https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rDKdKYXwX1c
Transcript0:05 [Music] 0:07 hey it's dave so i'm coming to you from 0:09 the redwood national state parks up in 0:11 northern california it's absolutely 0:13 gorgeous here 0:15 i'll be continuing to do my rv trip for 0:17 the next few months so i want to talk 0:19 about tesla because tesla stock is up 0:21 huge this morning as the time of this 0:23 recording tesla stock is up almost nine 0:25 and a half percent so seventy dollars up 0:27 to eight hundred and twelve dollars who 0:29 knows um how it'll end the day however 0:32 you know some people are asking like why 0:34 is tesla stocks up so big after right 0:36 this earnings report and i want to go 0:38 through and kind of analyze some of the 0:40 things that happened with this earnings 0:41 report one of the biggest surprises was 0:43 they reported lower operating expenses 0:45 than expected so they sold 75 of their 0:48 bitcoin for a slight profit and that 0:51 offset a lot of their loss right for the 0:54 remaining um 25 of the bitcoin they held 0:56 this was actually a super smart move by 0:59 tesla management and it resulted in 1:01 higher profits and higher operating 1:03 margins than most people anticipated now 1:05 there was a slight negative in the 1:06 earnings report that auto gross margin 1:08 excluding regulatory credits was a 1:10 little lower than most people expected 1:12 it was in line with most analysts at 1:14 about 26.2 percent and the big reason 1:16 for that was because of the ramp 1:18 inefficiencies at austin in berlin this 1:20 was the first quarter that the expenses 1:22 from austin and berlin went into cost of 1:24 goods that actually impacts the gross 1:26 margins right for 1:28 tesla's vehicles as tesla reaches volume 1:31 production in austin and berlin you're 1:33 going to see this gross margin figure 1:35 for automotive increase i think quarter 1:37 over quarter for the next few quarters 1:39 so this is going to be good news i think 1:41 for tesla going forward also perhaps the 1:43 biggest kind of affirmation of guidance 1:45 that tesla gave was they reaffirmed 1:47 their 50 percent growth target for 2022. 1:50 this is huge so tesla's aiming for 1.4 1:52 million vehicles this year that means 1:54 they need to deliver 840 000 vehicles in 1:58 the next two quarters and if they're 2:00 able to do that they're going to see 2:01 record revenue i think they're going to 2:02 see record gross profits record 2:04 operating margins and record overall 2:06 profits as well now the stock is up big 2:08 today and there could be a few reasons 2:10 for this so first off the bad news for 2:13 tesla is likely in the rear view mirror 2:15 of course we don't know what's going to 2:16 happen right going forward there could 2:18 be another shutdown in china if there's 2:20 a strain or a new outbreak of covet 2:22 there all things considered though it 2:23 looks like tesla is going to have a 2:24 great second half of 2022 and perhaps 2:27 even a better 2023 and i think what's 2:30 pulling all of this is the demand demand 2:32 for tesla cars remains super strong 2:34 they're able to adjust their pricing to 2:36 keep in check with inflation and it 2:37 looks like tesla's able to push through 2:39 right a possible recession all right 2:40 second reason for the big pop today in 2:42 tesla stock is i think on the earnings 2:44 call tesla really showed how they're 2:46 displaying and exercising great 2:48 financial management and discipline by 2:50 selling 75 of the bitcoin for profit and 2:53 managing that super well they've also 2:55 managed to keep operating expenses um in 2:58 check and this just improves tesla's 3:00 overall financial picture also cuttings 3:02 like 10 of their salary workers all of 3:04 this shows great financial discipline 3:07 and it goes against kind of the 3:08 narrative of tesla or elon being kind of 3:10 reckless in the area and i think this is 3:11 one of the reasons why the stock is 3:13 responding today all right third reason 3:15 tesla stock is popping today is because 3:17 of macro situation so it's really 3:19 unclear right where the macro situation 3:21 where the markets are going to go some 3:23 people are thinking that pessimism has 3:25 reached its peak and when we look at 3:27 high growth stocks they've been in 3:29 actually a big bear market for over the 3:30 past year probably almost the past 18 3:32 months or so because of that we need to 3:34 kind of separate i think high growth 3:36 stocks from the regular and the rest of 3:38 the market it's an entirely possible 3:40 situation that actually you know let's 3:42 say we have a recession let's say that 3:44 broad indexes still have a way to go 3:46 down however it's possible high growth 3:48 stocks could have bottomed already and 3:51 one of the reasons is because if a 3:52 recession hits and the fed kind of has 3:55 to halt or pause their rate hike 3:57 increases this could have a great 3:58 positive impact right on high growth 4:00 stocks that have had uh such a hard time 4:02 in the past year and a half all right 4:04 fourth reason why tesla stock has popped 4:07 today is i think it's because of the six 4:09 to 12 month picture or outlook for tesla 4:12 going forward see wall street looks for 4:14 perhaps six to 12 months max 24 months 4:16 right that's kind of the time frame they 4:17 typically have and when we look at 4:19 tesla's next six to 12 months it looks 4:21 absolutely fantastic right we're looking 4:24 at tesla exiting 2022 with a 2 million 4:28 vehicle per year production run rate now 4:31 that's astounding now if we take just a 4:33 rough picture of let's say tesla's able 4:35 to get 10 000 4:37 of operating profit per vehicle so how 4:39 do you get that number let's say 4:40 hypothetically tesla has fifty thousand 4:42 dollars of average sales price per 4:44 vehicle now it's actually much higher 4:45 than that it's going to be probably over 4:47 55 000 by the end of the year but let's 4:48 just for argument's sake say 50 000 4:51 let's say 20 operating margin will give 4:53 10 000 per vehicle so if tesla is at a 2 4:56 million right production annual run rate 4:59 by the end of this year that basically 5:01 is a run rate of 20 billion dollars in 5:03 operating profit and this is just within 5:05 the next six months or so so in terms of 5:07 valuation you have 20 billion dollars 5:10 right of of operating profit run rate 5:12 just within the next you know six months 5:14 or so and what kind of multiple are 5:17 investors going to give on that 5:18 obviously you're not going to give a 20 5:19 or 30 multiple off of that type of 5:21 operating profit for a company that's 5:22 growing so fast right it's going to be 5:24 much higher of course it's going to be 5:26 up to each individual and for big money 5:28 to decide that multiple also the overall 5:30 macro and market sentiment is going to 5:32 also decide that valuation multiple as 5:34 well anyways hope this has been helpful 5:37 if it has good like and subscribe all my 5:38 videos can be found as an audio podcast 5:40 as well just search for dave lee on 5:41 investing in your favorite podcast 5:43 player for the next few weeks i'm going 5:45 to be heading up the oregon coast and 5:47 the washington coast 5:48 eventually making my way through idaho 5:50 montana south dakota colorado et cetera 5:53 eventually making my way back to texas 5:55 in a few months all right we'll see you 5:57 guys my next video thanks
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0:05 [音樂] 0:07 嘿，我是戴夫，所以我來找你 0:09 紅杉國家公園 0:11 北加州絕對是 0:13 華麗的這裡 0:15 我將繼續為我的房車旅行 0:17 接下來的幾個月，所以我想談談 0:19 關於特斯拉，因為特斯拉股票上漲 0:21 今天早上和這個時間一樣巨大 0:23 記錄特斯拉股票幾乎上漲了九 0:25 百分之半，所以七十美元 0:27 八百一十二塊錢誰 0:29 知道嗯它會如何結束這一天 0:32 你知道有些人會問為什麼 0:34 特斯拉的股票漲得這麼大嗎？ 0:36 這份收益報告，我想去 0:38 通過並分析一些 0:40 這筆收入發生的事情 0:41 報告最大的驚喜之一是 0:43 他們報告了較低的運營費用 0:45 超出預期，因此他們售出了 75 % 0:48 比特幣微利，那 0:51 彌補了他們的很多損失 0:54 剩下的 25% 他們持有的比特幣 0:56 這實際上是一個超級聰明的舉動 0:59 特斯拉管理，它導致 1:01 更高的利潤和更高的運營 1:03 利潤率比大多數人現在預期的要高 1:05 有輕微的負面影響 1:06 財報顯示汽車毛利率 1:08 不包括監管信貸是 1:10 略低於大多數人的預期 1:12 這與大多數分析師一致 1:14 大約 26.2% 是主要原因 1:16 因為那是因為坡道 1:18 柏林奧斯汀的效率低下 1:20 是第一季度的費用 1:22 從奧斯汀和柏林進入成本 1:24 實際影響總收入的商品 1:26 邊距適合 1:28 特斯拉達到量產時的特斯拉車輛 1:31 在奧斯汀和柏林生產你是 1:33 會看到這個毛利率數字 1:35 對於汽車增長，我認為季度 1:37 在接下來的幾個季度中超過四分之一 1:39 所以我認為這將是個好消息 1:41 對於特斯拉的未來，也許 1:43 最大的一種肯定的指導 1:45 特斯拉給予的是他們重申的 1:47 2022 年 50% 的增長目標。 1:50 這是巨大的，所以特斯拉的目標是 1.4 1:52 今年百萬輛這意味著 1:54 他們需要交付 840 000 輛汽車 1:58 接下來的兩個季度，如果他們是 2:00 能夠做到，他們將會看到 2:01 創紀錄的收入，我認為他們會 2:02 查看創紀錄的毛利潤記錄 2:04 營業利潤率和整體記錄 2:06 利潤以及現在股票大漲 2:08 今天，可能有幾個原因 2:10 為此，首先要了解壞消息 2:13 特斯拉很可能在後視鏡中 2:15 當然我們不知道會發生什麼 2:16 那裡可能會發生 2:18 如果有的話，在中國再一次停工 2:20 一種壓力或新的貪婪爆發 2:22 儘管它考慮了所有事情 2:23 看起來特斯拉將會有一個 2:24 偉大的 2022 年下半年，也許 2:27 甚至更好的 2023 年，我認為是什麼 2:30 拉動這一切都是需求需求 2:32 對於特斯拉汽車來說仍然非常強大 2:34 他們能夠將定價調整為 2:36 控制通貨膨脹和它 2:37 看起來特斯拉能夠挺過去 2:39 對 可能的經濟衰退 好吧 2:40 今天大流行的第二個原因 2:42 特斯拉股票是我認為的收益 2:44 打電話給特斯拉真的展示了他們的樣子 2:46 展示和鍛煉很棒 2:48 財務管理和紀律 2:50 出售 75 個比特幣以獲取利潤 2:53 他們也管理得非常好 2:55 設法將運營費用保持在 2:58 檢查一下，這只會提高特斯拉的 3:00 整體財務狀況也削減 3:02 就像他們的 10 名受薪工人一樣 3:04 這表明了良好的財務紀律 3:07 它違背了 3:08 特斯拉或埃隆的敘述有點 3:10 在該地區魯莽，我認為這是 3:11 股票的原因之一 3:13 今天回复 好吧 第三個理由 3:15 特斯拉股票今天大漲是因為 3:17 宏觀情況，所以它真的 3:19 不清楚權在哪裡，宏觀情況 3:21 市場將走向何方 3:23 人們認為悲觀主義有 3:25 達到了頂峰，當我們看 3:27 他們一直從事的高增長股票 3:29 實際上是一個大熊市 3:30 過去的一年可能幾乎是過去的 18 3:32 幾個月左右，因為我們需要 3:34 有點分開我認為高增長 3:36 來自常規和其餘的股票 3:38 市場是完全有可能的 3:40 實際上你知道的情況讓我們 3:42 說我們有經濟衰退讓我們說 3:44 廣泛的指數還有很長的路要走 3:46 下降，但可能會出現高增長 3:48 股票可能已經觸底並且 3:51 原因之一是因為如果 3:52 經濟衰退襲來，美聯儲的那種 3:55 停止或暫停加息 3:57 增加這可能有很大的 3:58 對高增長的積極影響 4:00 經歷過如此艱難時期的股票 4:02 過去一年半還好 4:04 特斯拉股價暴漲的第四個原因 4:07 今天是我想是因為六 4:09 到 12 個月的圖片或特斯拉的前景 4:12 向前看華爾街尋找 4:14 可能 6 到 12 個月 最多 24 個月 4:16 對，這是他們的時間框架 4:17 通常有，當我們看 4:19 特斯拉的未來 6 到 12 個月看起來 4:21 絕對棒極了，我們正在尋找 4:24 特斯拉在 2022 年以 200 萬 4:28 現在每年的車輛生產運行率 4:31 如果我們只採取一個 4:33 假設特斯拉能夠的粗略圖片 4:35 得到 10 000 4:37 每輛車的營業利潤如何 4:39 你得到那個數字嗎讓我們說 4:40 假設特斯拉有五萬 4:42 每美元平均銷售價格 4:44 車輛現在實際上要高得多 4:45 這可能會結束 4:47 到今年年底達到 55 000 但讓我們 4:48 只是為了爭論說 50 000 4:51 假設 20 營業利潤率會給 4:53 每輛車 10 000 所以如果特斯拉是 2 4:56 萬對生產年運行率 4:59 到今年年底，基本上 5:01 是200億美元的運行速度 5:03 營業利潤，這只是在 5:05 未來六個月左右 5:07 估值你有200億美元 5:10 營業利潤運行率的權利 5:12 就在接下來的六個月內 5:14 左右，什麼樣的倍數 5:17 投資者將為此放棄 5:18 顯然你不會給 20 5:19 或該類型的 30 倍 5:21 一家公司的營業利潤 5:22 增長如此之快，它將會是 5:24 當然會更高 5:26 取決於每個人和大筆資金 5:28 決定多個也是整體 5:30 宏觀和市場情緒將 5:32 還決定估值倍數為 5:34 無論如何，希望這會有所幫助 5:37 如果它有很好的喜歡並訂閱我的所有 5:38 視頻可以作為音頻播客找到 5:40 也只需搜索 dave lee on 5:41 投資您最喜歡的播客 5:43 接下來幾週的球員我要去 5:45 前往俄勒岡海岸 5:47 華盛頓海岸 5:48 最終通過愛達荷州 5:50 蒙大拿南達科他科羅拉多等 5:53 最終回到德克薩斯 5:55 幾個月後我們再見 5:57 伙計們，我的下一個視頻謝謝
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