DJ This ETF Will Benefit From Climate-Change Regulations -- Barrons.com
DJ這隻ETF將受益於氣候變化法規--Barrons.com
By Evie Liu
Climate change is real, it is the result of human activity, and much of the damage may be irreversible, according to the latest scientific assessment from the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, released this past week.
根據聯合國政府間氣候變化專門委員會上週發佈的最新科學評估，氣候變化是真實存在的，它是人類活動的結果，而且大部分損害可能是不可逆轉的。
This isn't news to many investors. Regulators and American corporations have been calling to put a dollar figure on the price of carbon-dioxide emissions, the biggest contributor to climate change. A new exchange-traded fund is poised to let investors participate in the increasingly robust market.
對於許多投資者來説，這並不是什麼新鮮事。監管機構和美國公司一直在呼籲對二氧化碳排放的價格設定一個美元數字，二氧化碳排放是氣候變化的最大貢獻者。一隻新的交易所交易基金(ETF)準備讓投資者參與日益強勁的市場。
As countries vow to reach net-zero carbon emissions in the next few decades, "cap and trade" programs are getting more traction. These programs limit, or cap, how much carbon dioxide each company can emit. Those that exceed the threshold will have to purchase extra permits from those that pollute less. The caps are expected to drop over years, which will reduce the supply of carbon permits and drive up prices. As it becomes more expensive to emit greenhouse gases, polluting companies should be motivated to cut emissions by transforming their business or developing new technologies.
隨着各國誓言在未來幾十年內實現淨零碳排放，“總量管制與交易”計劃正獲得更多的牽引力。這些計劃限制或限制每家公司的二氧化碳排放量。那些超過門檻的人將不得不從污染較少的人那裏購買額外的許可證。預計碳排放上限將在未來幾年內下降，這將減少碳排放許可的供應，並推高價格。隨着排放温室氣體的成本變得越來越高，污染企業應該受到激勵，通過轉變業務或開發新技術來減少排放。
Carbon cap-and-trade programs have been around for more than a decade but have languished due to low demand, whipsaw volatility, and poor liquidity. All that has improved recently, and will continue as these programs become more established.
碳排放限額與交易計劃已經存在了十多年，但由於需求低、波動性大和流動性差，一直萎靡不振。這一切最近都有所改善，並將隨着這些項目變得更加成熟而繼續下去。
The $579 million KraneShares Global Carbon ETF (ticker: KRBN), which launched a year ago, holds the most-traded carbon-credits futures contracts on major markets in Europe and the U.S. The fund has soared 84% since it started trading, currently reflecting a weighted carbon price of $37 per ton of carbon dioxide.
一年前推出的規模為5.79億美元的KraneShares Global Carbon ETF(代碼：KRBN)持有歐美主要市場交易量最大的碳信用期貨合約。自開始交易以來，該基金已飆升84%，目前反映的加權碳價格為每噸二氧化碳37美元。
The run-up was largely due to the passage of European Green Deal, says Trevor Sikorski, head of carbon research at consulting firm Energy Aspects: "It goes far beyond just some long-term goals -- it's now a very concrete set of proposals that would make the caps a lot harder to meet."
諮詢公司Energy Aspects的碳研究主管特雷弗·西科爾斯基(Trevor Sikorski)表示，這一漲勢在很大程度上是由於歐洲綠色協議(European Green Deal)的通過：“它遠遠超出了一些長期目標--現在是一套非常具體的提議，將使上限更難實現。”
Still, current prices are far below the level needed to accelerate a low-carbon transition fast enough. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development estimates that $147 per ton is needed by 2030 if the world hopes to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. That means more-aggressive policies are likely coming.
儘管如此，目前的價格仍遠低於足夠快地加速低碳轉型所需的水平。經濟合作與發展組織(Organization For Economic Cooperation And Development)估計，如果世界希望在2050年達到淨零碳排放，到2030年每噸需要147美元。這意味着可能會出台更激進的政策。
"These markets are designed to increase over time," says Eron Bloomgardenn of Climate Finance Partners, subadviser of the KraneShares ETF.
KraneShares ETF的副顧問、氣候金融合夥公司(Climate Finance Partners)的埃倫·布魯姆加登(Eron Bloomgardenn)表示：“這些市場旨在隨着時間的推移而增長。”
Policy tailwinds won't eliminate volatility, though. Economic cycles, the weather, and fluctuating prices in other energy commodities could all affect the carbon market's short-term price movements, says Ariel Perez, head of environmental products at commodities-trading firm Hartree Partners. Wider adoption of carbon-reducing technology could also drive down demand significantly, but that likely won't happen until prices reach a much higher level.
不過，政策順風不會消除波動性。大宗商品交易公司Hartree Partners的環境產品主管阿里爾·佩雷斯(Ariel Perez)説，經濟週期、天氣和其他能源大宗商品價格的波動都可能影響碳市場的短期價格走勢。更廣泛地採用碳減排技術也可能大幅壓低需求，但在價格達到更高水平之前，這很可能不會發生。
Institutional investors and hedge funds have used carbon futures as a diversifier due to their low correlation with traditional asset classes like stocks and bonds, says Luke Oliver, KraneShares' head of strategy.
KraneShares戰略主管盧克·奧利弗(Luke Oliver)表示，由於碳期貨與股票和債券等傳統資產類別的相關性較低，機構投資者和對衝基金已將碳期貨用作多元化投資工具。
Carbon futures can also be an efficient hedge against energy transition risk, says Perez: "If carbon prices go up, it will drag on the energy-intensive companies and increase the cost of living for all of us."
佩雷斯説，碳期貨還可以有效地對衝能源過渡風險：“如果碳價格上漲，它將拖累能源密集型公司，並增加我們所有人的生活成本。”
More carbon markets could be added to the KraneShares ETF if they reach size and liquidity requirements, creating a more-diversified portfolio. The U.K. market is expected to be added in November, Oliver told Barron's, and markets in South Korea and New Zealand are also under close watch.
如果KraneShares ETF達到規模和流動性要求，可能會增加更多的碳市場，創造更多元化的投資組合。奧利弗告訴Barron‘s，英國市場預計將在11月加入，韓國和新西蘭市場也在密切關注中。
China just launched its own carbon-trading plan last month, which could eventually become the largest carbon market in the world: There is a lot more carbon to capture, and a lot more upside to be realized.
中國上個月剛剛啟動了自己的碳交易計劃，最終可能成為世界上最大的碳市場：有更多的碳需要捕獲，還有更多的好處需要實現。
Write to Evie Liu at evie.liu@barrons.com
寫信給Evie Liu，電子郵件：evie.liu@Barrons.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
August 13, 2021 14:43 ET (18:43 GMT)
2021年8月13日東部時間14：43(格林尼治標準時間18：43)
Copyright (c) 2021 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
