https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cRoOtsxlRNY
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0:10 foreign 0:37 foreign [Music] 0:49 I'm Kathy Wood CEO and CIO of Arc invest this is in the know 0:57 where I share with you some thoughts about what's going on in the macro economy and in the world of innovation 1:04 and the bad news is that the FED has become extremely aggressive and hawkish 1:14 the good news is that we are beginning to get data that 1:19 is confirming uh that the economy the U.S economy is in recession and and if 1:25 you've tuned in before you you know that we believe that that Europe and China 1:30 effectively have been in recession as well so now global recession uh we're also getting a lot of 1:36 indicators that uh prices are coming down and I think this notion that the 1:43 inflation that everyone has been worried about uh is is quite uh quite a wrong 1:50 way of looking at the world right now we believe that deflation is the much 1:56 bigger risk we've been saying this for a time uh we've been ridiculed for saying it uh and we were challenged by those 2:04 who were sure that we were back into a 70s style inflation uh scenario uh we 2:11 think that that the the pricing action and I'm not just talking about stocks 2:16 and bonds I'm talking about commodity prices uh crypto prices uh and and 2:23 perhaps soon even housing prices uh that many people will conclude the greater 2:29 risk is deflation and as you know uh we don't think deflation is is a Bad Thing 2:35 per se it is a bad thing the way the FED has approached it we believe 2:42 but deflation can be a very good thing if it is caused by technology and 2:48 progress and we think we're going to see a lot of that over the years but right now we're looking at bad deflation and 2:55 we're going to have to get through this I think the next fed move is supposed to 3:01 be at the end of this month and the FED is out of its quiet period so all the 3:06 FED Governors have been traipsing out saying we're going 75 basis points another 75 basis points 3:13 um well we think that they will rethink that this in this month as we get not 3:20 only more pricing signals but earnings reports and guidance for for from companies who will be probably 3:28 confirming that the U.S is now in recession so bad news good news darkest before the 3:37 dawn we called this segment finding growth we think growth is going to be 3:43 scarce this year and as you know Innovation is all about growth Innovation is also about solving 3:50 problems we have a lot of problems now a recession is going to be providing another set of problems so lots of work 3:57 for Innovation to do and that's where we believe you will find real growth okay 4:03 so we'll go through as we normally do monetary policy in a little more detail fiscal policy economic indicators Market 4:12 signals and we'll spend a little time or a little more time than usual on crypto 4:18 given all of the activity and concern in that space 4:24 so um I I did a tweet thread last weekend and basically concluding that the FED 4:32 right now is much more worried about its own legacy than it is about the economy 4:37 it is so afraid that it has let the inflate inflation Genie out of the 4:43 bottle and that it won't be able to get it back that it is in unison basically going out 4:51 there and saying we are going to tighten we have an unconditional commitment to 4:57 two percent inflation well I'm going to be sharing with you a lot of indicators that will 5:05 suggest that using the CPI as its guide the FED is making a big mistake there's 5:12 already a lot of deflation in the economy and so and one of the reasons 5:19 the deflation is accelerating here is because the FED has shocked the system 5:25 we have gone from 0.25 percent 5:31 in the FED funds rate to 1.75 percent in the span of three months 5:38 that's a seven-fold increase we've never seen that before now I know a lot of 5:44 critics are suggesting oh what are you talking about such a from such a low 5:49 level you can't make a comparison to the early 80s when interest rates went from 5:56 10 fed funds rate went from 10 to 20 percent uh which was only a two-fold 6:02 increase you just can't make that comparison well yes I can I can make that comparison up five-fold very 6:09 quickly and I think the FED has panicked and it's causing the the economy the 6:17 economy a lot of problems as I mentioned before though it's becoming obvious now and I do believe they will change their 6:24 tune uh with a few more reports uh so what are the deflationary signals 6:32 we're seeing out there well one of the the most obvious but one that very few 6:38 people mention or maybe they don't monitor our credit of default swap cds's 6:46 uh now this is the price of insurance against bankruptcy 6:52 and so when the price of this insurance goes up dramatically in a short period 6:57 of time uh I certainly take note so the five-year CDX as measured by market 7:05 m-a-r-k-i-t has gone from 50 uh to a 7:11 hundred uh year to date and for JP Morgan so a money center Bank it has 7:18 gone from 48 to 102. so JP Morgan's credit default swaps have gone up more 7:25 than the markets average that's very interesting and and we're trying to figure out what's what is that 7:32 all about uh we know that J JP Morgan is a fortress it's not going bankrupt but 7:38 but there are some investors concerned um or or concerned that there might be 7:45 something systemic going on and so why not take out the insurance now 7:52 102 is is quite a bit below 0809 we were at 239 then and Below covid 8:03 172. but it is above where we reached in the fourth quarter of 2018 80. that was 8:10 a vicious Market downturn in only a quarter one quarters uh time so I think 8:17 it was from September to December uh so the this doubling in in 8:25 um in credit default swaps for the markets average and JP Morgan has us 8:31 asking questions is there something systemic Out There Our guess is that if 8:36 there is it has to do with the reach for yield that we saw during the last few 8:43 years as interest rates went effectively to zero on the short end and as low as 8:49 0.5 percent for the 10-year treasury bond yield during during the Coronavirus 8:56 um now reaching for yield if on top there's leverage uh could be a problem 9:02 now one of the reasons we don't think this is is going to be a problem is 9:08 because of what happened a little more than a year ago with the arcagos blow up 9:15 um apparently One Bank didn't know the amount of Leverage that archicos had 9:21 taken on uh and and this was true across the banking system and and so that's how 9:27 that situation became so leveraged I think risk officers are now looking for 9:33 excessive leverage uh and so we would be surprised if there is going to be a 9:39 systemic risk but we we do want to note that uh the concern is out there and and 9:45 it is elevated um interestingly and speaking of JP 9:50 Morgan uh the head or the chief investment officer of its Asset Management unit unit 9:56 by the last name Michelle came out yesterday and I I found it difficult to 10:04 believe given that he's right in the middle of the bank but he he basically said you know the FED had waited too 10:13 long and now it's going to have to work that much harder to get inflation uh 10:18 under control and um you know I think he's ignoring an 10:24 incredible number of signals the first of which I've just shared with you credit default swaps uh the other one is 10:32 the yield curve and I know I've focused on the yield curve um on this webinar uh many times it is 10:40 flat it did go negative for a time in April we've never in post-world War II 10:46 experience uh seen the yield curve invert without an A recession 10:55 um soon thereafter and we think we're in a recession and that it happened as the 11:00 yield curve was inverting which is which is uh which was a quick response now 11:06 what I'd like to feature this time is the history of yield curves um and when we've moved into crises we 11:14 we've seen monetary and fiscal uh authorities you know easing quite 11:21 significantly trying to stimulate the economy acting as a counterbalance and 11:27 often and certainly since the the early 90s when this has happened the yield 11:33 curve has steepened to the 250 to 300 basis point range so that's 2.5 to 3 11:40 percent range and what this means is long-term interest rates are two and a 11:46 half to three percentage points higher than short-term interest rates and and 11:52 the reason for that is investors begin to worry about the inflationary 11:58 ramifications of fiscal and monetary stimulus so 250 to 300 is where I 12:04 thought we went uh in the middle of the covet crisis because we have never seen 12:11 monetary and fiscal uh policies as stimulus stimulative as we did during 12:18 the coronavirus uh when when we thought we could enter a depression just the 12:25 economy global economy shutting down so I was surprised as we looked back to 12:32 see that the yield curve steepened only to a 150 basis points or 1.5 percent 12:37 what does that mean what does that mean I think it confirms that the bond market 12:44 in its wisdom uh was beginning to worry about deflationary undercurrents and 12:54 um and so to see it flatten so quickly and having only gotten to 150 basis 13:01 points is very interesting um and so what are some of these oh 13:07 there's one other note the last time we saw the yield curve after a recession or 13:14 during a recession getting only to 150 basis points was in the early 80s now 13:20 inflation and interest rates were raging at the time in the double digits and the 13:26 FED had gotten very very tough uh the dollar was Rising fairly 13:33 dramatically and what happened was uh the Louvre Accord was when treasury 13:41 authorities from around the world all got together including the US uh treasury secretary and said okay we've 13:48 got to supply the world with dollars we'll sell dollars and borrow and and buy back uh the other currencies and 13:54 that's what happened so the dollar back then uh was very deflationary uh 14:02 especially for emerging markets who had a lot of debt that was denominated in 14:09 dollars so their currencies were falling apart but their debt was denominated in 14:15 dollars and so it was becoming much more expensive for them to service that debt we may have a similar situation now 14:23 perhaps the dollar going up and it's up more than 10 percent over the last year 14:29 which is a massive move if you're in emerging markets and your currencies are plunging as many are 14:36 so there is there is a likelihood that this is saying more about the 14:42 deflationary undercurrents in the rest of the world much like it did in the early 80s 14:48 so that that was um something of note um 14:54 the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index we got the revision 14:59 to the June survey and what we learned 15:04 is consumer sentiment as measured by the University of Michigan has never been 15:11 lower and this series goes back I thought it went back through the 70s 15:17 I think it goes back through the 40s and so what is this saying and and when you 15:24 parse it out you see that high income earners their sentiment right now is 15:33 lower than the lower income earners and now the lower income earners we thought 15:40 would be much lower because inflation food and energy prices are really really 15:47 hurting terribly regressive tax especially for households that are living you know hand 15:54 to mouth as the saying goes to see high income earners 16:00 falling off that much in terms of confidence uh suggests that a typical 16:05 the typical Big Spenders out there are not going to be there like they normally 16:10 are uh regularly um sort of as an offset to what's uh what's going on so that that that was 16:17 very interesting the other interesting thing to note from the series was inflation expectations which in the 16:25 original or the preliminary release um were up to 3.3 percent uh 16:31 expectations for the next five to ten years on inflation um that was revised away and so the 16:39 markets which went uh into conniptions and I'm talking about both the fixed 16:45 income and the equity markets around that number um that that was wrong it was revised 16:52 away went back to 3.1 and if you look at this series over the last 10 years it's 16:58 kind of averaged around three percent so not much change so again even there this 17:04 hysteria about inflation in the financial markets and you know there are many big time uh very well regarded 17:12 investors out there who were just banging this drum on hey this is the 70s 17:18 get used to it you know get real uh they were just wrong they're just wrong 17:24 um so that was a another interesting uh variable out there but it was the 17:29 sentiment and this idea that if sentiment is that low then I'm going to come back to another concept that we've 17:36 talked about in the past uh and it's controversial but it's the velocity of money 17:42 um from my experience the velocity of money is influenced by a few variables 17:48 one of which is sentiment if people are scared as they were out of 0809 if 17:54 they're and they're more scared now if people are scared they they they they 18:00 spend less now we haven't seen that yet until May 18:06 May we had a negative consumption number outright it was uh minus 0.4 we'll get 18:12 into this in a minute when I talk about economic indicators uh and uh what what 18:18 that tells us is yes the the the consumer is now pulling back and not 18:24 betting that in prices and interest rates are going up and I have to beat 18:31 them and buy whatever I want now whether it's a home or a durable good uh that 18:38 that behavior if if it existed is is stuck shopping and and the velocity of 18:46 money which is the rate at which money turns over as the consumer chases in an inflationary environment it it turns 18:52 over faster as the consumer recoils uh it turns over slower well that's that's 19:00 very interesting because it uh the estimate for June's money growth is 19:07 based on what we know about demand deposits in the banking system is about five percent if the velocity of money is 19:15 slowing uh that means that GDP growth will be less than money growth and if money 19:24 growth turns negative as some people think it will on a 19:29 year-over-year basis it already has year to date it's down from its peak but if 19:35 it were to turn negative on a year-over-year basis then the the GDP growth falling further 19:42 below that would be quite the recession so 19:47 uh we're we're very focused on on on confidence and this notion that 19:53 deflation is actually going to cause the opposite if you expect prices and 19:59 interest rates to go down then you'll hold off buying and if you're scared you 20:05 won't buy anything to begin with now one of the variables and this is switching 20:11 to fiscal policy now that could push money into negative territory is uh 20:17 Federal outlays Federal outlays are down 20 percent on a year-over-year basis now 20:25 that makes sense it's not a shock because there was so much stimulus put 20:31 into the system uh the last package I think it was a two trillion dollar package we did not need and we it 20:38 shouldn't have happened but it did and so now we're seeing the unwinding of 20:43 that unlike the 70s uh and 60s by the way 20:50 um we are seeing an unwinding of a stimulus program uh they're letting it 20:55 happen and uh and and this is relevant again to this notion that we were never 21:02 going to get into a 70s style uh a 70s style inflation problem the problem in 21:10 the 70s really started in 1964. the Vietnam War in April that's when we 21:17 entered and in May the Great Society that's when Lyndon John Baines Johnson 21:25 signed the Great Society introducing more welfare programs and so forth so 21:30 guns and butter as it's known we can fund everything and 21:36 um and that was wrong that was very wrong and we paid for it in the 70s the 21:42 other thing that happened in the early 70s is we went off the gold exchange standard it was a charade anyway we were 21:50 cheating on it and France called us on it and and so we went off the gold 21:56 exchange standard and um of course all hell broke loose in terms of inflation so we don't have the 22:03 Great Society guns and butter I mean a new version of it we have what we have 22:10 um and and uh we are letting the the stimulus 22:16 roll off so those are very big differences from from the 70s and I 22:21 think uh Senators mansion and Cinema on the Democratic side are a big reason 22:28 this is happening uh senator manchin in particular has linked the budget deficit 22:34 to inflation and so um his constituents are very angry about 22:41 food and energy prices uh so so that's why I think we um uh we're in good shape 22:47 in terms of not committing the mistakes that we did in uh in the 60s and 70s 22:55 now on the economy a couple of things are changing uh which 23:00 I think will turn the fed's head one is employment we're hearing about layoffs 23:07 we're hearing about Venture Capital firms advising their companies to lay 23:13 off quickly because this is bad uh and and that is happening we're seeing 23:19 initial unemployment claims moving up now if you're looking at a very long-term chart the move up seems 23:26 imperceptible but if you're looking at the numbers uh claims have gone from a 23:33 hundred and sixty thousand 167 000 uh during the week of April 1st uh 23:40 to 231 000. so that's a 35 increase and that's a change in Trend to be sure 23:49 um the other thing that's changing is housing almost every metric is showing 23:54 weakness we'll get the odd increase here and there uh but housing is definitely 23:59 losing Steam another curious thing that we learned from the data that came out reported in 24:06 this last month was the GDP revision for the first quarter now the GDP number 24:13 comes out first month after the end of the quarter it's revised in the second month and revised again in the third 24:20 month so in June we got a second revision for the first quarter 24:26 the most surprising thing in that revision first of all rarely is much 24:32 revised in the third revision but this time real consumption which was originally 24:39 reported at 3.1 percent in the first quarter was revised down to 1.8 percent 24:46 now that may not sound like a big adjustment but that's nearly cutting the 24:51 growth in half I've never seen an adjustment that big and I think what's 24:58 what's happened and this has caught a lot of companies off card is the consumer just started shutting down 25:05 and we saw in April the original number reported was 0.7 percent that was 25:13 revised down to 0.3 which when you adjust for inflation was probably down 25:19 uh 0.6 something like that and in May 25:24 the the number was no I apologize that that 0.3 is a real 25:31 number in May the real number was negative minus 0.4 so we are seeing 25:39 declining consumption and we know from Target and Walmart who have been shocked 25:46 I can tell from the way management and management answer questions they're 25:52 shocked at how the consumer has turned off and they are shocked at how their 25:58 inventories have ballooned we went through this last time so 33 I think it 26:03 was for Walmart 42 percent for Target I think even Costco 26 Home Depot I think 26:10 was 32 percent I mean these are massive increases and it's going to take a while 26:15 for them to unwind so what are they going to do if they want to clear their shelves they are going to cut prices and 26:22 they have said they're going to cut prices so there you go uh deflation we 26:28 got today GDP now which is the Atlanta feds 26:34 version every day economic statistics come out the Atlanta fed adjusts its 26:41 real GDP number for that quarter and today they reduced it 26:49 to a decline of 2.1 percent so two weeks ago they two or three weeks ago they 26:56 were they had a positive one percent last week they went to a minus 1.1 27:01 percent and now it's minus 2.1 percent so put that together with real GDP at 27:11 minus 1.6 percent in the first quarter and we have a recession that technical 27:16 reset definition of a recession is two 27:22 consecutive uh negative quarters of real GDP growth so we have them and we're 27:30 also seeing we get a lot of regional reports the regional feds 27:35 and other trade associations put out reports in the middle of the month and 27:42 looking at the Dallas one uh Richmond um and Philadelphia 27:49 they're all uh they're all in negative territory or much lower than expected 27:56 and the one that surprised me the most was Dallas which looked like it was uh 28:02 one of the worst reports and that's right in the middle of energy country so 28:07 what what's that all about so um and then 28:13 um and then you know in the middle of the month the fed this was June 15th the 28:19 FED did 75 basis points now originally chairman Powell said 50 basis points was 28:25 probably going to do the trick for for that month instead they wanted to shock the market and they did and the market 28:32 again went into a tailspin the marquettes and 28:40 of course the Fed was reacting to the CPI which had come out on June 10th it 28:47 came out at uh higher than expected one percent 8.6 percent year-over-year one 28:53 percent sequentially and on June 14th it got the PPI that was 28:59 up 0.8 percent um and 10.8 percent year-over-year 29:04 now that's what the Fed was looking at we look at both of those as lagging 29:11 indicators if you take the two leading indicators from our point of view are when it comes 29:20 to inflation gold and when it comes to activity output 29:25 copper copper is the smartest commodity it's 29:30 often called the commodity with a PhD now if we look at uh at Gold we'll see 29:39 that we see that it has been in a trading range 1700 to to a little less 29:45 than 2100 for two years it peaked 29:51 on all the way back two years ago on August 7th of 2020 peaked at 20 30:02 2075 today it's at 1805. now that is still up from the 1200 30:10 where it was uh before uh before the massive easing uh but that was 30:17 integrated into the price when it hit that easing when it hit 2000. since then 30:23 it's been down uh and it's still in the trading range it would have to break 30:29 below 1700 to break the trading range so when I use the word deflation it's the 30:35 it's approaching the lower end of the trading range um I use the word deflation mostly 30:41 because we're seeing it now in a lot of commodity prices but gold which uh I Pro 30:47 I probably trust gold more than any commodity to give us the right signal on on um 30:52 true outright deflation um we're not there yet if you look at 30:58 copper copper has been in a trading range for one year in the four to five 31:04 dollar range uh it peaked in March March 31:10 11th uh uh of this year at roughly five dollars and now it's 31:18 down to 360. so it broke below that trading range that's very significant 31:24 from an economic activity point of view and the reason it's even more significant than I think most economists 31:30 might appreciate is because electric vehicles 31:36 consume three to five times more copper than traditional gas powered vehicles 31:43 and there has been a massive consumer preference shift to electric vehicles so 31:48 that breakdown below this trading range is even more significant for that reason 31:54 uh so those are the two if we were at the FED if we had a voice at the table 32:02 we would ask at every meeting what has gold been doing and what is copper doing 32:07 and um so there you have the answer gold is at the lower end of its trading range it 32:14 did not break out to the upside when you think about a trading range and this this has been very helpful through my 32:20 career with equities when there's a big trading range and we used this to explain our position on Tesla at one 32:27 point in time when there's a big trading range what that means is the bulls and bears are fighting with each other 32:32 there's a big debate and it's going to resolve one way or the other one camp or the other is going to 32:40 be right thank goodness in the case of Tesla we were very right the breakout was to the 32:46 upside um in the case of gold seems like we're at the lower end of that range let's see 32:52 if it breaks down If the Fed continues to tighten it will break down uh and and 32:59 ring the bell for outright broader base deflation um in in the case of copper the 33:07 breakdown the breakdown has taken place and today we got uh the supply chain 33:16 managers report it's ISM report now in looking back over those data first of 33:22 all it was a bad report orders were negative they dropped below 50. which 33:27 makes sense inventories are ballooning but when we went back to look at the 33:33 peak in this series um we were quite surprised um this metric the manufacturing ISM 33:42 index the overall index peaked March a year ago 33:48 at 63.7 and it's now 53 and as I mentioned 33:55 50 is the demarcation Mission Point between expansion and contraction so 34:00 slight expansion still orders this is the leading indicator of that index 34:06 however did drop into negative territory they peaked way back in 2020 at 67.5 and 34:14 now we're at 40 49. and so uh I do believe the the the reaction to uh 34:25 inventories excess inventories is underway we're seeing this elsewhere we're seeing prices come down for Dram 34:33 and and we know now why Micron reported last night and the two areas it cited as 34:41 being very weak and where it had to revise its numbers considerably were PCS 34:46 and smartphones so PCS uh originally uh 34:52 or in its forecast it had zero percent growth now it has for for the year now 34:58 it has a 10 decline for the year but in order to get there 35:03 sequentially PCS would have to remain flat that's not going to happen I think 35:09 Micron and others are going to have to revise down their numbers again same thing with smartphones originally they 35:16 thought up 5 percent now down five percent for the year uh again uh that is 35:22 probably too optimistic um we saw an interesting statistic today 35:27 our uh analyst Frank Downing uh on Nvidia has been tracking uh GPU prices 35:34 and they had been selling above the manufacturer 35:40 manufacturers suggested price um for about two years they peaked at 35:46 about fifteen hundred dollars this particular GPU and I think uh the the 35:53 the the recommended price was something like 500 so in the secondary markets 35:59 they peaked at fifteen hundred now they're 500. so prices down two-thirds 36:05 there inventories Taiwan semiconductor today overnight as well as saying uh yes 36:12 our um our our customers are cutting back they have too much inventory that's 36:19 in the chip sector which is where where we had all the supply chain problems so 36:24 I think that problem's going to go away we're seeing uh the shipping indexes the 36:29 Baltic Freight index is down more than 50 percent from its peak so we're seeing supply chain problems again uh 36:36 diminishing there used car prices are down five percent from their Peak 36:42 earlier this year and if you annualize that that's closer to a 10 percent decline 36:48 we think used car prices are going to plummet now that mass transit is getting back on 36:56 track uh households with an auto that 37:01 they really don't need as much anymore um can sell into what has been a very strong market and again when you see 37:08 prices falling uh then you want to sell as fast as possible not by so we expect 37:15 an acceleration there and we'll see what happens uh with housing I think the 37:20 reach for yield reached into housing especially the rental sector a lot of 37:27 people bought about houses um basically to earn a yield and my 37:34 goodness the rental yields were very high those are probably going to come 37:41 down and if these people decide to sell into what has been a very 37:47 hot Market home prices at the margin will come off the boil so now let's uh 37:54 let's go to markets uh well crypto had its worst quarter since 2011. 38:02 um and it's a much more mature Market than it was back then with the boom bust so that's saying something the s p down 38:10 20 percent year-to-date NASDAQ down roughly 30 percent so the stock market 38:16 has not seen a worse a worse year-to-date since 1962. 38:24 and uh and that was when the Cuban Crystal uh Missile Crisis took place 38:30 uh and then what happened after that is we ended up uh in the Great Society guns 38:37 and butter and uh inflation took off but first the stock market was was a barn 38:44 burner it was uh very hot from 62 to 66. 38:49 uh when it comes to bonds this has been the worst year to date performance in 38:57 bonds in anyone's lifetime and by some measures you have to 39:04 piecemeal uh the bonds but to to try and get the record uh the worst since 39:11 1788 you know that's more than 250 years ago 39:16 so or almost 250 years ago so it's been a very very rough rough market for 39:24 investors we think there is light at the end of the tunnel the light is that the 39:30 FED is getting a lot of uh signals that will ultimately end up in the lagging 39:36 indicators called the PPI and the CPI they're getting a lot of indicators and 39:42 I think a lot of companies are going to be telegraphing in their earnings reports this next month that we are in 39:49 recession and I do believe the FED will do a a double take 39:55 I want to spend a little time on crypto it has been an incredible month and 40:01 fears of systemic collapse have been Rife in the marketplace so we we've seen 40:08 uh Bitcoin it peaked way back in November at 69 000 and it is now at 19. uh 19 40:18 500. um uh it is still higher than its 40:23 pre-covered seven to ten thousand range and it is just about at its uh 40:30 2017 high so this could be some support it's also at 40:38 um it's it's it is below it's uh it's 200 week moving average 40:45 which is at 22 500. so there is some concern that that is the new resistance 40:52 now as we've seen the last month play out talk about 40:58 um a reach for yield crypto personified that D5 personified that uh when uh and 41:07 we knew that the Luna Terra experiment with algorithmic stable stable coins was 41:14 not going to work it was backed by nothing and I remember we did a podcast with 41:21 dokwan it's still on our site and I remember listening to it twice because I I couldn't understand what he was doing 41:28 or saying I am an economist uh by background uh and uh and so I really do 41:36 try and noodle through these things and I just didn't think that was going to work and it failed in spectacular 41:43 fashion in in May uh and uh and has 41:48 taken Celsius down with it uh Voyager digital uh three-hour arrows Capital 41:56 uh blockfi almost it was very interesting uh to see block five's last 42:02 funding round at three billion dollars this is a lending platform 42:08 and tried to do another round recently at one billion dollars uh he couldn't 42:15 get it done and today it seems that uh FTX um is going to uh is going to buy it out 42:24 or it has the option to buy the equity for 240 million a rumor this week had it 42:30 at 25 million so much better than that but much worse less than a tenth of its 42:36 last round so and it's not just happening in crypto uh clarna just announced I believe that 42:45 its last round was in the 45 billion dollar range there's a fintech company 42:50 and uh it is doing around now at six and a half billion dollars so big big down 42:58 roads happening very quickly we have uh uh 43:03 um or we will put out today uh our Bitcoin monthly we started it last month 43:09 and the title is Contagion versus capitulation and as you 43:15 know if you if you saw our last report we have a lot of on-chain analytics 43:21 which give us a sense of um of the capitulation in the 43:26 marketplace and also a sense of what is going bad out there the transparency uh 43:34 in in the market I think is the reason we've seen a lot of failures very 43:40 quickly we have compared to the opacity in the traditional financial markets I think 43:48 the ShakeOut in crypto has happened sooner and faster than it would have in 43:56 the traditional financial markets it's interesting that block fi 44:02 is is going to FTX we know that two other platforms or companies London 44:09 which is a or lead lead n which is a um 44:15 a lending platform in Canada highly regarded uh also seem to be interested 44:21 as did I believe Morgan Creek now these These are people who really know what's 44:27 going on in defy and if they're willing to step in here that has increased my 44:32 confidence to some extent that the systemic risk is diminishing here 44:39 with time we're seeing that each meltdown seems to be a smaller one not 44:44 the opposite um so that is giving us some confidence 44:49 the only reason I think people are a bit on edge here is technicians who 44:59 um those who really don't follow the crypto markets at all they're just technicians they follow equities bonds 45:05 they they don't they don't care what these companies do or um you know what what kind of fixed 45:12 income instrument it is they just have their technicals and um just off the cuff they they will say 45:20 well if it breaks from here it could go to 11 to 13 000 from this 1905. and the reason they 45:28 say that I I can see this on the charts is that's where there is a huge amount of support where it peaked a lot of 45:35 times in a trading range that said I will say that I am feeling a 45:44 lot better about what's going on in the crypto world right now um you'll see our Bitcoin monthly I 45:50 would say you know we're neutral to positive we're waiting for a few uh a 45:56 few more capitulation signals and of course time will tell on the systemic 46:03 side here and we haven't heard of another stress 46:08 signal in in the last few days so so that's good as well so the what I will 46:15 leave with is what's happened in the crypto Market gives you a sense of why 46:21 it is a very um why it's going to work long run it's 46:28 transparent and there's a lot more trust in the crypto ecosystem because of the 46:35 transparency and the over collateralization uh then I think there is in the 46:41 traditional financial markets and when we wonder why why are the cds's going up 46:48 on these Banks um we wonder about the reach for yield and how leveraged some of these 46:55 situations are and we don't know where they're hiding and so maybe that's all 47:00 this is is like okay the crypto Market has alerted us that this reach for yield 47:07 is uh went way too far there are too many excesses too much leverage around 47:14 it hedge funds leveraging ten to one when yields are two percent so that they can 47:21 reach the returns uh their return objectives uh maybe there are some 47:26 problems out there and we will find out but for right now I'm really number one 47:32 that we have so many signals that will get to the FED in some way shape or form 47:38 even if they have to wait for the CPI they will get into the CPI and that they are suggesting to me that 47:47 the FED has already gone too far and that if it increases rates again I doubt 47:54 it'll be 75 maybe 25 or 50. I even think that will be a bit too much given what's 48:00 going on out there and given the recession we're in but at least at least the numbers and 48:07 and part of this is downward revisions originally the FED thought these numbers 48:13 were very strong consumption very strong no consumption is falling apart 48:18 so believe it or not it bad news is good news now as tends to be the case in a 48:26 bear Market when inflation is a concern so bad news is good news and it's always 48:33 darkest before the dawn and uh I I believe we've passed the darkest place 48:40 there are others out there we are reading them in the Press they say we're 48:45 only halfway there and um I think they follow algorithms I've 48:51 watched a bunch of algorithmic behavior that you know just chases chases as an 48:57 idea Chase is an idea until it stops and I think we're getting close to that 49:03 point where they who seem so right with their negative stance over the last year or so 49:09 um will be on the wrong side of that trade so with that um I wish everyone a very happy Fourth 49:16 of July here in the United States and and everyone around the world 49:22 um a happy weekend thank you [Music]
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0:10 外國的 0:37 外國[音樂] 0:49 我是 Arc Investment 的 Kathy Wood 首席執行官兼 CIO，這是知情的 0:57 我在這裡與您分享一些關於宏觀經濟和創新世界正在發生的事情的想法 1:04 壞消息是美聯儲變得非常激進和鷹派 1:14 好消息是我們開始獲得數據 1:19 正在確認呃美國經濟處於衰退中，如果 1:25 在你知道我們相信歐洲和中國之前你已經收聽了 1:30 實際上也一直處於衰退中，所以現在全球衰退，呃，我們也得到了很多 1:36 價格正在下降的指標，我認為這個概念 1:43 大家一直擔心的通貨膨脹呃是相當呃相當錯誤 1:50 現在看待世界的方式，我們認為通貨緊縮是最重要的 1:56 更大的風險 我們已經說了一段時間了 呃 我們因為這樣說而被嘲笑 呃 我們受到了那些人的挑戰 2:04 誰確定我們回到了 70 年代風格的通貨膨脹 呃場景 呃我們 2:11 認為定價行為，我不只是在談論股票 2:16 和債券 我說的是商品價格呃加密貨幣價格呃和 2:23 也許很快甚至很多人都會得出結論的房價會更大 2:29 風險就是通貨緊縮，正如你所知，我們不認為通貨緊縮是一件壞事 2:35 我們認為，美聯儲處理它的方式本身就是一件壞事 2:42 但是如果通貨緊縮是由技術引起的，那麼通貨緊縮可能是一件好事 2:48 進步，我們認為多年來我們會看到很多這樣的情況，但現在我們正面臨嚴重的通貨緊縮和 2:55 我們將不得不度過難關，我認為美聯儲的下一步行動應該是 3:01 到本月底，美聯儲已經走出了平靜期，所以所有的 3:06 美聯儲理事一直在說我們將再降 75 個基點再降 75 個基點 3:13 嗯，我們認為他們會在本月重新考慮這一點，因為我們沒有 3:20 只有更多的定價信號，但可能來自公司的收益報告和指導 3:28 確認美國現在正處於衰退 所以壞消息 好消息 最黑暗的前 3:37 黎明，我們稱這部分為尋找增長，我們認為增長將是 3:43 今年稀缺，正如你所知，創新就是增長創新也就是解決問題 3:50 問題我們有很多問題現在經濟衰退將帶來另一組問題所以很多工作 3:57 做創新，這就是我們相信你會發現真正的增長的地方 4:03 因此，我們將像往常一樣詳細介紹貨幣政策 財政政策 經濟指標 市場 4:12 信號，我們將在加密上花費比平時多一點或多一點的時間 4:18 考慮到該領域的所有活動和關注 4:24 所以 um II 上週末發了一條推文，基本上得出的結論是美聯儲 4:32 現在更擔心自己的遺產而不是經濟 4:37 它是如此害怕它已經讓通貨膨脹的通貨膨脹精靈脫離了 4:43 瓶子，它不能把它拿回來，它是一致的，基本上出去了 4:51 在那裡並說我們將收緊，我們無條件承諾 4:57 2% 的通貨膨脹率，我將與你分享很多指標，這些指標將 5:05 建議使用 CPI 作為其指導美聯儲犯了一個大錯誤 5:12 經濟已經出現了很多通貨緊縮等等原因之一 5:19 通貨緊縮在這裡加速是因為美聯儲震驚了系統 5:25 我們已經從 0.25% 5:31 美聯儲基金利率在三個月內升至 1.75% 5:38 這是我們以前從未見過的七倍增長現在我知道很多 5:44 批評者在暗示哦，你在說什麼從這麼低的 5:49 您無法與 80 年代初利率水平相比 5:56 10 聯邦基金利率從 10% 到 20% 呃這只是兩倍 6:02 增加你只是不能很好地比較是的我可以我可以把比較提高五倍非常 6:09 很快，我認為美聯儲已經驚慌失措，它正在導致經濟 6:17 正如我之前提到的那樣，經濟存在很多問題，儘管現在變得很明顯，我相信他們會改變他們的 6:24 用更多的報告調整呃，那麼通貨緊縮信號是什麼 6:32 我們很好地看到了其中最明顯但極少的一個 6:38 人們提到或者他們可能沒有監控我們對默認掉期 CD 的信用 6:46 呃，現在這是破產保險的價格 6:52 所以當這個保險的價格在短時間內急劇上漲時 6:57 時間，呃，我當然注意到了，以市場衡量的五年期 CDX 7:05 markit 已經從 50 uh 變成了 7:11 迄今為止，對於摩根大通來說，它是一個貨幣中心銀行 7:18 從 48 到 102。所以摩根大通的信用違約掉期增加了更多 7:25 比市場平均水平非常有趣，我們正試圖弄清楚那是什麼 7:32 嗯，我們知道 J JP Morgan 是一座堡壘，它不會破產，但 7:38 但是有一些投資者擔心嗯或擔心可能會有 7:45 系統性的事情正在發生，所以為什麼不現在就買保險 7:52 102 比 0809 低很多，我們當時是 239，低於 covid 8:03 172. 但高於我們在 2018 年第四季度達到的水平 80. 那是 8:10 一場惡性市場低迷僅在四分之一個季度，呃，所以我認為 8:17 那是從 9 月到 12 月 8:25 嗯，市場平均水平的信用違約掉期，摩根大通有我們 8:31 問問題是否存在系統性問題 我們的猜測是，如果 8:36 這與我們在過去幾年中看到的收益範圍有關 8:43 年利率在短期內有效地降至零，並且低至 8:49 冠狀病毒期間 10 年期國債收益率為 0.5% 8:56 嗯，如果在上面有槓桿的話，現在正在爭取收益，呃可能是個問題 9:02 現在我們認為這不會成為問題的原因之一是 9:08 因為一年多前發生的事情，阿卡戈斯爆炸了 9:15 嗯，顯然 One Bank 不知道 archicos 擁有的槓桿數量 9:21 嗯，這在整個銀行系統都是如此，所以這就是如何 9:27 這種情況變得如此重要，我認為風險官員現在正在尋找 9:33 過度槓桿呃，所以我們會感到驚訝如果有 9:39 系統性風險，但我們確實想指出，呃，擔憂就在那裡，並且 9:45 有趣的是，它被提升了，說到JP 9:50 Morgan uh 其資產管理部門的負責人或首席投資官 9:56 姓米歇爾昨天出來了，我發現很難 10:04 相信他就在銀行中間，但他基本上說你知道美聯儲也等了 10:13 很長，現在它必須更加努力地工作才能獲得通貨膨脹，呃 10:18 在控制之下，嗯，你知道我認為他忽略了一個 10:24 難以置信的信號數量，我剛剛與您分享的第一個信號是信用違約掉期，另一個是 10:32 收益率曲線，我知道我在這個網絡研討會上一直關注收益率曲線 10:40 平它確實在四月的一段時間內出現負數，這是二戰後從未有過的 10:46 經驗 uh 看到收益率曲線在沒有 A 型衰退的情況下倒掛 10:55 嗯，此後不久，我們認為我們正處於衰退之中，並且它發生在 11:00 收益率曲線正在倒掛，這是呃，現在是一個快速的反應 11:06 這次我想重點介紹的是收益率曲線的歷史，嗯，當我們陷入危機時，我們 11:14 我們已經看到貨幣和財政當局你知道的相當寬鬆 11:21 大力試圖刺激經濟作為平衡和 11:27 自 90 年代初發生這種情況以來，通常而且肯定會 11:33 曲線已陡峭至 250 至 300 個基點範圍，因此為 2.5 至 3 11:40 百分比範圍，這意味著長期利率是兩個和一個 11:46 比短期利率高半到三個百分點，以及 11:52 原因是投資者開始擔心通脹 11:58 財政和貨幣刺激的後果，所以 250 到 300 是我的地方 12:04 以為我們是在覬覦危機中去的，因為我們從未見過 12:11 貨幣和財政政策就像我們在過去所做的那樣具有刺激性 12:18 冠狀病毒呃當我們認為我們可以進入抑鬱症的時候 12:25 經濟 全球經濟正在關閉，所以當我們回顧過去時，我感到很驚訝 12:32 看到收益率曲線僅陡峭至 150 個基點或 1.5% 12:37 那是什麼意思 那是什麼意思 我認為這證實了債券市場 12:44 在它的智慧中，呃開始擔心通貨緊縮的暗流和 12:54 嗯，所以看到它這麼快就變平了，而且只達到了 150 基 13:01 點很有趣，嗯，這些是什麼哦 13:07 上次我們看到經濟衰退後的收益率曲線時，還有另一個注意事項 13:14 在經濟衰退期間只達到 150 個基點現在是 80 年代初 13:20 當時通貨膨脹和利率都以兩位數的速度肆虐， 13:26 美聯儲變得非常非常強硬，呃美元正在相當上漲 13:33 戲劇性地發生的事情是盧浮宮協議是當財政部 13:41 世界各地的當局都聚在一起，包括美國呃財政部長，說好的，我們已經 13:48 必須向世界提供美元，我們將出售美元並藉入並買回其他貨幣和 13:54 這就是發生的事情，所以當時的美元非常通縮，呃 14:02 尤其是對於背負大量以人民幣計價的債務的新興市場而言 14:09 美元，因此他們的貨幣分崩離析，但他們的債務以 14:15 美元，因此他們償還債務變得更加昂貴，我們現在可能有類似的情況 14:23 也許美元會上漲，並且比去年上漲了 10% 以上 14:29 如果您在新興市場並且您的貨幣正在暴跌，那麼這是一個巨大的舉措 14:36 所以有可能這更多地說明了 14:42 世界其他地區的通貨緊縮暗流，就像 80 年代初那樣 14:48 所以那是嗯值得注意的東西 14:54 密歇根大學消費者信心指數我們得到了修正 14:59 到 6 月份的調查和我們學到的東西 15:04 密歇根大學衡量的消費者情緒是否從未 15:11 更低，這個系列可以追溯到 70 年代 15:17 我認為它可以追溯到 40 年代，所以這句話是什麼意思，當你 15:24 分析一下，您會發現高收入者現在的情緒是 15:33 低於低收入者，現在是我們認為的低收入者 15:40 會低得多，因為通貨膨脹食品和能源價格真的 15:47 傷害了可怕的累退稅，尤其是對於那些你知道的家庭來說 15:54 俗話說看高收入 16:00 在信心方面下降那麼多 呃表明一個典型的 16:05 典型的大手筆不會像往常那樣在場 16:10 嗯，經常，嗯，有點像是對正在發生的事情的一種抵消，所以那是 16:17 非常有趣的另一個值得注意的事情是通脹預期，在 16:25 原版或初版 嗯高達3.3% 呃 16:31 對未來 5 到 10 年的通脹預期，嗯，被修正了，所以 16:39 呃進入conniptions的市場，我說的是固定的 16:45 收入和圍繞這個數字的股票市場 嗯，這是錯誤的，它已被修改 16:52 away 回到 3.1，如果你看看過去 10 年的這個系列 16:58 平均在百分之三左右，所以變化不大，所以即使在那裡也是如此 17:04 對金融市場的通貨膨脹歇斯底里，你知道有很多重要的時間，呃，非常受人尊敬 17:12 那些剛剛敲鼓的投資者，嘿，這是 70 年代 17:18 習慣它你知道變得真實他們只是錯了他們只是錯了 17:24 嗯，這是另一個有趣的變量，但它是 17:29 情緒和這個想法，如果情緒那麼低，那麼我將回到我們已經討論過的另一個概念 17:36 過去談過，呃，這是有爭議的，但它是金錢的流通速度 17:42 嗯，根據我的經驗，貨幣流通速度受幾個變量的影響 17:48 其中之一是情緒，如果人們害怕，就像他們在 0809 中一樣，如果 17:54 他們是，他們現在更害怕如果人們害怕他們他們他們他們 18:00 現在花更少的錢我們直到五月才看到 18:06 可能我們有一個直接的負消費數字它是呃負0.4，我們會得到 18:12 當我談論經濟指標時，馬上進入這個話題 18:18 這告訴我們是的，消費者現在正在撤退而不是 18:24 押注價格和利率會上漲，我必須擊敗 18:31 他們然后買我現在想要的任何東西，不管是房子還是耐用品 18:38 如果存在的話，這種行為是卡住購物，並且 18:46 貨幣是消費者在通貨膨脹環境中追逐時貨幣周轉率 18:52 隨著消費者的退縮，它轉得更快，嗯，它轉得更慢 19:00 非常有趣，因為 uh 對 6 月份貨幣增長的估計是 19:07 根據我們對銀行系統活期存款的了解，如果貨幣流通速度為 19:15 放緩，呃，這意味著GDP增長將低於貨幣增長，如果貨幣增長 19:24 正如一些人認為的那樣，增長變為負數 19:29 與去年同期相比，到目前為止，它已經從峰值下降了，但如果 19:35 同比下降，GDP增速進一步下滑 19:42 低於那將是相當大的衰退，所以 19:47 呃，我們非常專注於信心和這個概念 19:53 如果你預期價格和通貨緊縮實際上會導致相反的結果 19:59 利率下降，那麼你會推遲購買，如果你害怕你 20:05 不會從現在開始購買任何東西 變量之一，這正在轉換 20:11 現在對可能將資金推入負值區域的財政政策是呃 20:17 聯邦支出 聯邦支出現在同比下降 20% 20:25 這是有道理的，這並不令人震驚，因為有太多的刺激措施 20:31 進入系統 呃最後一個包裹 我認為這是一個我們不需要的兩萬億美元的包裹 我們它 20:38 不應該發生，但它確實發生了，所以現在我們看到了 20:43 順便說一句，這不像 70 年代呃和 60 年代 20:50 嗯，我們正在看到一項刺激計劃的取消，他們正在允許它 20:55 發生了，嗯，這再次與我們從未有過的概念有關 21:02 進入 70 年代風格 呃 70 年代風格 通貨膨脹問題 問題在 21:10 70 年代真正開始於 1964 年。4 月的越南戰爭就是我們 21:17 5 月，林登·約翰·貝恩斯·約翰遜進入了偉大的社會 21:25 簽署了大社會引入更多的福利計劃等等 21:30 眾所周知，槍支和黃油 我們可以資助一切 21:36 嗯，那是錯誤的，那是非常錯誤的，我們在 70 年代為此付出了代價 21:42 70 年代初發生的另一件事是我們脫離了黃金兌換標準，無論如何我們都是在開玩笑 21:50 作弊，法國叫我們上它，所以我們離開了金牌 21:56 交換標準和嗯當然在通貨膨脹方面都崩潰了，所以我們沒有 22:03 偉大的社會槍支和黃油我的意思是它的新版本我們擁有我們所擁有的 22:10 嗯，嗯，我們讓刺激 22:16 滾滾，所以這些與 70 年代和我有很大的不同 22:21 認為民主黨方面的參議員豪宅和電影院是一個重要原因 22:28 正在發生這種情況，嗯，參議員曼欽特別將預算赤字聯繫起來 22:34 通貨膨脹，所以他的選民非常生氣 22:41 食品和能源價格，嗯，所以這就是為什麼我認為我們，嗯，我們處於良好狀態 22:47 關於不犯我們在 60 年代和 70 年代在呃犯下的錯誤 22:55 現在在經濟方面，有幾件事正在發生變化 23:00 我認為將讓美聯儲頭疼的一件事是我們聽說裁員的就業 23:07 我們聽說風險投資公司建議他們的公司投資 23:13 快速關閉，因為這很糟糕，呃，而且我們正在看到這種情況正在發生 23:19 如果您正在查看一個非常長期的圖表，那麼最初的失業救濟人數現在正在上升 23:26 難以察覺，但如果您正在查看數字，呃聲稱已經從 23:33 160,000 167 000 uh 在 4 月 1 日那一周 uh 23:40 到 231 000。所以增加了 35，這是趨勢的變化，可以肯定 23:49 嗯，另一件正在改變的事情是住房幾乎每個指標都在顯示 23:54 弱點我們會在這里和那裡得到奇怪的增長，但是住房肯定是 23:59 失去 Steam 我們從報告的數據中了解到的另一件奇怪的事情 24:06 上個月是第一季度的 GDP 修正值，現在是 GDP 數字 24:13 季度結束後的第一個月發布，第二個月修改，第三個月再次修改 24:20 月，所以在 6 月，我們對第一季度進行了第二次修訂 24:26 該修訂版中最令人驚訝的事情首先很少是 24:32 在第三次修訂中進行了修訂，但這次是實際消費，原來是 24:39 第一季度報告為 3.1% 下調至 1.8% 24:46 現在這聽起來可能不是一個大調整，但這幾乎是削減 24:51 增長一半我從未見過如此大的調整，我認為這是什麼 24:58 發生了什麼事，這讓很多公司都束手無策是消費者剛剛開始關閉 25:05 我們在 4 月份看到最初報告的數字是 0.7% 25:13 下調至 0.3，當你調整通貨膨脹時，它可能下降了 25:19 呃 0.6 類似的，在五月 25:24 數字不是我很抱歉 0.3 是真實的 25:31 5 月的數字實際數字是負數 - 0.4 所以我們看到 25:39 消費下降，我們從塔吉特和沃爾瑪了解到，他們感到震驚 25:46 我可以從管理層和管理層回答問題的方式看出 25:52 對消費者如何關閉感到震驚，他們對他們的 25:58 庫存激增，我們上次經歷了這個，所以 33 我想是的 26:03 是沃爾瑪 42% 是 Target 我認為甚至是 Costco 26 Home Depot 26:10 是 32% 我的意思是這些是巨大的增長，這需要一段時間 26:15 讓他們放鬆，所以如果他們想清理貨架，他們會怎麼做，他們會降價和 26:22 他們說他們要降價所以你去吧通貨緊縮我們 26:28 得到了今天的 GDP，即亞特蘭大聯邦調查局 26:34 每日經濟統計數據出爐 亞特蘭大聯儲調整其 26:41 該季度的實際 GDP 數字，今天他們減少了 26:49 下降 2.1% 所以兩週前他們在兩三週前 26:56 上週他們是正的百分之一嗎？他們是負的 1.1 27:01 % 現在是負 2.1% 所以把它和實際 GDP 放在一起 27:11 第一季度負 1.6%，我們遇到了技術上的衰退 27:16 重新定義衰退的定義是兩個 27:22 連續 uh 實際 GDP 增長負季度，所以我們有它們，我們是 27:30 還看到我們收到了很多地區聯邦調查局的地區報告 27:35 等行業協會在月中發布報告， 27:42 看著達拉斯一個呃里士滿嗯和費城 27:49 他們都是呃他們都處於負值區域或遠低於預期 27:56 最讓我吃驚的是達拉斯，它看起來像呃 28:02 最糟糕的報告之一，就在能源國家的中間，所以 28:07 那是怎麼回事，嗯，然後 28:13 嗯，然後你知道在這個月中旬美聯儲這是 6 月 15 日 28:19 美聯儲現在做了 75 個基點，最初主席鮑威爾說 50 個基點是 28:25 可能會在那個月做這個把戲，而不是他們想震驚市場，他們做到了，市場 28:32 馬奎特再次陷入混亂， 28:40 當然，美聯儲正在對 6 月 10 日公佈的 CPI 做出反應 28:47 比預期高出 1% 同比增長 8.6% 28:53 連續百分比，並在 6 月 14 日獲得了 PPI 28:59 同比增長 0.8% 和 10.8% 29:04 現在這就是美聯儲所關注的，我們認為這兩者都是滯後的 29:11 指標如果你從我們的角度來看兩個領先指標是什麼時候出現的 29:20 通貨膨脹黃金和活動產出 29:25 銅 銅是最聰明的商品 29:30 現在通常被稱為具有博士學位的商品如果我們看一下黃金，我們會看到 29:39 我們看到它一直處於 1700 到 1700 到以下的交易範圍內 29:45 超過2100兩年達到頂峰 29:51 一路回到兩年前的 2020 年 8 月 7 日 20 日達到頂峰 30:02 2075 今天是 1805。現在仍然高於 1200 30:10 在大規模寬鬆之前，呃，呃，但那是 30:17 當它達到 2000 時，當它達到那個寬鬆時，它就融入了價格。從那時起 30:23 它已經下跌了，它仍然在必須突破的交易範圍內 30:29 低於 1700 以打破交易區間，所以當我使用通貨緊縮這個詞時 30:35 它正在接近交易區間的下限 嗯，我主要使用通貨緊縮這個詞 30:41 因為我們現在在很多大宗商品價格中都看到了這一點，但黃金是我親 30:47 我可能比任何商品都更相信黃金能給我們正確的信號 30:52 真正的徹底通貨緊縮，如果你看，我們還沒有到 30:58 銅 銅在四到五年內一直處於交易區間一年 31:04 美元區間呃它在三月三月見頂 31:10 今年第 11 次呃呃大約 5 美元，現在是 31:18 跌至360。因此它跌破了非常重要的交易區間 31:24 從經濟活動的角度來看，它比我認為大多數經濟學家更重要的原因 31:30 可能會欣賞是因為電動汽車 31:36 消耗的銅是傳統燃氣動力汽車的三到五倍 31:43 並且已經有大量消費者偏好轉向電動汽車，所以 31:48 出於這個原因，低於這個交易範圍的細分甚至更為重要 31:54 呃，如果我們在美聯儲，如果我們在餐桌上有發言權，那就是這兩個 32:02 我們會在每次會議上詢問黃金在做什麼，銅在做什麼 32:07 嗯，所以你有答案黃金處於其交易區間的低端 32:14 當您考慮交易區間時並沒有向上突破，這通過我的 32:20 當交易區間很大時從事股票職業，我們用它來解釋我們對特斯拉的立場 32:27 交易區間很大的時間點，這意味著多頭和空頭正在互相爭鬥 32:32 有一場大辯論，它將以一種方式解決，或者另一個陣營或另一個陣營將解決 32:40 是對的，謝天謝地，在特斯拉的情況下，我們非常正確，突破是 32:46 在黃金的情況下，我們似乎處於該範圍的下限，讓我們看看 32:52 如果它崩潰如果美聯儲繼續收緊它就會崩潰 32:59 在銅的情況下，為徹底更廣泛的基礎通縮敲響警鐘 33:07 故障發生了，今天我們得到了供應鏈 33:16 經理們報告說它現在是 ISM 報告，首先回顧這些數據 33:22 所有這是一個糟糕的報告訂單是負面的，他們跌破了 50。 33:27 庫存在膨脹是有道理的，但是當我們回過頭來看 33:33 在這個系列中達到頂峰 嗯，我們很驚訝 嗯，這個指標是製造業 ISM 33:42 index 綜合指數一年前3月見頂 33:48 63.7，現在是 53，正如我提到的 33:55 50是擴張和收縮之間的分界點所以 34:00 小幅擴張仍有訂單 這是該指數的領先指標 34:06 但是確實跌入負值區域，它們早在 2020 年就達到了 67.5 的峰值，並且 34:14 現在我們是 40 49。所以，我確實相信對 uh 的反應 34:25 庫存 過剩庫存正在進行 我們在其他地方看到這種情況 我們看到 Dram 的價格下降 34:33 而且我們現在知道為什麼美光昨晚報導了它引用的兩個領域 34:41 非常薄弱，必須大幅修改其數字的是 PCS 34:46 和智能手機，所以 PCS uh 本來 uh 34:52 或者在它的預測中，它現在的增長率為零 34:58 它今年下降了 10 次，但為了到達那裡 35:03 順序 PCS 將不得不保持平穩，我認為這不會發生 35:09 美光和其他公司將不得不再次修改他們的數字，與最初的智能手機一樣 35:16 原以為今年上漲 5% 現在下跌 5% 35:22 可能太樂觀了，我們今天看到了一個有趣的統計數據 35:27 我們的 uh 分析師 Frank Downing uh on Nvidia 一直在跟踪 uh GPU 價格 35:34 他們一直在銷售高於製造商 35:40 製造商建議價格大約兩年他們達到頂峰 35:46 這個特殊的 GPU 大約 1500 美元，我想呃 35:53 建議的價格是 500 左右，所以在二級市場 35:59 最高價是一千五，現在是五百。所以價格下降了三分之二 36:05 台灣半導體今天隔夜庫存還有說呃是的 36:12 我們的我們的客戶正在削減他們的庫存太多了 36:19 在芯片領域，這是我們遇到所有供應鏈問題的地方，所以 36:24 我認為這個問題會消失，我們會看到運輸指數 36:29 波羅的海貨運指數從峰值下跌了 50% 以上，所以我們再次看到供應鏈問題呃 36:36 二手車價格從峰值下降了 5% 36:42 今年早些時候，如果按年計算，下降幅度接近 10% 36:48 我們認為隨著公共交通的恢復，二手車價格將會暴跌 36:56 追踪有汽車的家庭 37:01 他們真的不再需要那麼多了 37:08 價格下跌，呃，那麼你想盡快賣掉，而不是我們期望的那樣 37:15 那裡加速，我們會看到住房會發生什麼，我認為 37:20 獲得收益 進入住房，尤其是租賃行業 37:27 人們買房子基本上是為了賺取收益和我的 37:34 天哪，租金收益率非常高，那些可能會到來 37:41 下來，如果這些人決定賣進一個非常 37:47 邊緣的熱市場房價將沸騰，所以現在讓我們呃 37:54 讓我們去市場吧，嗯，加密貨幣經歷了自 2011 年以來最糟糕的一個季度。 38:02 嗯，這是一個比當時繁榮蕭條的市場更加成熟的市場，所以這說明了一些 sp down 38:10 年初至今 20% 納斯達克下跌約 30%，因此股市 38:16 自 1962 年以來，今年迄今從未出現過更糟糕的情況。 38:24 呃，那是古巴水晶呃導彈危機發生的時候 38:30 呃然後那之後發生的事情是我們最終進入了大社會的槍支 38:37 和黃油和呃通貨膨脹起飛，但首先股市是一個穀倉 38:44 燃燒器從 62 到 66 非常熱。 38:49 呃，就債券而言，這是迄今為止表現最差的一年 38:57 任何人一生中的紐帶，通過某些措施，你必須 39:04 零碎的 uh the Bonds but to try and get the record 呃 最糟糕的 39:11 1788 你知道那是 250 多年前 39:16 大約 250 年前，所以這是一個非常非常粗糙的原石市場 39:24 投資者我們認為隧道盡頭有光 39:30 美聯儲收到很多呃信號，這些信號最終會滯後 39:36 稱為 PPI 和 CPI 的指標 他們得到了很多指標和 39:42 我認為很多公司將在下個月的收益報告中傳達我們所處的位置 39:49 經濟衰退，我相信美聯儲會採取雙重措施 39:55 我想花一點時間在加密上，這是一個令人難以置信的月份， 40:01 市場上普遍存在對系統性崩潰的擔憂，所以我們已經看到 40:08 呃比特幣它早在 11 月就達到了 69 000 的峰值，現在是 19。呃 19 40:18 500.嗯嗯還是比它的高 40:23 預先覆蓋七到一萬範圍，它就在它的呃 40:30 2017 年高點，所以這可能是一些支持，它也在 40:38 嗯它是它低於它是呃它是 200 週移動平均線 40:45 這是22 500。所以有人擔心這是新的阻力 40:52 現在，正如我們上個月看到的那樣，談論 40:58 嗯，收益加密的範圍體現了 D5 體現了 uh 當 uh 和 41:07 我們知道使用算法穩定幣的 Luna Terra 實驗是 41:14 不工作它沒有任何支持，我記得我們做了一個播客 41:21 dokwan 它還在我們的網站上，我記得聽了兩次，因為我不明白他在做什麼 41:28 或者說我是經濟學家，呃，背景呃呃呃，所以我真的這樣做 41:36 嘗試通過這些事情來做麵條，我只是不認為這會奏效，而且它以驚人的方式失敗了 41:43 時尚在五月 uh and uh and has 41:48 用它降低攝氏溫度 uh Voyager digital uh 三小時箭頭 Capital 41:56 呃 blockfi 幾乎很有趣 呃 看到 block 5 的最後一個 42:02 融資 30 億美元 這是一個借貸平台 42:08 並試圖在最近以 10 億美元進行另一輪，呃，他做不到 42:15 完成它，今天似乎 uh FTX um 會 uh 會買斷它 42:24 或者它可以選擇以2.4億的價格購買股權 本周有傳聞 42:30 2500萬比這好得多，但比它的十分之一差得多 42:36 上一輪如此，這不僅僅是發生在加密貨幣中，呃克拉納剛剛宣布，我相信 42:45 它的上一輪融資在 450 億美元範圍內，有一家金融科技公司 42:50 嗯，它現在正在做大約 65 億美元，如此大的跌幅 42:58 道路發生得很快，我們有 uh uh 43:03 嗯，否則我們將在今天推出我們的比特幣月刊，我們上個月開始發布 43:09 標題是傳染與投降，就像你 43:15 如果您看過我們的上一份報告，請知道我們有很多鏈上分析 43:21 這讓我們有一種投降的感覺 43:26 市場以及對那裡正在惡化的事情的感覺透明度呃 43:34 在市場上，我認為這是我們看到很多失敗的原因 43:40 我認為我們很快就將其與傳統金融市場的不透明性進行了比較 43:48 加密貨幣中的 ShakeOut 發生得比以前更快、更快 43:56 傳統金融市場 有趣的是封鎖金融市場 44:02 是要去 FTX 我們知道另外兩個平台或公司倫敦 44:09 這是一個或鉛鉛n這是一個嗯 44:15 加拿大的一個借貸平台很受重視的呃好像也有興趣 44:21 就像我現在相信摩根克里克一樣，這些人真正知道什麼是 44:27 繼續無視，如果他們願意介入這增加了我的 44:32 在某種程度上相信這裡的系統性風險正在減少 44:39 隨著時間的推移，我們看到每次崩潰似乎都是較小的，而不是 44:44 相反的，這給了我們一些信心 44:49 我認為人們在這裡有點緊張的唯一原因是技術人員 44:59 嗯，那些根本不關注加密市場的人，他們只是技術人員，他們關注股票債券 45:05 他們不關心他們不關心這些公司做什麼或者你知道什麼樣的固定 45:12 收入工具，他們只是有他們的技術，嗯，他們會說他們是即興表演 45:20 好吧，如果它從這里中斷，它可能會從 1905 年到 11 到 13 000。以及他們的原因 45:28 說我可以在圖表上看到這一點，這是有大量支持的地方，它達到了很多峰值 45:35 在一個交易區間內，我會說我感覺 45:44 更好地了解加密世界現在正在發生的事情，嗯，你會每月看到我們的比特幣我 45:50 會說你知道我們是中立到積極的我們正在等待一些呃 45:56 更多的投降信號，當然時間會告訴系統性 46:03 在這裡，我們還沒有聽說過其他壓力 46:08 在過去的幾天裡發出信號，所以這也很好，所以我會做什麼 46:15 離開是加密市場中發生的事情讓你了解為什麼 46:21 這是一個非常嗯為什麼它會長期工作的原因 46:28 透明並且對加密生態系統有更多的信任，因為 46:35 透明度和過度抵押，嗯，我認為在 46:41 傳統金融市場，當我們想知道為什麼 cds 會上漲時 46:48 在這些銀行，我們想知道收益率的範圍以及如何利用其中的一些 46:55 情況是，我們不知道他們藏在哪裡，所以也許就是這樣 47:00 這就像好的，加密市場已經提醒我們，這是為了收益 47:07 是不是走得太遠了 有太多的過激行為 太多的槓桿 47:14 它對沖基金在收益率為 2% 時使用 10 比 1 的槓桿，這樣他們就可以 47:21 達到回報 uh 他們的回報目標 uh 也許有一些 47:26 問題在那裡，我們會發現，但現在我真的是第一 47:32 我們有如此多的信號會以某種方式或形式到達美聯儲 47:38 即使他們必須等待 CPI，他們也會進入 CPI，並且他們向我建議 47:47 美聯儲已經走得太遠了，如果它再次加息，我懷疑 47:54 可能是 75 可能是 25 或 50。我什至認為這有點太多了 48:00 考慮到我們所處的經濟衰退，至少在數字和 48:07 其中一部分是向下修正，最初美聯儲認為這些數字 48:13 非常強烈 消費非常強烈 沒有消費正在崩潰 48:18 所以信不信由你 壞消息現在是好消息 48:26 當通貨膨脹是一個問題時熊市，所以壞消息是好消息，而且總是 48:33 黎明前最黑暗的，呃，我相信我們已經通過了最黑暗的地方 48:40 還有其他的，我們正在新聞界讀到他們說我們是 48:45 只有一半，嗯，我認為他們遵循我的算法 48:51 看了一堆算法行為，你知道它們只是追逐追逐 48:57 想法追逐是一個想法，直到它停止，我認為我們正在接近那個 49:03 指出他們在過去一年左右的負面立場似乎如此正確 49:09 嗯，我會站在錯誤的一邊，所以我祝大家美國獨立日快樂 49:16 七月在美國和世界各地的每個人 49:22 嗯，週末愉快，謝謝[音樂]
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