Tesla closes below $600 for the first time since December — here’s what’s weighing the stock down

 https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/05/tesla-whats-weighing-the-stock-down.html

Key Points

• Tesla finished below $600 for the first time since Dec. 4, and has lost 15% on the year.
• The sell-off comes amidst a bigger drawback in tech stocks, which are valued based on the presumption of heavy growth in future cash flows.
  (科技股的估值是基於對未來現金流量大幅增長的推定。)
• Competition and parts shortages are also playing a part.
  

  This is causing a broader correction in tech stocks, which are valued based on the presumption of heavy growth in future cash flows. As inflation goes up, the value of those future cash flows declines. As CNBC previously reported, the Nasdaq 100 list of the largest 100 non-financial stocks on the exchange, is down about 8% from historic highs reached three weeks ago.

  This is affecting most tech giants. For instance, Apple dropped from approximately $129 to $121 year-to-date, and Netflix has dropped from around $523 to $516. But Tesla’s drop is more precipitous, so far.

  Bulls acknowledge competition

  Some of Tesla’s biggest and most vocal backers have cashed out a chunk of their shares, and begun to acknowledge the onslaught of electric vehicle competition as a real challenge to Tesla at long last.

  For example, Ron Baron sold 1.7 million worth of Tesla shares and invested in two of the company’s biggest potential rivals, GM-owned Cruise and Amazon-backed Rivian, while paradoxically saying he expects Tesla shares to rise, eventually, to $2,000.

  Former Tesla board member Steve Westly said on CNBC’s Power Lunch this week that while he remains bullish, “Tesla is not going to be king of the hill in electric forever.” He added, “They’re getting competition from all sectors. They’re going to have to double down to compete.”

  Indeed, automakers including Ford and Volkswagen have seen early success with sales of their electric vehicles including the Mach E and ID.3 up against Tesla models in the US and Europe.

  Meanwhile, forthcoming EV’s, including the all electric version of Ford’s F-150, the Lucid Air, Rivian’s electric SUVs and trucks, and others are stirring excitement. Just yesterday, Porsche showed off the production version of its Taycan Cross Turismo, and said it would start sales in the US this summer. It’s a $90,000 EV wagon, a more affordable, practical take on Porsche’s performance EV, the Taycan.

  公牛隊承認競爭

  特斯拉最大，最有聲望的支持者中的一些人已經兌現了他們的大部分股份，並開始承認電動汽車競爭的衝擊最終成為特斯拉真正的挑戰。

  例如，羅恩·巴倫（Ron Baron）出售了170萬股特斯拉股票，並投資了該公司最大的兩個潛在競爭對手，即通用汽車旗下的Cruise和亞馬遜支持的里維安（Rivian），而自相矛盾的是，他預計特斯拉股票最終將升至2,000美元。

  特斯拉前董事會成員史蒂夫·韋斯特利（Steve Westly）本週在CNBC的電力午餐會上表示，儘管他仍然看漲，但“特斯拉不會永遠成為電動汽車之王”。他補充說：“他們正在吸引各行各業的競爭。他們將不得不加倍競爭。”

  的確，包括福特和大眾在內的汽車製造商已經在其電動汽車（包括Mach E和ID.3）的銷售上取得了早期的成功，在美國和歐洲與特斯拉車型相比。

  同時，即將面世的電動汽車，包括福特F-150的全電動版本，Lucid Air，Rivian的電動SUV和卡車等，都引起了人們的興奮。就在昨天，保時捷展示了Taycan Cross Turismo的量產版本，並表示將於今年夏天開始在美國銷售。這是一輛價值90,000美元的EV旅行車，是保時捷高性能電動汽車Taycan的更實惠，更實用的選擇。

  Part shortages

  Semiconductor shortages have caused most auto makers to temporarily close some lines at their factories, and Tesla is no exception.

  Tesla CEO Elon Musk acknowledged the company’s Fremont, California, plant shut down temporarily due to “parts shortages” in a tweet on February 25. He said it was shut down for just two days, but did not make clear whether partial shut-downs on some lines would continue.

  Tesla had previously warned, in its Q4 2020 earnings call and filing, that chip shortages could hamper their vehicle production goals in the first half of 2021.

  CFO Zachary Kirkhorn said on the call with investors, that for the first quarter of 2021:

  ″[Model] S and X production will be low due to the transition to the newly re-architected products. Additionally, we are working extremely hard to manage through the global semiconductor shortage as well as port capacity which may have a temporary impact.”

  If Tesla does not produce a high volume of vehicles, due to parts shortages or lag times shipping parts from overseas to its U.S. plants, the company would not generate as many regulatory credits that it wants to. Tesla sells these environmental credits to other automakers, which is how it has historically achieved profitability.

  Steeper expenses

  Controlling costs has been on CEO Elon Musk’s mind on and off for years.

  In December 2020, he wrote in e-mail to all Tesla employees: “Investors are giving us a lot of credit for future profitability but if, at any point, they conclude that’s not going to happen, our stock will immediately get crushed like a souffle under a sledgehammer!”

  But at the same time, Tesla is on an expansion tear that will cost it handsomely. The EV maker is building factories in Austin, Texas, in Brandenburg, Germany and expanding its footprint in China. It has also embarked on revamping aspects of its Fremont facilities, including the paint shop, the area of the factory where its cars are painted.

  Musk also has ambitions for Tesla to mine its own lithium, domestically. And to ramp up production of Tesla’s own battery cells at a pilot plant also in Fremont.

  Besides these efforts, the company is in the midst of costly recalls and could face more-- whether voluntary or mandatory. Most significantly of these voluntary recalls, in China and in the US, Tesla is recalling Model S and X vehicles experiencing touchscreen display failures.

  --Jessica Bursztynsky contributed to this report.

  Correction: Tesla finished down 3.78% on Friday.

  提車費用

  多年來，首席執行官埃隆·馬斯克（Elon Musk）一直在控製成本。

  2020年12月，他在給全體特斯拉員工的電子郵件中寫道：“投資者為我們的未來盈利能力給了我們很多榮譽，但如果他們在任何時候得出結論認為這種情況不會發生，我們的股票將立即被壓垮。大錘下的蛋奶酥！”

  但與此同時，特斯拉正處於擴張期，將為此付出巨額代價。這家電動汽車製造商正在德國德克薩斯州奧斯汀市，德國勃蘭登堡州建立工廠，並擴大在中國的業務。該公司還著手改造其弗里蒙特工廠的各個方面，包括油漆車間，汽車塗漆的工廠區域。

  馬斯克還雄心勃勃，希望特斯拉在國內開採自己的鋰。並在同樣位於弗里蒙特的中試工廠提高特斯拉自己的電池組的產量。

  除了這些努力之外，該公司還處於昂貴的召回之中，並且可能面臨更多自願或強制性召回事件。在這些自願召回中，最重要的是，在中國和美國，特斯拉正在召回遇到觸摸屏顯示故障的Model S和X車輛。

  傑西卡·布爾斯汀斯基（Jessica Bursztynsky）為本報告做出了貢獻。

  修正：特斯拉週五收盤下跌3.78％。