https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZX8VdXT6A9o
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hey it's dave so this week i'm driving 0:10 to the grand canyon with my family in 0:12 our rv and the stock market is 0:14 experiencing some massive volatility as 0:16 well as tesla and many other stocks so 0:19 the nasdaq 0:21 actually yesterday it spiked up to 0:23 almost thirteen thousand dollars now 0:24 it's down uh down to about twelve 0:26 thousand three hundred tesla was up 0:28 above 950 and now it's back down to 0:30 about 873 0:32 almost down 80 points in a single day 0:35 the us 10-year treasury yield is up 0:38 above 3 percent so we're experiencing 0:40 massive up and downs yesterday the 0:42 markets were up big and everyone was 0:44 optimistic right there was a total 0:46 change of turn a tone but today the 0:48 markets are down big and everyone's 0:50 talking about the whole world sinking 0:51 into recession we've got a lot of 0:54 so-called experts that can give i think 0:56 an explanation for almost anything to 0:58 match what the market is doing on that 1:00 day so the general public 1:03 is left confused and they're wondering 1:05 yeah should they sell their stock before 1:07 this recession hits i think we need to 1:09 uncover what i call an assault and we've 1:12 got two things going on one number one 1:13 we've got the pundits number two we got 1:15 the stock ticker i want to kind of deal 1:17 with these one at a time so number one 1:19 dependent so financial networks are 1:22 giving people what they want to hear and 1:24 market timing opinions are mostly for 1:26 entertainment so you have a lot of 1:27 people on tv and elsewhere um giving 1:31 right their opinion on whether the 1:32 market is going to go down or up and 1:34 people are drawn to this type of 1:36 entertainment right to fast money 1:38 betting into the short term versus more 1:40 of a long-term perspective however for a 1:43 lot of the pundits and so-called experts 1:44 i want to see their 10-year track record 1:46 or at least their 10 to 20-year track 1:48 record to see if they can significantly 1:50 beat the index right with their stock 1:52 picks and their market timing i wonder 1:54 sometimes if it could all be a scam i 1:56 know scam is probably maybe too harsh of 1:59 a word but you have lots of people in 2:02 suits they're trying to impress people 2:03 and they make a lot of money off of 2:05 management fees right that's the 2:07 business model the more money right you 2:09 can manage the more fees you can 2:10 generate however most money managers are 2:13 underperforming the market over the long 2:15 term and i think this is one of the main 2:17 reasons why we see a trend to passive 2:19 low-cost index fund investing so the 2:22 average annual returns from let's say 2:24 2011 to 2020 if you compare the s p 500 2:29 index with an average hedge fund you'll 2:31 see that the s p index outperforms right 2:35 and average hedge funds almost every 2:37 year and by a significant amount look at 2:39 2020 it was 18 versus 10 for the hedge 2:42 fund in 2019 it was s p 531 2:46 to the average hedge fund of 10 2:49 now in 2007 warren buffett made a big 2:52 point and he made a 1 million dollar bet 2:54 with a hedge fund manager from protege 2:56 partners that the s p 500 would perform 2:59 better than hand-picked selection of 3:02 hedge funds over a 10-year period 3:04 and yeah his 3:06 warren buffett handily won this bet and 3:08 if you look at this the s p 500 3:11 outperformed right the hand-picked hedge 3:13 funds by a significant amount now we 3:15 have a lot of people right on media 3:17 talking about selling 3:19 with this gloomy news and the gloomy 3:21 forecasts economically i think it's 3:23 possible that some people can sell at 3:25 the right time and they can buy back in 3:26 the right time but i think generally 3:28 speaking it's very difficult often times 3:30 when the news is the gloomiest it's 3:32 actually priced in and a lot of times 3:35 the amount market can re rebound even 3:37 during a recession or even when times 3:39 are super gloomy because the markets 3:41 investors generally are looking forward 3:43 a lot of people might think hey i'll 3:44 sell during the recession or or right 3:46 before and i'll buy back after however 3:48 that kind of is too late right you've 3:50 got to sell actually before right the 3:52 general public actually gets super 3:54 gloomy and you need to buy back at the 3:56 lowest and the most gloomiest point and 3:59 this can be actually very difficult to 4:01 do for most people all right number two 4:02 i want to address the ticker i think 4:04 there is kind of another assault or kind 4:06 of pressure on individual investors to 4:09 actually sell their stock during 4:11 stressful time so there is a hyper 4:13 liquid nature of public stocks because 4:15 you can sell write your stocks your 4:17 publicly held stocks at any moment it's 4:20 kind of like someone coming to your 4:21 house every five minutes knocking at the 4:23 door asking you to sell your stock and 4:25 giving you a price for that and it 4:27 becomes torturous over time in a sense 4:30 every time you look at the stock tickers 4:32 for your portfolio it's like someone is 4:34 asking you right can i buy your stock 4:36 from you at this price and it becomes 4:38 something that over a period of time a 4:41 lot of people just sell to end the 4:43 anxiety right of the volatility and the 4:46 ups and downs of their portfolio i think 4:48 we need a strategy to lower the noise of 4:51 kind of the stock ticker i think people 4:53 generally tend to overestimate their 4:55 short-term timing abilities and i think 4:58 the first thing is yeah being realistic 4:59 with our inability or lack of ability 5:02 really to have confidence and 5:03 consistency and timing right short 5:05 short-term ups and downs also i think to 5:08 understand the ticker as mostly just 5:10 entertainment it's just something maybe 5:12 to observe but not really as an 5:14 opportunity to sell every time right you 5:16 look at it also i think it's also wise 5:19 possibly not to look at stock prices 5:21 that often if you're not able to handle 5:23 that and finally i think everybody needs 5:25 a thesis so if you're invested in index 5:28 funds let's say the s p 500 or total 5:31 market fund i think you need a general 5:32 thesis on why you're invested in that 5:34 index fund why you think that index fund 5:36 will outperform over the long term what 5:38 are your goals and strategy how long you 5:40 plan to hold like what is your exit 5:42 strategy and how does it fit into a 5:43 bigger picture if you're choosing and 5:45 betting on individual stocks i 5:47 personally think you need evaluation 5:49 projection over the next two to five 5:51 years that you make yourself sure you 5:53 could you know borrow on other people 5:54 but other people have different i guess 5:57 you know projections and their views of 5:58 the future so in addition to two to five 6:01 years i think a five to ten years also 6:04 a great idea too but we need to be 6:06 realistic a lot of times future 6:07 projections can be very wrong um and 6:10 yeah there's acknowledgement that 6:12 especially five to ten years down the 6:13 road a lot can go wrong or lock and 6:15 change further we need to understand the 6:17 risks of our investments for example for 6:19 picking a specific company how well do 6:21 we know the product how well do we know 6:23 the competition right um what are the 6:25 risks 6:26 of holding that company and further how 6:28 does this fit into the overall kind of 6:30 net assets that one has and maybe to 6:32 one's broader investment plan so as the 6:35 noise of the markets and the noise of 6:37 so-called experts and pundits you know 6:40 all shout you know buy now or sell now 6:42 for me i kind of take a step back and i 6:44 look at the bigger picture i look at two 6:46 to three or four or five years even ten 6:48 years down the road i want to have 6:49 confidence that the companies i choose 6:51 are going to significantly outperform 6:53 right the market and people's 6:55 expectations two three five years even 6:57 ten years out in the future and that's 6:59 largely the confidence i have to kind of 7:01 drown out the noise of the ticker drown 7:04 out the noise of the pundits and the 7:05 short term news and kind of hold long 7:07 term because i think over time the long 7:09 term holders on the best companies in 7:11 the world are going to probably 7:13 outperform not just index but most hedge 7:15 fund and hedge fund managers out there i 7:17 hope this this has been helpful if it 7:18 has go ahead like and subscribe all my 7:20 videos can be found as an audio podcast 7:22 as well just search for dave lee on 7:23 investing in your favorite podcast 7:25 player i'm also on twitter at heyday7 7:27 i'll probably be coming to you from the 7:29 grand canyon the next time i talk to you 7:31 guys alright we'll see you guys later 7:32 bye
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和家人一起去大峽谷 0:12 我們的房車和股市是 0:14 經歷了一些巨大的波動 0:16 以及特斯拉和許多其他股票 0:19 納斯達克 0:21 實際上昨天它飆升至 0:23 現在將近一萬三千美元 0:24 它下降到大約十二點 0:26 一千三百特斯拉漲了 0:28 高於 950 現在又回落到 0:30 約 873 0:32 單日跌近80點 0:35 美國10年期國債收益率上升 0:38 超過 3% 所以我們正在經歷 0:40 昨天大起大落 0:42 市場大漲，每個人都 0:44 樂觀的權利有一個總 0:46 變調了，但今天 0:48 市場大跌，每個人的 0:50 談論整個世界沉沒 0:51 進入衰退，我們有很多 0:54 可以給我思考的所謂專家 0:56 幾乎任何事情的解釋 0:58 匹配市場在這方面所做的事情 1:00 天所以一般大眾 1:03 感到困惑，他們想知道 1:05 是的，他們應該先賣掉他們的股票嗎 1:07 這次經濟衰退來襲，我認為我們需要 1:09 發現我所謂的攻擊，我們已經 1:12 有兩件事發生在一個第一 1:13 我們得到了我們得到的第二個專家 1:15 我想交易的股票代碼 1:17 一次用這些，所以排名第一 1:19 依賴所以金融網絡是 1:22 給人們他們想听的和 1:24 市場擇時意見主要針對 1:26 娛樂所以你有很多 1:27 電視上和其他地方的人在給 1:31 正確他們的意見是否 1:32 市場將下跌或上漲，並且 1:34 人們被這種類型所吸引 1:36 快錢的娛樂權 1:38 下注短期而不是更多 1:40 但從長遠的角度來看 1:43 許多權威人士和所謂的專家 1:44 我想看看他們10年的記錄 1:46 或者至少他們 10 到 20 年的軌跡 1:48 記錄，看看他們是否可以顯著 1:50 用他們的股票擊敗指數 1:52 我想知道選秀權和他們的市場時機 1:54 有時，如果這一切都是騙局，我 1:56 知道騙局可能太苛刻了 1:59 一句話，但你有很多人在 2:02 他們試圖打動人們的西裝 2:03 他們賺了很多錢 2:05 管理費是這樣的 2:07 商業模式越多錢越適合你 2:09 可以管理更多的費用 2:10 產生然而大多數資金經理是 2:13 長期跑輸大市 2:15 術語，我認為這是主要的 2:17 我們看到被動趨勢的原因 2:19 低成本指數基金投資因此 2:22 假設的平均年回報率 2:24 如果您比較 sp 500，則為 2011 年至 2020 年 2:29 指數與平均對沖基金，你會 2:31 看到 sp 指數表現出色 2:35 和一般的對沖基金幾乎每 2:37 年，並在很大程度上看 2:39 2020 年是 18 對 10 對沖 2:42 2019 年的基金是 sp 531 2:46 平均對沖基金 10 2:49 現在在 2007 年，沃倫·巴菲特大獲成功 2:52 點，他下了100萬美元的賭注 2:54 與 protege 的對沖基金經理 2:56 sp 500 將執行的合作夥伴 2:59 比手工挑選的要好 3:02 10年期對沖基金 3:04 是的，他的 3:06 沃倫·巴菲特輕而易舉地贏得了這場賭注， 3:08 如果你看這個 sp 500 3:11 優於精選的對沖 3:13 大量資金現在我們 3:15 有很多人在媒體上 3:17 談銷售 3:19 有了這個令人沮喪的消息和令人沮喪的 3:21 經濟上的預測，我認為是 3:23 可能有些人可以賣 3:25 合適的時間，他們可以回購 3:26 正確的時間，但我認為一般 3:28 說起來經常很困難 3:30 當新聞最悲觀的時候 3:32 實際定價和很多次 3:35 數量市場甚至可以重新反彈 3:37 在經濟衰退期間，甚至有時 3:39 超級悲觀，因為市場 3:41 投資者普遍期待 3:43 很多人可能會認為，嘿，我會 3:44 在經濟衰退期間出售或或對 3:46 之前和之後我會買回來 3:48 那種為時已晚的權利，你已經 3:50 實際上必須在正確之前出售 3:52 公眾實際上變得超級 3:54 陰沉的，你需要買回來 3:56 最低和最陰暗的點和 3:59 這實際上很難 4:01 為大多數人做第二件事 4:02 我想解決我認為的股票行情 4:04 有另一種攻擊或一種 4:06 個人投資者面臨壓力 4:09 實際上在期間出售他們的股票 4:11 壓力大的時候，所以有一個超 4:13 公共股票的流動性，因為 4:15 你可以賣 寫你的股票 4:17 隨時公開持有的股票 4:20 有點像有人來找你 4:21 房子每五分鐘敲一次 4:23 門要求你賣掉你的股票和 4:25 給你一個價格 4:27 在某種意義上隨著時間的推移變得痛苦 4:30 每次看股票行情 4:32 對於您的投資組合，就像某人一樣 4:34 問你對不對 我可以買你的股票嗎 4:36 以這個價格從你那裡得到 4:38 在一段時間內 4:41 很多人只是賣掉結束 4:43 波動性的焦慮權和 4:46 我認為他們的投資組合的起伏 4:48 我們需要一個策略來降低噪音 4:51 我認為人們的股票行情 4:53 通常傾向於高估自己的 4:55 短期計時能力，我認為 4:58 第一件事是現實的 4:59 我們的無能或缺乏能力 5:02 真的有信心和 5:03 一致性和時機很短 5:05 短期的起伏我也覺得 5:08 了解股票代碼主要是 5:10 娛樂 它只是一些東西 5:12 觀察但不是真正作為 5:14 每次都賣給你的機會 5:16 看看它我也認為它是明智的 5:19 可能不看股價 5:21 如果你無法處理，那通常是 5:23 最後我認為每個人都需要 5:25 一篇論文，所以如果你投資於指數 5:28 資金讓我們說 sp 500 或總計 5:31 市場基金我認為你需要一個將軍 5:32 關於你為什麼投資的論文 5:34 指數基金 為什麼你認為指數基金 5:36 從長遠來看會跑贏什麼 5:38 你的目標和策略是多久你 5:40 計劃持有就像你的出口是什麼 5:42 戰略以及它如何適應 5:43 如果您選擇和 5:45 押注個股 i 5:47 個人認為需要評價 5:49 未來兩到五年的預測 5:51 多年，你讓自己確定你 5:53 你知道向別人借錢嗎 5:54 但我猜其他人有不同 5:57 你知道預測和他們的看法 5:58 未來如此除了二至五 6:01 年 我想也是五到十年 6:04 一個好主意，但我們需要 6:06 現實很多次未來 6:07 預測可能是非常錯誤的 6:10 是的，有人承認 6:12 尤其是五到十年後 6:13 很多路都可能出錯或鎖死 6:15 進一步改變我們需要了解 6:17 我們投資的風險，例如 6:19 挑選一家具體的公司做得如何 6:21 我們了解產品 我們對產品的了解程度 6:23 競爭權嗯是什麼 6:25 風險 6:26 持有該公司以及進一步如何 6:28 這是否適合整體類型 6:30 擁有並且可能擁有的淨資產 6:32 一個人更廣泛的投資計劃，以便 6:35 市場的噪音和市場的噪音 6:37 你知道的所謂的專家和專家 6:40 都喊你知道現在買還是賣 6:42 對我來說，我有點退後一步，我 6:44 看大圖 我看兩個 6:46 到三四年甚至五年甚至十年 6:48 多年以後我想擁有 6:49 對我選擇的公司有信心 6:51 將顯著跑贏大盤 6:53 正確的市場和人民 6:55 期待二三五年甚至 6:57 十年後的未來 6:59 很大程度上是我必須要有的信心 7:01 淹沒股票行情的噪音 7:04 消除權威人士的噪音和 7:05 短期新聞和持有多頭 7:07 術語，因為我認為隨著時間的推移 7:09 最佳公司的長期持有人 7:11 世界可能會 7:13 不僅跑贏指數，而且跑贏大多數對沖 7:15 基金和對沖基金經理在那裡我 7:17 希望這對您有所幫助 7:18 已經繼續喜歡並訂閱我所有的 7:20 視頻可以作為音頻播客找到 7:22 也只需搜索 dave lee on 7:23 投資您最喜歡的播客 7:25 玩家我也在全盛時期的推特上 7:27 我可能會從 7:29 大峽谷下次我和你說話時 7:31 伙計們，我們稍後再見 7:32 再見 英語（自動生成）
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