https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=olqMEJuJbzg
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0:05 [Music] 0:07 hey it's dave so we have a new elon musk 0:10 interview by the financial times 0:11 released just today i'll link to it in 0:14 the video description below i want to go 0:16 ahead and share some highlights from 0:18 this interview i think there are some 0:19 great comments and insights from elon 0:21 and i'll share my reactions and thoughts 0:23 as well um i'm confident that we will be 0:26 able to sell all the car we can make 0:28 so here elon musk is asked if his 0:30 involvement in twitter will upset people 0:32 and does have a commercial impact will 0:34 hurt tesla sales and elon musk replies 0:37 hey they've got a major problem right 0:39 now it's not 0:40 a lack of sales rather it's actually too 0:42 many people or so many people want to 0:44 buy a tesla so he doesn't anticipate any 0:46 problems actually with tesla sales we're 0:49 actually probably going to 0:50 limit 0:52 or just just stop taking orders for for 0:54 anything beyond a certain period of time 0:57 because 0:58 you know some of the 1:00 timing is like a year away 1:02 so so elon is sharing that now they're 1:04 considering to stop taking orders if the 1:07 wait time exceeds a certain amount let's 1:09 say over a year or so this is just 1:11 because you know they don't want people 1:12 waiting too long for their cars there 1:15 are some raw material constraints that 1:17 we see coming um 1:19 here elon musk is asked what are the 1:21 major challenges to scale to 20 million 1:23 vehicles a year by 2030 and elon 1:25 responds that yeah maybe in three years 1:27 or so there could be some raw material 1:28 challenges with lithium mining also with 1:31 cathode materials and it's actually 1:32 great to see elon and his team 1:34 look and plan ahead even five to ten 1:36 years out the road they know the exact 1:38 kind of demand and production numbers 1:40 that they aspire to right they're 1:41 looking to grow at least 50 per year 1:43 they know what are the major hiccups 1:45 what are the major major roadblocks and 1:47 limiting factors and they can plan and 1:49 intentionally try to overcome them and 1:51 actually start 1:52 the process even right now it's really 1:54 the the equipment 1:56 i think this is the single brick 1:57 constraint would be the equipment 1:58 necessary to convert the ore into 2:01 battery grade materials 2:02 and we're working on that with suppliers 2:04 so i'm not saying that this is an 2:06 impossible thing to address it is simply 2:08 uh one of the problems along the way to 2:11 getting 20 million vehicles so elon 2:12 expounds on actually the specific 2:14 problems of raw materials it's basically 2:16 the equipment that's required to 2:18 actually mine and process these 2:20 materials the equipment is not scaling 2:22 or if tesla doesn't get involved in the 2:25 supply chain it's not going to scale 2:26 fast enough so that's why tesla is 2:28 stepping in they're working with 2:30 suppliers right now to make sure in 2:32 three to five years that everything all 2:33 the equipment is ready and is actually 2:35 deployed to mine and to process all of 2:37 the raw materials they need right for 2:39 their ambitious growth plans 2:41 there are no arbitrary limitations on 2:44 uh 2:45 what's needed to accelerate sustainable 2:47 energy we'll just tackle whatever set of 2:49 things are needed to accelerate 2:51 sustainable energy and 2:54 doing mining and refining or buying a 2:56 mining company provided we think we can 2:58 do 2:59 we can change that mining company's 3:01 trajectory significantly are 3:04 possibilities yeah so i really like elon 3:07 musk's attitude here he's basically 3:09 saying there are going to be no limits 3:10 no restraints we're going to do whatever 3:12 it takes to transition the world to 3:14 sustainable energy so if mining or 3:16 processing raw materials is the major 3:19 bottleneck then tesla will do whatever 3:21 it takes to fix that problem even if it 3:23 means right acquiring certain mining 3:24 companies do you think you're likely to 3:26 stay at tesla as long as that can be 3:28 useful so elon is asked how long does he 3:30 intend to stay a tesla elon responds as 3:32 long as he can be useful i think this is 3:35 a great answer and i think all tesla 3:36 shareholders should be actually pretty 3:37 happy about this the default plan 3:39 actually i think is for elon to stay 3:41 with tesla um for the indefinite feature 3:43 i think also especially with tesla's 3:45 real world ai plans elon sees a super 3:47 long runway of innovation and lots of 3:50 things that he could actually help with 3:52 we can easily whip out a prototype of 3:54 any kind of car you could possibly 3:55 imagine with a small team in six months 3:58 now 3:59 we have a team of 100 people in six 4:01 months now to bring that to fruition 4:03 with high volume production is 10 000 4:06 people 4:07 in two years and that's three times 4:09 faster than the rest of industry here 4:11 elon is detailing a bit more of his 4:13 thoughts on prototyping versus 4:14 production he says with the team of 100 4:16 people in six months he can whip out any 4:18 prototype he wants but in order to scale 4:20 right to production or actually full 4:22 production they're gonna have to have 4:23 ten thousand people over two years to do 4:25 that it's a massive difference 4:27 so 4:28 so we're just going to take the heat 4:31 but if we believe that uh that that the 4:34 quality of 4:36 injury is reduced and we have very are 4:39 very confident of that uh and and but we 4:42 also know that we're going to be sued 4:43 despite doing the right thing we will do 4:45 the right thing and get stewed elon is 4:47 asked about fsd and liability and elon 4:50 shares that they're going to do the 4:51 right thing no matter what even if a lot 4:53 of people sue them if they get a lot of 4:54 lawsuits regarding fsd i think this 4:56 really separates tesla from the rest 4:59 elon is willing to push the envelope to 5:01 push fsd as fast as possible because he 5:03 really believes in saving lives while 5:05 other companies are going to approach 5:06 this a lot more cautiously and being 5:08 probably a lot more risk averse well 5:10 tesla is 5:11 i think as much a software company as it 5:14 is a hardware company 5:15 i think that's why tesla's been able to 5:17 recruit uh some of the world's best 5:20 software engineers uh is because we we 5:23 value software engineering so highly 5:25 and do not regard it as as an 5:27 afterthought elon dives into the 5:29 software advantage of tesla a lot of 5:31 people call tesla a car company but i 5:33 think they completely overlook how much 5:35 software expertise tesla has acquired 5:38 over the years we have an incredible 5:39 team we have the best real world ai team 5:41 in the world the the best real world ai 5:43 team that on earth 5:45 and um 5:47 and we're seeing more and more uh 5:50 incredibly talented people join our team 5:52 tesla has the best real world ai team 5:54 out there and they're attracting some of 5:56 the best artificial intelligence 5:58 specialists and experts out there in the 5:59 world and this is really important 6:01 because in artificial intelligence you 6:03 just can't compete with subpar talent 6:05 the talent really makes a big difference 6:06 and tesla is showing that they're really 6:08 hitting their group by really being kind 6:09 of this attractive landing spot for some 6:11 of the best talent in the world and 6:13 we're really not seeing anyone else 6:16 being close to solving real world ai and 6:19 we just don't see 6:21 anyone else um that we're aware of 6:24 making any significant progress in real 6:26 world world ai apart from tesla do i am 6:29 quite confident that we'll not really 6:30 maintain our software lead but 6:33 increase it wow this is a really bullish 6:35 assessment by elon musk he's basically 6:37 saying that tesla is the only player or 6:39 the only real substantial player really 6:41 making big progress with real world ai 6:44 so what does this mean this means that 6:46 yeah tesla has really cornered the 6:47 market and i think a lot of it deals 6:48 with data um other companies just 6:51 haven't made the big investments that 6:52 tesla's made by outfitting every single 6:54 car right with autopilot hardware that 6:57 can actually run their neural nets and 6:59 collect the data that they need i think 7:01 tesla in some ways is not just in the 7:03 poll position but as elon is saying is 7:05 their lead is growing and so he's 7:07 confident that actually tesla's software 7:09 advantage will actually grow in the 7:10 future and not become smaller 7:13 the sort of separate objectives with 7:16 different shareholders 7:18 and 7:18 i think 7:21 you know i don't see a ton of merit in 7:23 combining them elon is asked if he's 7:25 ever going to merge his companies like 7:26 spacex tesla neurolink boarding company 7:29 and elon puts the rumors to us he 7:31 basically says it's not going to happen 7:32 the shareholder bases are just too 7:34 different right they're wanting 7:35 different things and this is what i've 7:36 experienced talking to some major 7:37 shareholders there just is no interest 7:40 or actually opposition uh to combining 7:42 spacex and tesla into the same company i 7:44 think the future of tesla is extremely 7:46 strong 7:48 so tesla's is has no debt it has a lot 7:52 of cash 7:56 and you know there's there's a sort of a 7:59 short-term um hiccup with the covered 8:02 restrictions in in shanghai 8:04 uh but i i 8:06 as for to the best of my knowledge the 8:08 future of tesla is incredibly bright 8:10 um and i think we will 8:13 throw off 8:14 a tremendous amount of free cash flow 8:16 elon musk gives a bold case for tesla he 8:18 says the future is super bright 8:20 regarding their balance sheet right they 8:21 have basically almost no debt and they 8:23 have a lot of cash on hand he does give 8:26 some risks short term though he says in 8:27 shanghai there's this hiccup right we 8:29 know that shanghai was shut down most of 8:31 april they're actually going through 8:33 some difficulty ramping up as well with 8:35 different suppliers the rumor says so 8:37 yeah it could be a challenging quarter 8:39 for q2 regarding shanghai production 8:41 deliveries but in the long run right 8:43 elon is saying that tesla's going to 8:45 just print massive amounts of cash flow 8:47 and that is kind of the big long-term 8:49 story of tesla i think is that tesla as 8:51 they grow their revenue and they 8:53 increase their gross margins and 8:54 operating margins they're just going to 8:56 be left with a ton of operating profit 8:58 and cash flows all of that operating 9:00 profit and cash flow sure it would be 9:02 great if they could put that back into 9:04 the business but they don't really need 9:05 to because they're so capital efficient 9:07 they only need to spend like a few 9:09 billion dollars per quarter um 9:11 reinvesting into their factories into 9:12 new factories etc and they're gonna have 9:14 a lot of cash left over there's likely 9:16 gonna be a point sometime in the future 9:18 where tesla is printing just so much 9:20 cash right they're just going to 9:21 accumulate who knows what they're going 9:22 to do with it but under elon's 9:24 management though i'm very confident 9:25 that elon will find a way right to use 9:28 this cash he's not um one to shy away 9:31 from big opportunities another bullish 9:32 thing and another reason why i'm 9:34 actually often missing hopefully if elon 9:36 remains ceo of tesla yeah tesla can 9:39 continue to grow and surprise a lot of 9:42 people i hope this has been helpful if 9:43 has goes like and subscribe all my 9:45 videos can be found as an audio podcast 9:47 as well just search for dave lee on 9:48 investing and i'm also on twitter at 9:50 heyday7 alright we'll see you guys my 9:52 next video thanks
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0:05 [音樂] 0:07 嘿，我是戴夫，所以我們有一個新的伊隆 0:10 金融時報採訪 0:11 今天剛剛發布，我會鏈接到它 0:14 下面的視頻說明我想去 0:16 提前分享一些亮點 0:18 這次採訪我認為有一些 0:19 來自 Elon 的精彩評論和見解 0:21 我會分享我的反應和想法 0:23 嗯，我相信我們會 0:26 能夠賣掉我們能做的所有車 0:28 所以這裡問埃隆馬斯克他的 0:30 參與推特會讓人們感到不安 0:32 並且確實會產生商業影響 0:34 傷害特斯拉銷售和伊隆馬斯克的回复 0:37 嘿，他們有一個大問題，對吧 0:39 現在不是 0:40 缺乏銷售，實際上也是 0:42 很多人或很多人想要 0:44 買一輛特斯拉，這樣他就不會期待任何 0:46 特斯拉銷售問題實際上是我們 0:49 實際上可能會 0:50 限制 0:52 或者只是停止接受訂單 0:54 超過一定時間的任何事情 0:57 因為 0:58 你知道一些 1:00 時間就像一年之後 1:02 所以埃隆正在分享，現在他們是 1:04 考慮停止接受訂單，如果 1:07 等待時間超過一定數量讓我們 1:09 說一年多，這只是 1:11 因為你知道他們不想要人 1:12 在那裡等他們的車太久 1:15 是一些原材料限制， 1:17 我們看到了 1:19 這裡問埃隆馬斯克是什麼 1:21 將規模擴大到 2000 萬的重大挑戰 1:23 到 2030 年和 elon 每年的車輛 1:25 回應說是的，也許在三年內 1:27 或者可能有一些原材料 1:28 鋰開采的挑戰也與 1:31 陰極材料，它實際上是 1:32 很高興見到伊隆和他的團隊 1:34 展望和計劃甚至五到十 1:36 多年以後他們知道確切的 1:38 需求種類和生產數量 1:40 他們渴望正確 他們是 1:41 希望每年增長至少 50 1:43 他們知道主要的問題是什麼 1:45 主要的主要障礙是什麼？ 1:47 限制因素，他們可以計劃和 1:49 有意識地嘗試克服它們並 1:51 實際開始 1:52 現在的過程真的 1:54 設備 1:56 我認為這是單塊磚 1:57 約束將是設備 1:58 需要將礦石轉化為 2:01 電池級材料 2:02 我們正在與供應商合作 2:04 所以我不是說這是一個 2:06 不可能解決的事情就是 2:08 呃 一路上的問題之一 2:11 獲得 2000 萬輛汽車所以 elon 2:12 具體闡述 2:14 原材料問題基本上是 2:16 所需的設備 2:18 實際上挖掘和處理這些 2:20 設備不縮放的材料 2:22 或者如果特斯拉不參與 2:25 供應鏈不會擴大 2:26 足夠快，這就是特斯拉的原因 2:28 介入他們正在合作 2:30 供應商現在確保 2:32 三到五年，一切都 2:33 設備已準備就緒，實際上是 2:35 部署到礦山和處理所有 2:37 他們需要的原材料 2:39 他們雄心勃勃的增長計劃 2:41 沒有任意限制 2:44 呃 2:45 加速可持續發展需要什麼 2:47 能量，我們將解決任何一組 2:49 需要加速 2:51 可持續能源和 2:54 進行採礦和提煉或購買 2:56 礦業公司，只要我們認為我們可以 2:58 做 2:59 我們可以改變那家礦業公司的 3:01 軌跡顯著是 3:04 可能性是的，所以我真的很喜歡埃隆 3:07 馬斯克在這裡的態度他基本上是 3:09 說沒有限制 3:10 沒有限制，我們將做任何事情 3:12 需要將世界轉變為 3:14 可持續能源，因此如果採礦或 3:16 加工原料是主要 3:19 瓶頸然後特斯拉會做任何事情 3:21 即使它需要解決這個問題 3:23 是指獲得一定的採礦權 3:24 您認為您可能會的公司 3:26 只要可以，就留在特斯拉 3:28 有用，所以問伊隆他多久 3:30 打算留下特斯拉埃隆回應為 3:32 只要他有用，我認為這是 3:35 一個很好的答案，我認為所有的特斯拉 3:36 股東其實應該很漂亮 3:37 對此默認計劃感到高興 3:39 實際上我認為是讓埃隆留下來 3:41 與特斯拉 um 的無限特徵 3:43 我也認為尤其是特斯拉的 3:45 現實世界的人工智能計劃埃隆看到了一個超級 3:47 漫長的創新之路和許多 3:50 他實際上可以幫助的事情 3:52 我們可以很容易地做出一個原型 3:54 任何類型的汽車，你可能 3:55 想像在六個月內組建一個小團隊 3:58 現在 3:59 我們有一個由六人組成的 100 人團隊 4:01 現在幾個月來實現這一目標 4:03 大批量生產是 10 000 4:06 人們 4:07 在兩年內，那是三倍 4:09 比這裡的其他行業更快 4:11 埃隆正在詳細介紹他的 4:13 關於原型設計的想法 4:14 他說與 100 人的團隊一起製作 4:16 人們在六個月內他可以抽出任何 4:18 他想要的原型，但為了擴大規模 4:20 生產權或實際完整權 4:22 他們必須擁有的生產 4:23 萬人兩年多做 4:25 這是一個巨大的差異 4:27 所以 4:28 所以我們只是去取暖 4:31 但如果我們相信 4:34 的質量 4:36 傷害減少了，我們有很多 4:39 非常有信心，嗯，但是我們 4:42 也知道我們會被起訴 4:43 儘管做了正確的事，我們還是會做 4:45 正確的做法是燉伊隆 4:47 詢問 fsd 和責任和 elon 4:50 分享他們將要做的事情 4:51 正確的事情無論如何即使很多 4:53 的人起訴他們，如果他們得到很多 4:54 關於 fsd 的訴訟我認為這是 4:56 真正將特斯拉與其他車型區分開來 4:59 伊隆願意挑戰極限 5:01 盡可能快地推動 fsd，因為他 5:03 真的相信在拯救生命的同時 5:05 其他公司將接近 5:06 這要謹慎得多 5:08 可能有更多的風險規避能力 5:10 特斯拉是 5:11 我認為和它一樣是一家軟件公司 5:14 是一家硬件公司 5:15 我認為這就是為什麼特斯拉能夠 5:17 招募一些世界上最優秀的人 5:20 軟件工程師呃是因為我們我們 5:23 高度重視軟件工程 5:25 並且不要將其視為 5:27 事後埃隆潛入 5:29 特斯拉的軟件優勢很多 5:31 人們稱特斯拉為汽車公司，但我 5:33 認為他們完全忽略了多少 5:35 特斯拉獲得的軟件專業知識 5:38 多年來，我們擁有令人難以置信的 5:39 團隊我們擁有最好的現實世界人工智能團隊 5:41 在世界上最好的現實世界 ai 5:43 地球上的團隊 5:45 和嗯 5:47 我們看到越來越多 5:50 非常有才華的人加入我們的團隊 5:52 特斯拉擁有最好的現實世界人工智能團隊 5:54 在那裡，他們吸引了一些 5:56 最好的人工智能 5:58 專家和專家在那裡 5:59 世界，這真的很重要 6:01 因為在人工智能中你 6:03 只是無法與低於標準的人才競爭 6:05 天賦真的很重要 6:06 特斯拉表明他們真的 6:08 真正友善地打擊他們的團隊 6:09 對於一些人來說，這個有吸引力的著陸點 6:11 世界上最優秀的人才和 6:13 我們真的沒有看到其他人 6:16 接近解決現實世界的人工智能和 6:19 我們只是看不到 6:21 我們知道的其他任何人 6:24 在實際取得任何重大進展 6:26 world world ai 除了特斯拉，我是誰 6:29 非常有信心我們不會真的 6:30 保持我們的軟件領先地位，但 6:33 增加它哇，這真是看漲 6:35 埃隆馬斯克的評估他基本上是 6:37 說特斯拉是唯一的玩家或 6:39 唯一真正重要的球員 6:41 在現實世界中取得重大進展 6:44 所以這是什麼意思 這意味著 6:46 是的，特斯拉真的走投無路了 6:47 市場，我認為很多交易 6:48 與數據 um 其他公司只是 6:51 沒有進行大筆投資 6:52 特斯拉是通過裝備每一個 6:54 帶有自動駕駛儀硬件的汽車 6:57 實際上可以運行他們的神經網絡並且 6:59 收集我認為他們需要的數據 7:01 特斯拉在某些方面不僅僅是在 7:03 民意調查位置，但正如埃隆所說 7:05 他們的領先優勢越來越大，所以他 7:07 相信實際上特斯拉的軟件 7:09 優勢實際上會增長 7:10 未來而不是變小 7:13 那種單獨的目標 7:16 不同的股東 7:18 和 7:18 我想 7:21 你知道我沒有看到很多優點 7:23 將它們結合在一起 elon 被問到他是否 7:25 曾經會合併他的公司，比如 7:26 spacex特斯拉neurolink登機公司 7:29 埃隆把謠言告訴我們他 7:31 基本上說這不會發生 7:32 股東基礎也是 7:34 他們想要的不同的權利 7:35 不同的東西，這就是我所擁有的 7:36 有經驗與一些專業交談 7:37 股東只是沒有利益 7:40 或者實際上反對呃結合 7:42 spacex 和 tesla 進入同一家公司 7:44 覺得特斯拉的未來非常 7:46 強的 7:48 所以特斯拉沒有債務它有很多 7:52 現金 7:56 你知道有一種 7:59 短期呃呃呃覆蓋 8:02 上海的限制 8:04 呃，但是我 8:06 據我所知， 8:08 特斯拉的未來非常光明 8:10 嗯，我想我們會的 8:13 甩開 8:14 大量的自由現金流 8:16 埃隆馬斯克為特斯拉提供了一個大膽的案例 8:18 說未來超級光明 8:20 關於他們的資產負債表，他們 8:21 基本上幾乎沒有債務，他們 8:23 他手頭有很多現金 8:26 儘管他說在短期內存在一些風險 8:27 上海有這個小問題，我們 8:29 知道上海大部分時間都關閉了 8:31 四月他們實際上正在經歷 8:33 一些困難也增加了 8:35 謠言說的不同的供應商 8:37 是的，這可能是一個充滿挑戰的季度 8:39 第二季度上海生產 8:41 交付，但從長遠來看是正確的 8:43 埃隆說特斯拉要 8:45 只需打印大量現金流 8:47 這是一種長期的大 8:49 特斯拉的故事我認為是特斯拉 8:51 他們增加收入，他們 8:53 增加他們的毛利率和 8:54 他們將要達到的營業利潤率 8:56 留下大量營業利潤 8:58 和所有經營活動的現金流 9:00 利潤和現金流肯定會 9:02 如果他們能把它放回原處，那就太好了 9:04 業務，但他們並不真正需要 9:05 因為他們的資本效率很高 9:07 他們只需要花幾個 9:09 每季度十億美元 9:11 再投資到他們的工廠 9:12 新工廠等，他們會有 9:14 可能還有很多現金 9:16 將來某個時候會成為一個點 9:18 特斯拉在哪裡打印這麼多 9:20 現金他們只是去 9:21 積累誰知道他們要做什麼 9:22 與它有關，但在埃隆的 9:24 管理雖然我很自信 9:25 那個elon會找到一種正確使用的方法 9:28 這筆現金他不是一個可以迴避的人 9:31 大機會又看漲 9:32 事情和我的另一個原因 9:34 實際上，如果埃隆經常懷念 9:36 仍然是特斯拉的首席執行官，是的，特斯拉可以 9:39 繼續成長並驚喜很多 9:42 我希望這對人有所幫助 9:43 喜歡並訂閱我所有的 9:45 視頻可以作為音頻播客找到 9:47 也只需搜索 dave lee on 9:48 投資，我也在推特上 9:50 heyday7 好吧，我們會再見的，我的 9:52 下個視頻謝謝
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