https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jZD0IWId6kI
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0:00 With this structural shift, you could argue in the bond market, what is it 0:05 pricing in? I mean, yeah, the the definitely another 0:11 hike was was on the card but I think this morning was a probably you know, 0:15 quite key at least for us last night for hearing what what Mary just said. 0:21 I think it's true, though. I think for the U.S. 0:23 the long and is a much more important in tightening conditions that actually the 0:29 the shorter end. So I think there is a lot to be said 0:32 that as the curves deepens, it does help the Fed do some of that tightening 0:36 itself and may give a reason to to kind of wait and see. 0:40 And it does allow rates to stay high for longer without actually needing to move 0:44 it too much. So I thought that the statement was 0:46 actually very helpful. Right now. 0:51 I want to get your thoughts down on this inverted curve, because at its extreme, 0:55 as you would know, we were negative. Let's let's use it using the terms as an 0:59 example. You know, we were over a -100 basis 1:02 points in inverted. We're now at 31. 1:05 My first part of the question is when do you think there's an inverse? 1:10 And number two is this typically is an indication that the recession is behind 1:14 us, not ahead. Do you think the economy is now actually 1:18 improving in the US as a function of what the bond market is telling us? 1:23 I think that what we've learned this year is that the metrics that we've been 1:27 looking at in the past has actually not not worked out the way that we had in 1:31 terms of including the revision of the yield curve. 1:33 And I think what the U.S. economy is kind of showing us, and this 1:37 may be kind of quite important for both the Chinese and the and the Japanese to 1:44 be looking at is actually what these wage inflation inflation that we were 1:47 fearing the economy has actually not done that done so leads to a much more 1:52 resilient economy. So I think and I mean, this is kind of 1:56 this is a great situation for the Fed right now. 1:59 They've managed to kind of raise quite a lot of rates without cracking the 2:03 economy. There doesn't seem to be appear any 2:06 cracks. And when they have like sbv, they've 2:08 been able to manage it quite well. So actually, that leaves us should we 2:12 should give the Fed a bit of credibility for what they've managed to navigate for 2:16 us this year. Now, the the market, the bond market 2:19 itself, you know, that is a function of a more than just kind of what we 2:24 implied. There is still lots of technical 2:26 factors, including kind of long dated demand and stuff like that, which 2:30 actually also plays into the equation beyond just just expectations of of a 2:38 recession, etc.. There are also kind of other dynamics 2:40 that play well. 2:43 I wanted to ask you, there's one theory this week that part of why Treasuries 2:48 have been trading poorly was because China for years has been stepping back 2:53 its Treasury purchases. What do you think of that theory? 2:57 I mean, I think not only the not only the the the the China, but I saw other 3:05 for other central banks, too. 3:07 It is definitely you know, we've seen a much more resilience in the local 3:11 markets, a lot more emphasis even here in the region, on the local market as 3:14 well as just kind of the dollar. So I think that's a very long structural 3:19 trend which and it benefits the U.S. only when we have, you know, a real kind 3:25 of a confidence issue and the flight quality be otherwise that that 3:28 structural shift is moving away for for multiple reasons. 3:32 Right. So I think yes, I think that is 3:33 definitely a concern. And actually something that's happening 3:36 in Japan could be also quite interesting, too, in terms of them 3:39 trying to kind of bring capital back on shore for their own for their own 3:44 economy to be moving on to their kind of energy transition issues that they're 3:48 trying to deal with now. So there's a quite a lot of those other 3:52 dynamics beyond the traditional ones that we've been looking at, but last by 3:56 ten years. Yeah. 3:58 So I mean, whatever is driving the sell off, whether it's term premature trade, 4:02 positive technical or fundamental factors to you're you're still saying 4:05 it's hard not to be bullish right now when it comes to fixing up. 4:08 Just just give us the rationale behind that. 4:10 Yeah. And I think whatever's happened we've 4:13 made I mean, yes, there may be a few more highs, definitely. 4:17 And each reaching the near end. Right. 4:19 Is not going to be another whatever we face this year, we're not going to be 4:22 facing the same last year. And we've got through this year without 4:25 actually a very big crack in the U.S. economy. 4:28 And I think that should give other kind of a central basis, but be confident and 4:33 actually a bit of inflation is not that bad and it can be managed quite well. 4:36 I think the Fed was a bit behind the curve, but even that they've managed to 4:40 tackle it quite well without cracking the economy. 4:42 And this kind of should allow other central banks, including, I think, 4:46 hopefully the the DOJ to be more confident to actually release the the 4:52 the wise policy. 英文 全部來自 Bloomberg Television相關內容為你推薦最近上載
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0:00 隨著這種結構性轉變，你可能會在債券市場爭論，這是什麼？ 0:05 定價？我的意思是，是的，絕對是另一個 0:11 徒步旅行本來就在卡上，但我想今天早上可能你知道， 0:15 至少對我們昨晚來說，聽到瑪麗剛才所說的話非常關鍵。 0:21 不過我認為這是真的。我認為對於美國 0:23 長期而言，在緊縮條件下更為重要 0:29 較短的一端。所以我覺得有很多話要說 0:32 隨著曲線加深，它確實有助於聯準會採取一些緊縮措施 0:36 這本身可能會給我們一個觀望的理由。 0:40 它確實允許利率在更長時間內保持高位，而實際上不需要移動 0:44 太多了。所以我認為該聲明是 0:46 實際上非常有幫助。現在。 0:51 我想了解你對這條倒轉曲線的想法，因為在極端情況下， 0:55 如你所知，我們持否定態度。讓我們使用它來使用術語作為 0:59 例子。你知道，我們的基數超過了-100 1:02 點反轉。我們現在31。 1:05 我的問題的第一部分是你認為什麼時候會有逆？ 1:10 第二，這通常表示經濟衰退已經過去 1:14 我們，不領先。你認為現在的經濟實際上 1:18 根據債券市場告訴我們的訊息，美國是否有改善？ 1:23 我認為我們今年學到的是我們一直以來的指標 1:27 回顧過去，其實並沒有像我們以前那樣解決問題 1:31 包括殖利率曲線的修訂。 1:33 我認為美國經濟向我們展示了什麼 1:37 對中國人和日本人來說可能都非常重要 1:44 我們所關注的實際上是薪資通膨 1:47 擔心經濟實際上沒有做到這一點，這樣做會導致更多 1:52 有彈性的經濟。所以我想，我的意思是，這是一種 1:56 目前對於聯準會來說這是一個很好的情況。 1:59 他們已經成功地提高了相當多的利率，但沒有打破 2:03 經濟。似乎沒有出現任何 2:06 裂縫。當他們擁有像 sbv 這樣的東西時，他們就 2:08 能夠很好地管理它。所以實際上，我們應該 2:12 應該讓聯準會對他們所設法實現的目標有一點可信度 2:16 今年的我們。現在市場、債券市場 2:19 你知道，它本身不僅僅是我們所了解的東西的功能。 2:24 默示。還有很多技術含量 2:26 因素，包括長期需求之類的東西， 2:30 實際上也超越了對一個人的期望 2:38 經濟衰退等。還有其他一些動態 2:40 那個玩得好。 2:43 我想問你，本周有一個理論可以部分解釋為什麼國債 2:48 貿易表現不佳是因為中國多年來一直在退縮 2:53 其國債購買。你覺得這個理論怎麼樣？ 2:57 我的意思是，我認為不僅是中國，而且我還看到了其他國家 3:05 對於其他央行也是如此。 3:07 這絕對是你知道的，我們已經看到當地的恢復能力要強得多 3:11 市場，甚至在該地區也更加重視當地市場 3:14 以及美元。所以我認為這是一個很長的結構 3:19 只有當我們擁有一種真正的趨勢時，它才會對美國有利 3:25 信心問題和飛行品質否則 3:28 由於多種原因，結構性轉變正在消失。 3:32 正確的。所以我認為是的，我認為那就是 3:33 絕對是一個問題。實際上正在發生的事情 3:36 就它們而言，日本也可能很有趣 3:39 試圖將資本帶回岸上，為自己謀利 3:44 經濟將繼續解決他們正在解決的能源轉型問題 3:48 現在正在努力應對。所以還有很多其他的 3:52 超越我們一直在關注的傳統動態，但最後 3:56 十年。是的。 3:58 所以我的意思是，無論是什麼推動了拋售，無論是術語過早交易， 4:02 您仍在說對您有利的技術或基本面因素 4:05 當談到修復時，現在很難不樂觀。 4:08 請告訴我們背後的理由。 4:10 是的。我想無論發生什麼事我們都 4:13 我的意思是，是的，肯定還會有更多的高點。 4:17 每一個都到達了近端。正確的。 4:19 無論我們今年面臨什麼，都不會是另一個，我們不會 4:22 去年也面臨同樣的情況。我們已經度過了這一年 4:25 其實美國經濟出現了很大的裂痕。 4:28 我認為這應該為其他類型提供一個核心基礎，但要有信心並 4:33 事實上，一點點通貨膨脹並沒有那麼糟糕，而且可以很好地控制。 4:36 我認為聯準會有點落後了，但即便如此，他們還是設法做到了 4:40 在不破壞經濟的情況下很好地解決這個問題。 4:42 這種情況應該允許其他央行，我認為包括， 4:46 希望司法部更有信心真正釋放 4:52 明智的政策。 中文
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