.5% in March, according to FocusEconomics, an information services firm. With economies reopening and people consuming more services, demand will contribute to a rise in inflation, he said. However, this will add on to cost pressures that businesses are sitting on, and they will be looking to pass on some of these costs to consumers, he added. That, combined with energy and food inflation globally, will push overall inflation in Southeast Asia even higher, he said. However, the longer-term outlook for inflation remains uncertain because it's still unknown what prices oil and other commodities will stabilize at, Nagutha added. "In our baseline, we assume they stay high," he said, which will keep global inflation elevated. However, a recession is not in baseline expectations, he added. "And for ASEAN, that means that inflation may come off from the peak, but it will still remain high relative to the historical context, and should remain high relative to where central banks want to see them," he said. Central bank reactions With the exception of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, most Southeast Asian central banks have not reacted, Nagutha said. Given how far Southeast Asia has come in its Covid recovery, central banks there should be getting ready to look beyond supporting growth and looking at inflation, he added. "It's about anchoring inflation expectations and sending a signal that the policy rates that we have in ASEAN no longer are warranted given where we in the global inflation cycle," he said. underperformance is coming to an end That said, Southeast Asian central banks are slowly coming around to the tightening bias, he said, starting with a possible rate hike from the Malaysian central bank next week. "And for other ASEAN central banks, we see rate hikes from the second half of the year," Nagutha said. "One exception is Thailand because it has been a big laggard in terms of the growth of recovery — so we do think that they can afford to stay on hold for a bit longer," he added. However, Euben Paracuelles of Nomura, a financial services firm, said the Philippine central bank is also unlikely to be hiking rates this month, although it may do so in June if it sees signs of core inflation picking up. "There is no real reason to raise rates because higher interest rates did not solve higher fuel prices or higher food prices," Paracuelles told CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia." “Inflation is high in the headline basis, but if you take out energy and food, core (inflation) is much lower,” he added.
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如果食品通脹飆升，東南亞可能會出現社會動盪 2022 年 5 月 9 日星期一發布美國東部時間凌晨 4:395 小時前更新 分享通過 Facebook 分享文章通過 Twitter 分享文章通過 LinkedIn 分享文章通過電子郵件分享文章 關鍵點 · 美國銀行證券的東盟經濟學家告訴 CNBC，如果食品價格“大幅上漲”，東南亞將面臨社會動蕩的“巨大風險”。 · 這是因為，相對於其他國家，食品消費佔菲律賓、印度尼西亞和越南等國家人們消費的很大一部分，Mohamed Faiz Nagutha 說。 美國銀行證券的東盟經濟學家告訴 CNBC，如果食品價格“大幅上漲”，東南亞將面臨社會動蕩的“巨大風險”。 這是因為，相對於其他國家，食品消費佔菲律賓、印度尼西亞和越南等國人們消費的很大一部分，Mohamed Faiz Nagutha 週五表示。 根據菲律賓統計局的數據，2021 年，菲律賓家庭將近 40% 的總支出用於食品和非酒精飲料。 相比之下，美國家庭將其可支配收入的 8.6%用於食品，經濟研究局報告。 “話雖如此，尤其是東盟食品通脹的波動性（和）比過去更受控制，因為我們在很大程度上依賴區域內貿易，並且有很多政府支持來保持食品通脹包含，”Nagutha 告訴 CNBC 的“Street Signs Asia”。 儘管如此，他警告說，價格最終將不得不上漲，儘管政府希望漲幅是漸進的。 他說：“這通常是在大街上引起很多不愉快的巨大衝擊跳躍。” 通脹前景 Nagutha 表示，東南亞的通貨膨脹率一直在上升，但從歷史角度來看仍然很低，儘管他指出情況將在未來幾個月和幾個季度發生變化。 根據信息服務公司 FocusEconomics 的數據，區域通貨膨脹率從 2 月份的 3% 上升到 3 月份的 3.5% 。 他說，隨著經濟重新開放和人們消費更多服務，需求將導致通脹上升。然而，這將增加企業所面臨的成本壓力，他們將尋求將其中一些成本轉嫁給消費者，他補充道。 他說，再加上全球能源和食品通脹，將推高東南亞的整體通脹。 不過，Nagutha 補充說，通脹的長期前景仍然不確定，因為石油和其他大宗商品的價格將穩定在什麼水平仍是未知數。 “在我們的基線中，我們假設它們保持在高位，”他說，這將使全球通脹保持在高位。然而，他補充說，衰退不在基線預期之內。 “對於東盟而言，這意味著通脹可能會從峰值回落，但相對於歷史背景，它仍將保持在高位，並且相對於各國央行希望看到的情況而言，它應該保持在高位，”他說。 央行反應 Nagutha 說，除了新加坡金融管理局，大多數東南亞央行都沒有做出反應。 他補充說，鑑於東南亞在 Covid 復甦方面取得了多大進展，那裡的央行應該準備好超越支持增長和關注通脹。 “這是為了錨定通脹預期，並發出一個信號，即鑑於我們在全球通脹週期中所處的位置，我們在東盟的政策利率不再是合理的，”他說。 他說，儘管如此，東南亞央行正在慢慢轉向緊縮傾向，首先是馬來西亞央行下周可能加息。 “對於其他東盟央行，我們看到從下半年開始加息，”Nagutha 說。 “一個例外是泰國，因為它在復蘇增長方面一直落後 - 所以我們確實認為他們可以承受更長的時間，”他補充道。 然而，金融服務公司野村證券的 Euben Paracuelles 表示，菲律賓央行本月也不太可能加息，儘管如果看到核心通脹上升的跡象，它可能會在 6 月加息。 “沒有真正的理由加息，因為更高的利率並沒有解決更高的燃料價格或更高的食品價格，”Paracuelles 告訴 CNBC 的“ Squawk Box Asia ”。 “總體通脹率很高，但如果剔除能源和食品，核心（通脹率）要低得多，”他補充道。
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