©路透社。文件圖片：人們在弗吉尼亞州費爾法克斯的早期投票站投票
Wall Street Week Ahead: Trump-Biden debate could spark stock volatility
By Noel Randewich
(Reuters) - Some U.S. stocks could face more volatility next week as President Donald Trump and rival Joe Biden face off in their first debate ahead of a November election that betting services currently view as almost a coin flip.
A strong performance in Tuesday's debate by Biden, who currently has a modest lead in betting odds and polls, might boost stocks related to global trade and renewable energy, while a perceived debate victory by Trump could benefit fossil fuel and defense companies.
The first of three scheduled debates comes at a fraught moment on Wall Street.
The S&P 500 has tumbled 10% from record highs in recent weeks as investors worry about a prolonged recovery from the coronavirus and uncertainty related to the Nov. 3 vote, including the possibility of a delay in announcing a winner.
If one candidate emerges stronger on Tuesday, "the debate could be an individual stock and sector play," said Jack Ablin, Chief Investment Officer at Cresset Wealth Advisors.
"For example, I think life under Biden would be a lot simpler for Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) than life under Trump," Ablin said, referring to Trump's trade conflict with China.
Individual stocks and other assets have been susceptible to market moves as a result of debates, even as broader markets have generally shrugged them off.
The Sept. 26, 2016 debate between Trump and Hillary Clinton, for example, sparked a 2% surge in the Mexican peso , as well as moves in oil, gold and Treasuries, according to a University of Michigan and Dartmouth College study.
Many investors view Biden as more likely to raise taxes, and see a second term for Trump, who favors deregulation, as better for the overall stock market. At the same time, a Trump win could spark concerns over ramped up tensions between Washington and Beijing.
With expectations of a delayed vote count, the options market shows investors are bracing for volatility in November and December. Trump declined on Wednesday to commit to a peaceful transfer of power if he loses, and said he expected the election battle to end up before the Supreme Court.
Adding to political uncertainty, betting websites are offering odds giving Biden a 53% chance of beating Trump, down from as much as 61% in early August, according to RealClearPolitics.
A Biden win could boost the S&P 500 (SPX) by about 1% the following day, while a Trump re-election would push the index down about 4%, according to an analysis by Cornerstone Macro based on a statistical comparison of recent asset prices and election betting odds.
"A possible interpretation of this result is that markets have increasingly priced in a Biden win and view the alternative as posing some risks, possibly stemming from potential escalating trade tensions or similar factors," Cornerstone Marco wrote.
Gullane Capital Partners LLC, a hedge fund in Memphis, Tennessee, is focusing on each presidential candidate's likely effect on specific stocks it owns, rather than what each candidate might mean for Wall Street as a whole, said Managing Partner Trip Miller.
"Biden is good for some of our businesses, like solar, and Trump is better for some of our other businesses that benefit from lighter regulation," Miller said.
UBS in a report this week predicted that a second term for Trump would have little effect on healthcare. On the other hand, a Biden victory would lead to only modest changes, rather than a major overhaul of health insurance, even if Democrats took control of the Senate.
"We believe that the rhetoric on changes to healthcare policy exceeds the reality of what can be accomplished," UBS analysts wrote.
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諾埃爾·蘭德威奇（Noel Randewich）
路透社）-美國總統唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）和競爭對手喬·拜登（Joe Biden）在11月大選之前的首次辯論中面臨對峙，下周美國股市可能會面臨更大的波動。
拜登在星期二的辯論中表現強勁，目前在賠率和民意測驗中處於適度領先地位，這可能會增加與全球貿易和可再生能源相關的股票，而特朗普認為這場辯論的勝利可以使化石燃料和國防公司受益。
預定的三場辯論中的第一場是在華爾街一個緊要關頭。
標普500指數已從最近幾週的歷史高位下跌了10％，這是因為投資者擔心冠狀病毒會長期復蘇以及與11月3日投票有關的不確定性，其中包括推遲宣布獲勝者的可能性。
Cresset Wealth Advisors的首席投資官傑克·阿布林（Jack Ablin）說，如果一個候選人在周二變得更強勢，那麼“辯論可能是個股票和一個行業的問題。”
“舉個例子，我覺得拜登下生活會簡單得多蘋果：（NASDAQ AAPL特朗普下）高於生活，”阿伯林說，指的特朗普與中國的貿易衝突。
辯論的結果使個人股票和其他資產容易受到市場變動的影響，即使更廣泛的市場普遍將其忽略了。
例如，2016年9月26日，特朗普和希拉里·克林頓之間的辯論引發了墨西哥比索飆升2％ , 根據密歇根大學和達特茅斯學院的一項研究，以及石油，黃金和國債的走勢。
許多投資者認為拜登（Biden）更有可能提高稅收，並且認為支持放鬆管制的特朗普第二任期對整個股市而言更好。同時，特朗普的勝利可能引發人們對華盛頓和北京之間緊張關係加劇的擔憂。
預期投票數會延遲，期權市場顯示出投資者在11月和12月承受波動。特朗普週三拒絕承諾如果他輸了，將和平進行權力移交，並表示他預計選舉之戰將在最高法院面前結束。
根據RealClearPolitics的數據，博彩網站增加了政治不確定性，賠率使拜登有53％的機會擊敗特朗普，低於8月初的61％。
根據基石·宏（Cornerstone Macro）根據近期資產價格的統計比較得出的分析結果，拜登的獲勝可能會使標準普爾500指數（SPX）在第二天上漲約1％，而特朗普連任將使該指數下跌約4％。和選舉的賠率。
Cornerstone Marco寫道：“對此結果的一種可能解釋是，市場已在拜登的勝利中定價越來越高，並認為替代方案帶來了一些風險，可能是由於潛在的貿易緊張局勢升級或類似因素所致。”
田納西州孟菲斯的對沖基金Gullane Capital Partners LLC正在關注每位總統候選人對它所擁有的特定股票的可能影響，而不是每一位候選人對華爾街整體的意義。
米勒說：“拜登對我們的某些業務有利，例如太陽能，而特朗普對我們的其他一些較寬鬆監管受益的業務則更好。”
瑞銀（UBS）本週在一份報告中預測，特朗普第二任期對醫療保健影響不大。另一方面，即使民主黨人控制了參議院，拜登的勝利也只會導致適度的變化，而不是對醫療保險的重大改革。
瑞銀（UBS）分析師寫道：“我們認為，改變醫療保健政策的言論超出了可以實現的現實。”
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