2020年2月14日 星期五

拼多多可以成為您理想的成長型股票的3個原因

Pinduoduo (NASDAQ: PDD) is one of the three major e-commerce companies in China. Listed in July 2018, Pinduoduo has since delivered a respectable 84% return to its IPO investors, mainly driven by 123% revenue growth since its market debut.  But despite its strong recent performance, there are three good reasons to think that Pinduoduo is well-positioned to sustain its high growth rates into the future.

1. Solid execution

Founded in 2015,  Pinduoduo rose to its current prominence at an unprecedented pace. In less than five years, the company grew revenue from $0 to $3.5 billion  over the trailing 12 months thanks to its meteoric rise in gross merchandise value (GMV), which reached $117.5 billion for the 12 months ended Sept. 30, 2019.
That's phenomenal growth, especially when you consider that Alibaba (NYSE: BABA), the biggest e-commerce company in China, took nine years to surpass $100 billion in GMV. Another major competitor, JD.com (NASDAQ: JD), needed 13 years to reach that mark. Pinduoduo took only four years.

A smiling mother and daughter sit on a couch while shopping online with a smartphone in China.Pinduoduo succeeded in part by making shopping fun and easily accessible to anyone with a smartphone. Source: Pinduoduo.
Many factors  contributed to the company's success. Its mobile-first, social e-commerce strategy positioned the company well in serving Chinese consumers in the smartphone era. It also made online shopping fun by introducing various games to the shopping experience -- for example, customers can grow virtual farms to receive real fruits -- which allow it to attract and retain customers in a market with more than 1 billion smartphone connections .
In addition, its bulk-purchase model allows customers to invite friends and families to form groups to buy the products. The larger the group, the bigger the discount. This creates significant value for sellers, too, since larger groups of buyers mean bigger purchase orders.
Another important decision was its initial focus on smaller cities, avoiding main areas like Beijing and Shanghai. By doing so, it avoided competing against its larger, well-entrenched rivals in its early days.
Pinduoduo executed this growth plan beautifully in its first few years. If it can sustain this track record, Pinduoduo could become one of China's most successful tech companies.

2. Effective manangement

Pinduoduo's well-run leadership structure boasts three key components that have contributed to the company success.
First, founder, CEO, and chairman Huang Zheng has significant experience in the technology and business fields. Trained as a data scientist, he began his career at Google and was part of the team that established Google China. Before Pinduoduo, he had already founded two companies: an e-commerce platform and a game studio. This multidisciplinary experience, in my opinion, contributed significantly to the success of Pinduoduo. For example, Huang's expertise appears to have aided the company's success in integrating the aforementioned fun and games into online shopping, an important feat that few other e-commerce companies have imagined, much less attempted.
Secondly, Huang has surrounded himself with the necessary talents to run the business. For example, all three key management personnel have been working with him in his previous companies (the earliest since 2007). With support from his experienced team, Huang can better execute his vision and strategy in growing the company.
Thirdly, Huang has significant skin in the game through major share ownership. According to the company's 2018 annual report, he owns nearly 45% of Pinduoduo shares and 89% of the voting power.  That leaves him well-incentivized to grow the company over the long run, as opposed to taking shortcuts to maximize short-term benefits.

3. Ample financial resources

Another important factor that will allow Pinduoduo to sustain its growth trajectory is its solid financial standing.
As of Sept. 30, 2019, Pinduoduo had $2.2 billion in cash and cash equivalents, another $3.4 billion in short-term investments that are readily convertible into cash, and just $719 million in debt. The company did post a net loss of $1 billion over the trailing 12 months, as heavy investments in selling, general, and administrative expenses outpaced sales. But Pinduoduo also generated positive free cash flow of about $1.5 billion in the same period, suggesting a robust underlying business.
Given its healthy cash position, Pinduoduo has the necessary firepower to invest in and grow its business for the foreseeable future.

Big discounts for shoppers, big opportunity for investors

China's online retail shopping market  is expected to continue growing in the next few years, thanks to continued expansion in GDP and higher penetration of online shopping. Pinduoduo management has declined to offer estimates for how much it thinks the company might grow in the future. But as a leading e-commerce platform in China, the company looks well-positioned to ride on this e-commerce tailwind by capitalizing on its three crucial advantages. Thus, for investors looking for exposure to the growing e-commerce market in China, Pinduoduo seems worth exploring further.


Google Translation:


拼多多  (納斯達克股票代碼:PDD)是中國三大電子商務公司之一。自2018年7月上市以來,拼多多已經為其首次公開招股投資者帶來了可觀的84%的回報,主要是自上市以來收入增長了123%。但是,儘管近期表現強勁,但仍有三個充分的理由認為拼多多在未來保持高增長率的有利條件。

1.紮實執行

拼多多成立於2015年,以前所未有的速度崛起到現在。在不到五年的時間裡,由於其商品總價值(GMV)的迅猛增長,該公司在過去的12個月中將收入從0美元增加到35億美元,在截至2019年9月30日的12個月中達到了1175億美元。
這是驚人的增長,尤其是當您考慮到中國最大的電子商務公司阿里巴巴 (紐約證券交易所代碼:BABA)花了九年的時間才使GMV突破1000億美元。另一個主要競爭對手,京東(納斯達克股票代碼:JD),需要13年才能達到這一標準。拼多多只用了四年。
拼多多通過使購物變得有趣並使任何使用智能手機的人都可以輕鬆訪問而取得了部分成功。資料來源:拼多多。
許多因素促成了公司的成功。其移動優先,社交電子商務戰略使該公司在智能手機時代為中國消費者提供服務方面處於有利地位。通過在購物體驗中引入各種遊戲,它也使在線購物變得有趣-例如,客戶可以種植虛擬農場來獲得真正的果實-這使其可以吸引和留住擁有超過10億個智能手機連接的市場中的客戶。
此外,其批量購買模式允許客戶邀請朋友和家人組成小組來購買產品。組越大,折扣越大。這也為賣方創造了巨大的價值,因為更大的買方群體意味著更大的採購訂單。
另一個重要的決定是其最初的重點放在較小的城市,避免了北京和上海等主要地區。通過這樣做,它避免了在早期與大型,根深蒂固的競爭對手競爭。
拼多多在最初的幾年中就執行了這一增長計劃。如果能維持這一業績記錄,拼多多可能會成為中國最成功的科技公司之一。

2.有效管理

拼多多的良好領導結構擁有三個關鍵要素,這些要素為公司的成功做出了貢獻。
首先,創始人,首席執行官兼董事長黃政在技術和商業領域擁有豐富的經驗。他接受過數據科學家的培訓,開始了在Google的職業生涯,並且是建立Google中國團隊的一員。在拼多多之前,他已經建立了兩家公司:電子商務平台和遊戲工作室。我認為,這種多學科的經驗為拼多多的成功做出了巨大貢獻。例如,Huang的專業知識似乎幫助該公司成功地將上述娛樂和遊戲集成到了在線購物中,這是其他電子商務公司很少想到的一項重要成就,而嘗試次數卻很少。
其次,黃光裕擁有經營業務所需的人才。例如,三位主要管理人員一直在他以前的公司中與他合作(最早於2007年)。在他經驗豐富的團隊的支持下,Huang可以更好地執行他的願景和戰略以發展公司。
第三,黃通過主要股份擁有重要的皮膚。根據該公司2018年年度報告,他擁有近40%的拼多多股份和89%的投票權。從長遠來看,這使他有動力去發展公司,而不是採取捷徑來最大化短期利益。

3.充足的財政資源

允許拼多多維持其增長軌蹟的另一個重要因素是其雄厚的財務實力。
截至2019年9月30日,拼多多擁有22億美元的現金和現金等價物,另有34億美元的易於轉換為現金的短期投資,以及僅7.19億美元的債務。該公司在過去的12個月中確實錄得10億美元的淨虧損,這是因為在銷售,一般和管理費用上的大量投資超過了銷售。但是拼多多在同一時期也產生了約15億美元的正自由現金流,這表明其基礎業務強勁。
憑藉其健康的現金狀況,拼多多擁有在可預見的未來投資和發展其業務的必要火力。

為購物者提供大折扣,為投資者提供大機會

得益於GDP的持續增長和在線購物的更高普及率,預計中國的在線零售購物市場將在未來幾年繼續增長。拼多多管理層拒絕就其認為該公司未來的增長額提供估計。但是,作為中國領先的電子商務平台,該公司通過利用其三大關鍵優勢,看起來可以很好地利用這一電子商務順風車。因此,對於那些希望接觸中國不斷增長的電子商務市場的投資者而言,拼多多似乎值得進一步探索。 
與Pinduoduo Inc.相比,我們更喜歡10支股票。
當投資天才時,David和Tom Gardner都有股票提示,可以傾聽。畢竟,他們運行了十多年的時事通訊Motley Fool Stock Advisor將市場增加了三倍。*

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